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Here are the details of my carry trade strategy upgrade, just in time for Valentine's Day!
Carry Trade Details and a Forex Valentine
Posted:Mon, 08 Feb 2016 09:42:11 +0000
Greetings! As Valentines Day draws near, it’s time once again for me to send those roses, to write that drippy love-sick poem, and to make reservations for a nice romantic candlelit dinner....
And here's the last post for today. After this I'm all caught up, so I'll just hold off until I write the next article. Anyway, hopefully these articles will jump start some discussion over here on iHub!
I interrupt my recent rants on economics and Forex fundamental analysis to concentrate on an upgrade of my carry trade strategy. The next post will go into more detail about this.
Carry Trading Overhaul
Posted:Wed, 03 Feb 2016 18:52:05 +0000
Greetings all! I’ve interrupted my recent rants (ahem!), I mean my recent series of posts on economics for a week or so in order to concentrate on upgrading my carry trade strategy. This is...
Continuing on the theme from the last post, I use the Fed's recent actions as an example of how messy real-world considerations affect the more quantifiable worlds of economic and Forex market analysis. But take heart! Those messy factors aren't as opaque and resistant to analysis as some may think...
Silliness at the Fed?
Posted:Fri, 29 Jan 2016 07:42:40 +0000
A few days ago, I wrote about how it’s important to take the messy real world into consideration when conducting fundamental analysis of the markets. I’m talking about the world beyond...
This is a post about the drivers of the big rout in the global equity markets at the beginning of 2016. The point is that fundamental analysis isn't as bad an approach as some make it out to be.
Oil and China and Feds, Oh My!
Posted:Wed, 27 Jan 2016 06:53:58 +0000
Greetings all! Since I’ve long been an advocate of the often maligned approach of fundamental analysis, I thought I’d use the recent market volatility to illustrate at least part of my...
Here's my take on the decline in oil prices, along with some thoughts of how analysts think about "the economy" (which I submit, doesn't actually exist):
Sliding Oil Prices – Good or Bad?
Posted:Mon, 18 Jan 2016 08:11:39 +0000
Greetings all! I was tuned into Larry Kudlow’s radio show on Saturday night, and of course he and his guests got around to the topic of why the current stock market selloff is happening. One of...
I haven't seen a lot of activity from the old regulars on this board lately. I've been doing some writing about economics, trading, and the Forex markets among other things on my own blog, so in an attempt to revitalize the discussion here on iHub, I'll start posting links to those posts here on the Forex board. At least until someone else comes along and objects, lol.
The links and brief text snippets are posted the way they appear on my FeedBurner RSS feed.
So here's a bit of a rant I posted a couple of weeks ago on the so-called Guaranteed Basic Income proposal:
Guaranteed Basic Income and the Gilligan Test
Posted:Fri, 15 Jan 2016 07:28:49 +0000
Greetings all! So I was listening to NPR’s On Point earlier tonight, and Tom Ashbrook had a group of guests debating the pros and cons of a national guaranteed basic income. The idea is simply...
Yes, the win rate should vary inversely with the ratio of TP distance to SL distance. For an 80% win rate, that ratio would have to be greater than 0.25 for a positive expectancy.
Sounds like you're off to a good start. Keep us posted!
Cappy New Year, Forex traders!!
Hmm? Who woke me up?
Yep, this was on the front page of the WSJ this morning as well.
Interestingly, this Reuters article twice uses the phrase "trying to manipulate foreign exchange rates," which makes me wonder how much success they actually had in moving the rates.
I mean, even the biggest banks have masters; they've gotta meet the supply and demand needs of their clients, who are exchanging currencies in order to facilitate massive international trade flows. If everyone suddenly loves Japanese cars, the yen's going up, no matter how much the banks try to manipulate things. Even the Titanic couldn't change the tides.
If they DID manage to move rates around, I hope a few of these fired traders end up writing books or something. I'd love to know the specific dynamics and history of what they were doing, and what it looked like on the charts at the time.
Anyway, that's my two pips. Thanks for the link!
Only 50,000% ??? Pfft...amateurs.
And YOU'RE late to the bot welcoming party! :-P Bots are people too, ya know... errm, sort of, in a way.
Well, spammers are people too ya know!! :-P
Greetings! The iHub FOREX board isn't all that active these days, but nice to see you. :)
Hmmm...interesting.
Just finished my weekend analysis. Indicated directions of eight currencies continue to conform to my existing four positions:
Long USD/CHF
Long GBP/CAD
Short EUR/JPY
Short AUD/NZD
However, fundamental picture of USD and EUR have shifted radically over the past several weeks. At any rate, I'm not placing any new trades this weekend; just sticking with the existing ones.
Nothing says, "Your edge is keen!"
like four positions in the green...
That EUR/JPY short triggered. It's about 0.5R in profit at the moment. This is an intermediate-term method, so I only enter trades once a week and check them once a day. So that'll be about it until next Sunday unless one of my open trades hits its trailing stop.
Entered a limit order to short EUR/JPY at 135.28 with a stop at 136.48. Should trigger when the Asian session starts for the week.
Other existing positions are:
Short AUD/NZD
Long GBP/CAD
Long USD/CHF
So far this year, my account is up by 60%, but that's partly due to some luck involving position sizing issues. Based on a small dataset of 10 trades so far, my new method has an expectancy of 27.5% Wow...I'm sure that's not realistic, so we'll see how it goes over the remainder of the year. Details on all this are in this post on my blog.
Cheers!
You're already on their radar. :)
They're watching everything, including this board.
(Waves to the NSA...) Hi guys!!
This net neutrality nonsense is clearly a power grab, disguised (as usual) as some kind of "consumer protection" from the big mean corporations or whatever. People forget that without those big mean corporations, we wouldn't have an internet, or a comfy home, or a nice car, or shoes, or yummy food, or... ... ....
I, for one, was happy to sign.
Well they are dumping dollars as well as other currencies, but I don't think it's by choice. Their foreign reserves have dropped by over 20% in a year to below $400 billion. It looks like they're straining to meet their trade obligations. They're buying gold too, but not much relative to their spending of reserves.
http://cbr.ru/eng/hd_base/default.aspx?Prtid=mrrf_m
I'll second that. I also think this oil drop is aimed right at Putin, with the hit to frackers as icing on the cake.
However, I also think that economics will take its natural course, which will be that the fracking industry will be incentivized to improve their technology and lower their costs, thus keeping oil prices down over the long term, even after the geopolitical wrangling is over.
I've switched over to swing trading using weekly charts for entry signals and 3-hour charts for trade management. Did some interesting statistical analysis involving tic volume along with bar patterns that I'll publish eventually on my blog. Closed the first couple of trades with profit, and still have a few open, so we'll see how it goes.
Yes, languages with the same paradigm (like object oriented, etc.) are all pretty similar. It just takes a while to get used to the different syntax and various idiosyncrasies. I can usually learn a new one in a few days if I need to.
After my last job though, I'm not a fan of programming for other people lol. Requirements are never specific, and keep changing, etc. And I could never run a business like you do where I'd have to deal with customers.
That's why writing and trading are perfect...if I can ever get them to start paying off.
Nice site! Great design, and it sounds like a fun business too.
I see you have quotes for BitCoin and LiteCoin up there. I'm a huge fan of the whole public blockchain concept for transactions, including the most well know application of cryptocurrencies.
The site is .NET you say. My old company was thinking of moving to that when I left, and I think they hired a .NET developer. I've never worked with it at all though.
Nice. Next up, WWIII, news at 11.
We used the Google App Engine as the platform for all of our internal web apps, and I wrote the backend code in Python, although I did some front end Javascript, HTML, CSS, etc. as well. What's the business site?
I got rid of Market-Geeks.com and created a WordPress site instead, which still hosts all of my research notes,etc. But now I have all the cool features of a full blogging site without having to do all the work to maintain it, lol. The new site is capitalisttrader.com. You can even see a pic of me in a hat! :D :D
As far as firing up the FOREX platform, I've become a big fan of longer-term "set & forget" type trades over the past few years. I can't remember the last time I actually sat there and watched the candles develop. It's a lot less stressful, so maybe that's a good fit for you too, with all the stuff you're juggling.
Yep! Still doing the statistical analysis stuff, constantly searching for a better edge.
Spent 4 years in a doomed carry trade; short the dollar against high yield emerging currencies, but the interest income didn't cover the constant position losses so I finally bailed on that one. Now I'm just developing a swing trade strategy for the remainder of my account.
Left my job as a software developer about a year ago. They changed management and it wasn't working out. Now I'm just delivering papers to pay the bills while I work on trading strategies and an e-book on a time-saving FOREX fundamental analysis tool.
Good to see your smiling pixels back on the Hub! It's been pretty slow here on this board. I popped back in a couple of weeks ago because I noticed that a certain cAt had visited my new website, lol.
Whhyyy you young whippersnapperrrr!! Better be careful we don't bonk you with our canes!! :D :D :D How've you been?
Long USD/JPY for me yesterday.
Currently just looking for at least 3 weekly bars above/below the 55 week SMA and a bar that closes in the top/bottom 25%. Entering on the next bar if it breaks high/low. Trailing stop and adding at 1R, 2R etc.
Based on a simple setup/signal that MetaStock described on its YouTube channel. Combined it with some TA research of my own and a longstanding FA system.
ooooo interesting! I'll watch this space for that then.
I'm currently reworking my FOREX trading plan too. Dumped the short dollar carry trade finally after four years of good interest income but bad losses on the positions. Now I'll just consider carry direction as one factor in shorter term positions. Going with the basic price action at S/R approach now and been having some success.
The first e-book is still a work in progress too lol. The first one will be the hardest I imagine, but I hope to create a little series of them.
Good thinking! Remember how I used to write about gold and how it wasn't really the greatest thing for a real collapse because it's heavy, gotta store it, etc. The thing to have is survival and rebuilding skills.
Wow! He sounds like a trooper to keep going for 23 miles on a flat.
I'm a fan of trains as well. Used to love taking the commuter rail from Boston when I lived up there. Never had the full blown long trip experience on a nice decked out train though.
I'm hanging in there. Just working to get the bills paid and working on some writing. I lived for a month just writing articles for The Motley Fool on the energy industry for $50 each, but it's hard to pump out a newly researched piece every day. My latest project is an e-book on a quick way to incorporate FA into FOREX trading.
Well I just saw this today, lol. So how did he do?? "Enquiring" Caps wanna know!!
Great! Glad you liked it.
I built that blog site earlier in the year when I had a lot of time on my hands, but never really tried to get the word out about it. I'm surprised you found it!
Guess I'd better get back to working on it and keeping it updated. It's still a work in progress.
Good to see you too! Still out there trucking? Is the old gang still hanging out here on the board?