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Selling pops is the only way to beat the big guys. Otherwise they win and retail loses.
For those who have noticed, ARIA usually has two pops: one in premarket that goes way higher than the price on during regular trading hours, and market open for the first 5-10 minutes.
Sell the pop and hype; buy it back in a week after it drops.
Congratulations ARIA longs!
I agree. But once the reality sets in that we are trapped under $12.50 for a while, and 1.8 million shares are hitting the float, selling pressure will greatly increase. We have already hit $12.35 in premarket. I look for a low today near $11.90 when people hit the exit door. This stock does not have much volume, so when buyers or sellers come and go in mass quantities, the share price reflects it.
There will be some large holders who want out quickly. Their shares will go for cheap. Remember, many people loaded up in the 10's, so they can sell in the mid-11's and still make money.
J,
All that follows is FWIW, in case any of it helps you:
I did a little research on about 20 REIT's which caught my attention, and in my research I found NLY to be extremely weak financially, and getting weaker. AGNC looked decent. ARR is poorly managed, in my opinion, and not on stable ground financially. CYS is going broke, and their dividend is going to be cut quarter after quarter, year after year, unless they have a major turn around. HTS looks like a solid REIT, but the dividend is a little lower than some.
After researching the REIT's, the three factors I leaned heavily upon were:
1. Percentage dividend yield (the higher the better, obviously);
2. The volatility of the share price (I don't mind volatility, provided I can buy low!). I bought those REIT's which were at or near their 52 week lows (I wanted to buy JMI, but I missed the run-up);
3. Stable or increasing dividend yields
I finally narrowed my REIT portfolio down to the following:
ORC (I plan to invest 50% of my portfolio in this one)
OAKS (15%)
DX (15%)
MFA (10%)
AGNC (15%)
I also grabbed a little PDH 2 weeks ago.
I covet your critiques and/or input of the REIT's I invested in.
The shares are priced at $12.50; looks like we will have ample opportunity to buy in the $11.75-$12.50 range in the next couple weeks. It might be a stretch, but with 1.8 million shares hitting the market, and the ex-dividend date of January 23 approaching, I think we see prices dip all the way down to $11.50. I'll be a gradual buyer, putting buy orders in from $12 down to $11, every .25 cents. I like ORC's model for 2014 and 2015 and intend to load up in the next couple weeks and then hang on tight.
GLTA.
Orchid Island Capital Prices Public Offering of Common Stock
3 hours 33 minutes ago - DJNF
Orchid Island Capital Prices Public Offering of Common Stock
NEW YORK, Jan. 16, 2014 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (the "Company") (NYSE MKT:ORC) announced today the pricing of its public offering of 1,800,000 shares of common stock at $12.50 per share. The offering is expected to close on January 23, 2014. The Company has granted the underwriters a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 270,000 shares of common stock on the same terms and conditions to cover over-allotments, if any. All of the shares in the public offering are being offered by the Company.
Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc., a subsidiary of Ladenburg Thalmann Financial Services Inc. (NYSE MKT:LTS), and Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. are joint book running managers for the offering. Mitsubishi UFJ Securities (USA), Inc. is lead manager for the offering, and Aegis Capital Corp., Maxim Group LLC and National Securities Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of National Holdings, Inc. (NHLD), are co-managers for the offering.
That's what I wanted to hear. I'll be a buyer once they announce the price of the share offering. Thanks.
You are in good shape.
Do you have any idea whether ORC will continue to pay out 18 cents/share each month, or if the dividend will drop back down to 13.5 cents?
I am having a hard time figuring out why they would raise the dividend for two months, and then do a share offering. Any ideas? It seems to me they could have kept the dividend price where it was and avoided the share offering.
If the price drops $1.00/share, then if I miss .18cents/share dividend, I will have saved myself .82cents/share. I agree REIT's are great dividend stocks long term, but the entry point matters. If I can enter around $12/share, then I can buy many more shares and more than make up for the 18 cents I lose out on this month. I plan to wait until the stock goes ex-dividend later this month. The share price offering coupled with the ex-dividend ought to drive the share price to extreme lows in early February. I will be a buyer then.
I'm waiting to buy in until they announce the price of shares. I expect they will announce the price today or tomorrow. The price of shares in the offering will entirely dictate the trading share price. I am afraid to buy right now since my guess is they offer the shares somewhere in the range of $11.50 and $12.50. With 1.5 million shares to be issued, it will take 11 trading days, or nearly 2.5 weeks, to chew through them, and that is not including having to chew through all the shares of those who sell. The share price will be stuck below the offering price for at least a month. Wait and see and buy accordingly.
We will know more in the future. Right now the volume in PGRX tells the entire story: no interest. And what they need to make this work is a high level of interest from outside investors. Bottom line: they need to be able to sell shares to make this work. But at the current volume they can't even begin to sell shares without killing the share price below NASDAQ listing requirements.
As for Sichuan Chemical, they have more than likely used any contingent agreement with PGRX for a price leveraging tool. Now they can go to PGRX's competitors and say, "We agreed to pay this much for PGRX potash, can you beat their price?"
PGRX may do well, but I think it heads down to bankruptcy by year's end. Or, due to lack of interest, they start selling huge amounts of shares and drive the share price into the ground and de-list to the OTC. FWIW. GLTY.
smak,
Neither. Not bitter, and not shorting. I'm not in PGRX at all, and probably never will be again. Just thought I would help out those thinking of investing here. PGRX is a VERY long shot, and the historical charts tell the story: down, down, and more down. Investing in PGRX is like trying to catch a falling knife. There is much more money to be made elsewhere.
The reason why the share price dropped on the last PR is because the news wasn't that great. What is hanging over the head of PGRX having to come up with 25 million dollars without destroying the share price. The last PR told us that in order to come up with 7 million dollars they had to dilute. What does this tell us? It tells us this: no major investors outside those immediately connected with PGRX think this is a good long term investment.
And none of this is even taking into consideration the funding of the Definitive Feasibility Study later this year, and the nearly 1 billion it will take to build out the mine. GLTY. GLTA. FWIW.
You might be able to make a little money in PGRX on some quick swing trades, but PGRX itself is heading to zero. Not only is potash no longer a hot speculative market, there is just no way PGRX is going to be able to raise the nearly 1 billion dollars it would take to build the mine. And if they do raise it, it will be through the selling of shares. At best, I think PGRX will eventually build out the mine, but it will so badly damage the share price that they will eventually have to delist to the OTC, and there they will dilute to no end.
I thought about jumping in here again, but I lost so much money in this stock it just isn't worth the risk. Take a long hard look at the reality which PGRX is up against, and it will make you think twice before investing here. Bankruptcy is a far greater possibility than is profitability, and if you don't believe me, call the company. They need a wing and a prayer to make this work. GLTA.
mcbio,
Your comment is well taken. I should not have commented on CNAT like I did. I agree with your statement that they shuffled off a value asset, but they are still a viable company with a good future. I think GALT is a better investment than CNAT in the short term, especially in the next 2-3 months, but CNAT is a good investment long term. GLTY.
GALT is the real deal. Their fatty liver disease drug, GR-MD-02 received phase 1 fast track approval from the FDA, and GALT has just raised 23 million to cover phase 2 costs. Moreover, when you have on your board a reputable, former Apple CEO (Gilbert Amelio) you have a lot of financial backing and connections. GALT is ready to run big in the coming months. Read more below:
Galectin Therapeutics Reports on Key 2013 Scientific, Development and Regulatory Milestones, Highlights Corporate and Financial Activity
NORCROSS, Ga., Jan. 8, 2014 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Galectin Therapeutics Inc. (Nasdaq:GALT), the leading developer of therapeutics that target galectin proteins to treat fibrosis and cancer, today released a report on the Company's key scientific, development and regulatory milestones and corporate activity that contributed to the Company's progress in 2013.
Key activity in 2013 included:
Submission of an Investigational New Drug (IND) application to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for the Company's proprietary galectin inhibitor GR-MD-02 in fatty liver disease, and subsequent notification from the FDA to proceed with a Phase 1 clinical trial for GR-MD-02 in fatty liver disease with advanced fibrosis.
Receipt of Fast Track designation from the FDA for GR-MD-02 in fatty liver disease.
First patient enrolled in the first-in-man Phase 1 clinical trial for GR-MD-02 in fatty liver disease, currently taking place at six trial sites across the U.S.
Preclinical data showed the Company's galectin inhibitors may have therapeutic effect in diabetic kidney disease, contribute to reversal of cirrhosis and reduction of fibrosis, and significantly improve non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) activity.
Two executives were added to the Company's management team and several key investments occurred, including the exercise of common stock purchase warrants and a private placement of 500,000 shares of unregistered common stock.
"I am pleased to report that 2013 was a year of noteworthy progress for Galectin Therapeutics," said Peter G. Traber, M.D., Chief Executive Officer, President and Chief Medical Officer, Galectin Therapeutics. "We believe strongly that galectin inhibitors hold immense promise for the treatment of fibrosis and inflammation, and the Company will continue to work diligently toward the ultimate goal of bringing a first-in-class treatment to the millions of Americans suffering from fatty liver disease with advanced fibrosis."
A summary of Galectin Therapeutics' accomplishments in 2013 can be found on the Company's website at www.galectintherapeutics.com/GALT2013.
I agree LJPC is a joke; I strongly disagree GALT is a joke. GALT is the real deal, even more so than CNAT. Their fatty liver disease drug, GR-MD-02 received phase 1 fast track approval from the FDA, and GALT has just raised 23 million to cover phase 2 costs. Moreover, when you have on your board a reputable, former Apple CEO (Gilbert Amelio) you have a lot of financial backing and connections. GALT is ready to run big in the coming months. Read more below:
Galectin Therapeutics Reports on Key 2013 Scientific, Development and Regulatory Milestones, Highlights Corporate and Financial Activity
NORCROSS, Ga., Jan. 8, 2014 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Galectin Therapeutics Inc. (Nasdaq:GALT), the leading developer of therapeutics that target galectin proteins to treat fibrosis and cancer, today released a report on the Company's key scientific, development and regulatory milestones and corporate activity that contributed to the Company's progress in 2013.
Key activity in 2013 included:
Submission of an Investigational New Drug (IND) application to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for the Company's proprietary galectin inhibitor GR-MD-02 in fatty liver disease, and subsequent notification from the FDA to proceed with a Phase 1 clinical trial for GR-MD-02 in fatty liver disease with advanced fibrosis.
Receipt of Fast Track designation from the FDA for GR-MD-02 in fatty liver disease.
First patient enrolled in the first-in-man Phase 1 clinical trial for GR-MD-02 in fatty liver disease, currently taking place at six trial sites across the U.S.
Preclinical data showed the Company's galectin inhibitors may have therapeutic effect in diabetic kidney disease, contribute to reversal of cirrhosis and reduction of fibrosis, and significantly improve non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) activity.
Two executives were added to the Company's management team and several key investments occurred, including the exercise of common stock purchase warrants and a private placement of 500,000 shares of unregistered common stock.
"I am pleased to report that 2013 was a year of noteworthy progress for Galectin Therapeutics," said Peter G. Traber, M.D., Chief Executive Officer, President and Chief Medical Officer, Galectin Therapeutics. "We believe strongly that galectin inhibitors hold immense promise for the treatment of fibrosis and inflammation, and the Company will continue to work diligently toward the ultimate goal of bringing a first-in-class treatment to the millions of Americans suffering from fatty liver disease with advanced fibrosis."
A summary of Galectin Therapeutics' accomplishments in 2013 can be found on the Company's website at www.galectintherapeutics.com/GALT2013.
Load the dip today. We run after today.
By the looks of it we will hit $3.00 by day's end and continue the run-up through the week. It has been a long time coming for PGRX longs!
I'll be back next week Monday and Tuesday. If the share price holds up well on Tuesday, I might buy some shares then. I think we see next 52 week lows between now and next week Wednesday. Throwing 2 million shares onto the bid will kill the share price. If it gets down to .07 area, I'll load some up. I'm not sure why anyone is buying at the current prices, but each person has their own strategy. GLTA.
I am amazed at the timing of announcements. 1.6 million shares are unlocked today and tomorrow, and another huge round of shares unlocks early next week. For those interested in buying the news, wait it out. The price may jump to .14 or .15, but by later this week and next week, it will be back down in the .10's, and maybe down to the 7's and 8's. Don't load up until the bottom.
GLTA.
Yes, the Rapimeds website has been suspended. The reason is yet unknown.
I lessened my stake here on the pops last week. Something is not right. GLTA.
I will load up more at .06 and .07 shortly after January 7 when the major round of shares become convertible and will be sold. We have not even hit the worst of the dilution yet, so hold on tight, we are going to drop. I hope everyone has a lot of dry powder left. Get ready to shoot late next week and the week after.
Cheers all
Now is the time of year to load up the shares! I just finished loading this past week, now holding 415,000 shares and patiently waiting. GLTA.
Cheers
I don't think the stock will drop suddenly. I think we are in for a slow bleed through the end of the year and beginning of next year until we receive some sort of news. Hopefully the next piece of news will be positive.
Run is over. Start putting in your bids where you think the bottom will be. Stagger them down.
I call it the 8:00 crush. Someone lets the premarket run up through the roof, and at about 8am they crush the price back down. Has been happening a lot lately.
Thanks Griff.
That's news to me. My Scottrade broker said it has to settle that year, but maybe I was misinformed. Thanks for the information.
Not only tax loss, but 4th quarter revenue figures weigh heavily on the stock. Some claim there will be share price forgiveness for the lackluster 4th quarter earnings call (which we all know is coming), but reality is the earnings call will be a disaster when it comes to revenue and real numbers. I think many investors plan to wait until that "dip" to buy in. It is just a different strategy.
If you have a major loss on an investment during the year, you can deduct that loss on your taxes. However, you must sell the stock/investment for a loss during the year, and the trade must settle on or before December 31. Since it takes 3 days for a trade to settle, the last day of 2013 to sell your underwater stock so you can deduct the loss is tomorrow.
I would be crazy to be short on this stock right now. I am long right now with a small position and have buy orders in down in the mid-6's.
There has been a small premarket run-up nearly every day the past week, and the premarket has almost always peaked higher than the day high. One day the premarket was up in the 8's, but the day high only hit $7.40. I am trying to prevent people from buying high in the premarket only to regret it later when they could have bought at reduced prices during regular trading hours.
It is not overly heavy volume. It is a few people probably wanting in because they think they might miss the run. It will come back down and maybe even trade red today. Tomorrow, with the tax selling deadline for 2013, looms over the share price today.
There is too much positive interest in this stock right now for it to take a hard hit downward. Every single wave of buying has met with significant buying, and with the sheer anticipation of the China deal ramping up, I think we are on our way slowly Northward. Now is a great time to be in SCRC.
Originally I was worried about interest in SCRC, but now I no longer am. There are hoards of interested buyers here scooping up hundreds of thousands of shares. Good days ahead!
Cheers all
We're about to run!
Selling is about over.
Buy in now and hold and wait. The elevator is going up. .20's here we come.
I'm long ARIA.
Get ready for a pullback, unless you think that ARIA can run up for 10 or 20 days straight with no red.
I think the air is about to be let out of ARIA. It is due for a retracement back to the mid-6's. Couple that with tax selling on Thursday and Friday, and we have the makings of a downtrend between now and next week.
Cheers all
Anyone else think this is about to bust open into the .20's any day now?
Go SCRC!
They can buy back in whenever they want, but if they want to keep the tax loss, they have to wait 30 days.
What few people don't understand is the news isn't even out much. Plenty of people won't be finding out for a few days, or even after the holidays. ARIA is going to slowly progress up. Today is just the beginning.