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So far this is about all the upside I predicted for the day. A test toward the $52 level and specifically into the $51.7X or $51.8x range. We'll see if that holds true through NYMEX and market closes. IOW, I'm calling this the long side sell point for the day.
That wouldn't be very efficient. I assume that these prices are near the money. Selling that call caps your earnings and the strategy starts net debit anyway. If you expect volatility, then buying the calls and puts outright should pay better.
lol.Yeah,*when* it's working!
??? I'm confused.What underlying ticker?FWIW, I don't sell/write often. I am usually long/buyer of options.
Thanks! Just lucky.
I'm game. I'm always making predictions. Right or wrong, one can always learn from the outcome.
Back in Feb (2/25), my 'long term' post 3/15 fed move view for 2017 was:
WTI: Down to mid-low $40s and rebound, maybe up towards $60.
Precious metals: Generally up
DXY: Target 90.X
TLT: Down to the meeting, then generally up
DJIA: 22,000+ (this is actually an old prediction, from 2015)
Loaded up for the downside. Hedges mostly otm now. IF I'm wrong, I wanna be BIG wrong! Good luck guys!
Decent for small chop trading today. Could be capitulation of the short covering. Expecting more whip and volatility through the API EIA report cycle.
Bought more near the close after doubling up on spreads.
Last week action was still short covering as I expected. Still more short fuel for higher, but MM also still heavy on spreads so expect some whip action ahead.
Call protection paying between 2x-8x today.Sold and rolled for put heavy spreads.
"OPEC Talks End Without Recommendation On Output Cut Extension"
http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/OPEC-Talks-End-Without-Recommendation-On-Output-Cut-Extension.html
By Tsvetana Paraskova - Sep 22, 2017, 9:19 AM CDT
The OPEC/non-OPEC joint panel on monitoring the cuts, which is meeting in Vienna today, has concluded talks without any recommendation for the broader group on whether it will extend the production cuts beyond March next year, one OPEC delegate told Bloomberg at the end of the meeting.
The monitoring committee, which consists of OPEC’s Kuwait, Venezuela, and Algeria, as well as non-OPEC Russia and Oman, was also expected to discuss a proposal to consider informal monitoring of crude oil exports, in addition to supervising compliance to production cuts.
At the time of writing, OPEC had not yet issued the official statement on the state of the oil market, but ministers at the meeting said that the cuts were clearing the glut, Reuters reports.
“Since our last meeting in July, the oil market has markedly improved,” Kuwait’s Oil Minister Essam al-Marzouq said in an opening speech at the panel meeting that he is chairing. “The market is now evidently well on its way toward rebalancing,” the minister said.
Al-Marzouq also said that Libya and Nigeria—which were invited to take part in the meeting—would contribute to the supply cut deal once their output stabilizes, the Financial Times reports.
In an interview with Bloomberg, Nigeria’s Oil Minister Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu reiterated that Nigeria would accept a cap only when its production fully stabilizes. When Nigeria’s output reaches a consistent level of 1.8 million bpd, “we will basically place a cap on ourselves,” Kachikwu said, a careful statement that would not beholden it to the cartel.
Related: How Mexico’s Energy Reform Will Impact The U.S.
Alexander Novak, the Energy Minister of Russia and leader of the non-OPEC group part of the deal, said that some of the world’s largest oil producers had discussed a possible extension, even in the face of evidence that the cuts have finally started to work. However, it’s still too early to make any formal decision to extend the deal, Novak noted.
“I believe that January is the earliest date when we can actually, credibly speak about the state of the market,” the FT quoted Novak as telling reporters.
According to ZeroHedge, Novak said that the best timing to end the pact would be when demand is high.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
Oil rigs -5 to 744. +326 YoY from 418
I'm thinking that's gotta be the case for refined products. Haven't done the research though...
Demand isn't really up. But they need to do something to prevent a massive tank. Gulf refining was down 1/3 last report week. much of it still off line as of yesterday's report. Inventories for crude will likely breach new highs for this time of year. I'm thinking it'll be a wild ride tomorrow.
HAHAHAHA. And yeah, it's all over the MSM 'oil news'.
Didn't miss it...likely another 'sell the news' OPEC event.
Chickened out.Cashed the rest today.
No,not 3 or 4. Just today. Monday was for Nov, but not Oct contract.
That's what I say!
Today is forming a 'black candle' on WTI so far...15 mins to go...we'll see!
Agreed and thanks! Only small green for me trading the chop today. T+2 making it so much easier to keep settled cash around.
Nice move to the close.
Just a little hedge could've kept you in the green...
Yeah,agreed.I still realize that once the consolidation is done, this could go either way!
Cue that DUMP!
Just like this...up before the report. Spike up then down. We'll see!
Exactly. Just hope to be right about the direction when the spread returns...
Bought some before the report.Hoping report reaction creates better buying opportunity.
Perfect. Good opportunity for tomorrow.
Anything that lets you compare both simultaneously over the last 2-3 years. There is no one best timeframe. Also know that Brent contracts roll at different times now. They used to be on the same calendar. Not anymore.
Look at history for the answer.
I think it's being propped up. WTI isn't as easy. The big spread between the two can't be maintained for very long.
Yes, the dump is here.
Yesterday was first day after option expiry (oct contract). Most charts also showing November yesterday.
Cashed some +$9s and +$15s. Holding some for higher. Love this SVXY cash cow.
MM spreads are up and the short pressure is 'on'. Sales on the long side of the spread can easily cause a tank. The opposite is somewhat true, but I doubt it. previous push up has, IMO, failed. MM ready to tank anytime in the coming weeks.
UCO has rolled to nov by last wed, 9/13. everything else by Thurs.