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I hope and bet good news. Can't imagine any bad news.
Like many others i know, that we will see at least 0,18 eps for 2015.
This eps are not included yet, but will, as they are beeing reported.
If q4/14 show 0,04 eps, more and more people will invest and do research about banro, so they will find out about 2015 expectations too. Debt is now an obstacle but won't matter for more and more people then, when they make high profit...
I ask myself the question, if future eps expectations are already included, too.
0,07 for q4//14 is the maximum i think, but with repayments, eps of 0,04 are more realistic.
I think the next eps, even if 0,04, should boost the price.
A p/e ratio of around 10 (now 16) will be fair imo, that means a pps of 0,40.
Nothing happens and everything has been said.
I have a question to the experts here about bankruptcy.
If Banro goes bankrupt, how much do you think we will get for one share.
Waiting is frustrating. I believe everything is right with banro, they just don't care about the shareholders.
A financial deal would be wonderful <3
It's not nice from Banro to let us shareholders wait so long without giving comprehensible reasons.
I hope shortly after the testing phase of the drum has finished, there will be a financial deal.
Every comming report will send the price higher :)
The maturity date for the senior security notes is at 31.07.2016 not 31.01.2016, sorry for the mistake.
Within the first 2 month 2015, Banro has to repay about 10m. With a production of about 28.000, revenue for the first two month is about 14m, so there should not be any problems with liquidity. And as already mentioned, with every month, Banro will shine brighter. Some people said, they only have ~200k cash left, so don't worry.
For the last 10 month 2015, every month will bring about 7,6m revenue with an average gold price of 1200$. And only 27m have to be repaid for the rest of the year.
Even if gold price stays at these levels, banro has paid all of their debts within 3-4 years. Their mine life is about 10 years for Twangiza and 13 years for namoya and they have already new projects with lugushwa and kamituga. And don't forget, that they have only a little bit of their whole land discovered
0,21$ eps and a resulting pps of 2$ within the end of the year sound too good to be true and i would personally be sceptic if somebody told me i can make 1333% or even 500% within a year, but facts are facts.
So let's hope, there won't be any problems with the gold price or political problems in the next months.
Am i right with my thoughts?
I have already found the answer myself.
"Notes provided under the facility mature on July 31, 2016, and have an interest rate of 10% to 15% per year. The warrants have a three-year term and entitle the holder to buy 13.3 million Banro shares at 26.9¢ a piece"
I calculated with the numbers from naomi debt and repayment terms of about 37m for 2015, compared with about 46m 2014.
37m/12 would be about 3m repayment per month.
If they mine 184.000oz 2015 at an aberage gold price of 1200$ with 700$ all-in-sustaining costs, they will have a revenue of 92m. That would be a revenue of 7,6m per month.
The maturity date for their bonds is at 03.01.2017 and the senior security notes have the maturity date at 31.01.2016, so both souldn't make a liquidity problem 2015 and give management a lot of time to make a financial deal for the future.
Net income will be about 55m for 2015 and eps 0,21 if my numbers are right.
With auramet they have a tested partner for short term financing, especially therefor, if the production numbers are lower at the beginning of the year or if repayments come together.
To sum up, repayment shouldn't be a problem 2015 and situation improves with every month. Next reports will show high production numbers as well as high eps. Liquidity situation won't be a problem 2015 and gives management a lot of time to care for long term debts.
Interesting numbers. Does andbody know how this gramercy liquidity backstop works exactly.
When have the 35m to be paid? 2015?
No, there are unfortunately no other informations. This is from Naomi from about 2-3 weeks ago:
"The situation is certainly under control and we have been managing, and can continue to manage, under current circumstances for as long as is required. We have structured payment plans in place with our chief creditors, still have sufficient supplies coming to both mine sites and are working with our gold sale partner, Auramet, for very short term forward gold sales to cover off any periods of constriction, as we have done many times in the past. The funds from the GH arrangement would be used to clear a large portion of the longer term accounts payable to put the company in a more 'comfortable' position with respect to cash flow.
As for the arrangement with Gold Holding...we have no specific date for a closing but, as we have disclosed, we continue to dialogue with and work toward a closing."
It's very positive, that they already have a strong partner for fast short-term financing.
Yes, true. http://www.auramet.com/lender.php#
Based on production, earnings per share, all-in-sustaining costs, cash costs and an average shiller-p/e ratio, this stock will move up. The fundamentals of Banro have changed dramatically due to namoya and lower all-in-sustaining costs. It's a fact, that next report at mid march will show eps of about 0,04 per ounce due to the reasons i already stated. Last eos were 0,01. Please read reports and press releases.
After coming reports, you buy two high revenue and high production mines with less debt. But i don't think for the same share price.
I believe we will see the 0.17 area again today due to insider activity.
Are you seriously quitting?
There is a high possibility we hear about financials or drum in the near term.
That isn't a new news release, because it's from january the 5th. Nothing new.
This is not new, this is old ;)
Banro is my main investment, because i believe it has great potential, otherwise i wouldn't have bought it. If Banro goes to 2$ i will be eich ;)
Thanks for your answer fazlice :) I am the same opinion like you about probability of bankruptcy, but i have too much money invested, so it stays a nightmare. Lot's of good news coming with the next reports :)
You are damn right :)
I did every research on banro i could and after my calculations my "worst" expected earnings per share for q4 are 0.04.
But 0.07 are more likely.
The next report will change things :)
What do you think about probability of bancruptcy?
Let's hope 0.30-0.50. Probability of bankruptcy is the reason, this rocket is still on the ground. Buying this stock is a bet about bankruptcy. I don't believe that it will go bankrupt, because there will be high eps 2015 and management has a lot of possibilities.
Waiting is frustrating. But as long as price doesn't go down, i don't care waiting. Time is with us. 2015 fundamentals of this company will change dramatically in the positive sense. With last eps, the pps seems fair at these levels. But everybody knows, that they will have a much higher revenue 2015. an investment is a shift of consumption in the future, so let's wait.
I am absolutely your opinion :) Last news are 1 month old and with every day moving on, good news are coming closer. I dont believe those fairy tales about bankruptcy, because if cash situation for management gets worse, they always have the possibility of a financial deal with bad conditions.
Only the miners with high all-in-sustaining costs will go bankrupt.
Banro has a much higher production than 2015 and low costs. Eps will be incredible. This compny will rock when cash situation gets sunny :)
Only the political risk can be a problem in 1-2years.
In my opinion, eps and expected eps are the most important financial numbers to rate a company. Banro had 0,06 eps 2009, 0,02 2010, 0,05 2011, 0,02 2012, 0,01 2013 and 0,01 for the first three quarters 2014. In the past, the pps was much higher rated due to future expectations. With 0,15 pps, banro now seems fairly valued based on 0,01 eps and insufficient cash. BUT the next earnings per share will be magnificient due to incredible higher production. So get in the boat before it is too late ;)
Absolutely right. The coming earnings per share will be wonderful and thats the reason i invest in Banro. If new eps are reported, Banro will be eveluated based on them by market powers. If they report 0,03 eps for Q4/14 mid march, people can extrapolate them on the year :)
I hope no other problems will occur in the near term
You mean 7500 and 4500?
What do you guys think about the cash situation especially if no deal is closed?
What about the problem of bankruptcy?
That's the questons which cause nightmares :)
I am all in your opinion. The deal with GH is dead and another deal will take a lot of time. But the coming quarterly eps reports will be very good and will send the pps into the sky :) 2015 will be so much different from 2014 in terms of all-in-sustaining costs, production numbers and eps. But I hope they won't have problems with cash in the near term :(