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not so underwater. way overweight. very nervous....
accountants will stick to principles. if Fannie ends up violating GAAP principles under force of demarco, the accountants will not sign off on the audit/annual report.
what is being negotiated is how government wants to treat this. I think they will issue a statement that causes august 17th, or, and this is like a 5% chance, they release from conservatorship.
I think one of those two scenarios comes with the earnings release. they will be condemned in a way we can't imagine, or released.
the more each day passes with fannie, the more worried I am getting of a sledge hammer when released. the math is quite simple. whatever is being negotiated in the back room has me really, really worried. so much time has gone by, this tells me it has not been a simple discussion....
don't know what you mean by that? "Prem"?
if you ever want to protest deletion: http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/ReviewRequestQueueBoard.asp?board_id=20248
kissing...you must also believe in the illuminati??? how about the knights templar? have you not seen the handful of times 4cent and I came to blows? (usually politics).
anyway, you too can be an assistant moderator. takes a few clicks, and you can see all.
also, you can appeal any deleted posts to ihub.
lastle, what the heck is berkshire and fairfax?
SA -- only asst. moderators can post stickies. we get one each. i used mine (for now) to continue posting difference between c-ship and receivership. especially with all these newbies coming on (welcome!). it has been a pain in the butt for years now, that r-ship/c-ship argument. might as well put it up for all to see....
4cent makes his own judgments...and I don't feel it is my right to ever comment. if one volunteers as an assistant moderator, one gets all the privilege that comes with it.
the law is "NCAA Tournament Hookey Act"
An Act of Congress, sponsored by Senator Bill Bradley (D) of NJ and Senator Bob Dole (R) of KS [both basketball players]
All trading in GSE preferred shares must cease by opening tip off of the day sessions in the NCAA tournament. All market makers for these securities must lock up their offices and report to the nearest bar which they may not leave until the night sessions conclude.
Signed into law by President George H.W. Bush
camro: 1.) redeeming fnmfm will never happen (IMHO) 2.) if your scenario occurs, we all go to RV because of the precedent.
here's a case of the world's finest champagne for you if your musing plays out!
10 days to end of Q1...in case you didn't notice...and we still don't know where Fannie is on Q4 LOL!!! they will report, and will report again about 6 weeks later!
cause fnmfm took way too much crack, crank, crystal meth, and red bull this morning...the rest of the band is trying to get her to come down from the ceiling before she gets hurt.
FNMFM: if the preferreds are rock stars...this one is the manic depressive, hotel trashing, band leader....
FNMFM 11:46AM $16.00!!!! Up $9.01 Up 128.90% 9,267
if the preferreds are rock stars...this one is the manic depressive, hotel trashing, band leader....
http://finance.yahoo.com/quotes/FMCC,FNMA,FMCKJ,FMCKI,FMCCM,FMCCK,FMCCT,FMCCI,FMCKK,FMCCG,FMCCH,FMCCL,FMCCN,FMCCO,FMCCP,FMCCJ,FMCKP,FMCCS,FMCKO,FMCKM,FMCKN,FMCKL,FNMAP,FNMAO,FNMAM,FNMAG,FNMAN,FNMAL,FNMAK,FNMAH,FNMAI,FNMAJ,FNMAS,FNMAT,FNMFM,FNMFN/view/v2?info=view_updated
that is the craziest f'ing stock in the whole bunch....remember the one cent trades after august 17th???
bp--this then:
Bronte Capital's Hempton argues that Fannie and Freddie traded at about $50 each per share in good times, which equates to $10 today since the government owns 80% of them. That's about nine times the $1.08 price where they closed on Wednesday. So even if you believe that Fannie and Freddie will return to their pre-crisis level of profitability, which seems like a rather large leap, you make nine times your money. That's just a little bit better than the preferred, with considerably more risk.
john hempton's mouth to market ears
Seeking Alpha via dynect-mailer.net
10:11 AM (15 minutes ago)
to me
11:11 AM From John Hempton's mouth to the market's ears. The "just insane" bidding up of the almost certainly worthless common stock of Fannie and Freddie (FNMA.OB, FMCC.PB) savagely reverses, with both falling more than 50% within minutes. Read comments
hope those commons got out at a buck forty!! bottom dropped out on the froth...
wow...when does the hammer drop??? still soaring...no news...either something leaked, or we are going to crash HARD
well, I am taking at least ten grad off today for a few months of expenses...but holding till fannie reports....
or...after big runup...30% losses...since 2011...like me....
I was 2/3 F&F, 1/3 ACAS a month ago...probably (have not run the math) 80% F&F, 20% ACAS now...
I was a -6 before Freddie earnings and the runup just before that...The green has been so good to me, I'd be at a +2 or 3 right now if I weren't so scared of an August 17th-type bitch slapping. That really weighs on my mood despite all the reason for (rightful) joy many among us have today...
where are you on the F&F "Happiness Scale"?
Why not...take a poll....maybe that will flesh out everyone's probing about who is short/long, who's up/down, positive about the future/not positive...etc.
let us know if you are short because your scale will be the inverse of the long position's scale!
Again...I'm -3
Scale is:
-10 = my wife will find me dead by sleeping pill OD in the morning
0 = neutral...don't know which way this f'n thing is blowing
+10 = I'm about to go take a lavish vacation, tell my boss to eff himself, and start spending my shares now...cause the ship is days away from coming in! (who has time to wait?!?! pop the cork!)
cork...i'm with you, but i'm still down a tad despite these glory days.
i'm just damn glad I didn't panic sell in august, I was minutes from pushing the button, and most here got the play by play as I was in total disarray. i would be feeling 100x worse than I do now if I had sold on or after the 17th!
If -10 is depression close to suicide and +10 is happy days forevermore, not a care in the world, there is a God, the kids won't get hit by a car, ever, marriage will be in eternal bliss...yada yada yada...
I'm a +6 right now on life in general (just to put you all at ease with my overall mental state)
...but probably -3 on my Freddie investment. I'd be -8 with my "Freddie happiness scale" right now if I sold August 17th!
riddle me this: preferred has to come to full value before commons even worth one cent. in 2011 and now, commons soar while preferreds have a nice run. will not the goose be cooked when preferreds run to par (RV) and THEN commons follow on the heels?
that gives me pause...if the news were really so outstanding, and not just high frequency trading, but real investor money, preferreds would have to be going to 50, 60 cents on the dollar
without preferreds made 100% whole, commons are worthless....
preferreds stuck because next hammer coming. that's what I think. i am holding till after fannie releases results, but I fear I can't sell quickly enough before some new treasury announcement goes out like August 17th because they DO NOT want to see our shares have value.
I don't know the end game, but I see it a long way out and don't doubt that politicians will do/say something that torches these shares for another 75% loss in one day.
I pray not, and I'm gambling by staying in...but, i gotta see Fannie's report...it will be HUGE.
dick kovacevich is former ceo and chairman of wells fargo. i actually met him in 2001...he knows his stuff. call it BS, but truth is, the big banks would love to underwrite all this business....
these are about identical levels seen in the March to May period in 2011.
we will wait and see indeed....
if you're putting money into these stocks today, you're betting that Washington can break through its gridlock and produce something that will make you a profit. The roulette wheel is spinning on that. Want to place the bet?
http://www.thestreet.com/story/11875415/2/freddie-and-fannie-trades-bet-on-elizabeth-warren.html
from 12cent's housing wire article:
"may continue to prosper as a result of improvements in the mortgage markets and recent guarantee fee hikes, the white paper explained. So instead of contracting, the GSEs could continue to expand."
all the crap they pulled hit the wires sunday night.
thinking of hank greenberg of AIG on Charlie Rose Monday night (I posted link earlier), the deVil came like a thief in the night! I can't wait to see how Hank's AIG shareholder suit resolves...the first test of the takings clause when applied to corporations.
he said he even got compensated when AIG units were nationalized in Pakistan and Iran for f'ks sake!
felt real in march 2011 when I first entered wounded.
I'm still in. no orders, riding the wave. suspect as hell...but intrigued, the financial theory has paid off...this is a winner, but only if the politicians let it.
we could seriously get slaughtered on this still...but, as the old boys say, buy the rumour, sell the news!
We have a $7! Do I hear $8??
FNMFM 10:51am EDT 7.00 1.80 +34.62% 800
http://finance.yahoo.com/quotes/FMCC,FNMA,FMCKJ,FMCKI,FMCCM,FMCCK,FMCCT,FMCCI,FMCKK,FMCCG,FMCCH,FMCCL,FMCCN,FMCCO,FMCCP,FMCCJ,FMCKP,FMCCS,FMCKO,FMCKM,FMCKN,FMCKL,FNMAP,FNMAO,FNMAM,FNMAG,FNMAN,FNMAL,FNMAK,FNMAH,FNMAI,FNMAJ,FNMAS,FNMAT,FNMFM,FNMFN/view/v2?info=view_updated
jemiller...i bought common at this price (well, 63 cents)...I made $100,000 one day, and then sold at 42 cents to buy preferred. commons never came above 42 cents again till the past few days.
beware the bitch slap, as I've been saying. careful...if this is daylight and the government will "let our people go", then great investment.
careful....
"It's a feeding frenzy in there. Basically, a bunch of monkeys humping doorknobs"
Funniest comment in years on this/YMB board!!!
i'll give a pass on grammar, he's obviously foreign, but he is talking arguments two years old and clearly doesn't understand the gravity of what politicians, 10-K's, and regulators are saying about value will be little if anything.
fool.com for a reason.
anyway, that said...yes, this could be one of the greatest long shot opportunities ever...but there is a reason share price is so low....
AIG's Hank Greenberg RAILS on the takings clause of the Constitution...a good 5 or 10 minutes last night on Charlie Rose:
http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/12827
we would be in exactly the same boat, but it seems that with the US Charter of the GSE's and past implicit guarantee, nobody but Ralph Nader (who is out of the picture now) has ever really discussed an F&F taking.
Unbelievable...so many ways this stock goes tits up...or we power through and riches await.
hate being in this many days....
yeah, no kidding
Freddie Mac Sues Big Banks
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323415304578370942774513414.html?ru=yahoo&mod=yahoo_hs
By JEAN EAGLESHAM, JEANNETTE NEUMANN and ALAN ZIBEL
Freddie Mac FMCC +34.87% sued more than a dozen big global banks, alleging they caused the government-controlled mortgage investor "substantial losses" by suppressing an interest-rate benchmark from 2007 to 2010.
The lawsuit names as defendants U.S. banks including Bank of America Corp. BAC +1.19% and J.P. Morgan Chase JPM -0.63% & Co., global lenders including Credit Suisse Group AG CSGN.VX -2.63% and UBS AG, UBSN.VX -2.90% and the British Bankers' Association, the group that oversees the daily setting of the London interbank offered rate, or Libor.
The suit claims the defendants colluded to suppress the rate of U.S. dollar Libor, which caused Freddie losses on interest-rate swaps it used to hedge the risks it took on in its mortgage-finance business.
The lawsuit is the first U.S. government-backed private litigation against big banks that sit on the panels that set Libor, which is used to help set the rates on trillions of dollars of loans and financial contracts world-wide.
Bank of America, J.P. Morgan, UBS, Credit Suisse and the bankers' association declined to comment.
Barclays BARC.LN -2.76% PLC, UBS and Royal Bank of Scotland Group RBS.LN -1.24% PLC have agreed to pay a total of about $2.5 billion in fines to settle Libor-rigging charges. All three banks admitted wrongdoing as part of the settlements.
"We have an obligation to minimize losses to taxpayers so we felt like we needed to preserve our claim and that was the purpose of filing this individual suit," a spokeswoman for Freddie said. She said the company is part of at least one other class-action lawsuit regarding Libor. She declined to comment on how much damages Freddie was seeking in the lawsuit.
The other government-controlled mortgage company, Fannie Mae, FNMA +37.81% is also weighing potential litigation, according to a person familiar with the matter.
The Freddie Mac suit isn't the first U.S. government-backed action to claim damages from banks over actions in recent years. In September 2011, the federal regulator for Fannie and Freddie sued 17 big financial institutions, accusing them of contributing to the near-collapse of the mortgage companies in September 2008.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency's lawsuits against Bank of America, Citigroup Inc., C -0.97% J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. GS -2.05% and others accused the banks of failing to adequately disclose the risks of nearly $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities.
The U.S. government took over Fannie and Freddie in September 2008 following the collapse of market financing for the companies. Taxpayers have since contributed more than $100 billion to back the companies, which don't make loans but account for the lion's share of U.S. home-loan financing.
—Shayndi Raice contributed to this article.
kyle bass on the record again:
http://www.thestreet.com/story/11874330/2/fannie-freddie-winners-on-bailout-payback-hopes.html
Probably the best-known investor to have acknowledged buying Fannie or Freddie preferred shares since the GSEs were put into conservatorship in 2008 is Kyle Bass of Hayman Capital. Bass told TheStreet in an email exchange in August that he had given up on the investment when he concluded that both Republicans and Democrats "wanted them dead."[url][/url][tag]insert-text-here[/tag]
In a follow-up email exchange on Tuesday, Bass wrote, "we have no position. Period. I won't comment on anything else."
Another investor, Michael Kao of Akanthos Capital Management, continues to believe the preferred shares are a good investment. Kao has consistently argued for more than two years that the preferred shares have value. Over that time the Freddie Mac preferred series Z shares, one of the most actively traded issues, have gone up and down -- from below $1 to more than $3, back below $1 and now back to over $3.
if i had never sold my common, i'd be sitting on a 10% gain right now. instead, i sold after it dropped some 30+% and bought preferreds a little bit above where they trade today, and am still down overall.
what a roller coaster....
what was the response? don't have time to listen now....