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LM$20AO
Everybody knows how closely PPS tracks
and after having reported :
*In Q4 2014, compared to the same quarter last year, revenue decreased 10%, to $15.6 million and gross margin was down 53 percentage points, to (19%), resulting in Adjusted EBITDA of ($16.1) million
•Q4 Adjusted EBITDA was ($16.1) million; full year Adjusted EBITDA declined 128%, to ($18.6) million. •Adjusted EBITDA was impacted in Q4 by lower gross margin as well as by impairment charges of $6.2 million related to accounts receivable.
•Q4 net income was ($17.5) million or ($0.13) per share; full year net income was ($28.2) million or ($0.22) per share, declines of 41% and 11%, respectively
Ballard's share price is down almost 10% this AM in premarket trading, and both Plug and FCEL are down 2%
Other FC stocks earnings release dates
FYI
BLDP - yesterday after market close (and they were NOT good)
FCEL - 03/11
CPST - no date set, but Q3 2015 results (to 12/31) released 02/05
PLUG - 02/26, no, scratch that, 03/17
Ballard's results are so bad it looks like the deal with VW is the equivalent of burning the axe handle to keep the fire going. (It should be noted, however, that the ONLY significant bright spot on the revenue side of the results is the material handling segment through sales to PLUG.)
If FCEL turns in its' typically dismal performance on the 11th I would not be surprised to see PLUG in the range of $2.25 to $2.50 before the earnings release on the 17th.
If PLUGs results turn it in to a fuel cell dismal trifecta Andy Left's (Citron Research) prediction of the value of PLUG's shares may be overly optimistic.
For your convenience here is a link to Ballard's results :
http://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/ballard-reports-q4-full-year-2014-results--2015-outlook-20150225-01467
and to the press release for the Fuel Cell earnings call :
http://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/fuelcell-energy-inc-announces-first-quarter-financial-results-conference-call-on-march-11-2015-at-20150225-00484
That's Andy for ya!
The reason why he under delivered on his promise this time (no release on February 26th), was so that he would not overpromise and under deliver in a much grander fashion on the financial results.
It's like those nesting Russian dolls, or an Escher painting of the hand drawing the hand drawing the other hand drawing that hand....
Yep! I just hope that Andy makes up for it when the results do come out, 'cause my calls became worthless the instant that press release came out.
I just wish that I had imagined this...
But my brokerage account balance and a quick listen to the January 28th conference call just keep pulling me back to reality.
Sadly Digre, I fully admit that you are absolutely correct that no one should have been surprised.
But just for the sake of my future sanity the "just in the air" that I heard was at time index 02:41 on the January 28th business update call where Andy Marsh spoke the following words :
"On February 26th we will be having our fourth quarter's earnings call. I hope everyone can join in then also to hear the detailed financials for 2014."
A link to the presentation is provided below :
https://event.webcasts.com/viewer/event.jsp?ei=1052716
I hope you're right, I fear you're wrong
I went back through the January business update call and made a few notes.
Looming VERY large among those notes is one about a comment from Paul Middleton regarding a previously disclosed litigation accrual for $3M effecting the Q3 and Q4 results.
In the last 10-Q that was filed there was a $2.4M accrual relating to a lawsuit from Soroof, a Saudi FC distributor wannabe that coughed up a cool million in 2008 to a Plug Power/GE JV shell company just for the rights to sell FC products there.
My understanding is as follows :
-when products were not forthcoming Soroof sued the JV, Plug, and GE and along the way were able to get at least one judgment which pierced the corporate veil of the worthless shell company, which was overturned in a subsequent judgment
-in October of last year Plug came to an out of court settlement of $1M with Soroof, after which
-GE piled on seeking $1M from Plug for legal costs associated with it's defence against Soroof's actions
As of the Q3 report last year the accrual was $2.4 M accounted for in Q3, by January 28th it was $3M and effecting Q3 and Q4 results. My take away is that there is no reasonable basis upon which to expect containment on this issue.
So on the plus side we have some pictures of lumber and running shoes, and on the minus side we have no profit, litigation accruals which seem to be increasing every time someone speaks, a blown off promise date for release of results, reduced revenue projections, no release of the names of the new customers...
Oops, sorry, I forgot one on the plus side - yet again ANOTHER promise of positive EBITDA results yet again ANOTHER year down the road.
There just seems to be no end of smoke to blow up everyone's and anyone's ...
Hoping that today's foolishness does not start another round of litigation - still long with greatly reduced exposure,
canadajim
As always this is just my opinion - I recommend you be diligent in doing your own due diligence before making any investment decision.
If you have calls that expire on Friday...
because someone told you that the results would be out on Thursday
you really don't have a lot of time with which to "hang in"
My faint hope (beyond my shares and March calls) is that Home Depot will make some kind of announcement re. Plug Power today.
P.S. I was able to get while the getting was still good with minimal losses on my $3 contracts, my $3.50's on the other hand are looking like a complete write off
Today is two days before the earnings report
I do believe that one day before earnings is the time for the CFO to resign, but two days before it is most definitely the CEO who should go.
BUSH LEAGUE - Andy STILL wonders why were PO'ed
I thought that there might be some nightmare rabbit pulled out of a hat at the perennial Plug Power dog and pony show that is the earnings release event - maybe the new CFO disappears, maybe Andy says (AGAIN) 'I increased sales, why are you guys so worried about profits?', but I did not expect to pull in to the parking lot and find the circus tent torn down and a scarecrow dressed up as a clown with a sign pinned to it's chest saying March 17th.
If you ever needed any more proof that things are played fast and oh so loose over at Andy's garage....
Message to Andy - learn from Jobs & Wozniak, when you move your business out of your garage it isn't because you ran out of space, it's because it doesn't show well to investors. And yes Andy, SHAREHOLDERS ARE INVESTORS.
I thought today was going to be all about Home Depot, but now it seems as though it will be "A Tale of Two Earnings Reports." Where's Madame Defarge when you need her? (Hopefully busy knitting.)
P.S. Teal, I believe you forgot something off today's press release - "For SURE this time."
BLDP gives foot soldiers gas...
Ballard is up today following the announcement of a deal with Ardica for next stage development for a man portable FC based power generation unit which weighs 50% less than Li ion battery equivalent.
http://www.marketsemerging.com/why-ballard-power-systems-inc-usa-nasdaqbldp-is-rallying-today-plug-power-inc-nasdaqplug-fuelcell-energy-inc-nasdaqfcel-capstone-turbine-corporation-nasdaqcpst/1719369/
Perhaps todays bump in the Plug pps is because they are down wind...
I hope this isn't about getting a free lunch for Andy.
It seems impossible to believe that every major new customer would put a clause in the contract that their name cannot be announced until a ribbon cutting ceremony.
Don't forget about the elephant's butt.
We're all watching for a press release from Plug re. Home Depot and that's all well and good, but...
While waiting for the flea to move don't forget that the elephant upon whose butt that flea is sitting is reporting their financial results this Tuesday before market open.
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-home-depot-to-host-fourth-quarter--fiscal-2014-earnings-conference-call-on-february-24-300033616.html
Home Depot might announce a deal with Plug in their press release, or what is more likely is that they will allow Plug to announce after their own financials are out.
Just sayin'
Does the price really drop when Andy speaks?
The track record on conference calls vs. share price over the past year and a bit (stock price resurrection in Dec-13 to present) :
Activity Day Before Day After %Change Comment
Date PPS (Close) PPS (Close)
==========|============|=============|===========|=============
12/04/13 | 0.79 | 1.81 | +129% |Business update call
02/10/14 | 3.10 | 3.51 | + 13% |PR for new 1500 GenDrive multisite/year order to unnamed company
02/26/14 | 3.90 | 4.37 | + 12% |PR IDing Walmart, 1,738 GenDrive + GenFuel + GenCare
03/13/14 | 6.80 | 6.71 | - 1% |Q4 2013 results release after peaking at 11.72 on 03/11/14
04/21/14 | 7.32 | 6.70 | - 8% |Business update call
05/14/14 | 4.09 | 4.03 | - 1% |Q1 2014 results
08/14/14 | 5.86 | 5.92 | + 1% |Q2 2014 results with 0.02/share net and -0.04/share adj income
11/12/14 | 5.08 | 4.06 | - 20% |Q3 2014 results
01/28/15 | 3.18 | 2.75 | - 14% |Business update call
Q4/Annual Financials to be released 26 Feb
At the start of the January business update Teal cleared up some confusion regarding the content of the update call by indicating the financial results would be reported February 26th. Some of the on line columnists had published articles indicating the results would be released January 28th, despite the fact that there was every indication by Plug in their PR that the call was strictly a business update.
Also Andy Marsh is giving a talk at the Energy Independence Summit - http://www.plugpower.com/news/upcomingevents/15-02-17/Energy_Independence_Summit.aspx
Just a friendly reminder for Teal - we are less than 1 week away from February 26th and there still has not been a release on the Plug website indicating the results will be announced.
HD in-store GenDrive and Andy's reformer remarks
I think you may be correct with the in store trucks being the reason HD is so sensitive to the release of their name.
If I recall correctly in the January business update Andy threw in a couple of sentences about how they started out building systems for reforming, electrolysis, and pumping and storage intended for on site hydrogen production presumably from the more readily available natural gas/propane/isobutanol (if you are a believer in the GEVO connection) or just plain water. If your HD you definitely don't want to have the overhead of cryogenic tanks at every location to service one or two FC lift trucks.
What ever happened to the $75M sales figure that Andy was throwing around with wreckless abandon at the time of the Q2 and Q3 reports?
So far the reported sales for 2014 are a total of just $43M. I suspect that the revenue that was expected to be reported in Q3 actually will get posted in Q4. Assuming a good chunk of Q4 revenue doesn't get shuffled into 2015 by the same accounting issue, then a $30-$35M quarter may be reported. If so Q4 revenues would be approximately 4X 2013 figures, and annual revenue would be just shy of 3X last year. If that happens to result in a positive EPS to combine with a sprinkle of name dropping...
(Ah but for Andy's consistent inconsistency!)
If I were the new CFO I would put a priority on getting my first reporting win under my belt and strike while the iron is hot, 'cause who knows what next quarter will bring?
Whatever the reason it is good to see 750K shares go across the board over 15 minutes at the ask price instead of the bid price.
Yay!
But why? Maybe it is related to this post, which seems to be unrelated to Plug other than it is in the FC sector :
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/air-products-and-suzuki-shokan-sign-agreement-to-develop-hydrogen-fueling-for-japans-material-handling-market-300038534.html
Please don't be too harsh on our friend.
You have to give points for consistency, even if it is consistently avoiding the dissemination of information which might possibly be verified, consistently providing guidance which seems to have no other source than financially terminal unbridled optimism, and consistently goading short selling investors who are pursuing a completely legitimate route to financial gain.
In fact if given a choice between the consistent behaviour of our distinguished board member, and the consistent behaviour of the senior management of the company for which we all seem to have so much hope for financial success I do believe I would choose the former.
At this point I almost fear the coming annoucements of the financial results and (possibly) of important new clients.
If the results are fantastic there will almost certainly be a novel way of portraying them in some unimaginably worst possible light. It is more likely than not, however, that the results will not only be less than fanatastic, they will be less than the guidance we have been given. If that is indeed the case (AGAIN) then we can all shout from the rooftops about our new customers and how we now have the opportunity to increase sales - and the ever present losses on every dollar of sales booked. <Insert Howard Dean scream here.> But alas, it is more likely that information about new clients will (AGAIN) not be forthcoming either. (Despite the fact that at this point I seem to have a love/hate thing going on with consistency, I assure you I still have respect for it.)
We certainly cannot acuse our distinguished board member of being the first to the Kool-Aid trough of financially terminal unbridled optimism.
Because of the timing of the Ballard announcement and the 'guilt by association' pop of the Plug share price don't be surprised if the usual run up in share price prior to release of the results is already behind us. If so our only hope now is that Plug ACTUALLY DELIVERS on the unbridled optimism we have so consistently had doled out to us.
I'm not holding my breath.
Holding way too many calls despite the dispassionate opinion provided above, I wish GLTA,
canadajim
P.S. This message was written in response to a post from another member admonishing our boards favorite Plug pumper for pumping just a little (OK, a lot) too hard. Unfortunately both that message and this were swallowed by the black hole of Wednesday's data loss. This has been reposted from that miracle of miracles aka Google cache.
Google cache still speaks of Wednesday!
You sure hit that nail on the head!
I wish Plug's management would smarten up and keep a sharper focus on delivering value to the shareholders.
So far they've done a great job of paying their own salaries with money raised by repeatedly diluting, and then top that off by keeping the shareholders in the dark about 'future' customers (in quotes because if they've been working with them for six months already it just does not seem like it is either an appropriate or justified adjective)
Yes Andy, you have been delivering for the shorts! Problem is that the shareholders feel like their shorts are down around their ankles.
For the Fox Mulder in every Plug investor (because we really WANT to believe) here are some easily accessible images of what many of us believe to be the HD DC in Luckey, OH. The building in question is located between Pemberville and Lemoyne Roads with an entrance off of Pemberville Road at approximately 22253 Pemberville Road. This is about fifteen hundred feet south of the Fremont Pike (Hwy 20) which in turn is approximately 2 miles south of the Ohio Turnpike (Hwy I90).
Terraserver seems to have the latest satellite imagery (11/2/2014) and an overview can be had at http://www.terraserver.com/?tid=21&cx=295029&cy=4595132&proj=32617&mpp=4.342&pic=img&prov=dg&stac=1d03952a6b4219bc9d0e50cffca9ca2f
This image has the new warehouse in center left with the main access road running off Pemberville Road (vertical line in center of image) and being directly across the road from the entrance to a CITGO Truck Lube. Unfortunately the western edge of the satellite imaging passes through the middle of the structure preventing a complete view of the building. The employee parking lot is visible and empty.
North is towards the top of the image. Immediately south and west of the intersection of Pemberville Road and the access road is a pad with what appear to be six sets of long white cylinders with an E-W orientation.
A quick flip to imagery from 2011 on the web site shows a field full of crops where the building now stands, so we know that this building was constructed well after that.
An image zoomed in on the mysterious pad is available at http://www.terraserver.com/?tid=21&cx=295032&cy=4595136&proj=32617&mpp=0.336&pic=img&prov=dg&stac=1d03952a6b4219bc9d0e50cffca9ca2f
It appears that there are no pipelines to the building at the point of construction when the image was captured.
For reference there are images of a liquid hydrogen storage and evaporator unit on the Plug website at http://www.plugpower.com/News/blog/post/2014/10/30/Why-a-GenFuel-Hydrogen-Infrastructure-Makes-Sense.aspx
For a street level view from Google Earth (Bing's street level is too old to show anything but a field full of crops) set your street view position to 41d29'18.11"N and 83d27'29.07"W and rotate so you are looking south. (If you move any more to the East the imagery is too far out of date to show anything.)
From this position you can see a VERY large warehouse to the right with approximately 40 truck loading docks and what appears to be a rail car access door to the right, and more truck loading bays on the extreme right which is partially obstructed by some trees. Turning the view slightly to the south east (above the two wooden fence posts) one can see the structure which resembles what is (presumably) the liquid hydrogen storage tank and evaporater which can seen from the satellite image. Further to the east the CITGO buildings are visible. The four high stacks visible above the warehouse are actually from what appears to be an oil fired generating station to the south of the warehouse that also appear in older street level views.
Unfortunately I don't have a database of tank dimensions to which I can compare the white cylinders in the images, and the resolution simply is not good enough in any of the images for me to positively identify exactly what these are. For now I can only infer these are hydrogen storage tanks at an early stage of installation.
What I do believe is that the more concrete evidence that gets posted here the faster the official annoucement will come. If your a PR person at HD or Plug it would be embarrassing to be the issuer of a press release containing the worst kept secret of which company signed a new big purchase agreement.
Perhaps the friend of uksausage who drove by the facility can post some pics of the tanks which should be easily visible from the road.
Maybe he can also tell me if Fox Mulder's sister is there!