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I agree, I'm just hoping we won't finish too low today. The downward trend is quite ugly right now.
Guess they are waiting for next week to release the debt restructuring news. Not sure how I feel about that with this sinking as fast as it has the past couple of days.
If we can manage to hold 4$ today we should be fine. Though it seems unlikely.
As per your #1 we will be receiving positive PR about the senior debt restructuring on Friday. I'm remaining hopeful that that will push this back up in the short term.
A quick thought about the price.
There are close to a million warrants for 6.00$ expiring at the end of the month. If we pushed and held 6.00+, I'm sure management could persuade the holders to exercise their warrants granting another 5m in working capital that could last them quite some time. I'm rather curious if this is a possibility.
3 Day extension from the SEC this morning.
there's your 4.60 bud
and it's gone lol
debt renegotiation PR tomorrow or possibly wednesday. Will that shoot this thing to 10$? lol
This is getting kind of crazy lol
Thanks for this board, very useful!
840K(post r/s) of that offering expire at the end of this month too.
I'd imagine there would be some pressure from the buyers of the original offering to get this thing back up to that point for them to sell. If I had just invested 5M$, and then a short time later have it be worth less than 2M$ I would be pretty pissed off.
I hope that's the case.
Just wanted to give my take for the longs. I don't expect this to "run big" without a miracle. If I wasn't so far down in this stock I would not touch it, but I feel there is definite opportunity for those looking to get in at this point for the pops that are sure to happen over the next month. Just trying to give a timeline for those potential swings.
good luck to all
Them meeting the milestones should given reason enough for Karlsson to renegotiate the loan terms with them. (The 1.2m tax gross-up due next week) Better terms should pop this up in the 3-4$ range. A week after that and we should receive news that they have satisfied the nasdaq listing requirements. That should keep it up there around that mark. At this point(or close) they will announce that they have satisfied the 8-well milestone for November 1st(likely sometime in October will be the announcement).
If they cannot find outside financing by this point, they will likely have another offering. Hopefully after this series of positive news, this will be trading closer to the 4-5$ mark rather than the 2-3$. I feel if they play their cards right(which frankly is unlikely with this set of management, but I'd like to remain hopeful) that we won't see a huge tank following the offering and there will be some interest from new faces.
How likely is that? Given the history of events from this company, not very likely. But maybe they now realize that they are at a point where they need to change their ways if they hope to accomplish anything else successfully. I hope that is the case.
I guess the next best time to sell should be in a week when they will have renegotiated their terms with Karlsson again. Sigh.
The fact of the matter is, none of us know what is being said behind closed doors. We've had an extended period of time without any PR. This often attracts ominous rumors/speculations.
Historically, positive PR comes 08:30 on a Tuesday. This is the last Tuesday before the vote. We will see if they have anything to say tomorrow morning.
Realistically, I don't see them filing for BK. At least not at this point in time. I think the earliest that would happen would be midway through 2014 after they have exhausted all possible routes.
Regardless, September is looking to be a big month one way or the other for Prospect because of several factors including the possible delisting from NASDAQ(likely that they will file for a 6 month extension) as well as 42M warrants expiring at roughly the same time. They also will have to continue drilling if they are to meet the 8-well requirement by the 1st of November as per the Karlsson restructure. Lastly they have a 1.2M tax gross-up due to Karlsson on the 10th. They do not have the funds to pay that at this time. It is possible that more warrants were exercised since the 10-Q was posted, or the more likely scenario is that they will renegotiate the terms again.
I'm still holding and potentially averaging down again post-vote depending on how things look to be heading.
Good luck to all.
Some thoughts from the 10-Q
They have 0.6M$ unrestricted funds as of today.
2.4M in escrow to be used towards funding the continued DFS.
They estimate the 0.6M is enough to cover them through mid-late September. This combined with the escrow funds will allow them to meet the required development milestone by November 1st.
They owe a 1.2M tax gross-up payment to Karlsson by September 10th.
Now, they won't default them over this, surely. So what we will probably be seeing is another debt restructuring.
My thoughts are this:
August 30th is the next known big date. The shareholders vote. At this point, it is almost certain that they will vote-through the R/S. The question at this point is: will that be a good thing?
The stock seems to be slowing down in terms of volume, even watching the boards you can see that people are just getting impatient, and tired of the current state of the company. The overall trend is a downward one. Now, could an r/s help revitalize the public interest in this company, thus potentially generating newcomers and overall a trend-reversal? I think it's possible, but I am no expert.
Something to also take into consideration is the current state of the potash industry. We're still in a wait-and-see phase as to how it will actually play out in the coming months. I feel investors, such as BHP & Sichuan are waiting for this as well. Once they see something a little more stable in terms of a pricing scheme, they may feel more comfortable to come aboard as a financier.
My personal take is this: The next 2 weeks to a month are going to be the best buying opportunities for not only this stock, but also passport as well. A buyout of the entire region wouldn't be out of the picture when the industry starts to settle down. The low price structures of these companies is something that is becoming more and more important with each development of the industry. At 115$/tn cost, it will always produce a profit.
This is, of course considering people have the patience, and guts to put money into a company, and industry that is at its' peak of uncertainty. The risk is definitely here, as is the potential reward.
That is absolutely nothing new, it's exactly what was posted a week ago. We've already determined that it is essentially meaningless as that company files a ton of those "investigations" weekly.
Wondering when we are going to get some PR. This thing will continue to drop without it.
Hanna, if they wanted them to default on the loan they would have done it before now. There's obviously a reason why they keep renegotiating with the company instead of defaulting on them.
Also the money that you are referring to that goes to Karlsson(50% of the first 24M$) is going into escrow which can be used to fund the development milestones.
Here's the deal, Sichuan was at the investors meeting. They are up to speed with everything, they already KNOW that the mine will not be completed by that date, and have known for quite some time now. Yet they are still working with the company and publicly endorsing the PFS. Not to mention they are "actively trying to find ways to make their relationship more comprehensive" Does that tell you something?
Everything that was in that prospectus is nothing new.
Do you plan on holding till the mine is operational?
We know your love for passport hanna. But personally, I'll still be giving till the end of the year to see if they begin to make a turnaround.
Prospect is further ahead, and would seem to have more contacts in the industry that could actually make this thing happen.
I still think the best possibility would be a JV with Sichuan.
Good to see new folks on this stock that aren't in it for the half penny flip.
What are your thoughts on the coming weeks till the vote?
I got my proxy vote done this morning.
All that means is that (in the event of a 50-1 r/s) the 0.12 warrants would then become 6.00$ warrants and instead of being 41.7M shares, they would be ~ 830k. This logic would apply to all outstanding warrants.
Personally, I don't really know how much of an impact staying listed would actually have. I mean, what has it done so far? All of the funding has come from dilution through existing shareholders. Also, most likely it seems that future funding would come through Sichuan, also already a contact of the company.
Personally I'd much rather them stay in the pinks unless they can actually quantify the advantage to staying listed.
Also, again, it's not just the bid price that is needed to stay listed, they also need to maintain a market cap of 35M$ which we are far from right now. Regardless, they need to make this thing move north, to what degree is dependent upon the R/S terms.
Hopefully shareholders realize nothing will come of this and don't react.
It will probably affect the share price negatively. But the issue itself will probably be resolved before weeks end. I suppose we can only hope that the share price will recover too.
Also, this very much looks like a disgruntled shareholder issue.
PR regarding the drilling as expected.
http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20130807005430/en
Probably won't affect much pps wise judging from the past.
They really need to figure out something financing wise.
Doesn't look like any news today. Those are the same pre values and sizes as yesterday. I'd expect another dull day at this point. They need to release something soon though.
Fully expecting news tomorrow morning at 7:30. That's their time/day.
Without all that manipulation, this thing can gap up pretty quick if it trades like today, but with good investor news.
Let us commence the make it rain dance in hopes of this sign being something of an indicator.
I'm taking a loss regardless probably. 300k @ .265 But I'm thinking the 0.15-0.18 mark I may exit and re-enter later when things start to come together. If it doesn't hit anywhere near that, I may just hold.
It could definitely happen here if they announced a JV between themselves and Sichuan. There is still that subtle hint in the press release about expanding the relationship between the two.
Some things to take into consideration on the short term:
Inflow drilling this month. I'm fairly sure they have the capital to begin this stage of it.
August 31 vote.
September we have the end of the 180 day grace period for nasdaq continued listing. It is very likely that they will either do one of two things:
1) R/S with secured dilutive funding from a 3rd party investor to meet both the market cap & bid price requirement before the time is up. This is less likely in my opinion because of the short amount of time they would have to do this in.
2) File for extension to regain compliance. They can receive up to 180 extra days. This would buy them until the end of the year when the allowance of the R/S being voted on would expire.
Also in September we have 41.7M 0.12 warrants expiring if they have not been exercised.
At current dilution of 115M shares, we would need a price of roughly 0.31 prior to the R/S to regain compliance of the 35M market cap requirement. It is obviously more likely that most of the remaining warrants will be executed prior to it reaching this price which would lower the target price to a minimum level of 0.15-0.16
What happens next is speculation. I am hoping for the best.
Could it play out as such?...
Raise price past the 0.12 warrant mark to get 84M warrants exercised bringing the cap close to 25M.
Issue the r/s and simultaneously issue the necessary additional shares to sichuan or other investing partners to achieve the 35M market cap value and hope it sticks for the 10 days necessary?
Even if that does happen, and they don't drop too much on the r/s, I feel like with a 4$ share price, the likelihood of it jumping like it can in the pennies is much lower.
Keep in mind a 50/1 r/s would be leaving us with 2m shares, you really think that the cap of this company would drop to around 2m after the split? Also, what about the 35M market cap requirement in addition to the 1$ share price? That would need 0.15 at full diliution(~120M more warrants exercised) to reach that point. I feel like that would signal a never ending cycle of dilution, r/s & dilute dilute dilute.
185k bid up at 0.06 right now. I want to see this thing back into the mid .07's at least today.
Hope you're right. Was tempted to sell off, but figured I'd give them some more time.
Some PR
At least it's something. I doubt it'll have much effect though with the current industry situation.
Yeah, they have to to keep public interest, especially after the whole ordeal yesterday.
They've got the vote coming up within a month, for which they still need a filing to specify the date on that. Not to mention they have to start drilling in August for the beginning stages of the DFS. Will be interesting to say the least how the industry news affects them.
I'm still holding out hope that Sichuan helps them through the process.
And it'll come back to life when the next piece of PR is posted, the cycle will continue.
I think it's better to not even watch this today lol