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Yes, as long as PPS stays over around $1.00
But if ALL the warrants expire without being cashed in we're all in big trouble.
Not so sure which way this will go...multiple ways to look at this.
Positives:
- If you believe in SPORT and management this could be last chance to get average PPS down in your portfolio.
- Management doesn't seem to be raising all the $ upfront. This could limit dilution if PPS goes up. Also, if the warrants become in the $ they don't need to exercise the remainder of offering.
- We'll find out soon if they have any positive news to share to drive PPS up before any offering.
Negatives:
- The stock is taking major hit. This means if they need $ now and can't drive price up it's a lot of dilution.
- If they were confident they could drive PPS up with news they would have done it to get warrants in the $. That didn't happen.
- Most of us feel they have the goods, but the most any of us has seen is a CAD of SPORT.
- We run the major risk that the global economy takes a major hit as this unfolds and even if Titan has the goods it won't matter. They could run out of funds or have to sell on the cheap to stay in business.
- It looks like we'll be competing with 2 major players in the future robotic surgery market. It will be that much more difficult for Titan.
I'm stay in but I've lost some confidence in the management team for sure with this. Hopefully management will get back to us now that the filing is done and they can speak again.
Not really a bold assumption at all. Look at the AGM presentation page 20 "Touch panel GUI". Ximedica is hiring a contractor to work on a GUI. Yes, Ximedica is working on other projects, but come on time to wake up.
Not saying J&J/Google won't happen, just saying very possible Titan goes it alone. If that's the case we better hope they blow away doctors and hospitals with SPORT.
With Intuitive & J&J/Google as competitors unless SPORT is night & day better than the other robots it will be crushed.
Like I said, I'm holding tight, but I'm not naive about it. Either management has something in their back pocket or they really are in over their head. We'll find out soon enough. They need money very soon, so either a surprise M&A or the expected further dilution coming any time.
Looks like another round of dilution headed our way. Also looks less and less like J&J/Google will be the M&A partner with Titan. More likely a competitor (I hope I'm wrong).
Ximedica hiring a contractor to work on the GUI for SPORT. I would think if J&J/Google was known to be happening this would be on Google's to do list.
http://www.ximedica.com/About/Careers/InteractionDesignIxDContractor.aspx
Also, I was in the camp that J&J was the instrument manufacture and the reason Titan couldn't disclose who it was. Not so sure of that, unless Titan is trying to throw us off. Look at page 31 of the AGM presentation. It shows the disposable devices which are taken directly from Microline's website.
http://www.microlinesurgical.com/products/controltip
There's such limited space in the IP of robotic surgery that I find it hard to believe there could be many other options out there. Staying L&S, but it's testing my will power. I guess I'll either sink with the ship or see you all in Vegas!
I didn't explain it well.
If PPS stays low through end of year and Titan doesn't have a loan or something up their sleeve. They need to raise more cash we all agree.
Let's say they raise $40MM at let's say $1.25 per share (might be lower) = 32MM newly issued shares. Let's say PPS stays low for next 18 months and Warrants for 12-15, 6-16 & 12-16 are not exercised. That's 15.5MM Warrants expired (some have probably already been exercised though). Then in Jan 2017 PPS goes up on big news and rest of Warrants C,D & E are all exercised. We would have diluted over 16MM shares if this occurs.
I hope they have something up their sleeve or a loan ready to go! Otherwise very possible that further dilution is coming.
I'm long all the way, just hope management is quite & confident for a reason.
Ethicon granted a couple of new robotic stapling patents today. They were filed in 2011 & 2012 so older. Looks like for Intuitive robot, but can be modified to fit any robot I would think?
http://pdfpiw.uspto.gov/.piw?Docid=09072535&homeurl=http%3A%2F%2Fpatft.uspto.gov%2Fnetacgi%2Fnph-Parser%3FSect1%3DPTO2%2526Sect2%3DHITOFF%2526u%3D%25252Fnetahtml%25252FPTO%25252Fsearch-adv.htm%2526r%3D3%2526p%3D1%2526f%3DG%2526l%3D50%2526d%3DPTXT%2526S1%3D%252522robotic%252Bsurgery%252522%2526OS%3D%252522robotic%252Bsurgery%252522%2526RS%3D%252522robotic%252Bsurgery%252522&PageNum=&Rtype=&SectionNum=&idkey=NONE&Input=View+first+page
http://patft.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Parser?Sect1=PTO2&Sect2=HITOFF&u=%2Fnetahtml%2FPTO%2Fsearch-adv.htm&r=2&p=1&f=G&l=50&d=PTXT&S1=%22robotic+surgery%22&OS=%22robotic+surgery%22&RS=%22robotic+surgery%22
J&J/Google is in a quite period as they wait for regulatory approval of the partnership. All the articles stated they expected approval by end of Q2. With that timeline they should be approved any day if they don't run into problems.
This is what I've been patiently waiting for. IMHO once this occurs over the next several months we will start to hear more information. Are J&J/Google working on something on their own, with Titan or with another start up?
This could be why Titan management seems so confident and quite. If they already have something in place and are being told to be tight lipped.
What makes me nervous is the amount of share dilution that will occur if they need another round of financing and the PPS keeps sliding.
Time will tell.
Thanks for the update! So it sounds like they're ahead of schedule then (5 completed robots and 2 nearly complete)? Did the video show the entire completed robot or just inside camera view of instruments working?
Also, in my opinion it's very interesting that the instrument partner did not wish to be named. If it was a small player like Microline why would they not want to be named to get further press?
All speculation on my part...
Medtronic hiring for robot jobs:
http://jobs.medtronic.com/connecticut/quality-assurance/jobid7767162-sr-design-quality-eng-jobs
J&J hiring for robot jobs and specifically calls out instrument design in 2 or 3 of the job postings. May 13th job posting went up, Titan announced signing with partner on April 16th???
http://jobs.jnj.com/search/?q=robotics
This is why they need to raise more $$$$$
http://www1.salary.com/TRANSENTERIX-INC-Executive-Salaries.html
Good luck with your investment. Everyone on this board you keep coming to is betting on Titan Medical and SPORT. You will not change anyone's position and we won't change yours.
I hope we both come out way ahead, I just don't see it ending that way. Time will tell who was correct.
http://www.seefront.com/fileadmin/content/downloads/SeeFront3DTechnology_Presentation_07-2013.pdf
Sony has used this partner to make 3D technology without the need for glasses. Look at page 20 of presentation.
Looks like we will get more of a peak June 9th!
I like the idea of a large TV screen right in front of the surgeon as long as there's no need for 3D glasses. Is there new 3D technology out there that don't require glasses? This will allow for true ergonomics for the surgeon.
Also, look very close and you'll notice a game changing development!!!!! v Right above the surgeon hand controls and below the monitor is a screen with the patients MRI image!!!!!!
Thanks for pointing that out scalpel, you are correct.
I still feel all the signs point towards a M&A. If not we have some major players with MAJOR funds to compete with and possible dilution of our shares to keep SPORT moving.
I can't see a reason management would stay so quite unless they knew they had an ace up their sleeve. They will need additional funds through one of the channels discussed at length in other posts. I would hope management isn't so confident that they can release some information at the 11th hour and the PPS will put warrants in the green. If that doesn't work it's dilution of shares again.
I think we hear some major news before year end or I'll start to panic like some others here have done.
Also notice Dr. Fowler said "They will focus on automation and navigation..."
Why does he say they instead of "we will focus"? Does he know what's coming and that was a slip???
Later he says "That's how we anticipate that it will be improved over time."
He could just mean Ximedica when he says they. I would think if I spent the last 7 years working on a major project I would say "we will focus on".
All IMHO. Long & Strong!
Great find again! I was leaning toward a Medtronic or Stryker M&A and now this article leans me back to J&J/Google.
Who knows what will happen, but if it's not J&J/Google then Titan will be going head to head with them. They both are speaking the same language.
J&J has said they will come to market with a more flexible, affordable and mobile robot. Google will handle the software side of the project. This is what Google does best.
The J&J/Google deal is supposed to close in the 2nd quarter. I wonder if we may hear something shortly after that deal closes? Both these companies will want to start working to integrate their technology onto SPORT if they are looking to acquire SPORT.
This is what stood out to me from the article.
“All of the other advances are going to be software related,” he explained. “They will focus on automation and navigation to enable the computer assisted surgical device to help surgeons do better operations. All of that will be available through software upgrades on the platform. That’s how we anticipate that it will be improved over time.”
My bad, you are correct.
My thoughts on this are why would any of the large players become a "supplier" of Titan for disposable devices. They would just purchase them outright or partner and offer their sales force for a percentage of profits.
On the other hand I scratch my head as to why the secrecy of who the instrument supplier is. They named the company that will develop the training, no secret there. Why so secretive on who will develop and supply instruments? Unless the supplier asked to not be named?
This company drives me crazy sometimes, but I do believe it will all be worth the wait in the long run.
Nope...unless the "partner" turns out to be Medtronic, J&J, Olympus or one of the other very large players. Which we all know would likely lead down the path of an acquisition.
If the partner is Microline or another small player this thing doesn't move a penny.
Great find. Note that the application was done May 12, 2011. They've been working on this for a while.
I briefly glanced through and if I'm reading correctly this is game changing.
1 - I disagree that the arms will be more expensive. The way I read it the instrument at the very tip will be disposable & the arm reusable. Intuitive is an all in one arm & instrument good for 10 uses and disposed of. If SPORT has a reusable arm that's good for 25 or 50 cases it should be a cost savings. Just buy new tips for each case and reuse arms. Only issue is how long the inner working cables last before snapping. All surgeons on this board have probably had an intuitive cable snap on them, it just happens as the cables weaken.
2 - This leads me to believe that Microline is the partner for instruments. Microline instruments work the same way (reusable handle & shaft with a disposable instrument at tip that screws on).
3 - How the software integrates with the arm & instrument with all the movement described will be key. SPORT needs to feel natural to the user. Can't have to clutch and switch constantly as it will be too confusing. All the movement described is a game changer, but needs to work seamlessly and that software programming won't be easy.
4 - The patents alone are worth more than the current PPS. This is getting ridiculous.
I'm very excited seeing this, but execution from management is key. The risk is in management dropping the ball on this (which I don't see happening). After seeing this I understand how Titan was able to sign on such an impressive Surgeon Advisory Board. They have all seen SPORT and what it's potential is and believe in the technology. They wouldn't put their name behind it if they didn't think it was a game changer.
Great find and very exciting as the curtains continue to be pulled back little by little!
Thanks for the reply. This is what I've been waiting for because I think once the deal is approved more news will start to flow.
I agree, I'm not convinced Titan is in play with this deal. Why would Titan have signed a deal with an instrument manufacture if it knew J&J/Google was taking over?
I just think the picture will start to become more clear once more news starts to flow in the robotics sector.
Also, I've seen several people post that the trading volume and PPS would be going way up if there was a acquisition in play. Their theory was that news of this would leak and volume would be way up.
Not at all true. The latest example is the J&J/Google partnership. This came out of left field and shocked a lot of people including Intuitive I promise you.
This is why I laugh at the people on this board saying wait until it gets to $1 to buy back in. I believe in the technology and what it can do. Can Titan fail, of course! I'm long and not taking the chance of missing the jump over .20 per share.
If an announcement comes in that one of the big players is buying Titan this will pop and never look back.
All a big if, but I'm not taking the chance of missing out.
Did you see an announcement that the J&J/Google approval is close? All I've seen is should close by end of Q2. Nothing on J&J/Google's end can move forward until the deal is approved. Once it is I think we'll start to hear some news come out from them.
Not sure if it would involve Titan or not, but at least more news that will give us some insight hopefully.
Great find. Dr. Chris Pieczonka is partners with Dr. David Albala at Crouse Hospital in New York.
Dr. Albala was on the SAB until last year and still maybe part of the test group of surgeons. Crouse Hospital is still listed as a partner on Titans website. If they were getting a SPORT for testing by year end at Crouse Dr. Albala would know about it.
Puzzle pieces starting to fit possibly. All speculation, but too many pieces are starting to fit IMHO.
Titan does 2 offerings back to back in Feb 2014 for $11MM and again in April 2014 for $25.5MM. Someone wanted in for them to do this back to back.
May 2014 J&J tells analysts at their investors day that they are investing heavily into a robotic program. Goal is a less expensive more user friendly and smaller robot.
Titan has been extremely tight lipped about everything they do with no worries about short term shareholder value. If the $36MM that went in was from private investors they would be screaming for return. J&J would have ZERO concerns about their short term investment as long as progress is made on the robot.
If J&J is making a play at Titan, no way this makes it too much longer. J&J and Google will want to make their own tweaks to SPORT before it ever gets to market.
If we don't hear something by year end Titan has another major competitor in J&J/Google to deal with. I think Titan in bought out within 12 months (JMHO).
Long & Strong
Here's one of many articles that speaks to Google not working on the robotic hardware. We'll see as this takes shape, but it still sounds like J&J needs a robot from outside or build on their own.
http://www.mercurynews.com/60-second-business-break/ci_27800770/biz-break-google-make-surgical-robots-challenging-intuitive
Here's the main part for those who don't wish to read the entire atricle.
Google stressed that the life sciences team at Google X will only be providing software and sensors for the proposed systems, with J&J's Ethicon unit handling the rest of work. The Mountain View company's robotics arm -- Google acquired robotics firm Boston Dynamics in late 2013 -- will not be involved.
A lot of the articles also spoke about J&J saying they want to bring a differentiated robot to market that's smaller, more flexible and affordable.
Who do we know that already has a prototype that fits all this?????
Here's one of many articles that speaks to Google not working on the robotic hardware. We'll see as this takes shape, but it still sounds like J&J needs a robot from outside or build on their own.
http://www.mercurynews.com/60-second-business-break/ci_27800770/biz-break-google-make-surgical-robots-challenging-intuitive
Here's the main part for those who don't wish to read the entire atricle.
Google stressed that the life sciences team at Google X will only be providing software and sensors for the proposed systems, with J&J's Ethicon unit handling the rest of work. The Mountain View company's robotics arm -- Google acquired robotics firm Boston Dynamics in late 2013 -- will not be involved.
A lot of the articles as spoke about J&J saying they want to bring a differentiated robot to market that's smaller, more flexible and affordable.
Who do we know that already has a prototype that fits all this?????
http://www.titanmedicalinc.com/investor-relations/faqs/
Very last question at the very bottom of page.
Anyone making it to the June 9th annual meeting? I hope we have a few people that make it so we can get some better insight into what's going on.
On another note IMHO the Google J&J partnership is a good thing. Google came out and said their role in the partnership will only be for software and sensor technology. J&J will take care of the robot portion. This only speeds up the need for a robot for J&J.
It also puts Medtronic/Covidien on notice that they need to make some moves sooner than later.
I agree completely and am not implying there's anything shady going on. I still strongly believe in the technology and what it can do.
I'm starting to see some of the concern others have posted about managements lack of transparency. When your accountant asks for a public corporation ID number and is told they won't disclose that information it's a little strange. This is a public company and there should be no reason not to give that number out to shareholders.
Still long and strong...just a little concerned with management.
Sorry guys, messed up the date. It's Tuesday May 12th not the 10th that's a Sunday!
I feel confident that Titan is for real. The SAB would not put their names on a sham company, Ximedica would be ruined and Fowler would make a joke of his reputation.
I did get a little nervous about this email though from my accountant:
The Titan Medical CFO is correct. It was my understanding that if the foreign entity did not have a U.S. employer identification number (which they would have to do if they did any business in the U.S.), then, we needed the Canadian corporation identification number. It appears that we do NOT need that number. I do, however, find it strange that he wouldn’t provide it regardless of whether or not it is needed. This is not the kind of thing that should be confidential, especially to a shareholder. I don’t want to sound like an alarmist, but, that raises a red flag for me. My main concern would just be for you to make sure that this company is an actual company and not some kind of scam.
Again, I'm in for the long term, but I'm starting to have concerns with some of the management and their knowledge of running a company.
Doesn't mean they won't release an update earlier. Just don't hold your breath the way they are with information!
I spoke with Randall last week about some questions my accountant had. He told me the next "planned" update is the Q1 update scheduled for May 10th.
There's more upside than you think. This was just released and is in addition to a VA contract from last year.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/leerink-intuitive-surgicals-defense-department-203553537.html
Blackberry made it to market before the iPhone and look where that device is now. What's your point?
Intuitive would be crazy not to be keeping a VERY close eye on Titan at this point. Intuitive has taken a fair amount of market share from Covidien and J&J. It has hurt those companies, but not devastated them because of the diversification and size of both companies.
Intuitive is a one trick pony as of right now. If Covidien or J&J gets into the robotic surgery market with a solid technology watch out. This is why I think Intuitive has to be a player for Titan once they get a little closer to market.
My question is would regulators allow Intuitive to purchase Titan or would it be considered a monopoly?
I was just reviewing and saw the same. It just comes down to hitting the milestones. If they deliver on the milestones they run out of funds heading into human trials. If they have delivered on time up til then warrants will be exercised and we'll all be fine with no further dilution.
Also, if The upcoming financial conference draws any interest it should increase share price. Only time will tell if management delivers on goals.
Let's relax for the next 6 weeks and see if they meet the timeline of 1st milestone.
I'm still leaning toward a partnership or buyout and no need for Titan to worry about sales force. All three majors are actively looking to enter this fast growing market. I'm sure Titan has meet with all 3 companies already.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/martinbuehler
https://www.linkedin.com/pub/brian-schmitz/a/144/23
https://jobs.jnj.com/job/Cincinnati-Lead-Systems-Engineer-Surgical-Robotics-Job-OH-45201/241332500/
Which company will it be or will Titan go it alone????? I just feel one of these 3 will want a great product already further down the path to approval. All have the $$$ to make it happen.
All 3 companies also have surgical technology that can be added to the end of the snake arms. So if Titan is working on adding end effector devices right now for new procedures now would be the time to look at partnerships.
JMHO
I don't want them to sell, but I think you may be correct.
I think I read that they just spent time in NY meeting with investment firms and doing a road show.
Is it possible while there they took a trip to NJ (30 minute drive!) to show their progress to one of the big boys?
You really do make me laugh and I enjoy your contribution to this board. Transenterix may sell to one of the large companies and make you some money. The big companies can afford to gamble and lose sometimes.
You speak about a delay and why would someone invest in a company with a longer delay. BECAUSE ONE IS A MUCH SUPERIOR LONG TERM PRODUCT. If I had the money and Ferrari was delayed 2 years on a great car or I could get a Yugo in 6 months I'd wait.
I'm not saying Surgibot will be a POS or that Titan is going to be the next great robot. We just don't know the outcome yet.
I will tell you from the video of the Surgibot I saw it looks clumsy and the camera movement system is a complete joke. Most surgeons I work with want to reduce the # of movements and instrument exchanges. To have to remove your hands from the instruments to adjust the camera is crazy. That's not to say a company won't see value and purchase them and make modifications to Surgibot.
Good luck with your investment and congratulations on a great day of trading.
I'm glad to read most on here are hanging strong. I haven't sold a single share and won't as I'm long on Titan. They've just grown the market potential exponentially, but the timeline does suck.
Just wanted to show that the SAB is top notch and would not be backing a company that's a pump & dump. See this link and notice who's Chair of AAGL going on right now!!!!
http://www.aagl.org/globalcongress/
GO TITAN, LONG & STRONG!!!!
You & your guy may be right, who knows. It's all a gamble. I'll keep all my chips on Titan though. I had a friend that sold the spyder system and said it sucked. He sold all of 2 surgeons on using it and one was a paid consultant! Maybe they have it right finally, but I wouldn't bet on it.
One major advantage of Sport is the surgeon sitting down. Ask any forward thinking surgeon and they'll tell you. Reimbursement is going down for surgeons, which means they'll need to work longer. Sport and Intuitive for that matter are a way to prolong their career. This is one of the advantages not spoken about a lot. Ask a surgeon how their body feels after a full day of cases and most will say they feel like they've had a full work out (not in a good way!). Ask a surgeon after a full day of robotic cases and they say they feel great except their forehead is asleep from leaning into the console.
Just my 2 cents, but what you and your guy see as a disadvantage most surgeons see as a added few years to their career.
Go Titan! Long and strong!
I don't post often, but this is at least the 2nd time you've stated this. I'm also "on the front lines" and you have no clue what you're talking about. The reason single port hasn't taken off is because the equipment on the market hasn't allowed it.
I speak with General, GYN, Colorectal & Urology surgeons everyday in the OR. They would love to do single port, but need better/more functional equipment to do so.
Is Sport that equipment? Only time will tell. But for you to state that the market potiental for single port is 5% is just crazy. Just like Intuitive created demand from patients for "the robot" so will the company that developes a functional single port system.
Covidien & J&J both said robotic surgery would be a niche market when it started. I bet they both regret not buying Intuitive years ago when they had the chance.
If Titan does this right it will be big, but it's still a big if.