Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Foot what exactly do the bars in back represent? (Which indicator/oscillator?)
TIA
Foot, LOL, it's hard to do (be positive) with MER, AIG, LEH losing so much value in a week. Sure wish I was short those stocks!
MER down -36% this week.
LEH down -77% this week.
AIG down -45% this week.
Lehmanites boosting the economy by drinking their sorrows away. (I've actually been there, not drinking my sorrows away but in a lay-off with the tech bubble burst in 2000/2001.) It was miserable slow grind down from 1200 employees to 30 and since I took care of the network infrastructure/security I was one of the last people left, talk about depressing and depressed people. But at the time I was single and young and my parents told me to save and be thrifty so it didn't really affect me, and I was luckily able to easily get a job right away (within 2 weeks) while they gave me 6 weeks severance.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/12/news/companies/lehworkers_kimes/index.htm
On a positive note, VXO, is getting close to a bottom. But, the VXN needs to tag ~35, QQV tag ~33, VIX ~30 meaning there is still some more room for fear to go up.
Well I guess if we end the week on a positive note (Weekly NDX in the green), if this is like the past 6 out of 8 OEs, we may end on a negative note next week. But then of course if the fed cuts, Leh actually finds a buyer with the help of the Feds/Treasury and hurricane Ike blows over with no damages, we could be setting up for another positive week like in August.
There's a lot of what-if scenarios which basically means we're at a pivotal point here and the next breakout which ever direction is going to be big.
Is that why the dollar is dropping today and $GOLD is bouncing?
Gleno, I don't know this H+S 15min pattern will follow through, but the QQQQs on the 15min has negative divergence, CCI can't get above 100, MACD neg. D, ADX rolling down, and RSI rolling down after a lower high too. If this rolls down past the ~43.02 neckline, QQQQs target would be ~42.35.
It looks like we have to make another lower low on the $SPX, sub 1200 while the $SPXA50R makes a higher low to get the divergence seen between January/march08.
Edit - at the very least make a double bottom on the $SPX at 1200 like in Sept07 and Nov07 with the positive D on the $SPXA50R
Fox actually looking at that chart again with the pre/during OE week. It looks like in Jan08 and Aug08 those were the two times it didn't work. It being down pre OE/up during OE and vice versa. In Jan 08 we went straight down, and in Aug08 we went straight up for two weeks.
I guess 6 out of 8 isn't terrible in terms of stats. But the sampling size may be too small and I don't have time to go back 3 years.
Fox, nice call so far. Looks like the markets are heading back down.
I don't know if this chart tells us much... But I have been mapping the preOE week and during OE week between the two blue lines from Jan 08.
It looks like if we head down pre-OE, we head back up during actual OE week, and after OE we resume course following the interim trend.
OT - Gleno, seems like you've been doing really well at golf lately. I haven't played in a couple years. I always had a terrible time putting. (Get on the green usually in 3 shots and then blow it all the time 3-4 putting.)
I haven't been making much $$ lately. A .25/.50 scalp here/there, some break-even trades, and holding some losses on the QLDs. For me, it's been tough lately trying to get a proper read. Normally when I start getting indecisive/2nd guessing a lot, like you said, there's going to be a big move coming, and I just need to make sure I have a bunch of powder dry to catch the next major trend which I believe will be more down since these indicators can still $NAMO, $NASI, $VXO/$VXN, $BPNDX, and $NDXA50R:$NDXA200R resets.
At this juncture I am more short than long.
http://tinyurl.com/3fgg87
Foot, I think this rally is suspect. For such a big move today on the $NDX, the $NAMO went down -.38?? Is the feed wrong? Also, $NASI is negative today -19.15 and only 13 new highs? $NAHGH actually went down today by -9.
http://stockcharts.com/charts/indices/McsumNASD.html
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NAHGH&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p45383741931
I am thinking we will be heading back down shortly after this bounce is over.
The $USD is rallying but so is the Yen. As I said before, someone is wrong here.
Your Yen chart:
Finally, I don't see how we can start turning to the upside with the Treasury/Feds trying to sale Lehman by this Sunday. It sure makes you wonder what else is going to fail next. We should start up a Bank/Loan death pool. Bet on which one goes bust first. Rules being it has to be a top 20 bank, not a regional/small one.
"
Lehman for sale in rush to salvage struggling firm
Treasury, Fed reportedly helping as deal sought by this weekend
By Alistair Barr, MarketWatch
Last update: 6:38 p.m. EDT Sept. 11, 2008
Comments: 252
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Lehman Brothers is for sale as Wall Street and financial regulators rush to salvage a once-thriving brokerage firm that's threatened by a potential exodus of clients and trading partners."
http://tinyurl.com/4bl4ru
Is this considered bad news about LEH takeover/sale? or good news that now the uncertainty is out.
Lehman Brothers: Federal reserve, Treasury negotiating sales of LEH - DJ
5:33 PM ET 9/11/08 | Briefing.com
Fed, Treasury arranging sale of Lehman Brothers: report
By Sue Chang
Last update: 5:41 p.m. EDT Sept. 11, 2008
Comments: 11
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch)
http://tinyurl.com/525lt3
I wonder if Wamu is next.
Gleno, I think we are going to chop around til tuesday of next week which is when the FOMC meets/announces rates. Could be in this 60min trading range til then.
Gleno, I think we are going to chop around til tuesday of next week which is when the FOMC meets/announces rates. Could be in this 60min trading range til then.
Farooq,
We would have to hit 43.80 on your chart in order to print a green brick since renko requries a 2 box reversal. Renko is similiar to P&F except the default for most P&F is a 3 box reversal. I tend to not use Hi/low cause there can be more whippage involved on the daily charts.
I decided on .8 because it seemed like a happy medium between slight whippage and no whippage/getting into the trend too late. Although, .6pts closing actually isn't too bad, there appears to be 1-2 whips per every major trend. I guess you could theoretical ignore the first whip and take the 2nd.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQQ&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p35433232528
QQQQ Daily Renko system is calling for a reversal/green brick print at 44.80.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQQ&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p34570960094
Well we just blew through 42.80. Nothing but Green buy volumes all morning since the openning gap down. Trinq @ .41
Just filled the QQQQ gap @ 42.72. I see tough resistance @ 42.80
Yeah, we couldn't get past the 1750 $NDX 60min resistance line. I took a quick QID scalp and made +.50 in the last 15 mins. My order went through a few mins ago @ 49.20. But it sure looks like we'll probably not do much but consolidate before the FOMC meeting next week.
I am thinking a potential to 43.20 on QQQQ and then a reverse. Looking at ~48.20 to possibly get in on QID.
Gleno, it'd be great if Nasdaq would drop one more day and have another trinq greater than 2. Scamman use to talk greatly about the double deuce being quite rare. Meaning greater than 2 back to back Trin or Trinq readings which means a strong bounce is coming in a few days.
Anyhow, here's some stats. We recently have had 7 straight down days on the $NDX.
Look at the past 7 days and the big strong red sell volumes.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NDX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p64198467613
It'd be nice to get a flush out and a re-test of March lows at ~1670 followed by a nice bounce during the next Brad turn date which is after the FOMC meeting 9/16 and after OE 9/19.
Old article from this past January 08.
"Crazy eight
Commentary: Eight losing sessions in a row usually followed by gains"
http://tinyurl.com/6r224o
Banks just broke out of a 2month trading range thanks to the Bailouts. ~364 is the 200dma. That looks like pretty tough resistance. Since banks lead the markets that will be an interesting point to watch.
$GOLD daily symmetric triangle. Watch the break. Symmetric triangles are continuation patterns/coils. The trend is down, it is quite possible to see ~$675 Gold as the $USD continues to rally to 82. But I think $675 may be a good entry point for an initial entry.
$NASI and $NAMO looks like we have more room to fall. On a daily time frame the $NASI appears to have a negative divergence. Although ST with the Mae/Mac bailout we'll have a bounce followed by a lower low is my thought.
-1000 to -1100 looks like a good entry for longs coupled with -50 to -55 on the $NAMO, and -200 on the 5%/10% index.
Interesting data compiled by LesH on Options week before/after.
Most of the time it has been negative the week before OpEx, except for August, and then a positive week during OpEx.
But with the Mae and Mac news, we might do the exact opposite this time like in August. Positive week before and then flat to negative week after.
http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=24918502
Remember this H+S pattern? Backtest of the weekly neckline on the Utils and a reversal down. SDP starting to break out.
Hmm... Well it looks like banks are starting to rally.
UYG hitting HOD @ 21.23 (+.42)
Banks leading?
Hammering out a daily bottom? I guess it is too soon to tell, we'll have to see what happens around 2:30-3:30 PM.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NDX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p27713741496
I guess we'll have to see if we can break that downtrend line on the 15min chart. Without a break of that DT line, we're still in a downtrend for the ST which is around 43.55ish.
In terms of IT. Yes, I have been using Leftyg's Renko charts, and I do trade off of it which is saving my butt on the ST trade since I am slightly more short than long.
QQQQ's using an .8 pt/brick is still in a downtrend. QQQQ will need to get above 45.60 to reverse and print a green brick at the close of the day which I doubt it'll do but you never know.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQQ&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p34570960094
Gleno, yeah, I guess that chart is way too long term for this board since most look at the 1-15min charts. So back to the 5min charts, let's see if QQQQs can even break 43.48 on this burn.
Gleno, who knows if the 200ma will stop us. We're really oversold and due for a bounce but that could be another 1-2 weeks from now like in Jan 08.
Earlier in the week, the $NDX broke down from the symmetrical triangle pattern and may target 1550 in a few months (3-6) or possibly 1446, July 07's low.
$NAUD is at a weekly low where reversals has come but RSI isn't even close to 30 yet.
$NDX gap just closed @ 1752.28 from 3/24. There's another gap around 1706 made on 3/18.
Trend1,
I was looking at LesH's 10d #s on Siliconinvestor. What constitutes a turn? On $SPX 80/28 appears to be the two numbers that you use.
For Oil&Gas Drillers it's hit 3 on the 10dma for the past 2 days.
XAU has been 0 for the past two days.
Oil & Gas Drillers, Field Services, and Equipment (62 stocks)
OSX Amex Oil Services Index and OIH Oil Services Holders
_ percent stocks over MA Trend Price Phase
_ market OSX 10 d 21 d 50 d 200d Score Phase Change
_---------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----- ----- ------
_Sep 4 267 3 6 3 21 -100 -4.99
_Sep 3 271 3 8 8 26 -67 -4.21
_Sep 2 278 6 13 11 31 -34 -3.42 DOWN
_Aug 29 294 60 68 23 48 33 -2.77
_Aug 28 300 87 82 26 57 49 -2.80
_Aug 27 303 90 84 28 59 72 -3.10
_Aug 26 300 87 72 20 57 86 -3.65
_Aug 25 294 57 51 15 48 99 -4.13
_Aug 22 298 89 64 15 51 98 -4.34
_Aug 21 303 92 72 20 57 65 -4.78
_Aug 20 297 80 56 18 52 37 -5.60
_Aug 19 287 43 25 16 41 -38 -6.24 UP
_Aug 18 279 21 18 10 33 39 -6.47
Gold Miners (27 stocks)
XAU Phila Gold Miners Index and ASA Closed-End Fund
_ percent stocks over MA Trend Price Phase
_ market XAU 10 d 21 d 50 d 200d Score Phase Change
_---------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----- ----- ------
_Sep 4 129 0 0 0 4 -95 -9.01
_Sep 3 134 0 4 4 7 -72 -8.00
_Sep 2 139 7 15 4 7 48 -7.25 DOWN
_Aug 29 149 70 52 15 11 79 -6.77
_Aug 28 151 93 56 15 15 88 -7.15
_Aug 27 151 85 41 11 7 97 -7.75
_Aug 26 147 70 26 11 7 99 -8.47
_Aug 25 147 63 11 7 7 100 -8.88
_Aug 22 149 78 19 7 7 84 -9.27
_Aug 21 154 93 33 11 7 61 -9.86
_Aug 20 145 44 4 4 7 40 -11.03
_Aug 19 143 26 7 4 7 24 -11.51 UP
_Aug 18 139 15 0 4 7 -42 -11.74
TIA
Wow... I don't think there's any blood left for the vampires to feed on. I didn't get out @ $NDX 1795 like I should've. That's two bad moves this week. At this juncture I will wait to see what happens @ 1761, the July bottom. I am not adding anymore to my ST position and I definitely need to decide on an exit strategy.
Gleno LOL... that is a nice short though, if it can get below $31, you'll be rolling around in even more dough.
Yup... Like an idiot... This will be my last counter-trend trade on any Short-term trades. It kills me 50% of the time cause the bounces are always less than I think.
The good thing is I am short on the Interim Term and have slightly more money short than long, so I am not hurting badly, but not making as much money either.
Yeah, my post to foot 2 days ago was I hope they don't decide to retest the July NDX lows this week. I guess that will happen today or early tomorrow.
I'll have to figure out an exit strategy now and take my losses. This could be a $COMP 80 point down day at this rate.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=31890690
Euterpe1,
Let me know how that goes with BoA. I have thought about doing that too. (Like's/Dislike's, interface, limit orders, whether they can be conditional (such as if $NDX is 1800 then buy at market QID) or with trailing stops, etc.)
TIA.
I can't remember the gap fill rules. Does a partial gap fill count as a fill? We had a partial fill today on QQQQ as the HOD was 44.91. But to entirely fill the gap we need to go all the way back up to 45.12. I guess we'll have to see what happens 1st around 44.80 on the 5 min charts. (We may get to that level and reverse back down.)
If we knife on through ~1795-1800 I'm gonna have to look for the exit doors. We could possibly go all the way back to March lows.
1800 looks like good support, but so did 1850. LOL... I guess supports don't matter when the boys start selling.
Just picked up another 1/4 position @ QLD at 69.60. I sure love fighting the trend. LOL... Now at 1/2 for the ST portfolio.
Thanks. May be the VIX and VXN doesn't work as well as it use. I guess looking at that ratio chart we won't see the market bottom or this ratio $VIX:VXV top until around ~1.15, which would put us at testing July lows for the $SPX and quite possible going towards March lows for the $NDX.
The out of the Bolingerbands on the VIX:VXV shows the tops/bottoms nicely.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX:$VXV&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p92292285831