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There was a drop in crude inventories -- but it was not as low as analysts expected? What analysts? Who pays them to make up these so called estimates?
I think the drop is all that matters in the end game. Inventories are down... hip, hip, hooray!
But this did give the shorts a reason to slam CHK. But it will not succeed.
This little drop will not last long as traders will realize that any drop in inventories is a positive, not a negative! WTI, Brent, and natgas will all end the day in the green as will CHK!
This would be a good time for a short attack, but it looks like they are fearful. What if they short heavy and UK votes to remain in the EU? The news will run the stock up and they'd be caught with their shorts exposed.
And what if the crude oil inventories coming out at 10:30 AM shows a big drop. Their shorts would really be waving in the wind.
The way it is trading now gives me the feeling that there is a strong desire to accumulate at current prices.
I also think folks are waiting on Cushing inventories at 10:30 AM.
tidbits of cheer for CHK longs!
1. Poor ole Canadian gas producers going broke fast (Link). This means they will not be overproducing cheap nat gas this year. Canadians have another problem. The way the weather looks now, the polar jet stream will be to the far north, pushing a whole lot of cold fronts down from northern Canada to south Canada and the northern United States. Lots of deep snow and bitter cold on the way for the most populous areas in Canada and US. Looks like they will have to import gas from the US rather than sell it to us.
2.Southern California is going to run out of nat gas in the middle of a heat wave (link). Over the last 4 months, Aliso Canyon gas storage facility in Los Angeles County, California has leaked out 5.4 billion cubic feet of nat gas. Although the leak has been plugged, significant work remains before the state will certify that additional gas can be safely pumped into the facility. Officials estimate that there could be up to 31 days this year during which gas deliveries will need to be curtailed because demand will exceed supplies, potentially causing 14 days of rolling blackouts in Southern California this summer. (ouch)
3.A misleading statement: Because of the warm winter 2015, total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 23.2% above the five-year average for this time of year. Unless intense summer heat boosts demand from power plants, stockpiles will test physical storage limits at the end of October. The misleading part here is that production has dropped 5 Bcf/d and demand is up 5 Bcf/d. The reality is that we will reach November below the 5 year average.
Hillary will no doubt will keep Yellen! That's all the reason I need to vote for Trump. She makes me want to sell my stocks and open a funeral home.
5.25 million share first 30 minutes.
I think that if we keep taking out weak longs we will eventually reach a stage where there will be no sellers willing to dump. I see more and more evidence pointing in that direction. I also think the stock market is cutting its own throat by allowing the manipulation to continue. For myself, chesapeake might be the last stock I trade. The market is just getting too nerve racking and not fun like it used to be.
I think we should hold up relatively good today!
It is easy for a group of analysts to attack a company with one knee already on the ground. You just make a big deal out of all the negatives to scare the longs and leave out the positive side.
Since early this year when a short attack began against Chesapeake, I have been following all of the activity surrounding that company including all the news stories as well as all daily tic by tic trading activity.
I could see that CHK's trading didn't make sense. The stock price moved weird just like it did yesterday. It was up to $4.85 in premarket and soon down to $4.45 before it clawed its way back to $4.61
How it works!
This process can be used by market makers trading their own accounts or trading for hedge funds to either pump up a stock or to trash a stock but since I am using CHK as an example, we will discuss that situation. First information is widely distributed to make investors wonder about the company and to put fear into longs. Next, high volume shorting takes place to drive the company's share price down.
As the short attack continues, more shorts parade out negative news to continue to put questions in the back of investors' minds. Shorts and hedge funds use computerized trading to control the direction of the share price. At opportune times, the shorts overwhelm the buyers (bid price) of the stock by selling short large number of shares to drive the share price down and to eliminate the buyers for the stock at that given time. Many times, the market maker post false bid and ask numbers to try to lead the longs into selling at lower prices.
Shorts need to control the stock's share price over a long time (often several months to well over a year), and can't afford to just accumulate an unlimited number of short positions in the stock, so they have to be buying shares at the same time they are selling shares too. When the shorts drive the share price down, eliminating buyers as discussed above, some of those investors trying to sell their shares at that same time will follow the share price activity downward lowering their ask price.
Now the shorts can buy back some of the shares they have shorted at lower prices including some shares where longs have put stop-loss sale orders to protect against downside losses. The shorts will only buy shares part of the way back up as the share price rises, and then wait to see if new buyers come into the market. If the share price continues to rise up to much again during the day, the shorts will repeat the same selling and buying process to control the share price.
As mentioned above, the shorts need to control the share price over an extended period of time. They need to wear down the longs with rumor mongering as well as by creating fear as the longs continue to see the share price go down. They hope the longs will give up and sell their shares at the lowest possible share price.
Another observation, shorts try to wear down the longs by making sure that the share price closes down as many days in a row as they can put together. At the close of many days, I witnessed volume dramatically increasing as the shorts tried to insure CHK's share price closes down. Shorts are hoping the longs, frustration with the share price continuing downward, will end up in capitulation where as many longs as possible just give up and sell their shares.
I don't know how low the shorts will drive the share price of Chesapeake during this current short attack, but I do believe Chesapeake is a strong good growing company. As with all false short attacks, the share price will bounce back. After the share price bottom is reached, you can expect the shorts to continue their rumor mongering so they can continue buying to cover their shorts as the share price rises back up.
Since Chesapeake is already under attack by shorts, and if history repeats itself, anyone buying shares at this time should be in for some nice gains over the next 6 to 12 months as Chesapeake share price rises back to where it should be now (~$7.50). The shorts greatest fear is that people will figure out their lies too soon, and the share price will rise up to quickly. I think there is a good chance for that to happen as a lot of people are learning CHK is a target of a short attack.
Also I have to believe this manipulation has to involve collusion between many major players since it wouldn't work if they didn't work together. If one or more of the major short players decided they didn't want to participate further in driving the share price down, and decided to buy to cover, this would create a major problem for the other major short players. The remaining major short players would not only have to drive the price down based on selling shares to new longs but would also have to sell shares to those other major short players buying to cover their shorts. The remaining short players would not be able to manipulate the stock share price as easy as they did when working together.
If you are wondering why would they short more shares even when a company like Chesapeake has obviously turned the corner. Here is the reason. Since the shorts already have the investment community wondering about problems, introduced by the shorts themselves, they were able to take the steam out of a lot of long enthusiasm over the last quarter, the shorts now believe they will have a better opportunity on the next dip in oil prices. At least that's what the shorts hope for.
And since shorts know the timing of their attacks, they are able to make more profits from selling and buying options. I would have to believe these option profits could run into the millions of dollars.
As you can see from the large dollar amounts involved in the short attack, these must be big players and they must have a lot of influence over the marketplace.
The only encouragement I can offer is that weak longs will continue to be replaced by longs with a longer term view. Selling for a cheap price will soon dry up. There is already evidence of this happening right now. One of these days soon, good news with hit after the market opens and run CHK up at $1 or $2 and the shorts will die at the stake.
I was hoping yesterday was the day, but when I seen all the negative articles about the same old shit hit the market, I knew the shorts were pressing hard. Personally, I think they are beginning to get a little scared. And, when one outfit clears away from the scam, it will put the others in a stampede for the exit gate.
This is the big advantages of buying a once high-flying stock under a short attack. When they turn the corner and head north, they usually do so in giant leaps up. Just watch the volume... if it is sky-high and the price is moving up, hang on tight! Don't sell whatever you do.
This is a $7.50 stock right now and will hit $10 by January 2017!
A CROOK NAMED CRAMER!
In March 2007, a December 2006 interview from TheStreet, Inc's "Wall Street Confidential" webcast stirred controversy after it appeared on YouTube.com.[30] In the video, Cramer described activities used by hedge fund managers to manipulate stock prices—some of debatable legality and others illegal. He described how he could push stocks higher or lower with as little as $5 million in capital when he was running his hedge fund. Cramer said, "A lot of times when I was short at my hedge fund...When I was positioned short—meaning I needed it down—I would create a level of activity beforehand that could drive the futures." He also encouraged hedge funds to engage in this type of activity because it is "a very quick way to make money."[31]
Cramer stated that everything he did was legal, but that illegal activity is common in the hedge fund industry as well. He also stated that some hedge fund managers spread false rumors to drive a stock down: "What's important when you are in that hedge-fund mode is to not do anything remotely truthful because the truth is so against your view, that it's important to create a new truth, to develop a fiction."[31] Cramer described a variety of tactics that hedge fund managers use to affect a stock's price. Cramer said that one strategy to keep a stock price down is to spread false rumors to reporters he described as "the Pisanis of the world." The comment was a reference to CNBC correspondent Bob Pisani, who reports from the trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange. "You have to use these guys," said Cramer. He also discussed giving information to "the bozo reporter from The Wall Street Journal" to get an article published.[32][33] Cramer said this practice, although illegal, is easy to do "because the SEC doesn't understand it."[34] During the interview Cramer referred to himself as a "banking-class hero."[35]
Much More At The Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Cramer
Now the Street.com comes out and attacks Chesapeake, taking the side of Jefferies. link
There was ~500,000 shares sold short after the open to run the price down. I don't think all these shares have cleared their short position. I get the feeling that the reason for the Street.com's attack is to allow the shorts to clear before the close.
Volume is picking up. My gut tells me the move will fail. Chesapeake buyers will gobble up the cheap shares.
There must be a lot of shorts still thinking Chesapeake will fail. It ain't gonna happen!
Nat Gas Hit $2.71 record so far for 2016!
Big Short Attack on Chesapeake. They are hitting hard. News releases one after the other. I am blown away by the attempt to manipulate this stock to a lower price. This is done so the manipulators can grab a strong position at cheaper prices. I feel sorry for the poor fools that fall for this trick!
I really can't believe what my eyes are seeing! These guys got more balls than a room full of brass monkeys!
9 MILLION SHARES IN FIRST 30 MINUTES!
Shorts hitting CHK hard trying to run the price down; these are not normal sellers, they would never push the price down this hard. This will end soon and the price will head back north.
I really can't believe that would hit this stock at this time. They must be desperate to get in cheaper.
5 million shares in 15 minutes. I repeat, this not normal sellers; they would never push this hard to knock the price down.
This will turn around very soon!
2 million shares traded in 4 minutes! This is gonna be a happy day!
Big volume today.....
Jefferies raises price target to $3 and says CHK will underperform. Natural gas gets shorted down 2 cents before the open to scare investor into dumping out so others can get in at a cheap price. Volume might hit 75 million shares today. Price will no doubt break $5 and may close much higher.
Big volumes means $7.00 within 30 days.
Rock and roll CHK!
ROCKET SHIP LEAVES AT 9:30 AM
All aboard for the moon!
The Weather Gods Are Kind
BIG POSITIVE!
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3982299-weather-gods-kind-natural-gas-daily
Natural-Gas Prices Rise on Expected Summer Demand!
Warm weather forecasts keep stoking expectations for strong demand this summer
http://www.wsj.com/articles/natural-gas-prices-up-on-expected-summer-demand-1466175416
Europe's Rise in Natural Gas Demand Means More LNG
“As 2016 progresses, Europe is set to take on an increasingly important role as the LNG market of last resort. The liquid NW European hubs at NBP and TTF will set the price benchmark for surplus cargoes as LNG export volumes ramp up from new Australian and U.S. liquefaction terminals,” Timera Energy
One of the great debates in the energy arena today is Europe’s future demand for natural gas, the world’s fastest growing major fuel for both use and trade. This is especially important for the U.S. LNG business looking to export more gas to Europe to buffer Russian influence. Gazprom delivers about 33% of Europe’s gas.
Europe uses 47-50 Bcf/day of gas, and imports almost half of that. Europe’s is the world’s biggest gas importer, and future demand is a really big deal because emerging U.S. LNG export potential could target Europe than more distant Asia. Gas prices have essentially converged all over (here), reducing arbitrage opportunities and explaining “Spain to receive 15 LNG cargoes in July, reload none.”
Gas demand in Europe was up 4-5% in 2015. Unwisely, some are using the recent decline in gas demand in Europe to insist that more efficiency and more renewables simply mean that Europe doesn’t need more gas infrastructure, like pipelines, inter-connectors, and LNG infrastructure, all especially vital to moving imported LNG into Spain/Portugal eastward to lower Russian dependence.
But, we know the truth: the International Energy Agency reports that Europe needs to invest $40 billion in natural gas supply each year. With the worst gas security rankings in the world (here), the European Commission knows the importance of more gas infrastructure: “Liquefied Natural Gas and gas storage will boost European Union’s energy security.”
The fact is that Russia will continue to thrive as Europe continues to enact unrealistic energy policies that ignore the physical, economical, and technical realities and limitations of renewables. Despite a concerted effort to reduce it, Europe’s reliance on Russia has “significantly increased,” although the dependence on Ukraine as a transit country has fallen (here).
http://www.forbes.com/sites/judeclemente/2016/06/19/europes-rise-in-natural-gas-demand-means-more-lng/#2b04e3716e5d
Europe's Rise in Natural Gas Demand Means More LNG
“As 2016 progresses, Europe is set to take on an increasingly important role as the LNG market of last resort. The liquid NW European hubs at NBP and TTF will set the price benchmark for surplus cargoes as LNG export volumes ramp up from new Australian and U.S. liquefaction terminals,” Timera Energy
One of the great debates in the energy arena today is Europe’s future demand for natural gas, the world’s fastest growing major fuel for both use and trade. This is especially important for the U.S. LNG business looking to export more gas to Europe to buffer Russian influence. Gazprom delivers about 33% of Europe’s gas.
Europe uses 47-50 Bcf/day of gas, and imports almost half of that. Europe’s is the world’s biggest gas importer, and future demand is a really big deal because emerging U.S. LNG export potential could target Europe than more distant Asia. Gas prices have essentially converged all over (here), reducing arbitrage opportunities and explaining “Spain to receive 15 LNG cargoes in July, reload none.”
Gas demand in Europe was up 4-5% in 2015. Unwisely, some are using the recent decline in gas demand in Europe to insist that more efficiency and more renewables simply mean that Europe doesn’t need more gas infrastructure, like pipelines, inter-connectors, and LNG infrastructure, all especially vital to moving imported LNG into Spain/Portugal eastward to lower Russian dependence.
But, we know the truth: the International Energy Agency reports that Europe needs to invest $40 billion in natural gas supply each year. With the worst gas security rankings in the world (here), the European Commission knows the importance of more gas infrastructure: “Liquefied Natural Gas and gas storage will boost European Union’s energy security.”
The fact is that Russia will continue to thrive as Europe continues to enact unrealistic energy policies that ignore the physical, economical, and technical realities and limitations of renewables. Despite a concerted effort to reduce it, Europe’s reliance on Russia has “significantly increased,” although the dependence on Ukraine as a transit country has fallen (here).
http://www.forbes.com/sites/judeclemente/2016/06/19/europes-rise-in-natural-gas-demand-means-more-lng/#2b04e3716e5d
milkman, I never place a put or call in my entire life. I can easily see natgas selling $3.50 in August but I don't yet feel $5. The prices I see for August depends on the continuation of the heat wave going on now and the number of hurricanes hitting the Gulf of Mexico.
Working gas in storage now is 3,041 Bcf (EIA estimates). This 704 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,337 Bcf. My calculation say current levels will drop ~800 Bcf by November putting us slightly below average going into the winter drawdown season. (By the way, I don't trust the EIA. Most government agencies can be bought for a song. The oil and gas industry has been buying government favors for 75 years!)
Here's the #1 problem: The number of natgas rigs working now is 86; a 50-year low. Of these 86 rigs working, we don't know how many are workover rigs cleaning DUCs and how many are tier 1 rigs. I have no reason to say this, but I believe most of the 300 pad-optimized tier 1 rigs available now are working on oil plays. If this "guess" is right, my thinking is that a hot, humid summer and 3-4 nasty hurricanes will drop natgas storage to near record lows.
I think we need to wait until mid-July to get a feeling of mid-August.
Temperatures set to top 120 degrees as monster heat wave hits Southern California!
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-heat-wave-20160618-snap-htmlstory.html
READ IT ALL ON GOOGLE LINK
Tier 1 rigs continue to work while older tier 2 and 3 rigs are being scrapped. Tier 1 can drill the same well in half the time and bore more lateral and longer horizontal sections underground.
Tier 1 Pad-optimal rigs are at the top of the demand list. Pad-optimal rigs have the following: dual-fuel capabilities, 7,500-psi mud pump system, omnidirectional walking legs capable of fast conventional moves, and 1,500 hp AC drives. Rigs with these characteristics will be the first to achieve 100% utilization.
There are around 700 rigs running 1,500 horsepower but only about 50% are pad-optimal. Most of these are already contacted to oil producers.
If things don't change soon, gas production will likely drop like a stone as demand for pad-optimal rigs goes beyond supply.
Rising gas prices will cause an increased demand for Chesapeake shares, especially under $10. I see a strong desire by institutions to accumulate cheap shares building rapidly along with a very limited desire to sell by other institutions. Only a fool would dump Chesapeake under $15.
Of course some of you will think this is only hype, especially those that have read all the negativity put out by the shorts. I don't recall ever seeing so many negative reports on one stock in the last 30 years. All this bad publicity has had a disastrous effect on CHK share price. Chesapeake is right now a $10 stock that has been beaten into the ground! This is what makes it so attractive. This is bottom fishing at its finest.
YOU SOLD OUT DIDN'T YOU?
You'll be sorry. No chance to get to get in Monday unless you pay at Least $5.00, which indeed is an excellent entry point. You'll still make a lot of money!
HELL ON EARTH HAS ARRIVED!
Oh my God! This is far worse than I imagined. I told you it was coming but this is terrible for the people. Read the stories! THIS WILL PULL RECORD AMOUNTS OF NAT GAS OUT OF STORAGE. AND WE HAVE NOT EVEN REACHED JULY OR AUGUST!
https://www.google.com/search?hl=en&as_q=record+heat+wave&as_epq=&as_oq=&as_eq=&as_nlo=&as_nhi=&lr=&cr=&as_qdr=all&as_sitesearch=&as_occt=any&safe=images&as_filetype=&as_rights=
girlfriend, CHK was up over 9% on heavy accumulation and on shorts clearing out. No other stock in the sector went so high. It hit resistance at $4.65 as Docenomics told you. Resistance is a physiological barrier, not a tall mountain. The best indicators are found in the RSI, MPI, or STOCH numbers as indicated by this chart (link).
Resistance is simply a price where the new buyers decide not to pay anymore. Good day traders recognize resistance as a point where a high-flying stock may give back some of its daily gains so they either sell at the resistance point if they are long or they short the stock if they are out. They are hoping to pick up a profit when the stock gives back some of its run up. This is a common day trading pattern.
The 5 cents gain (1.11%) and 1.6 million shares traded in after hours tells you that many day traders decided to buy back their shorts or close their positions with a small gain. In others words, many are nervous about holding CHK overnight because they can tell by its high volume that the stock is being accumulated by institutional buyers. Monday will not doubt be another high-volume day.
The fact that it only retraced back in after hours to a 6.7% gain is a strong indicator of the respect that this stock is now getting. It is obvious that more and more traders see opportunity in Chesapeake, which is what I been trying to teach you for months.
I work hard for you because you're my girlfriend, but how are you gonna learn about trading until you take the cotton out of your ears and stick it in your mouth. Seems to me you have no respect for my 30+ years of experience because you are always popping off with some smart remark indicating that I am stupid and don't know a sector move from stock accumulation by institutions. CHK has been under accumulation for ~15 trading days now but Brexit interferred. CHK will also experience a roller-coaster ride likely into the middle of July. Not because this is not the best buy on the NYSE but because many institutions will exit to be replaced by new buyers with long range goals. The more volume we get, the quicker we get through the housecleaning that a once glorious stock must go through on its way back to glory.
I'm with Carl Icahn on Chesapeake. I truly believe this company will become the #1 nat gas producer in this part of the world unless a major buys it out soon. Carl Icahn is a business genius. He has proven it over and over again. He is heavily invested in nat gas and owns a large share of Cheniere Energy (LNG), the LNG exporter. He advocates for shareholders. He's got seats on both boards and is not about to let any stupid moves get by him.
Yes, many shorts beat up on Chesapeake but notice that in all the negative article written there is never any mention of the 8 million acres of oil and gas territory Chesapeake controls. The average price for this land is $22,000 per acre. Even if they sold it for $10,000 per acre, they could easily pay off all their debt. Why in the hell do you think they are holding all this land (money) in reserve? To raise cattle? No my dear. Chesapeake is holding this asset because it is the future of the largest oil and gas producer in North America!
And, sure there are lots of oil and gas stocks with better balance sheets, but what's the use in placing a bet on a horse with very small odds even if it wins. The best bet most of the time is a horse that will pay off at least five to one. $4.51 placed on the nose of Chesapeake Monday morning could easily return $30.00 in less than 2 years. Now those odds are exciting!
On the other hand, if you just want make a $1 a share, pick a nice mutual fund.
I also sense that you are little disturbed inside. I bet you sold out of CHK and missed this run up!
I hope so, $5 would send a good message and bring in a lot of new investors. With a little good news from management we could hit $6 by the first week in July! and be at $7.50 by September.
Here shorty... here shorty... time to take your medicine. Drop you pants and been over. It's gonna hurt like hell but you deserve it, you friggin idiot!
12 million shares 1st hour! High volume day. CHK is being accumulated by some large institutions. Buying is being done mostly by the market makers. They will not push the bid to strong. They are trying to keep the price from running up too fast. The price will drift up and then down a little and then up again and then down and then up again.
This is EXTREMELY BULLISH! Makes me believe Chesapeake is about ready to announce some really good news in a few days!
expect Nat Gas price to pop to $2.63!
shorts keep trying to run it down and it keeps running back up. They can't hold it down much longer without losing a lot of money. They like to do this to scare investors into selling nat gas stocks in cheap in premarket.
Don't Trust the EIA!
The 5-year average for the 1st week of June is around 88 Bcf of gas injected into storage.
This week's storage was reported by the EIA as 69 Bcf, 19 Bcf less than average. Gas shot up really fast like a rocket. Then buyers realized that analysts were expecting a storage addition of 66 Bcf so gas prices crashed as quick as they shot up. Then about an hour later, gas buyers realized the injection rate was 19 Bcf less than average so gas slowly moved back into the green.
Sounds like someone is playing games. Why should what market-manipulating analysts project even enter the picture. Analysts are a dime a dozen and almost never right on anything. So let's forget the analysts and back up and think about the situation for a minute. The summer season is when we inject gas into storage so we can make it through the winter heating season. If the 5-year average injection is 88 Bcf, then gas going into storage was down 21% for the week. In other words, if we keep up this average, we will inject about 400 Bcf less into storage by the 20th of November, 2016. Keep in mind that NOAA is predicting the hottest summer in the history of the world so a fair guess (if NOAA's prediction comes true) is about 500 billion cubic feet less going into storage in 2016.
Working gas in storage is about 2,950 Bcf as of today. The five-year average is 2,337 Bcf. If we get the hot summer as promised, we will enter the winter heating season at or near the 5-year average as opposed to a record high of 4,009 Bcf on November 20, 2015.
LNG exports were nil in 2015, but EIA projects LNG gross exports will rise to an average of 0.5 Bcf/d in 2016. Assuming this is true, LNG will require 15 Bcf per month from July thru November or 75 Bcf.
Exports to Mexico will rise in 2016 about 1 Bcf/d or 30 Bcf per month which will be close to 150 Bcf from July thru November. If we deduct the 225 Bcf from the average storage we will go into the winter heating season with 2,125 Bcf in storage.
If we get a NORMAL winter as projected with some major snow storms, we will run completely out of natural gas by March 30th.
The only thing that will save us is a whole lot of drilling that has not even got under way yet! On the other hand, there was 236 rigs drilling for gas this time last year.
So... now you see why I think Chesapeake, the 2nd largest natural gas producer in the US will hit $10 by the end January 2017. I see a spike coming during a big Northwestern or Northeastern snowstorm in which nat gas could shot up to $8/mmBtu just for a day or two. I also see Canada running out of Nat Gas because if NOAA is correct the northern Jet stream will more further north and dump a ton of snow and cold all over Canada. Canada will have to import from the US, not export to the US.
I believe my numbers are correct simply because I would not lie to myself on purpose. And I don't give a rat's butt if you believe me or not. This post is written for my own purposes, not yours. The reason way I'm not trying to bullshit you is because it would be stupid. There is less than 30 members of this group, not even a drop in a tall bucket. Blowing smoke up your butt would be really stupid on my part because we are so few.
In the previous five winters, the total withdrawal from the 20 November through the end of March averaged 2,176 Bcf. The average going into this winter's heating season will be 2,125 Bcf so we could easily have a shortage on nat gas.
The 52-week range for natural gas is $1.94 to $3.17. One year ago the price for a million BTUs was around $3.12. I expect to see an average of $4 with one or two day spikes to $8 in January 2017.
As girlfriend says, we are going through POO now so just hang in and you will be rewarded. There has been a lot of accumulation at cheap prices lately simply because a lot of weak hands are selling out. The buyers usually get their daily fill by 3 pm and the prices start to drop as the market maker shorts the stock. The market maker then sells his shorts back to the next days buyers. This is normal for the kind of trading we are doing. The volume was 39 million yesterday and I expect this to continue all month.
Volume is important because it confirms price. I think a lot of buyers will be loading up on Chesapeake simply because there is zero chance of BK proceedings and the company has an unused $4 billion credit line to ramp up production.
Exxon produce 3,186 MMcf/day in the last 6 months of 2015. Chesapeake Energy 2,979 MMcf/day during the same period (only 207 MMcf/day less). Chesapeake could easily out produce Exxon and become the largest nat gas producer in the US.
Remember $10 by the end of January 2017 -- 7 short months from now!
I was just dreaming on the $30... the $10 target is real!
looks like the market maker is using the bid and ask numbers to lead the stock down. My guess is that he is buying for a large account and trying to get the best price he can. The stock is getting ready to move up another 10 cents.
8 million shares per hour for 3 hours... that's about 40 million shares changing hands for the day. Lots of weak shares chewed up and spit out is good for CHK longs! Oil seems to be firming up a little. I think the stock has withstood a heavy attack with flying colors. Think we have put in a pretty solid bottom at $4.20... Lots of institutions are accumulating so now it is just a matter of a few weeks until we hit $5 share, then $6 by the middle of August, and $7 by September, $8 by November and $10 by the middle of January!
Rock and Roll Chesapeake!
If you're gonna dream... dream big! Who knows for sure? It might happened and then again maybe it won't!
Look at this way. No one can deny that I have been on a really sick obsession trying to pick the stock that will make the most money over the next 12 months. I've looked at every angle ten times. I've weight all the negatives. I've watch the stock move up and down tic by tic trying to understand every move. I knew I should have dumped yesterday at $4.50 but I was too scared that I might get stomped out and the stock run away from me. I was strong on SWN but sold out on a quick run up and it ran up and up and up and up and I missed a triple.
I'm in until the end.
I bought 20K on margin at $4.10 this morning and sold them back at $4.20 for $2k profit, but I still hold my base because I know deep inside that nat gas will return to about $4 soon and CHK will run to $10 by January 2017. The only thing that can stop it is a really warm winter, which I don't think is gonna happen. I think there will be lots snowstorms that will keep kids at home with the furnish running and winter gas demand will be normal if not high. Nat Gas may even spike to $6 like it did during the Northwestern storm that hit New York City last January.
Gas has reversed itself and now up to $2.63 and CHK is now starting to trade more on gas than crude, which is the way it should be!
By the way, we have traded 9.3 million shares an hour since open. That's the best volume I've seen all year. CHK is being accumulated by institutions... there is no better endorsement as when the pros join you in your investments. Maybe they are reading me on this board? he he ha
What will be the damage to CHK in 60 days?
Money runs to a safe haven--oil and gas drops. Producers and their banks get nervous. Capex spending slows down or even comes to a stop. Oil and gas inventories drop like a stone thrown into the Grand Canyon. The weather continues to get hotter and gas demand increases at the same time supplies are dropping. Drilling stops. Storages drops to all time low. Prices start to rise. Banks are slow to lend money. Drilling drags along slowly. Productions drops and prices increases. It gets hotter than hell and air conditioning is running 24 hours. Power companies can't buy any nat gas. Electric blackouts all over the US. Oh my goodness, CHK runs up to $10 by September. Drilling can not catch up. CHK moves to $16. The majors realize that nat gas is a prime asset and offer CHK shareholders $30 per share by Christmas.
Sounds really terrible doesn't it!
ouch! EIA Natural Gas Inventory: +69 Bcf vs. +64 Bcf consensus, +65 Bcf last week. Looks like it will knoch gas down about 2 cents. Nut I don't trust the EIA... it is hot as hell in the US.
Moving with the POO is TRUE!