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I agree with you that after all these months seeing 4 execs get removed from the website at the same time...which appears to be intentional and suggests they have left or are leaving ADXS...is extremely odd / interesting.
I am more familiar with how big companies work and usually this kind of movement happens only after a deal is announced, but before the deal has closed. Basically senior management finds out who is getting what positions in the new organization, and the losers typically leave, again this happens even before the deal formally closes (but after it's announced).
Sometimes you may see some senior leaders move to a new job before any formal M&A announcement, but usually because they know a deal is coming and there will be no place for them in the new org.
ADXS has been such a dumpster fire for so long now, it's really hard to know for sure what this might mean or portend.
I guess it could also be Lombardo finally getting serious about cost cutting so he can survive as long as possible on current funds?
Again, it's hard to know for sure what this means, if anything.
Yep, can't sum it up much better than that. I think the current management bodies are out of ideas and just hoping that buying time helps them.
I just wish they would sell the company and disappear back into the bowels of middle management somewhere while the science gets into the hands of a company that can advance it on all fronts simultaneously.
Maybe. But his dismissal happened fast, with no real contingency plan in place for his replacement. And an "interim" CEO for 9 months and counting, and still no CMO after they stated in September they were going to hire one.
DOC has been gone long enough now that he can no longer be blamed for the continuing confusion and complete lack of transparency here.
No, I understand what you meant. But my point is that this would be a virtual impossibility, even if some activist investor out there had interest.
Adage's position as the primary pit boss is almost unassailable here. I believe they have the ability to increase their holdings to 20% whenever they want.
I think the only question I have left about the BOD kicking DOC out the door is...
Was DOC fired because we wanted to do an offering at $5 or less? Or because he didn't want to do that?
The last 9 months make me strongly suspect that was the crux of the issue.
Iggy, for better or worse I suspect we already have our "activist" investor, and they have had significant influence in the moves this company has made since late 2014.
In a very perverse twist, I guess I can now only hope it was that "activist" investor that was the architect of the 2 1/2 year takedown, and they now have a plan to run the company in the other direction with the clock ticking on the EMA decision and some key trial results coming due over the next 3-15 months. We'll see on that.
Amgen also owns 7% of the company, but I don't know enough about how activist they are or aren't.
I do think there is a middle ground here.
I happen to agree with almost every single word written on ADXS by GBROWN6332. I am still voting YES on the share authorization, but I suspect the BOD, Lombardo, and ADXS leadership in general are seriously underqualified.
While I believe in LM science and think the value proposition is tremendous...I am becoming more firm in my conviction that the current gang running the show at ADXS does not have the competence nor the resources to ever realize it.
Some company is going to eventually buy ADXS IP portfolio, but probably for a song, and then turn around and monetize it for Billions eventually.
Yep. It doesn't happen often like that. At least for ADXS.
Some real buying volume incoming.
Staying power and longer term meaning unknown
Interesting. It appears almost 170K in volume just in last few minutes, mostly buying.
Just an observation, not suggesting it's positive or negative
I am beginning to think ADRO's management team must come from PT Barnum's family tree. They seem like an extremely talented bunch who are able to sell confidence in science that doesn't appear to be nearly as good as ADXS has, and it seems like they sell every share they can as soon as it comes off lockup.
I would almost bet that if Isaacs was running ADXS it would be over $1B MC right now.
Possibly. Or it might only take 6 1/2hrs to 13hrs (1 or 2 trading days).
It all depends if Tutes and big volume traders see this as a buying opportunity.
I am assuming that beyond the reported 5.2M short number, that maybe another 1M or so shorts were closed last week? Regardless I am guessing the current short position is below 5.2M.
So I am hoping that tutes are pivoting from short to long here...and that they will see this hold as just caution and nothing ADXS specific.
I think the real key here...going back to our discussions from last summer...is now that the tutes (possibly including Adage) have begun cashing in bigtime on their short profits, do they believe in the company and science enough to think they can run this back to $10ish or even higher?
If that answer is Yes, then I think we will see them buy this dip on the Hold. Maybe not right away, but they would strike when they think they see a bottom, today or tomorrow.
I guess we'll find out soon enough.
By the way, kudos to you for your theory last summer that the tutes would eventually force an offering at $5 so they could get enough shares to cover. You were right about the strategy, only I sure wish it was $5 instead of $2. :0(
I certainly hope Lombardo does a deal that provides rights beyond EU.
It never made good business sense to me to chop up the franchises and selling rights just for (relative) chump change now. I always saw this as reducing the value of the overall company in any potential future sale.
Quite frankly, Petit is the only guy that impresses me and that I have any real trust in on the management team. I have no idea if I am right about that or not.
On the surface this hold appears to have nothing to do with AXAL, but what horrible timing. Just when it appeared the PPS was healing itself and building a good base for a move higher. We just never seem to catch a break.
The only possible good news here is that maybe the remaining shorts view this as the gift it is and cover here. But then again that is really just more good news for them.
It will be interesting to see if there is buying in volume today that will overcome the selling, or not.
The new Cantor price target is $5
No disagreement here. Sounds reasonable.
I am no fan of this BOD nor a strong proponent of management (outside of Petit)
However if the theory of a handful of us is correct, there needs to be a catalyst event to launch any planned run. This event doesn't even need to be as significant as the Amgen deal. It just needs to significant enough to use as a pretext for launch and flipping the HFT algos setting to inflate.
This has been pushed down so far that right now the value of the science is basically at $0. I think now that they are covered, if we follow the money the path of least resistance seems to now be up. What I am not sure of is what level they will target or what level they may consider re-shorting. Obviously there is a huge difference between $6 vs $16 vs $26. Then again the next early 2015 style pump they orchestrate (if that were to happen) might be the one leading to an eventual sale.
I don't have any answers, only unprovable suspicions after watching the trading here closely since 2015, and especially the last 9 months.
I would agree it's clearly too early to declare this is over and suggest or believe it's clear sailing from here. But the volume today is still high and they basically took the PPS back down to the $2.06ish level it was trading at last week before the huge 1+M purchase / cover before Friday's close.
We should know within a couple weeks what direction this wants to go in...or in my view what direction this will be steered in.
Agreed. I have mentioned this previously but in these markets controlled by HFT machines a "short squeeze" rarely ever happens anymore. The new short squeeze is probably when a company is sold and the shorts are trapped in their positions.
Think about ADXS. Since June the PPS has been driven from $8 to $2 and at least over 50% of the short position has been covered. I am guessing even more than that because I suspect there may be another 1+M covered this past week.
The give away on the manipulation here was how controlled and programmed the walk down was. Somebody had the HFT dialed in almost too perfectly. The movements were so precise it was clearly machine driven.
I am still a little too wary to declare victory yet.
(1) We need to see them finally allow the chart to begin repairing itself, which will bring in millions of shares in volume from the technical momentum traders. They were relentless and brutally effective breaking the chart and keeping it broken for over 2 1/2 years.
(2) We need to see the short numbers shrink even farther.
(3) We need to see how far they allow this to run up before they try shorting again. Assuming they are now preparing to run it, just how far will they allow this to run? $8? $12? $18? $20's again?
Well stated and eloquent as always. And true. It has been morbidly fascinating to be a shareholder in ADXS these last 5 years, especially the last 3.
Personally I think it is a mistake to focus on the PPS. I mean $2.20 was a nice close but sort of meaningless.
I think the key is to watch the short interest at the next report. Today was 5.2M, so does the short interest go back up 1+M or down that much or more?
Follow the money. If the short interest goes way down again at the next report the hedge funds that absolutely own the PPS and use ADXS as their personal play toy will only have one direction left to take the PPS in order to make money.
Quite frankly they are the battleship and we are barnacles attached to their hull. If they decide to run ADXS back up the flagpole we can have some hope to go along for the ride.
Getting under 5M was always the magic number to know that shorts were finally cashing in on their huge profits. I have no doubts that most of the shorts that just covered were hedge funds who have been short since the mid-$20's in June 2015.
If we get under 4M or even 3M then prepare for the possibility those same hedge funds plan on launching this for a repeat of the first 6 months of 2015.
Still too early to say for sure yet.
Yep. It's still to early to call it conclusively, but this seems to be the beginning of the first real evidence backing up the theory of ADXS being extremely manipulated and controlled by shorts since the summer of 2015 with the intention of driving the PPS into the ground so they could cover en masse.
This appears to have always been the end game.
Just out of curiosity, going along with that theory for arguments sake, can you define what "peanuts" means to you?
This might be the most "managed" stock I have ever owned. It is both frustrating and oddly encouraging at the same time.
The next 6 months should prove the general veracity of some of the speculative theories about the short strategy in play here (or not).
Yep. No predictions from me if up or down from here forward, but the best I can tell it appears that at least 2 or more entities have been shuffling huge blocks of shares back and forth between accounts for months now. It is just more openly exposed and obvious during periods like the last 3 hours of trading from 3pm yesterday till now.
When they attacked the PPS in September before Lombardo even said a word, they took the PPS down almost $2 in 2-3 days with about 700K of strategically timed shorting at the opens and then turned HFT on full blast to create the appearance of greater volume and amplify the real selling after they started the stampede.
Whoever has been running the show here has extremely deep pockets.
Somewhere between 600k to 700k shares of mostly buying just passed. Whether new buying or buying to cover I don't know.
The fact that kind of buying volume only moved the PPS .08 cents tells you everything you need to know about how things work here.
Gbrown,
Exactly. And your general summary of the combined / collective theory was excellent.
But it should be noted, that while we may not ever know all the details, or that our collective theory may not be 100% correct in all respects...the overall premise is common practice.
The idea that hedge funds (who are judged on annual returns) take early stakes in Biotech's and profit from trading it both ways while they sometimes wait years for the ultimate payoff has been documented and discussed for years. It's not that big of an industry secret.
These funds aren't just going to park Millions or even Tens of Millions of dollars in a biotech and then wait years before they see even $1 in return profit (a profit that may never come if the company or drug ultimately fails). They could invest in Treasuries instead. No, instead they invest early, gain some influence on or even control of the BOD, and then actively work the PPS in both directions. This ensures their profits from trading ends up more than paying for their initial investment plus some profit on top of that. Then they get to play with house money from that point forward.
Whatever one's opinion might be of whether this is ethical or unethical, from their vantage point they probably feel that taking advantage of the loopholes that exist in the system that allow them to do this is just smart money management. In fact they might even argue it is part of their fiduciary responsibility to their clients to maximize annual returns. Much the way highly paid accountants are compensated to squeeze out every last dollar of tax savings available based on the tax code and any loopholes that exist that can be exploited.
Maybe. But Denner strikes as the kind of guy who will only ride along if he can drive the car and enjoy the Lion's share of the profits. I don't see him as the kind of guy interested in a power or profit sharing venture?
Maybe he decided he had no interest in being part of a three some with Adage?
I would include Tin in that group as well. None of us may completely agree with each other on every hypothetical detail, but we all know we have seen enough weirdness here to suggest somebody has their boot on the PPS and has acted with virtual impunity for almost 3 years.
Manipulation works both ways. As stated previously I now strongly suspect the run to $30 was just as manipulated as the drop to $2. Some consortium has probably made at least $100M minimum in controlling this stock. ADXS is a play toy for them, their own veritable ATM machine.
Unless and until they decide they want ADXS to move up it won't go anywhere. I find it hard to believe Adage would remain locked in the way they have with close to 4M shares all the way down to approaching $1 unless they saw some financial benefit from it.
Jck / Iggy,
The relentless downward pressure on the PPS...that was designed to greatly amplify real selling...and ironically was clearly intended to actually CREATE selling and keep the chart broken to prevent technical buying started by August / September of 2015. From that point forward it has made almost no difference how much cash ADXS has had at any given time or what partnerships or progress they announced.
JMO
Agreed, you've stated it well. I don't have much respect left for this BOD or senior management, but voting YES for authorizing new shares is an easy vote for me.
The Bone In Ribeye medium chased down with an Old Fashioned or Moscow Mule is quite nice
I think my biggest fear with the current BOD and Management at ADXS is that I wonder if they believe they are capable of achieving more than I do? Or more than they have ever demonstrated?
In other words, while I firmly believe in someone like MPREORDER's valuation estimates for ADXS and the science, I don't believe this BOD or any of the senior management they have brought in have ever shown the discipline, experience, or gravitas to achieve that.
So while ADXS might someday be worth $6+B if it was being run by a guy like Alex Denner, I think the current gang would be lucky to someday get $1B for everything. In fact I think their moves over the last 12 months has even put a $1B valuation into serious jeopardy.
They have just made so many critical mistakes and they have shot themselves in the foot so many times, I feel like they keep stringing this out because they can't accept the fact they just aren't good enough to ever get this across the goal line.
I think they need to accept the impact that 10 years of mediocre to poor management has had on their future ability to cash out. They can all still be multi-millionaires selling the company (if they don't completely blow it over the next 12 months), but I suspect they have ruined any chances they have ever had of seeing and realizing the generational lottery ticket they may have hoped for.
I think it's well past time they turn this company over to a bigger pharma that has the human and financial resources to run full speed with it. I feel like they just keep prolonging the inevitable hoping that somehow it's all going to turn out okay for them in the end.
Agreed. The current presentation is the best one I have seen yet.
Hornet, I am in agreement with your arguments about the importance of cost controls. In fairness I think it does seem Lombardo has started to make changes to better control costs, but so much damage has already been done. Is he doing enough?
The recent news that ADXS hired a company whose findings suggested they were under compensated still makes me wonder if they get it. In the real pharma world wage increases are frozen and bonuses are impacted when milestones and targets are not hit. Even beyond that there is no way in the real pharma world that this BOD would remain unchallenged and unchanged after what they have allowed on their watch.
And while I am happy that Lombardo has started to try and control costs somewhat, they appear to be doing it largely by shutting down research and development in areas farthest from commercialization.
While that makes practical sense, it isn't ideal for a Biotech built on R&D to have to stop or slow down R&D in order to cut costs. I get the pragmatism based on the current circumstances, but in my opinion this is another reason why ADXS needs to sell itself so it can get the science in the hands of a better funded Big Pharma who can finance the required R&D needed to get multiple indications to market in parallel.
I agree with this. In my view a NO vote on the share authorization means you might as well sell your shares now, because you are seriously hamstringing the company going forward, whether it's Lombardo or a new CEO.
Yeah, I get the anger and frustration.
I think this BOD has a track record of 10 years of failure. There is no way they should not be forced to resign (most of them) based on the mistakes they have made or allowed to happen. I think senior management is bloated...but still overmatched by the circumstances they face.
I think this company has failed to provide strong fiduciary oversight of the funds they have had available to them over the last 3 years. At the same time they now claim they are worried about being labeled a "going concern" they don't seem to be so worried that they can't find time to justify more raises for themselves. I know $150 Billon dollar Pharma companies that have cut free break room coffee services to save $50K-$100K during difficult times.
But at this point trying to starve the company of authorized shares is like a miner trying to dig himself out of a collapsed mine and then us telling him to tie one arm behind his back while doing so.
At this point, even though I don't like it, I am in for a penny, in for a pound. As disgusted as I am by these guys, voting YES on the share authorization isn't even a difficult decision. Sure they might screw it up, buy every public company needs authorized shares to operate.
JMO.