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also we cant expect him to show his hand on live tv for all the haters to jump on. he strikes me as a guy who understands the value of shareholder rights and common sense, and again, he has already started working on it. It's already March practically.
good summary. at least he's on it. and bipartisan is a word used but doesnt mean squat.
wow. should have recused eom
fair enough, it would seem to benefit Watt to bow out quietly should the time come as to not expose some possibly unsanitary communication he surely had with lew and co over the years. BUT ya never know. dems have not been cooperative so far on anything over the last few months. Mel is a progressive through and through. Maybe Ben Carson will have some sway should there be need.
yes, i remember that statement vividly. trouble is, that was a different time and his man was the boss. Now, not so much.
so when would an 'independent' Watt pull the plug on the charade? or does he need to be replaced?
see your point re Watt. under correctly executed conservatorship Watt is untouchable, and previous doj/courts argued exactly that, even though we know he was secretly taking orders from Lew. Ultimate irony would be that when Mnuchin sends Watt instructions that Watt ignores them as 'conservator' in chief!
Agreed. Trump and munchkin will look to the dissenting opinion of judge brown.
joey diphard says buy the dip
feels nice to have this appeal out of the way. all that listened to their review call last year knew that millet was def a flake ginsburg a maybe at best and brown a badass. fast forward 12 months, almost, and bam. there ya have it 2 to 1. fortunately, Sweeney wouldnt be taking this long and be this thorough if she was gonna toss. cmon. AND we have Munchkin. AND wind down wind up and receivership are hopefully a distant memory. AND we have cheaper shares to accumulate so yea.
ditto. eom
Also, the appeals court did not read any of the newly unsealed documents (i believe).
spot on. Browns opinion says it all. Tsy can now move forward and sort of make it seem like we arent a banana republic by doing the common sense thing. This thing will go straight back to court for eternity otherwise and even the courts dont want that.
I would agree as of right now yes.
judge brown's dissent leaves perfect ammo for sweeney WITH THE NEW UNSEALED DOCS) to make the situation right OR Mncuhin can pick up his pen. OR both.
well, pity the sweep isnt revoked but the gov was never going to be liable for all that back divvy money. no way. Brown gives an opportunity to make things right going forward however.
yea, or in one sentence, they are sending the thing back to court?
OBIT get in here now eom
it can go both ways. but preferably not become a national melodrama for the hooks and daggers.
fannie investors dont want the public spotlight. srsly. let the lemmings look when it s all said and done.
always grateful for your postings navy. trustworthy.eom.
indeed. so what makes the prefs so attractive as the common price stalled??
agreed. what is the angle of owning preferreds? well, originally berk was investing in the run off wind down wind up whatever u wanna call it liquidation thesis where preffs would have had to be made whole....unless that is totally wrong to imagine. is he speculating on preffs becoming converted to commons?? wonder....
the preffs have been running...why?
commons V preferred. let's discuss.
it would seem that to a certain extent, the thesis for release and recap is equal for both.
however, one cant forget that the preferred holders such as Berko are looking for a payback from tsy as a major end goal. Preferred holders believe that financial retributions will be inbound from tsy for lost dividends due to net worth sweep.
common holders, such as ackman, have calculated a thesis to where even if the warrants are fully exercised the commons could trade in the 20s after all is said and done. 'All' that needs to occur is an end of the net worth sweep and a recap plan.
so most of you already know all this. but, how can both prefs and commons succeed? as we also know, fairholme is not challenging the warrants. in fact, no case atm is challenging warrants. Afterall, dont prefs sort of want warrants to be exercised in the hope that those funds could provide recap funding as well as perhaps avenues to pay back lost dividends?
well that's not going to happen. there is no way gov pays back prefs a dime with tsy money OR warrant money. no chance. To fully win, pref holders need back divvy money (since prefs have 'limitedd upside') which will only come from an agreed upon recap plan. that is a reach. feel free to time stamp this. those who think one day a court will rule that pref holders are privvy to back dividends are misguided. commons on the other hand simply need to end the NWS and pray that the warrants are somehow crimped or voided all together. Tsy can allow a capital raise to occur at much higher prices which could generate plenty of recap money easily.
feel free to disagree, but while Berk and Ack both want an end to the sweep now, after that would occur, they will no longer be in the same boat. think commons are the way to go long term, and even though Berk and Mnuchin know each other from the shld BOD and lampert was roomies with mncuhin in college (read that somewhere) not so sure mnuchin can pull out a preff victory if that is indeed what he intends to do.
this investment is still very complex. politics has made anything trump wants to get done the soup of the day for the rest of DC feast on. expecting a 'payout' from tsy seems audacious even if it is just under law.
kerrisdale capital short hit piece today?
been reading Calabria s tweets for years now. he never struck me as a wind down guy quite the opposite. he helped write hera and he himself said he thinks the conservatorship and networth sweep not what was intended by hera authors....
thx alot Obit eom
Q for Obit,
do you know what Professor Epstein's stance is on the warrants? there is no case ongoing that challenges them in particular correct? The Washington federal case was right?. Do you know the status of it?
hope so. but i dont hear singing and cant see a fat lady atm.
what they say? eom
so now the MBA is suggesting a utility model. damn. Stevens must be devasted lol.
seems like a hop and s skip in the right direction.
well, the past was the past, and we know who was in control i.e. the previous tsy sec et al. If Mnuchin were to vocally back it, then it could have a real shot this time.
yea, he strikes me as a stand up guy, so the bill had me scratching my head initially.
ohhh ok thanks for the explanation. In that case, this could be a great bill for shareholders.
Capuano is on video telling Lew they paid the money back. Is he confused now?
that would be a very awesome common sense way. although preferably the warrants are deemed null and void by sweeney in between due to laws.
Fully agree with the trump antagonism re fnma freedom. Also, worthy of note, the foia bill of chaffetz. If that passed, could the Sweeney docs simply be foiad?
Thanks much. Eom
Ober what's your opinion on hr 491 being re deployed by Capuano? Strategic or sneaky?