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NAVB 2.85 Agree the insider buying is a positive signal, and that managment is taking solid steps to restore confidence. Hopefully, JMHO, Montaur steps up as well and puts our money where their mouth is (ref to the CC). Sets the technicals up well for a run at $3.
NAVB OT I have no opinion on Adam Feuerstein one way or another; but twitter, etc. raging this morning after his Street article on NAVB. Interesting debate FWIW. GLTA
NAVB latest short interest report as of 8/31
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/navb/short-interest
HZNP $4.55 up 10+% - high short position relative to float may be some covering IMO.
NAVB OT: IMHO the NAVB pro-forma balance sheet is train wreck...extended overhead for 2-3+ Qtrs, zero milestones, Montaur
coversions just ahead. The damage goes beyond LS, and likely impacting the pipeline development, and potentially 4694 trial funding. Mgmnt has provided little to go on...and until they do...this for me is a trader. Interesting that even TE in their latest comments is doing a 180 from a week ago on these topics. Outstanding shares will increase regradless if by warrants, P-shares, or secondary...and this IMHO factors directly into SP and market value. NAVB is a cash machine for Montaur, and one way or another the only source of real capital is us. On the plus side, this remains a really good company with an even better pipeline - this is really just the begining for them...but bumps in the road for now. After we settle down and get 9/21 options behind us...should remain a great chart trader; and a great buy at these levels for a long term hold if that's a fit. Always lots of good dialog on this board and thanks to everyone who helps make this a great resource for me. BOL all
Appreciate all that very much. This will be/is still a great trader. I've had 19 in/out cycles since a year ago, but gave back much of that. I did average down my blocks in AH that I couldn't exit to 2.60's - will rebuild from there. Honestly I feel bad as well for whoever bought what I did sell into the close. A lot of work ahead for management to re-build confidence here. For me the time-value of money is as important as the potential gain itself. NAVB has plenty left IMO....cheers Tx!
NAVB - IMO this could take 6-9 months to resolve and get the ultimate approval, taking with it many of the other binary events e.g. EMA/Europe. Management is going to have a serious credibility issue IMO. Options expire 9/21, at least until then anyones guess on SP action. Lost 6 months of NAVB gains, and still have a sizable position - but been almost a year since we saw these levels. The delay will eventually bring dilution and balance sheet back into the picture. I am no longer an investor, just a trader with a lot of ground to make up. All JMHO of course.
BOL everyone.
NAVB 2.35 Just averaged down my remaining position that didn't fill before the close. Try to make the best of the situation. Let's hope we see covering and a decent outlook from mgmt. Wasn't able to wait in the Q to get on the call. BOL
NAVB - Key will be the nature of the issue - which hopefully is disclosed in full in the CC. The unknown (right now anyway) is how long of a delay we will see in LS approval. That needs to be assessed after all the facts are out. Mgmnt will be very quick to re-assure that the FDA issue is "under control" - to be candid...not expecting anything else. This will pass, in some respects may make it more volitile for awhile and hence tradable. But credibility is going to take a hit IMO.
NAVB - stopped out again just before close...but not in time for all my position. even got a fill on the way down. sold that right away...but still holding some...will wait for dust to settle at this point. really surprised at this to say the least.
NAVB - went out then back in for me. some of my initial raid bids were missed but was able to adjust in time to reload. BOL!
NAVB - good points Trade. IMO buyout further ahead once 4694 matures, but that's just my impression from Q&A that occured at the annual mtg. Either way, worth way more than current SP. Chart/technicals would support a nice run from current level, still possible bear raid in near future as well. Lots to trade off of. Cardinal should launch very quickly and LS pricing annouced soon. BOL
NAVB - One thing to pay attention to is the labeling details that should be a part of the approval. GLM, etc. Another is any indication of a "post approval" committee review - which may be tied to initial and future labeling. Mgmnt hinted at this a few months ago when discussing the specific FDA group charged with the LS application review. H&N trial results are due very soon as well. IMO the details rather than the headline may drive trading action.
NAVB - Just my guess...but think they'll announce very soon after receipt from FDA. No reason to wait untill after hours unless notice arrives late in the day IMO. BOL!
NAVB - Holding a huge position for me, 36k, most from very low 3's on Knight day. Very difficult to predict SP trading from LS approval, but one way or another I'll be very active on it. GLTA
EXEL 4.95 Just exited here from 4.30. IMO the chart looks very good for a climb higher, just tagging up on first base. Keeping close watch for re-entry soon. Thanks Trade for the chart notes/posts - saves us a lot of work. BOL
NAVB JMHO there are a number of solid drivers ahead here beyond LS approval. Of note is the Cardinal launch, EMA filing and partner, and 4694 trials. IMHO these will appreciate the SP and make for good trade opportunities. Solid results from management and a solid balance sheet, so IMO a limited risk downside.
On the other hand it's JMHO but I think the 10M P-share conversion that destroyed the early summer run was just the beginning. Too many shares in the supply chain can really only come from one source. Couple that with a pump report a few weeks back from a market-maker who cited inaccurate common share counts and warrant dates; and for me that's a sensible explanation.
I do think the LS approval will bring more long-term buyers in and that we could see the upper side of the trading range, but I'm not looking for any more than solid base hits. Plenty of innings left in this game IMHO. BOL Everyone
GALE $1.94 GTC auto-exited at 25% gain the balance of my position. Chart still looks good but lesson for me recently has been to play them safe and not wait for a bad chart to exit.
GALE 1.87 Sold 1/3 position here from 1.55 to lock in gains. Very near resistance, however charting well and will ride the balance with trailing stops.
NAVB P/M Holdings Thanks for linking the full report. First one I've seen that really focuses on the dilution from Platinum. This is a reality that all of us trading NAVB beyond PDUFA should be aware of. IMHO they cover the topic well....however do not appear to reference the warrant expiration dates, or are ignoring them. That aside, IMO the concept of slowly divesting these shares into the market as the LS revenue and company grows is valid. This is a great trading and investing stock, but one look back to July and IMHO be preprared going forward.
NAVB Chart No complaints from me on the charts and seems were knocking on the door of the R/S level just above. Recent trading has been very healthy IMHO. MFI really a stand-out.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NAVB&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p18489509305
NAVB Link back to weekly chart - my way of "filtering out the noise" and making a case for trading with patience and with a plan. Technicals present a good case for some nice gains IMO, with opportunities for both faster and slower trades depending on individual preference.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NAVB&p=W&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p94983707011
The effect of the P/M share conversion really stands out - note they have a considerable amount of P-shares remaining, as well as warrants expiring in Dec., and I am on alert for this in Q4. Solid near-term catalysts in play beyond the 9-10 PDUFA:
1. H&N trial results - sentinal node labeling
2. Europe partner and EMA filing
3. 4694 PH 2 and 3 trials
I really like that they focus on diagnostics rather than theraputics - makes for less risk overall IMO. For now I am respectful of the currently charted trading range until the SP demonstrates otherwise - but this is still one of my best trader stocks over the past year and plan to stay with it long term. BOL everyone.
GALE $1.72 Had this on watch list and established a starter position at $1.55 earlier this week. IMO good chart action and set-up. I am a Stochastics fan and this is showing a strong move from over-sold. Keeping a tight stop just to be safe.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GALE&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p52843257858
NAVB once again, nice job on the chart presentation and much appreciated. I add a 3d and 9d EMA or SMA to my variation - which has now established a cross-over and adds to the bullish presentaion. Not a candle-stick expert, but a slight pull back then strength on volume would set up for a quick move up. I feel like I just got safely to first-base from a relatively low entry on "Knight" day, so on close watch here. BOL everyone
Had a small position bought at 4.65. Had a trailing stop set at 4.85 since I was off to the NAVB meeting yesterday - it tripped right after the open so I got out of Dodge. Charted 4.20ish as support and like the inside ownership, but seems to have lingering revenue concerns. There is a short-term downtrend line that if broken could heal those indicators on the chart as you illustrate. Agree that Vol may be the tell. Would be happy if all we see is a roller for awhile - BOL
HZNP 4.94 Have a small position in from 4.65; still trying to recover from my second degree burns in the recent sell-off. At this point it will take me awhile but chart/technicals looking much better now - momentum swinging up from over-sold readings.
NAVB T2M - I like your chart assessment here. low interest last few days. I would like to see the STO make a first down and cross over the 50yd line...that would give me some comfort. Holding my position here. BOL
NAVB 3.61 Company disclosed in their Q filings last week that Platinum exercised a 10M P-share conversion in July. This would have exceeded the 9.99% ownership blocker and no further notification that the blocker was exceeded was reported; indicating that much or all of those shares were sold into the market IMO. Platinum still holds significant warrants and P-shares; noting 6M warrents expire in December and another 8M early 2013. Plausible explanation for the recent selling pressure and capital raise for the LOC. Annual meeting is tomorrow, will be checking on their share holdings FWIW.
TLON 0.99 Partial text from news wire alert that I recieved below. This was the anticipated "approval" that was in play for many of us IMO.
Talon Therapeutics Inc.'s (TLON) leukemia treatment has been approved by the U.S. Food & Drug Administration to treat adults with a rare type of the cancer. The FDA said it had approved Marqibo, a vincristine sulfate liposome injection, to treat adults with Philadelphia chromosome-negative acute lymphoblastic leukemia...
Marqibo was approved under the FDA's accelerated-approval program, which provides earlier access to promising new drugs while companies conduct additional clinical studies to confirm clinical benefit and safe use. Marqibo also received orphan-product designation by the FDA because it is intended to treat a rare disease or condition.
ECTE Haven't done all the homework yet - but understand that P/M (Same finacing co. as NAVB) has very favorable terms on this deal in terms of warrants, etc. and gets more with every draw. Plan to read this very carefully before considering a position. All IMHO....best of luck...and still like the product very much.
NAVB $3.60 Short selling circut breakers should be in place - may help the SP ease back up. Was lucky to be on-line at the open and picked up several big blocks between 2.95-3.07. If I'm not mistaken the breaker should remain in effect through tomorrow?
Great reminders and thank you...vivid reminder for me on my HZNP position..."Every day you dont sell a position is a day you bought it"...My #1 trading rule - my #2 is remember #1. Paid a big tuition bill for the Continuing Ed class over the past week.
BOL Everyone
Exited NAVB 70% of my remaining positions on stops at 4.04 avg. on the open. Relentless selling I guess all of us off guard. Locked in gains also on TLON 1.74. Will look to re-position both once the dust clears. Unwound last of my HZNP at larger loss than I care to admit, but better upside on others than dead money.
Bothering me a bit on NAVB that no Altropane PR out yet, but who knows after the close. IMO no PR means no license option exercised...we'll see.
BOL everyone
HZNP $5.77 Still holding part of my original position here...bleeding quite a bit. Anyone see upside/some recovery here?
NAVB Manny...I wouldnt be surprised if P-M was selling off large blocks. They are at the ownership limit of 10% and need to unload prior to exercising their warrants, although they have to Jannuary to do that. Rough math - they make/raise $22M at this weeks share prices.
NAVB big block trade yesterday at 5M shares presumed to be a pre-arranged Institutional Average SP sell (IMO) by Montaur-Plat. Clears their books within the 10% ownership limit and they can exercise the Jan-13 warrants w/o exceeding the voting-unrestricted share limit. They still have the 35M+/- shares via convertable prefered shares to keep in the bank. Nice move IMO on the LOC deal keeps everyones shares, including Mont./Plat., from potential dilution in Q4. Could use the first draw to wipe Hercules off the books, we'll see. Expect they will annouce a CC today-Monday so this will be a good listen for NAVB holders, in addition to Altrophane license.
Agree on the chart and good technical set-up for a breakout. Volume rise would confirm set-up. Weekly chart looks great as well. Thanks for posting (and others) with your notations! BOL
NAVB 4.39 Really good looking chart set-up with completed pennant and supporting technicals. Will be watching volume next 1-2 days for confirmation. Positive news on Altrophane due in next 10 days could add some fuel. BOL everyone
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NAVB&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p36880024572
NAVB $4.40 Nice continuation pattern breakout on today's volume over 1M shares. Appears some resistance at 3.54 range, but that could be chewed through quickly with confirmation of the breakout pattern suggesting $5+.
Totally agree with you on HZNP and good chart tells as well. I added today, based on the candles and relationship to the EMA's. time will tell very soon, but the upside is hard to ignore. For those in NAVB (my personal favorite horse), I do see some "lessons" in HZNP for continuing to trade NAVB vs. hold depending on ones own personal strategy. I'll post up more details as time permits over next few days. I'll echo the thoughts of many here that we have many good investors/traders with a single common goal of mutual success, and that $heff deserves continued credit for bringing and keeping us together in that endevor. My sincere thanks to all.