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Tension has to be high. Down 10% with continued no news in a month we are supposed to break out is frustrating. I still think we break out, but it is tough to see this.
Just looking through the comments: Investing 101- don't try to catch a falling knife. Ill see you all at .75
It looks like the MM's are adamant on holding .50. Very strange price action.
I feel the same way. It is time they start informing their investors on the strategy moving forward.
INO sure knows how to get their share price moving.
I think high level hiring can be a little overstated. Pierce hired his wife to take his job. That is questionable to say the least. The technology seems great, but I would like to see more out of management.
Kind of sounds like grasping at straws. Your argument is once final phase 2 data is released they will start bringing awareness? Behavioral science 101: how people manage past situations is often times how they will manage situations in the future. Oncs has tried to bring awareness to the company through conferences and continues to do so. I have not seen anything from them in the past to indicate they are going to start a marketing blitz. That is nothing more than guess work. I am ready to see more transparency. I am also ready to see in detail how they plan to achieve their objectives. That is pretty standard for a public company to give to its shareholders.
No, we will not double on the small sample sized data that is released on Sunday. I would be ecstatic to see us hit .60. As far as news events go, the only one that would run us to new 52 week highs is a favorable partnership.
I subscribe to the same newsletter. MGNX is the only one that I have put money into at this point. I'm still looking into the others. Increasing survival months is the best measure that we have right now since a cure has not been found. Also most of these samples are small and have only been studied for a short period of time. Only time will tell how far immunotherapy can take us.
And our volume right now implies a complete lack of interest in near term events.
I guess we are all stuck here.
They seem much further along than ONCS.
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/09/22/merck-of-germany-to-acquire-sigma-aldrich-for-17-billion/?_php=true&_type=blogs&partner=yahoofinance&_r=0
I guess this was one of the deals the European Merek was working on.
Everything is getting crushed today, especially small caps. We need something substantial soon.
How so?
Look at MGNX. Diverse pipeline, multiple partnerships on the books, and 600 mil market cap.
There are no comparable companies with this small of a pipeline and that high of a market cap. ONCS is only running trials for one type of cancer, and has not done a large study on it. ONCS is in its infancy. The potential is huge, but pps will reflect current results. A market cap this year of 500 million would be overvalued.
This my have been posted but I'm not sure.
http://www.news-medical.net/news/20140908/New-immuno-oncology-drug-helps-bodys-own-immune-system-to-fend-off-cancer.aspx
http://www.fiercebiotech.com/story/sutro-adds-merck-kgaa-its-roster-marquee-armed-antibody-partners/2014-09-17
This company has a ton of deals in place. I would love to see us grab 300mil in cash.
3 years form the date it was initiated.
Not to mention ESMO should have a lot of European eyes on it, and that is where they decided to release data proving their hypothesis.
Today seems to have low volume to move almost 10%. Usually that indicates that we retrace due to the weak conformation of the move, or someone has tons of shares accumulated and we have a low float.
Would this new device be proprietary, and keep ONCS from having to pay INO royalties? This would create a need for a legal team if they were to get sued.
At this point I would take one on the books.
Very light volume for a 15% move.
Lets blow through .5s
Tremors also mentioned awhile back that he spoke with someone else in IR that had recently come from HC as well.
I thought the same thing this morning when my phone went off. Pretty cool.
There is not enough volume to confirm anything. We are trading sideways with support at .50 until we get enough volume to move.
And we probably won't hit 500k shares. This is so slow.
I've spent a good amount of my day researching immnotherapy companies trying to figure out why our market cap stays under 150 million with the potential we have. I find two things consistently in comparable companies with marketcaps between 300 million - 500 million+ in the same industry and phase of trials that ONCS has not done yet.
The first is pipeline. ONCS is not diversified right now which adds an extra element of risk to the company. They are working on smaller indications, but nothing that could generate substantial shareholder revenue. ONCS is currently a one trick pony. There is potential for others, but nothing tangible, just speculation.
The second is the lack of validation from companies with financial backing, and big pharma approval. Currently, ONCS is mostly reliant on retail shareholders to raise cash to fund trials. Most Phase II trials have a large amount of risk and cost associated, and a boom or bust nature, especially with only one revenue generating product in production. ONCS has fostered the OTC trader and flipper shareholder base. Management hints at things and says news will come in the fall. There are very few true pps drivers ONCS can deliver, and it seems they are being vague and feeding the traders instead of taking care of the investors. ONCS will need share price stability to raise more cash, and that can only come from long term shareholders or institutional holders.
I know there are milestones stacked up for the end of the year, but I only see two ways this plays out successfully for shareholders. We can find a partner that has enough confidence to put skin in the game. Not just a PD-1 for trials. Then begin trials for new indications with the cash on hand. IMO it has to happen in that order. If not it will be perceived as imminent dilution (with the already approved S-3) to fund both trials alone. If that happens the pps will not hold up. Also, if that is the plan I would expect ONCS to pump up the price as much as possible, dilute, than announce the next phase I. The second option is a buy out. We all know how that works out, and I'm confident we would receive a nice premium if that were the case. Any other news event such as mouse trial, final phase II/A data, etc.... will be sell the news opportunities for traders.
All IMO and feel free to disagree. Currently long and strong.
Great post, and great mentality to have as an investor. I'm sure being open minded will make you money.
On a different note than Punit. On the low volume today do you think we break .50 in any meaningful way, or do you see solid support there?
With the price dropping as fast as it came up its hard to call this a bear raid. Looks more like traders bidding this up hoping for news then letting it back down. I bet we see the same thing before data is presented later this month.
Partners will be the way to go and add the most value to shareholders. However, it is time to get one under our belt. It will go along way in validating our tech to big pharma and institutions.
I agree, I do not think we move low enough to make flipping this a good risk/reward.
Eventually yes. I just hate the timing of this. I hope this isn't a sell the news this early in our news cycle. Hopefully just a bear raid before the conference starts.