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No, I agree that all-or-none blocks say very little about the typical investor sentiment. My point is that large holders who wish to sell need the liquidity provided by such orders to avoid collapsing the share price with their transactions.
No such sells have taken place, consequently I believe that no such selling pressure from large holders exists.
The information content of that fact is open to speculation. I believe that it suggests that the company has resolved some near-term issues facing it.
The orders are not unfillable. Any market maker can sell me shares in that quantity quite easily. Even without going short, a number of small sell orders can be aggregated by a market maker and the orders filled if there is sufficient selling interest.
Rather, what failure to fill the orders demonstrates to me is that there are no large holders actively looking to unload their positions.
You might say that this is to be expected, given the upcoming CES. Individual investors may reasonably expect that the price will rise in anticipation of that event's news releases.
On the other hand, there is the possibility, constantly repeated by the bashers on Raging Bull, that the company will face a finacial crisis due to its upcoming debt repayment dates and/or the failure to generate significant cash from ongoing operations and new products.
There are a number of vendors and business service suppliers to whom e.Digital has issued shares in quantities that could easily fill my orders. Others have complained that such shares represent a huge overhang which will be "dumped" when demand rises in the stock. My orders represent exactly that necessary demand, yet none of these parties are selling their positions.
Why not?
To me the answer is that these parties, who actually do have access to "inside" information, believe that the stock will rise well above the current level. This is the strongest evidence I can uncover that the company will resolve its financial issues on favorable terms and that it has good business prospects.
As most here know I have long campaigned for insiders to begin purchasing shares in the open market as a signal to the investment community that prospects are good. No such purchases have occured. Consequently one is left with uncertainty over the true state of those prospects.
Are insiders not buying because they have no financial resources to do so, because they do not share my optimism for the company's prospects or because they may feel constrained by actual knowledge that such prospects are good but that they would be trading on such information?
There is no way to determine the answer to this question.
Consequently I decided to do my own experiment with large block orders. It was prompted by the ease with which the market absorbed the 300,000 share block last week.
Essentially what I am doing is forcing the market to reveal the intentions of other insiders with current large holdings (vendors, business service suppliers.)
Are they holding simply because there is insufficient liquidity to sell their blocks? Or (my contention) because conditions at the company are much better than the bashers would have you believe?
Hence my orders and report of their price level to this forum.
Thanks guys. It does get a little discouraging when I am constantly attacked on message boards for simply being an investor and posting my opinions about this company and its prospects.
Let me make something clear to all.
I am not advocating that anyone else buy the stock here, nor do I question the rationale of anyone who sells.
I can understand anyone giving up after all of the disappointments we have endured.
This is a high risk stock and only those with high risk tolerance should buy it. Probably the most prudent course for most would be to see how the IFE business develops, what (if anything) develops at CES and how the current debt situation is resolved.
The right answers to those three questions would lower the risk substantially, but the price at that point would likely be substantially higher than the current level.
It happens that I have a large portfolio which is well diversified in other stocks and I can absorb the risk inherent in this stock, so I do not need to wait for those answers.
Each person has to address that issue in view of their own circumstances.
Good luck to all.
Gary, your answers:
1. No, I am not an insider nor have I participated in any company financing.
2. No, I have no "inside" information. I know only what is publicly available, but read all of the speculation posted by others and have formed my own opinion about its validity.
3. I have never claimed on this message board (or any other) any specific share ownership totals and I have no interest in disclosing that number.
4. No, I am not "showing off" but rather illustrating a portion of my open buy orders to others to demonstrate that there is no significant selling pressure in this stock at this time. Some may find such information interesting.
5. I have held this stock for more than five years now and believe that it is currently priced at a level which affords far more upside potential than downside risk (to a person with my level of risk tolerance.)
6. My friends make their own decisions on their own investments. Frankly, I really don't care whether they buy or sell the stock.
Let's take one day (or penny) at a time!
I have moved my 100,000 share all-or-none buy orders up to .21, which should establish a new floor at that level.
Yes, just as I said: We all have the right to make suggestions to management.
If you must know, my success in past academic, business and investment activities is a portion of the basis for my self-esteem.
My ownership of this company's stock gives me the right to suggest a course of action to the management and board. Every shareholder has the same right. You may have other suggestions for management and the board and I urge you to voice those ideas directly to the company.
I have not listed very many of my conversations with the company's management but I assure you that I have had many such contacts which have, in my opinion, benefited the company or avoided problems.
My public position on the proxy vote occurred because I felt that the shareholders need to express their views on the matter of insider share purchases. Few would dispute that insider purchases are a bullish sign for any company. I would like to see such actions take place here.
No, D.inkie, the fact that I have posted my displeasure with the actions of the company's Board of Directors has nothing to do with my confidence in the future of the company. That confidence is based upon the technology and the market opportunities, not the management.
I have publicly stated that the current Board (with the exception of Diaz) has hurt the share price by failing to buy shares in the open market. Such purchases would have bolstered the stock price at a critical time in the company's history. I have expressed this opinion in private correspondence to the board members and to management numerous times over the past three years. (By the way, my opinion about the damage done to the share price by the lack of support from the board is shared by many other large shareholders in this company.) This year I decided to voice my concerns publicly.
This lack of support was, in my opinion, one of the key contributors to the collapse of the share price over the past year. Consequently the capital which the company might have generated from the sale of the registered stock was sharply reduced. Had the company been able to sell the 20 million shares for $1.25/share to $1.50/share as was expected, the company would be sitting on sufficient cash to effectively roll out the new products in retail channels. Instead, the lack of cash meant that the company was forced to greatly scale back its retail strategy to the point that only 1,000 units of the Odyssey 1000 could be produced in the initial order.
How much difference would there have been in the current share price and in the company's financial prospects if the Odyssey 1000 had been available at national retailers when the Parade cover story took place?
No, I still believe that we as shareholders would be well-served by a change in the board membership (including Fred Falk and Robert Putnam) but we have what we have. The board is not going to change in the near future, much though I might want that to happen. However, the stock remains a great value (to me) at these prices.
With a change in the board (to a group which had a growing stake in share ownership through open market purchases) I believe that the stock would be worth far more than its current potential.
My share position and my purchase orders speak to my belief in the company. I wish that I could say the same for the current board members.
No D.inkie, it's called confidence at the current share price.
Why do you think that I post the fact that my orders are "all or none" for such large blocks? For the simple reason that it demonstrates when such orders fill that I was not just posting imaginary buy orders.
At this price the upside opportunity so out-weighs the downside risk that it is worthwhile for me to step in with large orders, in my opinion.
I haven't posted any suggestions to others to follow my example. Everyone has their own risk tolerance level. Mine is quite high for this stock at this price.
I own quite a bit already. I wonder what the reaction would be if I added an all-or-none buy for 1,000,000 shares at .20?
Would that make them move up the bid/ask or would it encourage some big block to unload here?
Might be a worthwhile test.
Just adjusted all of my block buy prices down to .20, thereby forming a pretty solid floor of support here at that price.
Of course, I would be happy to have those orders filled, but I doubt that the market makers will let go of that much stock at those prices.
I put another all-or-none buy for 100,000 shares at .20 as well. My "floor" for the stock is now .20
Again, there is obviously no selling pressure here from the company or any of those to whom it has sold shares.
Just changed a couple of my buy orders to all-or-none at .21 (100,000 shares each). Let's see how the market makers react.
You are welcome. The Microsoft update site is a nice one to check on a regular basis. If you run Internet Explorer it automatically checks for any security updates and will download those at no cost.
jabber, just go to the Microsoft operating system support page and download the self-installing service pack for Windows 98.
Version 2 supports USB ports better than Version 1 of Win98 and contains a lot of bug repairs as well.
If you are using Internet Explorer, just click on Tools, then Windows Update to take you to the right page. Once there click on Product Updates and you should see the downloads listed.
This link should also take you there:
http://windowsupdate.microsoft.com/
It just keeps trading between .195 and .20 despite a ton of buy orders sitting at .19, .18 and .17
My open (unrestricted in fill size) buy orders are 150,000 shares at .19 and I have another all-or-none order for 100,000 shares at that same price.
And I have a lot more orders at lower prices, so the market makers are well-aware of the deep demand for the company's shares at those prices.
But the price won't budge the half-cent needed to fill those orders.
Once again, it should be clear to all that EDIG is not "dumping" shares into the open market, nor are any of those to whom the company has sold shares directly.
That is quite possible, probably more likely than that they are holding larger "long" positions in anticipation of a CES run.
I guess the market makers don't follow the sell signals of wm_wallace2000!
Seriously, I really don't think that market makers hold inventory for very long as a rule. Usually they clear out any surplus stock in their positions on a regular basis.
Remember, these market makers are dealing in hundreds (and in many cases, thousands) of stocks. And a low-priced stock is not likely to get much special attention, in my opinion.
My theory is that we are just at a real steady-state price here, pending developments - not enough buyers willing to buy now, even if it means bidding up the price and no sellers anxious to get out. The price spread this week has rarely been more that one cent and we have not touched .19 on the bid even once.
Well, it's pretty clear that no one has put in a market sell order for a long time, as your experience the other day demonstrated. If anyone did so, at least some of my buy orders would likely have been triggered.
My point is just that there is certainly no urgency on the part of anyone to sell any significant number of shares. And judging from the ease with which a 300,000 share block was digested the other day, the market makers are quite willing to hold an inventory of this stock.
Meanwhile my orders are providing an effective floor to the share price here.
It seems to be a pretty strong base. I have buy orders in for 250,000 shares at .19 (a 100,000 "all or none" and 150,000 in market quantities) but have not seen the bid side slip below .195
And below those orders I have a lot more at just slightly lower prices.
The fact that none have been filled again gives evidence that no selling pressure exists. Consequently either the company has not sold any more shares or if it did, the buyers are holding on to those shares very tightly.
No one is selling. I now have three 100,000 share "all or none" buy orders sitting at .19 and the market makers won't grab any of that cash.
Interesting.
I just bumped up the price of one of my 100,000 share orders by half a penny and made it "all or none" to see if there is any selling pressure out there.
My guess is that it was a market maker that bought the 300,000 share block (at .20) from my friend yesterday and then that market maker simply worked the stock the balance of the day, distributing those shares at 20.5 cents for a small profit. This kept the price in a very narrow range.
That same process may be continuing today.
For several days I have had orders in place (in quantities far larger than the big block that was sold yesterday) at various prices from 0.5 cents to 1.5 cents below the current price, yet have not seen a dip to those levels.
That tells me that no large blocks are being offered by the company or by anyone to whom the company has issued shares.
There is simply no selling pressure (at this point) to drive down the price, nor is there any significant buying interest above the current price.
I agree. Comments from the board administrator about the investment here (and especially about the rationality of the investors in this, or any other, stock) are really inappropriate.
By the way, I still feel that Matt should send a direct communication to the Agora board in which he apologizes for his slanderous comments about that message board.
Well, if anyone else dumps shares and it drives down the price I'll buy them all. I'm not concerned.
There are always rumors floating around about EDIG. Usually they have no substance.
If I knew any more I would post it.
No, I know who sold the shares. It was a single block.
I asked the person (a long-term friend) if anything caused them to sell and they would not explain other than to say that something specific prompted it.
Possibly bad news or another buying opportunity?
I am leaving my buy orders intact.
I notice that my comments regarding a certain RB refuge and all of that poster's messages are both gone from this board.
Glad to see that someone is monitoring this board carefully!
I do, and have a large open order in (at the WmWallace2000 sell price, of course!)
Here is something really strange.
As donatos points out in his message, the three Odyssey versions have varying dimensions (in mm):
7-22-02 Odyssey version 110x73x22.8
Current Odyssey version 111.5x73.5x27.6
CPR MPIO HD100 version 118x77x19.5
Something about the MPIO dimensions looked familiar so I checked the EDIG website and found this:
Treo 15:
Features:
15 GB embedded hard drive
8-minute anti-skip protection
Rechargeable Li-Ion battery
Pocket-sized and lightweight
Large, easy-to-read LCD display
Supports MP3 and Windows Media™ files
Fully upgradeable firmware
USB interface
e.Digital's Smart Song Selection™ allows for file navigation while listening
Battery capable of playing for up to 12 hours with a single charge
Compact, user-friendly design
Universal Fast Charger capable of fully replenishing battery life in under 3 hours
Stylish case
Large capacity can be used to store and/or transfer data files as well as music
Ships with MusicMatch Jukebox Software and e.Digital Music Explorer™ software for music and file management
180-day limited warranty*
Standard Accessories:
Koss™ stereo earphones
Mini-USB cable
Carrying case
Universal DC adaptor/battery charger
Lithium-Ion rechargeable battery
Easy-to-Use PC software
User's Guide
Technical Specifications:
15 GB embedded hard drive
Over 225 hours of audio content, encoded at 128Kb/s (approximately 5000 tracks)
16-bit DSP running at 150MHz.
8 MB DRAM Buffer
Signal to Noise Ratio: >90dB
Frequency Response: 20Hz - 20kHz
MicroOS™ 2.0 operating system
Large, crisp display (100 x 64 pixel bitmapped LCD)
Supports encoding rates of up to 320Kb/s
Lower bit rates are supported for increased playing time
5 band equalizer with 5 pre-sets (Jazz, Rock, Classical, Pop, Flat) and one user defined setting
MP3 and Windows Media™ file playback and transfer
Lithium-Ion rechargeable battery, 3.7V/1100mAh, capable of approximately ten hours of continuous playback
Multiple play modes (normal, shuffle, repeat, intro)
Audio out jack – standard 3.5mm
Powered by e.Digital’s MicroOS™ 2.0 operating system
Requires Windows 98 Second Edition, ME, 2000, or XP PC operating system
Dimensions:
118mm W x 19.5mm H x 77mm D (0.77 in. x 4.63 in. x 3.03 in.)
Note that the dimensions are identical to that of the MPIO HD100 and so are several other features:
HD100 HDD type MP3 Player
Smart Feature and light weight(Pocket size)
20GB Internal Meory(HDD)
MP3/WMA/ASF Player
8 min. anti-skip protection
7-line Full Graphic LCD with Blue backlight
12hours playing time(Built in Li-Ion battery)
3hours quick charge
Fastest download speed through USB(6Mbps)
Easy download S/W for Windows 98/2000/XP, Mac OS X
Plug-in S/W for Windows media player, Itunes for Mac
Real audio jukebox for Encoding and Playing MP3/WMA files
size (118w x 77H x 19.5D)mm
Lieferung ca. Dezember 2002
Could the CPR Handels AG website have mixed up the specifications from the Treo with those of the new Odyssey-clone?
Looks that way to me.
That tells me that the MPIO photo was probably prepared back in July/August (when the Parade photo was taken apparently.)
But who knows?
The mystery and suspense are building!
Interesting - so the MPIO version is taller, wider but not as deep as our versions. It does seem strange that the players would have different external dimensions - unless there are more OEM versions coming out that use the EDIG dimensions.
We need LGJ to add this latest version to his great photo comparison posts.
It could also be true that the German website is using a photo of an earlier verision of the HD-100, prepared at the same time as the original Odyssey 1000 version, since the product is listed as being available in December.
Also, the specifications may not be complete since the product is actually not being sold yet.
Their final (released) version may be identical to our version.
The MPIO HD-100 specifications do not mention VoiceNav or voice recording functions. That may explaine the difference in overall dimensions, since both of these features require a microphone and more circuitry.
MPIO HD100 Specifications vs Odyssey 1000 Specifications
From the CPR Handels AG website:
HD100 HDD type MP3 Player
Smart Feature and light weight(Pocket size)
20GB Internal Meory(HDD)
MP3/WMA/ASF Player
8 min. anti-skip protection
7-line Full Graphic LCD with Blue backlight
12hours playing time(Built in Li-Ion battery)
3hours quick charge
Fastest download speed through USB(6Mbps)
Easy download S/W for Windows 98/2000/XP, Mac OS X
Plug-in S/W for Windows media player, Itunes for Mac
Real audio jukebox for Encoding and Playing MP3/WMA files
size (118w x 77H x 19.5D)mm
Lieferung ca. Dezember 2002
Compare this to the Odyssey 1000 specifications (from EDIG's website):
Features
20 GB hard drive holds up to 500 CD’s worth of music
High-speed download (Up to 8 MB per second with USB 2.0*)
MP3 & Windows Media™ music file playback
FREE Music Files already loaded!
Plenty of space to store music, photos, games, and other data
VoiceNav – Just Say It to Play It!
Anti-skip Protection - Up to 8 minutes
FM tuner w/ 12 Available station presets
Rechargeable battery with long battery Life
Easy-to-use scroll wheel
Digital voice recorder
Built-in mic for recording lectures, meetings
Be your own DJ with playlists
Normal, shuffle, repeat & intro play modes
Large, Blue-Green backlit LCD
Programmable equalizer
SRS Labs WOW Effect - A rich, 3-D Listening Experience
Standard Accessories:
Carrying Case
Collapsible stereo headphones
Mini-USB 2.0 Cable*
RCA Stereo Adaptor Cable
Free preloaded music
Installation CD and quick start guide
Universal DC adaptor/battery charger
e.Digital Music Explorer software for PC
Specifications:
Typical USB 2.0 transfer/write rate: 5.5 ~ 8 MBps
Signal to Noise Ratio: 80db
Audio Output: Minimum 50mW
Size: 2.9 x 4.4 x 1 in (73.5 x 111.5 x 27.6MM)
Weight: 7 oz.
Lithium Ion Rechargeable Battery
Appears as “Mass Storage Device” on your PC
Powered by e.Digital's MicroOS™ 2.0 operating system
Minimum System Requirements:
Windows 98SE, ME, 2000, or XP
Pentium-class processor 233 MHz or higher
At least 64 MB RAM
At least 90 MB free disk space
At least one available USB port* (2.0 or 1.1)
CD-ROM Drive
The dimensions are different, which seems odd to me.
Perhaps one of the websites has the wrong information on the size of the unit since they seem very similar visually:
http://www.calweb.com/~doncheri/ody.htm