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The Young and the Restless continues.
For such a quite company that most investors don’t even know about, it seems now that there’s more behind the scenes that most of the current investors didn’t know.
What is it that usually is in the middle of a dispute that causes problems that we don’t hear about?
A female!
Ryoko. Is there a news release on the R/S?
Thanks.
2nd video.
I don’t have any connections inside TPL. However,
I do agree that it seems odd that TPL management would be so against having a one new trustee of a total of three?
It’s not a Ceo position. Unless someone with experience would be able to shed light on current management who got lucky.
Blackstone to convert from a partnership to a corporation. Why?
One reason is to be included in index’s.
Can TPL currently be included in index’s as a trust?
Like Buffet and the expertise of allocation of resources, one reason current management doesn’t want to change is the lack of an expertise in allocating resources.
I guess I’m stating the obvious for those who want Mr Oliver as a trustee.
Just like Buffet receives premiums from the insurance companies, TPL receives royalties. Now how to allocate to take TPL from 6 billion to 60 billion?
Ok thanks! ??
Is this a video presentation? Where is it? Surely it’s not just the information on trusttpl.com?
TPL and the allocation of resources.
With all the drama lately I thought I’d share how I include TPL as one stock in my Inflation Hedge account. What are the other stocks and could TPL mimic the same type of thinking to create the inflation hedge “Berkshire” type of investment/business model?
Buffet could have just bought back his shares??
Instead of insurance premiums to invest TPL has a continuous flow of Royalties.
Having expertise in Oil and Gas, Gold mining, timber, farming, real estate, etc. as well as water and sand.
other posts here have suggested the same and as streaming royalties. (Ie See Sandstorm, Sand) which has similar ingredients as TPL it’s just that gold hasn’t trended yet. And the dollar hasn’t fallen, yet.....
Sorry wrong post. Lol.
TPL and allocation of resources.
I use TPL as one stock within my Inflation hedge account. What are the other stocks within the account and could TPL leverage their income and credit to grow into an inflation hedge “Berkshire” type company? Instead of insurance premiums to invest it has a continual flow of royalty payments.
Other oil and gas, gold, timber, real estate, etc. sand and water.
other posts have mentioned the model of streaming royalties.
I understand it’s a totally different model and future. But that’s what all the current drama has been about.
This cheating girlfriend gets dumped again.
Avgr just needs to use these approvals to increase sales and then give insight for when it will be profitable.
?????.
This website doesn’t give us much to go on does it? I mean where is the outlook btw the two views?
TPL is business as usual? Meaning not much info?
I’m sure the General is an upstanding American but what is his vision for the future?
How about a YouTube explanation by both sides? (High tech I realize)
Let’s not let the stock price currently influence our opinion. That can change quickly.
My opinion is that the unlimited “black box” valuation has rewarded shareholders up until now. But......the opportunity for the future market cap for TPL?
A young CEO and a Board member passing along with the future of the Permian Basin and the water business. How about a Sand business as well? No one has ever mentioned that.
While watch what you wish for is wisdom, I think it’s the vision of the future that dictates what TPL shld do. My opinion would be to use the foundation of that property to leverage for future allocation of resources. Sort of how Buffet leveraged Berkshire and Insurance.
I wonder what Horizon thinks of this young Ceo?
That’s my question that could be good or bad.
Yes. But we see the stock still going up in the face of the “dispute”. Deals tend to get made when the parties see the $$ signs and who’s getting what. ??
Let’s not forget the inflation hedge that TPL is if/when the dollar falls.
Oil trending higher.
If oil breaks the 72.00 dollar high of last year, maybe we might get an expansion of the current PE in the 20’s. Let’s not forget that the PE when oil was over 70 was in the 40-50’s range. It’s why we always thought we needed just 20.00 of earnings to get to 1000.00, now we have 26.00 of earnings but still at 800.00. However that could change.
If this model changes I’m looking for a 10-1 stock split, increased volume and market coverage and transparency. It will be the before and after conversation. ??
I’m not sure I understand your reply/post.
My feedback question to the hype is why hasn’t GWPH created more cannabis products for treatment than one?
My other point to those who believe the medical industry is stopping the development of a cancer cannabis cure doesn’t know about GWPH. If there is a cannabis treatment no one is stopping GWPH from developing it and making billions for shareholders.
Cannabis cures everything?
Its the normal talking points of those in the movement.
Any opinions as to why GWPH has not expanded their product line of cannabis to other areas of disease?
Don’t the shareholders feel that if any company comes up with a cannabis treatment for “cancer” etc it would be GWPH?
There’s no conspiracy holding GWPH back.
Annual letter. Again the story seems like a great opportunity. Plus I think the ability to separate the cannabis and Cbd genetically like the tobacco plant seems interesting.
However, I guess time will tell if it’s just all of us being patient or if this is a bait and switch of a good story telling.
Is anyone else tired to hear the positive affects of these cigs and yet it seems like the FDA is sleeping at the wheel?
The more xixi issues these press releases the less affect they are having.
What’s the problem here? Other than the obvious of Government/Big Tobacco fascism?
The irony is going to be if the FDA before 2050 does pass the ruling , xxii won’t be the benefactor that everyone thinks it is.
Disclaimer: I do own shares.
A lot of us have been wanting more transparency from the company for a long time. Since it’s done so well, it’s not pressed as much. It seems bc it’s a trust the disclosure rules may be different.
This charter that they go by from years ago seems like a constitution. It should be change or amended bc the situation with the property is so different.
The new director is very young I believe? 30’s?
On the possible side I just read an article about how Horizontal drilling in old vertical wells is making a comeback. And they did mention the Permian Basin as one of the areas co’s are going back those old wells.
Front runners thought they knew something before AVGR gave their presentation on Weds. Didn’t happen. But .89 is some support.
Special Div? I would be happy with seeing a yearly dividend increase over time, but these special dividends? Wouldn’t it better to reinvest the cash into the company for increased earnings?
We don’t see Warren Buffet giving away cash, he’s looking to compound it better than average investors.
Looking thru the windshield 2019 TPL?
2019 vs 2018 (real apples to apples comparison) vs the oranges of 2017?
Aprox 45,000,000 in savings of taxes in 18’ vs 17, (5.84 in earnings).
18,000,000 in royalty sales (2.34 earnings. = 8.17
So what?
Realize that for TPL to grow earnings in 2019 vs 2018 net we are going to need an increase of 30%+ in Revenues or Revenue of 120 million (66% margins) just to stay even with earnings of 2018 with a PE of 31.00
Revenues were flat q/q w/o sale.
Water sales were down q/q. (Maybe sales pushed into 1stq of 19?
Pipeline issues in 19? Production ^
Water sales increase?
Nat Gas surprise increase in price?
Oil price increase with the Fed pausing? Inflation?
PE expansion or contraction?
Value of land to bal sheet?
How to deploy new cash to increase earnings?
Is a young CEO a good thing for growth or risky?
TPL has been a very unique stock to analyze. I’m trying to give an objective analysis for those new to TPL.
Of course open to others opinions and forecasts?
Thx.
Land sale.
I wonder if TPL will have a conference call or not about what they plan to do with the 100 million?
It’s a fair question for investors.
Oil has trended higher, however 2nd Q y/y earnings will be harder to beat (lower tax rate) than this report at the end of the month.
Momentum of TPL’s variables?
-On the way up in the last 2-3 years,
1. Market was climbing. Margin leverage. Only need more in for more profits. ??
2. Oil price rising.
3. More Production
4. Apache News in October 2016
5. Tax cut really added fuel to the bottom line fire.
6. Buying back sub-certif.
6. No quarterly estimates. Just more earnings than y/y.
How many of the green lights momentum above have changed recently?
A lot.
We kinda ran out of buyers at such a high price. Price doesn’t matter but....it does for small investors which we need.
Now Interest rates are rising. Pipelines need time. Oil price falling 20%.
Longer term bullish case?
33 year old CEO wants to be more active? What does mean? Water Business or even more businesses of growth.
Dividend? Stock split-to gain more investors to the stock.
Options?
What was the secret sauce that made TPL a very rare opportunity I think has been played out.
Macro play.
Eventually the Fed is going to try and stoke the fire of inflation again. When that happens TPL will be one of the best inflation hedges in the market with no debt.
Analogy of a blockbuster movie.
At some point the attendance has to peak and movie goers won’t want to pay a high multiple to trade their tickets.
Any other opinions?
TPL. Vision into the future? The Front and Back 9 of TPL’s course.
The comment of being more active? The CEO is 33 years old?
Of course he wants to be more active.
Is that good or more risky?
Why not leverage this foundational asset base of royalties into growth?
Could it be when the 3rd Q earnings comes in and TPL goes to 1000 that this new “business model” will be announced along with a 10-1 stock split?
And a new vote by shareholders?
Future Dividends, Inclusion in Indexes. More volume traded. Options approved.
I don’t think this is years away. I think this is ASAP.
*I have no inside knowledge of the company. Only public reports and my vision of this company following it for the last 2 years.
It really comes down to the earnings, it’s growth, and how many times hose earnings we are paying for.
The price of the stock is really meaningless to the extent that it has less demand bc of its “high” price and lack of mutual funds and etfs.
But if it split by 10-1, it’s still the same formula as above.
New price target of 1250-1500.00 based on 20% earnings growth Q/Q.
Obviously if the oil price holds or goes higher and production holds or climbs higher.
The next big catalyst is if they split the stock to get more shares being traded daily and to be included in the S@P 500 along with other mutual funds and ETFs adding positions.
Very few funds or etfs own shares currently.
N.Gas is the only variable that the price has dropped.
If we split the stock with more trading then the options market makers would open option trading on TPL.
I believe in the future those of us who have stayed he course will be getting totality dividend checks of our own co speed to our cost basis will be huge!
Do we know from the Horizon report on July 23rd if all of those buy and sells were a net buy or did hey sell shares?
I’m looking for a 10% increase in earnings for the 2nd quarter. Meaning at least 6.20 a share.
Oil is higher, Production, and how much more than 13 million in rev from the 1st to 2nd quarter for the water business.
The new tax rate of 20% will remain in effect.
While it’s a rumor, we hear talked about, but it would make sense to split the stock.
I wonder if in the future, these sand miners popping up all over the place, wouldn’t we think they would be across TPL’s land.
I agree with the other comment that TPL said to themselves “Why sold we let water companies drill on our land when we can drill the water ourselves and sell it for a higher margin.
Same thinking with the sand maybe.
Thanks for the reply. Follow up. If TPL receives royalty on Aprox half of its acres, what about the other half? 440k acres? My thinking is if acres that were previously thought to not have oil and gas and now do by having a well drilled on “new acres” not currently reviving a royalty? then those acres would be worth more. Example of TPL selling acres in the past Q for 22,000 an acre. Thx.
ETP announces a new pipeline in the Permian. There are so many positives for TPL, we don’t let the share price up or down confirm what we already know.
Question: Over half the land that doesn’t have a royalty, do we know when a “new acre” has a well drilled on it?
Meaning the whole APA finding and whether more of TPL’s land may have an opportunity?
Dividend Increase to 1.05 annually, special Div of 3.05.
Now we have answered the question about the "extra deferred revenue"
Seeing this increase in the Div to me is a positive even though it's not a lot based on a yield basis, but eventually could be. Especially if/when TPL matures and/or changes to a REIT and if the water business takes off.
Deferred Revenue accounting change?
Did I misunderstand the report that TPL was going to reallocate the deferred revenue saved and start accounting for the easement total per quarter again?
Any insight on this? Thx.
Deferred revenue?
I thought TPL was going to change the way they account for Easement revenue and have to update numbers for 2017?
The report mentioned the tax cut affect but nothing on the deferred revenue issue.
Even taking out the Chevron payment last quarter, earnings were less?
Water sales flat?
When the price runs up from 400 last quarter to 550+, we need a better report and growth than this?
Any thoughts?
Thx.
When we speculate on the value longer term for TPL, 10 yrs from now?
It's a script where inflation gets back to normal if not high. 5-10% inflation, 200 dollar oil? bc like the recent report China may slow or stop buying treasures which means the Fed will go from trying to sell their own treasuries to starting QE4 to keep interest rates low. But all of this is inflationary which having land like TPL with all of its revenue sources is the perfect inflation hedge.
TPL crosses 500.00.
My analysis from Nov 28 has come true with a 2.00 increase in earnings from a tax cut to add another 100 points to get to 500.00.
Now the question again is the deferred revenue amount? The answer before given on the reply post was around another 4.00.
Then that puts a new target at 700.00 with oil trending higher and the mkt holding.
Why 700.00?
I think we'll see the revised earnings for 2017 including the tax cut to be around 13.00. X 50 gets you at 650.00.
Add in the water business and trending oil higher gets us to 700.00 soon.
The concern if it goes to high to quick into Jan 30th earnings may be buy the rumor sell the news.
200 day moving average at 356.00
50 day at 419.00.
The inflation trade may be the 2018 story line. If so then oil goes much higher dollar lower and we get to 1000.00 by year end or soon after.
Thx guys. This is the most unique stock and opportunity I've ever seen.
Big day for Cbmg to 18.00. I think it's the positive additions of 2 execs a few months ago along with the opening of a new facility.
And most important is the purchase of 29,000 shares by the CEO as looked at as a floor of risk for investors.
Investors as well look for new opportunities at the beginning of the yr.
The timing of news to come will be the deciding factor if we higher for more speculators to come in like they did 4 1/2 yrs ago with the thinking that cbmg may get bought out like others at the time.
How much in "extra earnings" for the year could the tax cut (retro active?) and the reallocation of deferred revenue add to earnings for the year?
2.00 x 50 PE for another 100 points at least?
Not including present operations of increased water business earnings and oil royalties higher with oil price up 20% so far?
Looks like the next quarter everything being equal in the mkt could be very good?
Tax cut?
With all of the drama in Washington the tax cut may be phased in gradually to 20% to 2022. Not as good as a imd, but as long as it's not reversed bc of changing admin then it's all good.
Currently if that happens it shld add ?? 100 more points to TPL?
We wonder if the Div may be increased bc if the larger net income or if it's all in to buy back more shares?
To keep ev equal it looks like the earnings minus the payment would be around 2.72.
I love reading past articles and insight knowing what the future had brought.
How to learn from this? What did this analyst get wrong? We now have a PE of 60 not 30.
I considered having a website of this type of info of articles and then discussing what went wrong to help with vision in the future, almost like a poker hand.