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"God Bless America....and No Place Else". LOL!
LOL, do you promise? What is the unforeseen catalyst, for such a higher mark?
Been awhile since I read a Schiff article, but he has some interesting view points, to say the least. Harvard alum Harry Dent and Johns Hopkins/Penn alum Jim Rickards are a couple of other Economists that have unique insights to the subjective realm of our currency and stock/bond markets.
The bad thing about these truthful conspiracies is that they could take a decade to eventually develop. In the movie, based off of real life events, that Scion fund manager who originally bought and created inverse swaps about lost everything waiting for two years for Mortgage Backed Securities Market to fall apart, eventually, he walked away with Billions. In the game of cause and effect, the one who is going to lose will do all he can to prevent the loss; e.g. it can take many years to bring a issue to light.
True, this lose credit is allowing companies to borrow cheaply to buyback shares, thereby, mitigating the drawback from reduced earnings; however, this can't last forever, this borrowing will be a drain on the balance sheet because interest costs and debt overhang. Maybe, if they know rates will rise, then that could eventually pacify the debt further.....but still it is a drain on future earnings.
Don't lose sight of the reality that the world sees The Dollar and our Market as stable means to gain returns and interest.....this is what The Street is attempting to entice.
All that European money needs to go somewhere.....the Dollar, US stock and bond markets.
Personally think, that this little melt down in Europe and GB will aid in protecting our financial sector; i.e., it stunts the exodus of the flow of energy from TheStreet that has evolved from the strength of the Asian realm. So this money/energy coming in is certainly a blessing for many. It certainly will be interesting to see how this all pans out and develops....this current rally could be the biggest bait and hook in history. Therefore, I think what is in the best interests of our financial community will determine what path we take, thereby, protecting the best interests of all.....a form of utilitarianism that serves the better good.
The break in oil's effect on the SnP and Dow tells me there is much strength; however, think oil will drop another 15% and those effects cannot be hidden with such a strong dollar. Our only enemy is time.
One minute my gut is telling me that this is one of the greatest opportunities of a lifetime and another minute it is telling me to just walk away. Any rate, it is healthy from a egoic self supporting standpoint to seek/see opportunity, as well as, the dangers at hand. Moreover, gaining knowledge and creativity are another benefit of this seeking......which is the creators will.
Could you still short stocks after closing the buying power?
Thanks for the tidbit on buy/sell labeling for the closing a short positions.
I don't have a margin account so I can't short, e.g., my knowledge of short positions is somewhat limited. Closed it several years ago because it made me feel like I was gambling with money that I didn't have.
Wow, just read a article on the complete misrepresentation of Microsoft's earnings. They have basically lost/wrote off, like 11 billion over the last two years and they are sugar coating GAAP to hide it. The website was called Wolfstreet.com and the article is called "Here is what is so crazy about this stock market". Every aspect of their business is down huge and we got the world printing rosy pictures of better times. First time I ever heard of this website, but it looks pretty imformative.
Sad thing (for vix hedgers/longs)is they could pump this thing for years.
Nasdaq website....pull up after hours TVIX. It gives the trade amounts, times, highs and lows, etc.
Check out that Barrons and Forbes articles on the VIX....big money has been rolling in the last month.
This is dangerous stuff and be very careful, i.e., don't lose sight of the reality that all that money on the sidelines could push the SnP to the moon......so fundamentals/logic are/is thrown out the window. You are wise and knowledgeable enough to be here, however, tread lightly......we could be six months to a year early. The shorts who rode this down from highs are going to ride this up to the sky.
Most definitely it was a short covering, thus, taking advantage of the weakness; however, that could be tell of direction of TVIX/VVIX/VIX. Meaning, a short with a huge position is under the impression that this is a bottom in the VIX and TVIX will hold and not R/S.
Nasdaq website has the total at almost two million.
2 million shares bought in after hours. Somebody bought 1.4 million in one shot.
I'm scared of losing capital! Which, I think is quite logical.
It was positive only for the sheer fact that most earnings projections have been lowered over the past few quarters.
If this pops through and holds till close.....from a chart perspective the VIX is toast.
Holding tight a couple of more sessions, but this thing puts me on edge.......keeps me in my ego too much. No such thing as bad news now, for the powers that be are keeping her up. Some are predicting that FB will miss big. It is just insane that what all has transpired recently and the amount of trouble we stand to face and their is no volatility.
Schlumberger says worst is over for oil and then proceeds to post huge losses and mass layoffs.
US base bombed by Russians. Surprised we didn't hear more about this. I guess to teach us a lesson.
Hopefully, we see a little pullback at the end of the day. I think they are just going to keep throwing money at this thing. Heck, oil is headed lower again and still were green.
It is getting stronger.
Personally think that those in the know are positioning themselves for a major spike down; however, all that sideline cash will be used after the drop to rally it back. Big money is rolling into Short positions and Vix long products......it is going down, it is a question of how quickly. Then again, I could be completely wrong and the SnP rockets to the moon. Ah, the tangled web we weave. I love having the opportunity to analyze and contemplate our current affairs, regardless of its effects......for, "it is better love and failed, then to never have loved at all".
Starbucks earnings might just be sign of what is to come, i.e., everyone has went out and bought the new cars and homes, e.g., leaving most cash strapped and frivolous purchases such as a over priced cup of joe, muffins, and doughnuts at the counter, so to speak.
Banks have been printing credit cards at numbers that haven't been seen in 8 years, thus, straddling the economy with more debt, thereby, putting pressure on future sales.
Since most working Americans have taken it on the chin for the last 25 years on pay and bennies.......don't see the loosening of lending practices rescuing future sales. Additionally, the baby boomers in retirement with diminished buying habits....stashing for the unexpected health concern or whatever, will eventually reflect in future projections. This cycle, in my honest opinion, is toast.
A little back fill and then TVIX should be green again. I figure day traders will gobble up shares in the morning and push it up five cents.
Thanks for that article. I have heard several others say the end of Aug is the date. Hopefully, TVIX will build to the 3 range for these dates. Good Luck
Interesting action at the end of the day. Wonder, whatz up? Short term pop maybe on a sale or two of European ALF?
Byron Wien says.......prepare for pullback of up to 6%.
Forbes did a recent article titled "Are VIX ETF's A Powder Keg Waiting to Explode" Interesting read showing the inflow of money into VIX long products and the outflow of VIX short products. Barron's has one out too "The VIX is Crazy Low". Check them out. Made me feel a little more comfortable with my decisions.
We didn't get the anticipated negative reality that is at hand today from the ECB; however, I think the VIX is moving to the 19 range and with contracts so far out.....TVIX will rise with it. One positive from the ECU, correlative to a Long ViX position is they didn't lower rates (and that probably was do to the fact that they cant push rates any further into the negative). So, I bet we see Yellen grab the microphone and release a few hawkish cries. The farther they push reality out of the way......the bigger the problem grows, Europe's problems that is, but figure 20% of Europe's woes are our woes.
Who knows for sure, they could push the market exponentially higher or the undertow of Europe's banking crisis could drag the SnP to the abyss. I know this much.....it is dangerous times.
That wasn't my source, but it will do. It was from a highly degreed economist that happens to be a best selling author of a couple of books. He just said that it looks like things are starting to fall apart; e.g., if your a long here and on the fence about selling.....might want to wait a day or two.
European Central Bank to release some information in the morning and it ain't good. This is coming from a guy who said Brexit was going to pass while most where convinced otherwise.
LOL, the first stock I ever bought I doubled my money, but it doesn't take long for one to realize that one mistake can wipe out many winners. Buying and holding while dumpster diving has cost me in some aspects; however, it elevated me in my work life and attitude that eventually gained me many times more....so my mistakes turned out to be a gift. When one has some success it tends to blind awareness to the dangers that are at hand. I just had a few winners and I'm sticking my head out a touch.....will sell today or tomorrow if I feel that a sell off in not on the horizon. I have learned to be cautious/prudent with my capital and I always use contrary opinions to effectively reduce a situation.
VVIX has gained some strength the last few days......this could be close to the bottom, albeit, a bottom on this slide down only.
Think the SnP will be in the red here soon. WOW, oil and commodities in general are taking it on the chin, and this should help put some pressure on the market.
Words of wisdom FatStrat. Thanks for you insights and concerns; whereby, "opposition is true friendship".
I agree that rate hikes would cut this rally and I thought for sure that we would start hearing talk of rates this week, but, the condition/situation that DB is in, has me thinking that they will continue to hold off another three months or so.
Oil is dropping big.
Last week a great number of bets on home builder short positions and put options was placed. I think I might have mentioned it already, however, sadly didn't post a link.
VVIX up 2%!
Global US indexes are down a touch (all three)!
Wow, it is funny how sentiment can change so quickly. I wouldn't be surprised to see a small spike up in the morning.
I don't think it could be the end of civilization either......just a transfer of monetized energy. We could go through a deflationary period where the dollar gets smashed or we could experience hyper inflation with the dollar going to the moon;and who knows how precious metals will act, correlative to these potentialities. Heck, we could witness the doubling of the SnP.
Nice article.....thanks.
It could have been a different agency. SnP lowered it to negative.....it could start to get interesting. Oil is tanking again too.....at support, and I think it will continue below 40 in a few weeks.
I think that topic is irrelevant to those who make the market, at least at this juncture.
It sounds crazy, but the market could rise much higher just because it is the only place you can put your money and get a decent return. Like the Clinton Era Dot Com craze when a 100 dollar tech outfit would IPO for Billions. Greenspan speaking "irrational exuberance" to watch the market rise for two more years.
But, what is waiting around the corner is 700 trillion of swaps which equates to 10 years of the entire globes GDP. DB has 75 trillion and was their debt was just downgraded. I think this will have a ripple effect on financials the next few days. This could put the breaks on a rate hike.
The Tractor Depression was a common name for the Great Depression during the 30's. Meaning, the fed created easy credit/easing (like now) to help speed the develop of the Midwest and promote a commerce that was well balanced. However, the lose lending policies allowed for every-one-and-their-brother to buy a small farm with barns and tractors.....this led to the exponential rise in goods and services, as well as, manufacturing and implements so that earnings driven environment was creating results that led to that famous bubble that so many got suckered into and eventually decimating the entire world until WW2. I think the Dust Bowl helped start the ball rolling with lower yields, which led to further erosion of top soil and savings that started the collapse of the banking system and the rush to pull out savings because the farmers couldn't pay for their debt, e.g., the banks couldn't pay their customers. Analogous, to the MBS derivatives fallout, too.
And, where I'm going with this is.....were kind of doing the same thing now but in different realms to cuddle our economy back to health. Will it ever fall apart? Will there be a price to pay? Who knows for sure. I do think rates are coming and I think we should hear something within the week. Moreover, think that the fed was testing the stock/bond markets ability to to carry the burdens of rate hikes. Tax receipts tell me that rates are coming soon.
This was not a cut on the farming industry or farmers in general. It was merely a metaphor to our current environment and what could happen to us all.