Ok thanks for the info I am getting more and more interested.
I am beginning to think we need a nice mix of technical and fundamental. I am still on the latter but every time I think that, market sentiment and rational (or lack thereof) seem to take over. In University, way back when, they thought us that one of the premises was that market was rational and had all the information to make informed decision. I don't believe that market are rational on the short term... maybe on the long term.
Hence the technical analysis...

Lard

Thanks Putz. So if I understand correctly, any leap over resistance creates a gap which needs to be touch back down again in order to move back up? ( in a simplistic way)?

Lard

By the way, what's the fuss about ground freezing????????? Quebec and Ontario, in Canada for those geographically challenged :) :) already have ground freezing. Minus 14 this morning and minus 24 with the windchill factor. If this was to move to Nebraska we'd be ahead of the game :) :)

Lard

Putz, and all the chartists, reading your projection is very informative. You might not be right all of the time but your batting average is not bad at all. You guys even give me the idea of taking a few courses myself on the matter. I have to comply with a minimum of hours of professional development every year anyways.

Spunk and you made it clear that we need consolidation and such and such.AND THAT IS OK. We should not worry, so I won't. I never do with Niocorp on the short term.

Would any (or all) chartists care to make a projection for the immediate future? I won't hold you to much too it, cause I won't sell any share now and I can't buy any more anyways.


Lard

Oh I totally agree with you. At this point its guesstimate at its best.
And because of that I try not to rely too too much on the short term. Although we have had some good achievement, we still need to build a mine and sell this stuff before money comes in the bank account and we turn a profit. I have full confidence the management will succeed, but let's define success.. :)

A few unknown for me:

What the financial package will be. (A real amount)
When will we start construction.(A real date)
When will we start selling those 3 products. (A real date)
Scandium market: If we built it, they will come (like Kevin Costner) I believe so but when? (a real date) at what price (a real dollar amount)

We have assumption, which is what we needed. I like confirmation. Any ''would, could, should'' does not weight much.

Does it show that I am an accountant?? :)

Again I reiterate I have full trust in management and I will get my confirmation in due time. I am a very patient man.

Lard

That being said, I still expect a solid increase in the share price. Which analyst had a buy rate with a target price of 1.20cda? A target price is for an horizon of one year. That rating was establish by them almost a year ago. (February I think). Getting there!!


Lard

I don't believe it's the funding that will bring it to 5$. It's the confirmation of revenues. After a year of sales, everything will be known and the basis for those price to earning ratios and expected dividends established.

By the way don't get me wrong, I would love for no more dilution. I just don't see it possible given that they would have to respect a certain debt/equity ratio.

Lard

And I will add using very round figures.
You double the amount of outstanding share therefore you cut the NPV by half to around a 5 USD a share or around 6.5$ CDA. That's a 10 bagger from last week share price in 3.5 to 4 years. Not bad.... Not bad at all.....

Lard

You are absolutely right.(respectfully)

Nothing definitive has happened so far. It does not mean that NOTHING happened.

I see that very similar as a LOI Letter of intend. Lets say a company offers to buy another one. Although they might agree at the beginning that this offer could work out , most of the time it does not. So you need lots iteration and/or lots of other LOI. Both party could be optimistic at the beginning and things might not work out for a variety of valid reasons.
Niocorp would be in a lot of trouble just because of the delay of it if they would have alluded to a done deal in financing.

Lard.

Just to contradict my previous message :) :).

I guess he could'nt help himself..

I admit I still liked his last comment.

Do you think he saw my comment? (just kidding)

Lard

I think that so far Scott is more solid in this presentation than the previous one.
We might not like all the answers, but they are way less ambiguous than before.

Scott sounds very upbeat whereas Mark did not talk a lot. (maybe on the legal counsel advice?)

Lard.

But Landmark,
If the company buys half the share at 8.00$, that a billion dollars to find. Or four years cash flow. So nope, not a overnight thing. and it will not and cannot happen.


270 millions share in half = 130 000 000 shares. @ 8$
that's $ 1 040 000 000.00

Lard

That would be a very bad strategic move. Not that I am that much against another private placement, but it would bring cynicism to any further NR.
If there is a need for another PP, it won't be before end of August-September. Why annonce it right after a good NR?
The thing about another PP is the extended time it signals. I don't care for the amount of dilution it brings. I fully expect the float to have double when we'll be in production.

Lard

But Toronto Pete, This is what I don't get. If management is experienced at this, they know it will take time. Apparently lots of it...Why go with a private placement only half the usual size? The hurting would not have been any more greater and the sp would be at the level way are right now anyways. But with more money in the bank account.

So I am still in the view that there will not be another pp

Lard.

Thanks for the quick reconciliation NEgoodlife.
Maybe some of us accountant should write more like Boilermaker.
He write on technical and really drills down. We should drill down on the accounting.

Lard

Good morning all,
I did not look at the numbers but to answer the question between expenses and cash flow and paiment, I'll provide a cut and paste:

''The difference between cash and accrual accounting lies in the timing of when sales and purchases are recorded in your accounts. Cash accounting recognizes revenue and expenses only when money changes hands, but accrual accounting recognizes revenue when it's earned, and expenses when they're billed (but not paid).''

Accounting standard dictate that we must use accrual basis accounting for our reporting.

If we were to use cash basis, it would mean that has long as you delay payment, the expense (the work done) would not be accounted for nor would be the liability. It would give an inaccurate image.


More info if you google : accounting cash basis vs accrual
Lard

By the way, just to tell a short story:
I work as a CFO for a start up company and of course I look for financing...I go for the loans because we do not want to share the ownership. (ring a bell????)
Here are the answer from the banks almost in order:
Walter you should have a laugh out of this:

We can't lend you because you are to early in your development, you should try love money

Next

We can't land you because you are not making any profit: (hello Sherlock, I spent a million $ in R&D that I cannot put in my Balance sheet)
Bank: OK I get that... but you are not making any profit...

Next
OK Now I make profit: Can you lend me money Please!!!!! just for one payroll...

Bank: We cannot because your debt/equity ratio is to low....
OK I'll negotiate with the love money lender to convert into preferred shares.

Bank : those will be classified as debt anyway...
Me: Dear Lord....

Me again: Ok Bank can we talk again

Bank: Sure Just give us our financial statements for the past 3 years and your forecast for the nest 3 years

Me: BUT I AM A START UP!!!!!...My growth could be 300% in revenue or be down 15% I don't know, I am launching a product and I don't have a crystal ball.

Bank: Ok we get that. Just provide with you in-house financial statements. (a month later: ) nope' we'd like to have a drat audited financial statements...

Good morning Mister CFO; we are waiting for the FINAL SIGNED financials statements... whenever they are ready.....

Me: I need 2 more months....

THIS IS THE REALITY of dealing with bank.


Lard

Boilermaker, I like your assessment. It is the true test and that's why I said the decision to be invested in a stock is a daily one.


We are at the early stage and we have lots or potential.
Lets just make the parallel with real estate: Would you buy a piece of land with no building 10 times what its worth with the intend of building something on it? Because it has great potential. ??? No! if you are the one incurring the cost of realizing the potential, then you pay for just the bare minimum for the land.AND you try to get a loan to realize the potential. (hence the big F) But if you can't get the big F, you put out more money (hence the private placement and other shares offering).

That's why our SP is low.
We have tons and tons of potential (really tons of potential:) ) but in order to make it a reality we still need to put out 1 billion on dollars (give or take).

Lard

I agree with the latter as well because the effect on the sp today would have been the same either for 1.2 M$ or 2.4 M$. So if MS thought he needed 6 months to go he would have gone for the 2.4 M $ That's why I think the summer won't be that long. But that is only speculation on my part.

Lard

Tante Duracel, I cannot give you a precise answer as my expectations evolve.
But here is what I keep as basic calculation: For the record I have been in since beginning 2013 and I bought some at 1.35$.
If we can't get finance, somebody will buy it. MS may not want it, between this and loosing all his money he will say yes.

But that is more my insurance back up than my plan.

Since an analyst put this at 1.20$ CDA a year from now, it mean double or 100% rate of return (again from now not 2013. My decision to stay in or out is a daily one.)
It is derisked (so I heard).
So, if a year from now I make 100% return, it will be the equivalent of putting my money at 6 % for 12 year.That's a baseline.

Another expectation: I expect dilution. I know this will happen. My own personal baseline? We will double the float.Some poster we scream and shout but that is my answer to your question. And Why am I OK with this?

Because from memory we talked about an earning per share of 1$ earlier.
If you double the float you'll get .50 cents per share. price/earning ratio of 10 and you get to 5 Dollars.. Hey that's a 9 bagger at the current price. Even in 5 years which I think will be much sooner, is that really so bad? Really?? 900 hundred % in 5 years and that's not good enough?

That's why my expectation are a tad lower.:)

Lard

''After some sellers that are disappointed because Big F is not revealed today''
As of today, it was easy to predict that this would not been announce during the conference: There was no halt trading.

Equal chances for everyone, current shareholder or not and current seller or potential buyer.

Lard

And if MS cannot bring this project to a successful conclusion, there will be a buyout offer. So I am not worried. Also, I believe my expectations are lower than most on this board.

Lard

I respectfully disagree. 1.2 millions of a private placement won’t get us thru summer. That’s why I believe MS when he said it was intentional. I usually don’t do reading between the lines but this time I do.

Lard

German Loan is still valid but they may not use it.

Lard

As expected :
Cannot say update on financing.

Last PP to keep tp lights on until financing
Intentional that it be small.
He emphasized on the small dilution on the PP



Lard

I am listening to the presentation:
Army Corp of engineers is busy with emergency permits because of the flood our request would have been put on the side as not urgent. Kudoo's to them for this decision. This would have been a major delay.

Lard

And if we use 5 USD = 7 CDN as your lowball figure, going from 0.65 to 7.00$ give us and 80% rate of return a year for four year. Not bad considering that the average mutual fund will provide 8%. That's why I still think this stock will make me happy.

Lard

Thanks for this analysis.
I concord with your low number When in prod.
And I base my evaluation by doubling the actual number of outstanding share. To me, it's a given that the float will double. I thought so from day one.
I am very very roughly coming to 1$ per year dividend given the actual number of the FS and increasing the float to at least 500 millions outstanding.

Lard

Done as well,
Thank you very much for this Sagittarius. It put lots of perspective on what the group thinks.

One comment tough, I am very surprised of the very low level of dividends people are thinking it will reach. You guys read that it was per year right?

You cannot expect a mining company paying such a low level of dividends (0.15-0.50 cents a share) and yet be priced at 20$ CDA let alone 30 or 40 . We don't have the result of sp when in production but there was some numbers throwned in some discussion.

When a company reach the dividend level, you can certainly use the price to dividend ratio (as for any public company)and if we use a factor of 12 on a 0.15 or even 0.25 cents dividends, that puts us at 3 bucks cda. A bit (quite a bit too low for the SP)
Just my 2 cents.

Lard

You Wrote: ''I also believe we would have seen some management exits if things were not going well''.

Ohhh That is such a very very good observation!!!. Either those who are scared, or those who are incompetent would be gone since 2014.

Nobody jumped ship, any new on board is a grade A+ person. We are in good hands.


Lard

Out of the 5 000 shares sold so far, I account for 3 000. Although I did not want to add, Although I looked at other shares going up. This is one investment I now know and am comfortable with. I tell myself IF they can't get financing they will get bought out. MS cannot use private placement many more times. Something is bound to happen in a positive way......

Good luck to all.

Lard

You forgot a forth one..
Those who are seasoned realistic experienced investors who cannot be bothered to answer everytime someones put the share price at 70$ right after financing news or put the share price at .60 cents cdn in 5 years from now.

Lard

NR are also intended for new investors.
Thanks for this reminder Magic. I really needed this as I was thinking they could have said something ''I'' don't already know. But you are right NR are also intended for new investors.
I am realistic about my investment (I think) but like eveybody, I'd like to see us above 1$ right now.

Lard.

Thanks for the advice AO.:)
I just picked 2000 more...even though I said I would not buy any more shares and I would not chase the share price.
I am always very wary about getting friends and family into a stock. We might not have the same tolerance to risk and the same tolerance to delay.
I am very very VERY confortable with both....unfortunately, not everyone see thing my way.....

To all of those who are reasonnable and realistic about the share price, I am pretty sure you will be very very VERY happy by end of 2018. To those who wish 10$ by year end 2018... I d say. don't hold your breath too much.....you are asking for a 17 bagger for a company that will not have any revenues by then...

Patientman

Welcome to the club Growthmindset.

Its always a bit scary when you have that many share and its start to tank. but think of this: Any upside of one penny is a thousand bucks in more in value of your portfolio. I like the round numbers.

I added some at 45 recently and will add more if I get some liquidity available.

I am pretty sure its tax loss season and some expectations were wayyyyyyy too high. Its a mine, well, its was a mine, now its a mine with a metal processing plan this is not some virtual bitcoin type of business that if you bet on the right horse you get rich overnight. As I said before, there is nobody that will be running after MS with bags full of money saying Oh please take my money. If you need six month to grow a crop, you need 7 years to built a mine. That's the reality. Anybody who thought 6$ us by november 2017 even with the rosy glasses timeline from Mark Smith was just day dreaming.

Lard

There is....
As they say in the highlights, there is for 109 millions of contingency. That is a lot of wiggle room.


Lard

I agree with you.
I don't expect much to happen on the 15 precisely aside for the filing of stuff we already know.
The real negotiation will start at that point.

Lard

Well I think somebody decided to save the day.
I see 32 500 at .66 at end of day on TSX.


Lard

So you think that Shorts are covering their positions?

Btw, just because I like round numbers I picked up 2000 earlier today. at .65

Lard

So you think that Shorts are covering their positions?

Btw, just because I like round numbers I picked up 2000 earlier today. at .65

Lard

Retiring in Canada.
Just a piece of knowledge

Depending on you lifestyle, you can retire with 35 000 revenue a year. It could not be Vancouver or Toronto, but it can be just besides Ottawa or, for those who prefer French, Sherbrooke Qc, is 150 000 people city, at least 3 hospital (free health care), 2 University, how many college?, 2 rivers (real ones), countless lakes, and forest. 20km-15miles from there is Memphremagog lake where the 5-10 millions $ cottages are.

Granted you don't travel the world every year on that revenu but what if you dont like want to travel. But you eat filet mignon everytime you want.

Retirement planners are trying to convice people that they need 4-5 millions to retire. That's why people are stressed about retirement.

K I am done

Lard