The dark side
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No Capital gains tax, Marijuana in the budget 9.6 million and talks about the tax.
Beautiful I know a lot of the longs here were buying in the depths of panic and all hell breaking lose good job!
This is the most oversold this stock has ever been in terms of RSI since 2014. On what?
This guy posted on Twitter he is shorting Canopy so take this with a grain of salt. We all know they can't even fill the medical market how are they going to sell 665,000 kg's in a couple years? 100's of thousands of sq feet don't even come close .
It could happen I guess. That's a good way to piss off a lot of people really quickly. Luckily we have the tfsa. The APH CEO believed the sell was because of this tax threat.
I hope it doesn't happen. But yes I guess it's possible. I think we'd see a massive selloff of Canada across all sectors if we see that. And most likely the start of a bear market lasting until Trudeau get his butt booted
I don't think so, Trudeau would get a severe hit to his baby boomer base if he puts that tax in place.
Aphria's ceo is on BNN talking cannabis
I'm too old for this shite, it's probably the time to buy because I feel a fuk you Bedrocan coming on!
I think I heard 3:30.
Selling is relentless today. Are people losing their sh about the capital gains tax that isn't going to happen?
CANADA BUDGET 2017 PREVIEW, 3rd of 5: Liberals Move to Eliminate Harper-Era Boutique Tax Breaks; Cannabis Stocks in Focus
21 Mar 2017 12:04 ET
12:04 PM EDT, 03/21/2017 (MT Newswires) -- The Trudeau government has already started removing a series of relatively minor tax credits introduced by the Harper government, including fitness and arts credits for children. In last year's budget, the Liberals instead introduced an all encompassing Canada Child Benefit plan, applied to all children rather than just those in specific programs.
Other so-called "boutique" tax breaks that could be on the chopping block include the public-transit tax credit, the tradesperson's tool deduction and a tax credit for volunteer firefighters and search and rescue workers.
In next week's budget, the Liberals may also consider broadening access to the RRSP Home Buyer's Plan, expanding the program (which allows you to withdraw up to $25,000 from your RSP with no tax repercussions to buy a home. The funds must be paid back within 15 years) to help Canadians facing a job relocation, the death of a spouse, marital breakdown or who need to accommodate an elderly relative.
The feds may also provide details on its proposal to legalize recreational marijuana use. Any mention of marijuana will likely have a major impact on marijuana stocks, which have been extremely volatile since the government raised the possibility of legalization during the election campaign.
Finally, in a decision that is sure to interest the country's junior mining sector, Ottawa will likely extend the 15% Mineral Exploration Tax Credit, scheduled to expire at the end of March. Last year, Ottawa estimated the credit would cost $20 million over two fiscal years.
MT Newswires will be providing extensive coverage of Budget 2017, with Ottawa correspondent Doug Watt providing stories from the lockup and filing those stories as soon as the budget embargo is lifted at around 4 pm ET on Mar. 22.
If they're the underwriters they've already made their money the instant that starts trading. The initial offering will be higher than they paid unless they're in the business of losing money. They'd ipo a bag of dicks if they thought they could jack the initial offering. I'm not writing anything with you in mind so carry on with you're day trading dream.
Yes,
There get their share. Doesn't make sense that they are just selling off for a profit. If they were they wouldn't have released that article of full valued sell Canopy before they exited. Which makes me think it's a short position.
This is the same type of activities that they got slapped with a fine last year. They initiated a buy rating and had just participated in a bought deal.
Now they have initiated a sell and look to be building a short position. It's good to put it out in the world for all eyes to see.
I noticed Canaccord starting to sell a few days before the news of the pesticides broke.
The days it broke they slammed the stock hard with 50K selloffs. They also released a hit piece on Canopy during that time too. Also they were involved in the Bill Blair article where Blair was miss quoted.
Today I noticed they hit APH, OGI, and Canopy at the exact same time today. Canaccord was involved in a lot of the bought deals lately.
There's a few reasons they might be selling off Bought deal, they believe their analysts
Most likely imo they saw an opportunity for a short and they went for it. This happens a lot here and always ends and usually were back up in a few days.
Here's a few of Canaccords fraud beauties. If they are gone and out of the weed game that's fine with me. I didn't like to see their name bounce around lately.
https://www.google.ca/amp/business.financialpost.com/investing/canaccord-genuity-ordered-to-pay-550000-by-sec-over-underwriting-deal/amp
http://m.obj.ca/Other/Archives/2000-06-29/article-2228206/Canaccord-to-pay-fines-for-fraud/1
When only one person is selling it is minipulation. Canaccord responsible for the last few weeks down trend 100%
001 009
03/20/2017 3:08 PM EDT 10.38 200 -0.28 TSX 001 033
03/20/2017 3:08 PM EDT 10.38 100 -0.28 TSX 003 033
03/20/2017 3:08 PM EDT 10.39 100 -0.27 TSX 079 033
03/20/2017 3:08 PM EDT 10.39 90 -0.27 TSX 039 003
03/20/2017 3:08 PM EDT 10.39 40 -0.27 TSX 007 003
03/20/2017 3:08 PM EDT 10.39 1,100 -0.27 TSX 007 033
03/20/2017 3:08 PM EDT 10.39 500 -0.27 TSX 039 033
03/20/2017 3:08 PM EDT 10.39 700 -0.27 TSX 039 033
03/20/2017 3:08 PM EDT 10.39 100 -0.27 TSX 039 033
03/20/2017 3:08 PM EDT 10.39 200 -0.27 TSX 039 033
03/20/2017 3:08 PM EDT 10.39 100 -0.27 TSX 053 033
03/20/2017 3:08 PM EDT 10.39
Pretty convinced Canaccord is shorting this / selling a large position. They've got a block sell at 10.53 trying to push it lower. Sorry for the conspiracy posts it's interesting to see how the slime balls of the world operate.
Every single sell coming through right now us Canaccord.
3/20/2017 11:45 AM EDT 10.55 100 -0.11 TSX 085 033
03/20/2017 11:45 AM EDT 10.55 500 -0.11 TSX 002 033
03/20/2017 11:45 AM EDT 10.55 1,000 -0.11 TSX 002 033
03/20/2017 11:45 AM EDT 10.55 300 -0.11 TSX 079 033
03/20/2017 11:45 AM EDT 10.55 800 -0.11 TSX 079 033
03/20/2017 11:45 AM EDT 10.55 400 -0.11 TSX 079 033
03/20/2017 11:45 AM EDT 10.55 1,200
Bruce did his interview from Israel, which is interesting. He said he's looking into taking medical applications worldwide then he's Internet connection got cut off.
Mostly Canaccord selling 033 still.
Looks like across the board all cannabis stocks timing exact same.
Bruce us on BNN at 11:30
10.65 200 -0.01 TSX 039 033
03/20/2017 11:01 AM EDT 10.65 400 -0.01 TSX 039 072
03/20/2017 11:01 AM EDT 10.65 1,100 -0.01 TSX 007 033
03/20/2017 11:01 AM EDT 10.65 100 -0.01 TSX 124 033
03/20/2017 11:01 AM EDT 10.65 1,800 -0.01 TSX 007 033
03/20/2017 11:01 AM EDT 10.65 1,800 -0.01 TSX 007 085
03/20/2017 11:01 AM EDT 10.65 100 -0.01 TSX 079 085
03/20/2017 11:01 AM EDT 10.65 100 -0.01 TSX 085 085
03/20/2017 11:01 AM EDT 10.66 100 0.00 TSX 085 001
03/20/2017 11:01 AM EDT 10.65 100 -0.01 TSX 079 053
03/20/2017 11:01 AM EDT 10.65 100 -0.01 TSX 079 009
03/20/2017 11:01 AM EDT 10.65 500 -0.01 TSX 079 009
03/20/2017 11:01 AM EDT 10.65 500 -0.01 TSX 079 009
03/20/2017 11:00 AM EDT 10.67 80 0.01 TSX 007 003
03/20/2017 11:00 AM EDT W 10.67 400 0.01 TSX 007 007
03/20/2017 11:00 AM EDT W 10.67 100 0.01 TSX 007 007
03/20/2017 11:00 AM EDT 10.67 30 0.01 TSX 124 003
03/20/2017 11:00 AM EDT W 10.67 600 0.01 TSX 007 007
03/20/2017 11:00 AM EDT W 10.67 400 0.01 TSX 007 007
03/20/2017 11:00 AM EDT 10.66 200 0.00 TSX 085 033
03/20/2017 11:00 AM EDT 10.66 200 0.00 TSX 014 033
03/20/2017 11:00 AM EDT 10.66 900 0.00 TSX 036 033
03/20/2017 11:00 AM EDT W 10.67 100 0.01 TSX 079 033
03/20/2017 11:00 AM EDT 10.67 100 0.01 TSX 079 033
03/20/2017 10:59 AM EDT 10.67 100 0.01 TSX 085 033
Nice interesting. You know it going to happen with the banks because the morning volume is usually double or triple the average. That wasn't the case with Canopy though. I'm sure someone made out like a bandit Friday. It's to corrupt not to be involved.
On the index? I think they already bought in in Friday. Although I'm definitely not an expert on this. TM might be a better person to ask. I know about once a year my bank investments show 5 million shares being sold before the open and then again millions sold on the close. This happens on these index reshuffling days. I don't understand the machanics of it. I don't expect too much movement but I'd expect a more stable stock price which may help us lose the spikes and the day traders and have a more slow increase over time.
The next financials are going to be a turning point for the company and stock imo.
The Canaccord thing they may just be sending out a report to their clients saying to sell Canopy. It's hard to tell but if they're also shorting Canopy at the same time it's some BS. I don't believe Canopy is overvalued at this point. Their argument is flawed they are taking Canopy's built out capacity and using the average selling price then using that number to compare to the market cap.
The problem with that anaysts perspective is that you'd have to believe that Canopy is completely done expanding and they will never add more production space or any other products that produce a higher value.
So I don't personally think you can value the company this way. I think you need to value it based on the current capacity and also take into account the percentage they are able to expand per year.
Right now Canopy is nearing 300 million annual capacity imo. Right on schedule for me. I've always valued them on 300 million / 90 million net. I think if they hit that year one the analyst community will be valuing them at 25/30 PE we'd probably bounce into the high teens / 20's. Then the growth quarter over quarter will normalize and the pps grows yearly with revenue until we hit a top. Then I sell and don't care anymore I'll just be a customer. Hopefully I'm not 90 years old by then
Our friends at Canaccord 033 slamming us end of day. Retail investors don't trade end of day like that.
The action happened across larger stocks I own like ry bns bce ect so may be related to the index.
Change Exch/Mkt Buyer Seller
03/17/2017 3:40 PM EDT 10.87 300 -0.21 TSX 002 033
03/17/2017 3:40 PM EDT 10.87 500 -0.21 TSX 085 033
03/17/2017 3:40 PM EDT 10.88 900 -0.20 TSX 079
03/17/2017 3:40 PM EDT 10.88 100 -0.20 TSX 079
03/17/2017 3:40 PM EDT 10.88 100 -0.20 TSX 079
03/17/2017 3:40 PM EDT 10.88 1,000 -0.20 TSX 079
03/17/2017 3:40 PM EDT 10.88 100 -0.20 TSX 079
03/17/2017 3:40 PM EDT 10.88 100 -0.20 TSX 079
03/17/2017 3:40 PM EDT 10.88 100 -0.20 TSX 079
03/17/2017 3:40 PM EDT 10.88 200 -0.20 TSX 079
03/17/2017 3:40 PM EDT 10.88 100 -0.20 TSX 033
03/17/2017 3:40 PM EDT 10.88 100 -0.20 TSX 033
03/17/2017 3:40 PM EDT 10.88 100 -0.20 TSX 033
03/17/2017 3:40 PM EDT 10.88 100 -0.20 TSX 033
03/17/2017 3:40 PM EDT 10.87 500 -0.21 TSX 085
03/17/2017 3:40 PM EDT 10.85 400 -0.23 TSX 085 033
03/17/2017 3:40 PM EDT 10.85 200 -0.23 TSX 009 033
03/17/2017 3:40 PM EDT 10.87 500 -0.21 TSX 101
03/17/2017 3:40 PM EDT 10.85 300 -0.23 TSX 009 033
03/17/2017 3:40 PM EDT 10.85 200 -0.23 TSX 002 033
03/17/2017 3:40 PM EDT 10.85 500 -0.23 TSX 002
03/17/2017 3:40 PM EDT 10.85 600 -0.23 TSX 085 001
03/17/2017 3:40 PM EDT 10.85 2,000 -0.23 TSX 085 033
03/17/2017 3:40 PM EDT 10.85 30 -0.23 TSX 003
03/17/2017 3:40 PM EDT 10.85 200 -0.23 TSX 085 033
Ummmm retail investors have millions of shares? Because that's what they dumped on the market days before the lawsuit news. Most likely they still have some of those short hence the bs article contradictory to previous articles valuing canopy higher.
Canaccord the same company that was suppressing the stock price before the lawsuit news then they were buying like crazy on the panic selloff. I'd rather use a piece of dog turd to value this stock then their analysis.
Nice recovery here, should be a good year for this company. Thanks for the information being shared here.
Haha that's cool. They should have an alarm when it lands in your city. Bruce is an IT guy his last company the fastest growing IT company in Canada A few years running growing at 600% I believe it was. I'm sure he knows some killer IT guys.
So it sounds like online sales country wide are coming to me. That is as good as a pot of gold and Bruce is our leprechaun. Sit back and let it unfold, and enjoy the ride.
It's tough to feel sorry for someone whose been posting pictures of themselves on beaches in Jamaica, touring Europe ect all on criminal funds while their employees most young adults with their lives ahead of them were getting locked up making them money. They were arrested at the airport about to leave for Spain for another vacation. Activist my butt they were cashing in huge.
Yoda's conspiracy theory
In the days leading up to the new release of a potential lawsuit. ( just for the record I've read the entire lawsuit and you should too, there's going to be zero effect on the company. Canada is not the US where lawsuits are rediculous, I bet this gets settled for under 100k probably in the tens of thousands and maybe a big zero) Anyway....
In the days leading up to the news release Canaccord sold shares in the millions for three days straight they sold all day in small amounts not to bring the price down too much and the end of day swallowed all the end of day volume. I believe they were building a short position those days and they knew what was coming. They are very close to the company helping with mergers and financing. When panic ensued I noticed them buying up shares on the way down. When I saw this along with reading the fluffy lawsuit I knew the trap was set. They made money on the way down and covered and fleeced everyone's cheap shares. Welcome to the world of investing. I believe they are long again now so that brings some comfort to people holding. They wanted more shares and used this opportunity to get them. They're still active today on the buy side.
In the early days of the MMPR I'm talking 2014. Patient growth was growing at 1500 patients per month. Currently I think we're around 3000 patients per month. Germany should experience 2500-3000 patients per month growth starting from now. A gram a day to 3 grams a day higher price per gram. I estimate there's 900k-2.7 million of new revenue up for grabs per month every month. In Canada currently there 1.5-4.5 million of new money available every month. That's at a gram a day most prescriptions are larger.
Anyway don't worry be happy.
Tweed's new strain is 29% thc they are growing very well.
Well I'm glad that day is over. High emotions brains turned off. Momma told me there'd be days like this.
This lawsuit is bunk, I'm not an expert but I expect this won't even go to court. Or if it does it will be because Canopy believes they would win the case.
I suspect it would be a tough case to prove. They're most likely looking for a one time cash payout.
If anything like that happens it will be short lived. Your life stresses me out, probably a good day to buy, not sell or worry about losses.
Canopy’s not stupid. Their president is a lawyer. If sure they knew the risk and still decided to go ahead with the deal. This is the price they paid to take over Mettrum. It must have been worth it, in their eyes. This will probably end up like the peace naturals lawsuit we'll hear nothing about it for a year or so then it will be nothing.
Long enough time frame is what you need here, people won't even remember this lawsuit a year fron now. It will sit in the courts for years. I'm most likely going to make a buy tomorrow on this headline. OGI will recover, time heals all wounds. I hope Canopy buys them up personally. Good chance to grab them cheap. GL fellow investors
I think you're right John and goodbuddy. In my opinion OGI right now has the greatest potential for the highest rate of return of all the Cannabis stocks in the next few months. Most target prices are $4.5. I think we might double up here, and this is the only stock I see this happening with. OGI is valued less than SL and Supreme doesn't even have a licence yet. Doesn't make sense.
I think we need about 10 more greenhouses.
https://www.thelocal.de/20170303/doctors-rejoice-as-germany-kicks-off-medical-marijuana-prescriptions
This is good news, Health Canada satisfied and no further action needed.
https://news.lift.co/health-canada-satisfied-with-measures-taken-by-organigram-and-mettrum-after-recalls/
Thanks John,
I enjoy your posts as well. I just started to DD on them and I agree they look like a very good value here. Thanks for the DD, I was just reading about the new CEO and it looks promising. He seems to have experience developing product for Tilray. We'll see what the next year brings.
These type of things seem to blow over and are forgotten in my experience.
25% reduction on hydro bills should benefit Canopy up to 53% discount in rural areas.
As for the goldman deal, Bruce said he likes to announce things once they are complete and not before then. Probably to not look like a pumping stock CEO. I'd imagine there's multiple deals going on behind doors.
Another LP has struck a deal with a pharmacy. For educating their pharmacists and also more interestingly a distribution deal across Canada. So I guess Pharmacies are already in the cards. I must have missed that memo. The deal is with a smaller pharmacy let's see who lands shoppers.
Germany opens up this month in March soon LP'S will be supplying all of German and all Canadian pharmacies. Thus makes me think that major expansion is already underway. I'd love to be a fly on the wall of the chocolate factory.
3 years ago we were the only coverage on this stock. More and more coming online and all have similar evaluations. I suspect when we double our revenue from 10 to 20 million in one quarter those price targets will be adjusted in our favor to the upside. We've hit the big times when one of the large banks in Canada puts out some research, It's coming right after laws pass I'd guess.
Yoda's one year price target: Higher than today
They use the word inventory. I'm not 100% sure but from the wording it's sounds like finished product. You'd think they use biological assets instead of revenue.
You'd be able to tell from the sedar financials. I'll dig them out someday soon.
Canopy Growth Corp - inventory at december 31, 2016 valued at $50.6 million
I was just reading the patient growth for the acmpr was 30% last quarter.
I think just as everything stands we will hit 100 million or very close to it.
Canopy's been growing about 1.5-2 million added revenue per quarter.
With added product from the greenhouse they can grow above 2 million a quarter closing in on 3.
Mettrum I don't follow as close but if they can add a million a quarter. Should be realistic to hit 100 mill this year. The quarters would look as follows
18 - 22 - 26 - 30
Giving us 96 million.
It's amazing they can hit those kind of numbers just on Canadian medical sales. Like you said production is key.
Bruce said last week in an interview "we're on the cusp of something big." I tend to agree.
I think we can touch 100 million 2017. That's 100 million to invest in the business plus the 100 million they have in cash. Canopy is pulling away from the competition big time. The other companies have revenue of 20-30 million to invest back into their businesses. Game over
If new products come on board and Germany get rolling. That's another story you're 150-200 million?
Those number we've been projecting are starting to show up.
Looks like we're on pace for that 80 million year in 2017. Very promising. No complaints here. I think we'll have 18-20 million showing up next financials doubling their revenue in one quarter. I can see the headlines now. Should be a good spring/summer.