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Not buying into this rally. Pulling out my order for those Mutual Funds. The next couple of weeks should be interesting - looking like lots of negatives for the market.
RLB
GDP 2.2% - growth is anemic!! With a consensus that margins will continue to compress going forward. Unemployment is above 8%. Jobless claims still above consensus for the week. April job growth next week - most agree that we need almost 400K per month to start bringing down the unemployment number. Well, the forcast or expectaction next week is 170,000.
This is a rally? People are buying into this?
Still standing pat, but I maybe putting in money this afternoon. We'll see how the day goes. I'm in the simulator for training from 10-2pm. Market closes at 1pm AZ time. Yikes! Order is put in already at the market close.
Feeling a little nervous here - like we should of just bailed at our cost basis and called it even. At the very least we could got back in at lows that appear to be coming. The Fed looks like they trumped all bad news out there - didn't think the Fed was supposed manipulate markets like that. Sure seems like he wants to keep his job, and that requires the re-election of Obama. Romney has said in no uncertain terms that he would get rid of Bernanke.
I've put in a buy for tomorrow at the close for a couple of mutual funds that are available in Fidelity. 75% Fid Growth and 25% Goldmans Sachs Small-Mid cap. That's putting in the majority of my cash position back into the market. If we do have a short rally to 1425-1450 at least I'll participate in that. Seems like we're juiced again.
As for my positions in TYP, SQQQ, SPXU - I'll hold. There has to be a downturn ahead - and when there is - I'll go back to cash from the mutual funds. Seems like I'm betting against myself!
I believe we're going to hold at this level. With the chart analysis from PerfectStock and what I'm reading from other sources. We'll hit a lower low for the Nasdaq and the OTHER 80% will make us whole and then some for TYP.
Standing pat.
Gee AAPL closed at 610.00 - spooky.
I'll stand pat. The cycle will turn south - agreed. Too much bad news out there. CAT hit the skids.
Did ULT for AAPL break 50 as you were concerned about. Don't mean to take up anymore of your time. Were all really busy!!
Ground school tomorrow, but I'll have my laptop up and running with pda.net off my smart phone. At this point I'm in it for the upturn on TYP!! Might be June.
Safe and sound at home already. Don't even want to look!
Going to stand pat here for a the last three sessions of the week. Let's see if the market backs off with the Fed saying they are not easing anymore. ECB is saying no way to anymore money - read the whole Wall Street on the way home from Indy. If you read all the bad news out there, you'd think there is a correction coming - dispite AAPL. Again, let's see how the market wakes up after the AAPL party. They can't support the whole world ya know!
What is the ULT? Sorry don't know what that metric is.
AAPL up 8% on the DAX this morning. It's early and I'm getting ready to leave for the airport. This is the tough part sometimes.
It's 1:07am AZ time.
Let's see what happens today and tomorrow. Wish us both some luck!
RLB
IBD- Big picture for tomorrow's paper. I have the e-IBD - this was written after posted results for AAPL. Market in correction, but these guys are a little too conservative. Some great ideas, and very disciplined.
While Indexes End Mixed, Leaders' Action Worsens
By VICTOR REKLAITIS, INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY Posted 07:13 PM ET
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The main indexes finished mixed Tuesday, displaying relatively muted action, but many leading stocks took big hits.
The NYSE composite and S&P 500 rose 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively. The Nasdaq lost 0.3%, giving up an early gain of 0.3%.
A 2% slide by Apple (AAPL), which accounts for about 10% of the Nasdaq, weighed on the tech-heavy index. Volume fell from Monday's levels on both main exchanges.
While the indexes traded in narrow ranges compared with recent sessions, it was a different story for stocks that have been leading the market.
Ulta Beauty (ULTA) tumbled 7% in huge turnover, slicing through its 50-day moving average. Volume was the highest and the price loss the greatest since Ulta's January breakout. That's a sell sign.
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), VMware (VMW) and Lululemon Athletica (LULU) also slid under their 50-day lines in convincing trade, losing 3%, 4% and 5%, respectively.
Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) fell 6% in strong volume, selling off in the last hour of trading after the company released its first-quarter results earlier than expected. The restaurant chain slid even though profit beat views . Sales basically matched expectations, and the company backed its 2012 profit guidance.
After bucking Monday's negative trend with a 1% gain in fast turnover, GNC (GNC) dropped 2% in even faster down volume. Under Armour (UA), Herbalife (HLF) and Alexion (ALXN) were also among the leaders that dropped in strong volume.
While Apple fell during the regular session, closing under its 50-day line for the first time since Dec. 19, the stock rallied in after-hours trading after quarterly results crushed estimates.
Also on the upside, winners beat losers on both exchanges, and new 52-week highs outnumbered new lows. However, some stocks that hit highs staged negative reversals, such as GNC and Herbalife.
Economic reports came in mixed Tuesday. New-home purchases fell to 328,000 in March, but beat views. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index slipped for a second straight month in April to 69.2, missing forecasts.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index rose more than expected for February, but on a non-adjusted basis, it fell more than anticipated.
On Wednesday, Fed policymakers will wrap up their two-day monetary meeting. Market watchers expect no change in policy, but will parse the comments for any changes in tone.
As the market correction continues, don't get faked out by rallies in low volume. Note how some recent up days came in below-average turnover, such as April 12 and April 17 (1) on the Nasdaq.
Above-average volume kicked in on down days, such as April 10, and this past Thursday, Friday and Monday. (2) That tells you the environment remains bearish.
With its rebound earlier this month, the Nasdaq took back a little less than half of its decline from the March 27 high before it started falling again — another negative.
Starting with today's print and eIBD editions, The Big Picture column has moved next to the index charts. This makes it possible for the column to note specific points on the charts, as was done above.
In addition, the index charts will show the distribution days, noted with a "D" for distribution or "DS" for stalling, which is also a type of distribution.
That's all encouraging - I'm sure you've tested your TA on other charts on fake trades.
Not extremely concerned on any huge upside for the entire market. All that "fluff" is gone- that was this last run from Nov-March.
Upside should be pretty much capped - 3-4% from here - maybe. And I think that is way streching it - that's 1420 S&P. No reason to be at that level.
Standing pat - let it play out.
Post your drawings - 9.60 is above my 8%! That would work for me.
I have an invite to an IBD stock seminar tomorrow at 7pm in Scottsdale. Probably not going - don't need to cloud my thinking! It's so clear right now!!
Early departure from Indy- I'll be home before the kids go to school. Tired, but home at 7:30am.
Majority of my account is in cash right now. 28% is being hedged with these. TYP, SQQQ and SPXU. Was that it? 4% down from 1419 S&P?
The next couple of weeks should be more telling - hopefully I don't have grit it out at 9.45 or so - that's my 7-8%. The others are more stable - and I'm even on both. TYP is a large exposure - 70K in.
Understand about the bounce and sell off with AAPL. Should give it a day or two and see if the OTHER 80% of TYP moves to the downside! The trend is still lower. My mind wanders a little when I'm not busy - holed up in a hotel in Indy.
Looks like we maybe merging with American Airlines - our company has been in active negotiations on contract terms. I'm thinking I shouldn't be playing around with these types of ETF's/ETN's - over the longer term - 18yrs to retirement - things should work out fine with a conservative approach. This is not a conservative approach!
Delay? I'm considering not being in this APPL-TYP battle. AAPL has the upper hand. Could be right back at $630 - against the grain of the market - TYP is so weighted with AAPL we'll most likely be back at 9.25 tomorrow.
Looking at sticking with my IBD tennent and sell at 7-8% = which is 9.49/9.39. That would stop me out tomorrow.
I know that there is more downside to this market - don't know if I want to go back on the down cycle again in TYP.
SQQQ - is skewed AAPL. I'm in 3800 shares - about even now.
SPXU - 2500 shares - might let it go also.
Just too much exposure at 6900 shares for me with TYP.
Hummmph...that's all I can say.
Well, we hit our cost basis of 10.21 yesterday for the high.
Still standing pat - AAPL after the close today.
Thanks for Perfect Stock Alerts - TA is great as a learning tool. Looks all very bearish short term. I guess we know this.
Able to catch up on the market today - in Indy all day.
New catalyst - French elections. Socialist gaining traction over Sarkozy(sp). Wants to eliminate or rewrite deals made with the EU on budgets/austerity programs.
That was the link I sent. AAPL on Tuesday, that is going to make or break TYP. Tech as a sector has been a little lackluster these past few weeks. Hoping for the double-whammy. AAPL down in a down market.
We'll see.
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000084738&play=1
Tobias Levkovich - this guy make sense to me.
If the link doesn't work - search video on CNBC.
Listen to what he says about French candidate - could win - talking about not letting ECB control what France does. Might rankle Merkle - might create alot of worry.
Thanks for those web-sites. The video lessons and chart summary of the day are nice and brief. Looking back at some of the calls made on their - Alerts - he does get a bunch wrong, buy hey, it's just more knowledge.
Traders getting nervous out there! AAPL keeps pulling back- lets see what happens next week with their earnings. I know it's not all AAPL, but today was a double whammy - market down and AAPL way down.
Margins are compressing, guidance is what people are nervous about.
Last visit at 1340 - TYP was 12.50ish. Nasdaq was 2800? This was Jan. lots of changes in the options in the ETF, so the past might not be a good gauge of what will happen if Nasdaq does 10% from here to 2700.
This is making me rethink the 14 strike. Maybe 12.75 - sell 5K shares. Holding 6900 of this.
Did you draw out 15? Or a hunch?
Had Colin Powell on my flight this morning out of DC - He's not black - he's white!!
RLB
Congratulations on the BABY!
We're obviously done with 3, we're both 47. Wife is at home with the kids - by choice. She had a very successful career in Advertising in Chicago. We moved to PHX in 2004 when I took my upgrade to Captain.
Regarding the charts. I'll look at those sites, thanks. Doing about the same as you - just not using he 60 min charts. Combo of the two TA and Fundamentals - and GUTS!! Been trading 15 plus years with pretty good success. I've been trading these ETF's and ETN's for the last 6 months. Not liking them that much, I did do well with TVIX last month - around all the Credit Suiss problems. Lost 45K with FAZ in Dec-Jan. Which ate up lots of gains that I had from the fall. Working my way back with TYP, SQQQ, and SPXU. Then back to stock picking! I don't like being on the bear side like this, rooting for disaster! Not like me!
Thanks for the exchange. Off to DCA(National -Reagan) tonight for Las Vegas. Red-eye, yuk. But, I'll be there before 7am, I fall asleep watching the market!
That all sounds reasonable, but I don't have the time to look at these charts during the trading day. I fly for a living(Captain Airbus for US Airways formerly America West) and I started a Home Inspection business in Phoenix in 2009 - Right Approach Home Inspection - www.azrightapproach.com
Add 3 kids 13,12 and 7 - Wife and dog. Not in order of importance!! The dog comes first, kidding. Just a little busy at times! Unless of course I have a long layovers, then I have time.
Sounds like you understand these charts better than I.
Still holding till 15, what time frame are you thinking? What events would get it there. Just doing the quick math or upward pressure on this last run up. Doesn't look like TYP would break 12 with the S&P at 1300. What was the low 1355? And we made it to 9.56.
Don't know if we'll make it back to our 10.21 cost basis until mid-May, June. Or when Israel bombs Iran.
RLB
Quite the pop on AAPL - $27+.
IBM, INTC numbers were not great. IBM with guidance that is way high for next quarter - $15 a share - that ought to disappoint in July. I'd rather be out of these bear positions here soon. I was a little concerned about Q1 "surprises", I think we'll go back and forth over the next two weeks. Might sell at one of those drops. This would position me at mostly (95%) cash. I know I'm not going to hit the top or bottom. Maybe start wading in during the summer on big drops.
RLB
It was on CNBC two weeks ago. Don't know if they archived the video.
I will look too. Need to see what else he's sayin!
Well, AAPL hit $643 and start a trend lower from there. DOJ filing didn't help much.
Hope to see 14, not sure if she has the legs for it.
No one knows, not even CS!! Me thinks your thinking about this too deep. If it was easy as seeing a diff in NAV and actual market price - everyone would be rich. Too many variables on this ETN, way too complicated to try and figure out. But, gut feelings - might be the way on this one. Sometimes you have and right and sometimes....not so much.
Next week looks to be just as volatile. Margins are compressing - we had the run for 6 months...looking forward. Now it's time for the market looking forward to May, June and July.
Still check out what you guys are doing every once and awhile.
What did ever happen to Stocksplit - that 15 to 7 drop a few weeks ago was brutal.
I'll be riding TYP, SQQQ and SPXU on this downturn - which IS coming. These past 2 sessions is a bit of false hope I believe.
Hope on QE3, hope on China and hope the EU doesn't melt down with more liquidity. We've tried all that for the past 4 months, I don't think that type of hope is valid anymore. We need a more realistic market. Betting on 1275-1310 S&P. For now ;)
RLB
AAPL slightly down in an UP market. Don't believe that's happened in the past 6 months.
My gut tells me we have more downside coming - might make 1290-1310 S&P, or at least that what I'm still holding out for.
14.20 is still my price point for 5K shares and let 1900 run.
Of the three bears (TYP,SQQQ, and SPXU) SPXU yielded that most upside these past 5 down sessions. Might use that one again in the future as a hedge.
RLB
One analyst last week was talking about $642 being a magic number for AAPL. The share price where Hedge Funds and other Institutional Buyers will begin to sell AAPL. Definitely a thorn is the side of TYP.
How much longer can AAPL go against the grain of the market?
First downgrade yesterday for AAPL.
Still looking like it's a slide towards 1300 on the S&P.
I have my first full day of absorbing news. 24 hour layover in SLC.
RLB
Ugly is a relative term - I was up for the week. Still down, but inched up. Jobs report could be the catalyst we needed, futures are down. I'm sure your watching.
Glad I held off the sale of any of these holdings.
TYP, SQQQ and SPXU
Still feel this could be a good 7-10% correction. Bernanke will probably step in around 9% and have a "new plan" on how to save the economy. Maybe they should just let the whole thing shake out on it's own - housing included.
Still aiming for 14.20, but could see your 15+ happening.
I'm in pretty heavy on these positions, so it doesn't take much to get out with some real dollar profit. Again, not trying to be greedy - probably start trimming at 13.75 and let a "paid for" 1500 shares run to your 15+.
Let's see, should be an interesting week. Earnings are kicking off. Alcoa should be first sign - probably not good.
Margins are compressing - outlooks will be dampened going forward.
RLB
AAPL has been a huge drag on TYP. Don't know the exact percentage, but it has to be large. Once it starts to turn.....
I'm all out around 14.20 Cost basis for me is around the same
10.21. No reason to get greedy!
Then I'll rotate back in to normal plays again.
With my previous post - I was pretty much resolved to getting out of these bear positions. TYP, SPXU and SQQQ. Down around 20K in these 3 amigo's. But to my surprise, market looking a little tippy again.
Standing pat for now. No new positions. Looking for 1310-1305 on the downside.
I've made money on both TVIX and UVXY. Around 17K. Thought I would go back to what made money before.
Majority of my position is cash - around 72%. After a correction, I'll be putting this back to work in spades. Still betting on 1475-1500 S&P sometime this year. Would be nice to have some volatility!! Geeze! I was loving last fall!
RLB
On Monday night I was pretty much going to bag my 6900 shares, but this morning to my surprise - could be the beginning of a turn?
Maybe 1310 S&P?
Still holding SPXU and SQQQ. Fairly large positions- about half of TYP each.
Yes, AAPL - I heard a little stat today - to keep this rate of earnings growth, every man, women and child would have to spend $250 a year on AAPL products. Saying that, only 25% of every man, women and child would have to spend $1000. Possible, but the rate of growth has to slow - and when it does, look out below. AAPL $450.
Are you in TYP?
And what metric is EMA - "E" moving average?
RLB
Getting beat up on my positions in TPY, SQQQ, and SPXU - -18%, -14% and -12% respectively. I believe we're on another leg up in the market. Could hit 1450-1460 S&P, then a leg down in early May. Just a gut feel. We had a little consolidation last week, digested the gains, now a leg up.
Don't think I want to end up 25% down in these. So....thinking od building a large position in TVIX over the next couple of weeks. We could be seeing $5 TVIX, maybe 4.85? But, as the market corrects we could see a 75% gain from these levels. Back toward $10. Again, just gut - that's all.
Thoughts?
Glad to see you guys are getting something back! Worried about a few of you guys loosing it like the Jet Blue Captain!
Still hanging in there with my other ETF's
SQQQ, TPY, SPXU - would like to see 5-7% correction. Then cycle back into my normal positions that I've sold off this past month.
EMC, ARUN, INTC, BAC, PHM - these worked really well from Dec. lows, but sold it off along with my staples GE, COP, F, JPM, MOS -
Don't think I have the balls to try the BULL 3X, or 2X juiced ETN's or ETF's
I post here because the other holdings I have- nobody to bounce ideas off of. No posts on the others.
Still hanging in there, might add more to my position tomorrow if we're still up on the market. If we're down a little - probably still add some - 1K shares. Getting a bit heavy here with 6K shares. But, TPY seems to me to have the most upside in a correction. We need AAPL to loose 8%!! or 10%!!
Other holdings - Bear
SPXU - 3K shares
SQQQ - 4K
TPY - 6K
Long spot on TVIX on CNBC - buyer beware. There was/is a disconnect with the whole premise of the instrument. Like I said before - 98% of individuals(including me) trading this ETN do not understand fully what is happening behind the scenes.
I highly doubt I will ever revisit TVIX or any other Derivitive ETN. Lucky I made it out in one piece. Started on 2/7 with 5K shares and sold 4K shares to cover the cost, plus a little. Lucky I got a phone call to wake me up on Wednesday in Seattle! Sold out at 12.85.
Good luck out there. Get rich quick - has lots of pitfalls - careful.
Out of the last 1K @ 12.85.
There were a few articles that indicated that TVIX was trading at a 18% premium to NAV. The articles did mention the gap closing.
Did CS re-open the creation of shares?
Some of the articles were a negative for TVIX holders.
Just sayin'
Good Luck out there! I'll look at the posts every once and a while to see if anyone is getting anywhere with a Class Action, but that is one steep hill to climb!
New to trading these ETN's and ETF's - based on my experience for the past 15years trading/investing common stocks. Reverse spilts usually don't work out that well.
These are souped up, complex trading instruments - 98% of the people(including me) don't really understand to a full extent of what is really going on behind the scenes.
I've been in TVIX too long as it is. Just waiting for a pop and I'm out. Cost basis is $0.00
I've built up a 3,800 share position on SPXU at 9.70 cost basis. Down around 7% at this point - getting close to hitting the eject button. Just seems like we're at the top of the trading range on the S&P, but I've been saying that for the past 2 months! Waiting, waiting for 5% correction. Looks like we are consolidating again - creating another base - which could be another leg up. At that point I'll have to eat the loss.
We need a jobs report to the negative, a report that shows that energy is becoming a drag on the economy, a report that Europe is have a negative effect as they slide into slow, or negative growth, etc....any of these will do.
Fed-Ex report tomorrow - if it's good, another leg up I'm afraid. Don't get me wrong, I'd like to see things get better - I've just been on the other side of the bet for a while now. Getting a bit old. When I bail out of these - SPXU, SQQQ, TYP - the market will go down!
All I can say is I feel lucky as hell that I eeked out .35 on 5K shares. Sold on the 200pt. down day, it made it up to 6.23 that day, sold @ 6.10. This was two days before the Reverse(perverse) split - 6 for 1. Thought about holding some, but thankfully I sold it all. Has dropped from 33.60 to whatever it is now, 23?
For the most part - I have never seen a RS go up. Always a bad sign. Now splits, that's a heck of alot of fun!!
Still holding TVIX - free and clear.
SQQQ, TYP, SPXU are my holdings for a 5% correction. Trim on the way up. And sell it all if we make it to 1300 on S&P.
Let's see.
Anyone trading TYP? It's now one of my largest holdings at 6K shares. Am I just on my own flyer here?
So, according to the article - TVIX should be trading around 12.50.
Hmmm..any takers on that one?
I'm with the group think - TVIX is being used as a hedge to protect gains made in the past few months. So it's being bid up.
Are in the beginning of the wave? I believe so - will it make it up to the low 20's - me thinks S&P below 1325 and TVIX is up around 23.
Anyone else playing TYP? I've been loading up over the past 5 sessions after the 200pt. drop. In 6K shares around 10.05 cost basis.
still holding TVIX from Feb. 7th. Watched it drop like everyone else. Only difference it's all profit from our last run to 21.
Bought 5K and sold 4K to cover the cost. 1K left.
Small position SQQQ - 3K shares
and SPXU - 2K shares.
Now only if AAPL would take a DUMP!!! Some said it was the kiss of death to hit $500! When it blew through that they stopped talking.