retired
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Is the chatroom working?
I actually repositioned in a RIMM straddle before earnings. I had the 75puts and 80 calls, with twice the weight on the puts. Unfortunately RIMM made like Jason and kept coming back so I actually lost on the straddle which I exasperatingly closed on Thursday. Rimm has cost me dearly the last coupla weeks. Thank God for CME. :)
Closed my NTMD for a healthy 1.5 points gain. Hope it rallies so I can reshort it.
Well, NTMD is currently halted. Normally it would have been sell on the news. I am sweating a little, wondering the reason for the halt. Would another company, in their right mind, buy out a co. that possesses a product that was the result of combining two old generics??
I have closed both RIMM puts and call bull spread for a loss. Patent issues have elevated RIMM shares but earnings are still a question mark. I've decided its best to step aside.
RIMM earnings on June 29th, after the close. Expect declining subscription that could drop it 10 pts or more. Got a straddle of 75/80 calls bull spread and 70 puts. Twice number of puts vs. calls. Expect premiums to rise as we near the date.
I shorted NTMD premkt at 20.40. Took 1/2 profits. Any chance of "good" news over the wkend to derail my short, DC, JKool?
Thx DC and BB. Looks like BIBIL as attained approval. Will see if theres much of a spike in the am.
DC, has NTMD's BIDIL been approved or is this all preliminary noise?
Thanx JJKool. And thanx for posting your trades. They are very helpful.
Icono and DC, thank you! I was hoping it would drop to 48 but when it stood steadfast at 48.75 I dumped the puts for $1.50, a net gain of $.67 per option. Better than losing :)
Maybe all is not lost with QSII :)
DC, I think NTMD is shortablet AFTER approval. BIBIL is merely a combo of 2 existing generic meds and has recognized efficacy only in African Americans. My 2 cents.
QSII bested me! eom
Got a total of 5 QSII June 50 puts for $.83 each. See if they amount to anything
YW, still trying to get more of those puts!
Update: QSII just announced results will be released after the close on June 13th. June puts still in play!
Icono, its just that QSII has had such a huge run and trades at such a huge multiple, about 47. The big drop recently happened on relatively huge volume, compared to similar drops in the past. I just feel it has been priced beyond perfection and that beyond a tripling of profits, it wont survive earnings. However, I have just found out QSII may not report till some time between June 13th and 23rd, which would put it beyond June expiration. Looks like I will have to ditch those 2 June puts I bot and get some July ones if I want to play. This bearish stance is purely speculative and based on intuition and past experience. Please dont risk $ you can't afford to lose :).
was only able to get 2 QSII June 50 puts for 0.50. will try for more tomorrow
Think QSII had an initial surge to above 56 but then settled back. These puts arent so cheap anymore. Still trying to get some at .30, may even .40 towards eod.
QSII June 50 puts bidding at .10. Lottery folks!
QSII apparently practices "aggressive accounting". Upper mgmt own less than 100k shares. Perhaps a speculative put position might not be a bad idea, ie, if you can get the 50puts dirt cheap. From the yahoo board:
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=4687052&tid=qsii&sid=468...
I quote from the April PJC research report:
"QSII recognizes license fees upon delivery of the software. The result OF SUCH AGGRESSIVE ACCOUNTING IS A COMPANY THAT IS DEPENDENT EACH QUARTER ON SALES AND BOOKINGS."
They go on to say, "QSIIs upper management owns less than 100K shares in the company."
PJC has a 2006 target of $49 and says the stock trades at a 50% premium to their peer group.
Zachs says, "The company recognizes revenues immediately upon a contract signing. This limits visibility on the company's outlook... The market for healthcare IT services is intensely competitive. Several of QSIIs competitors have significantly greater name recognition, as well as greater financial, technical, product development, and marketing resources. This competition can limit revenue growth. In particular, this competition may result in price or market share erosion."
Their year end target is $52.
rgds
Correction, QSII looks to report either tomorrow or sometime later but definitely not today.
NP DC. Sorry I dont have private msg priveleges. At this point the 55 calls are way too expensive. Think I will just watch.
DC, Briefing.com says QSII to report today. What you think of the risk reward in playing a straddle, 55 calls and 50 puts? I am leaning to overweighing in puts.
As much overbot this market is, do remember we are approaching month end. It is likely to stay buoyant. One particularly good percentage play is to go long at the close on the next to last trading day of the month (This would be Friday because Monday is a holiday) and sell by the 4th trading day of the new month which would be the following Friday. Good luck all.
Sorry, chatters to server "othernet", room #Gemmers
chatters to MIRC under #Gemmers
Looks like chatroom down as we near the close
Mr. Cash, April QQQ puts expire today. Do you mean May puts?
IB working! eom
Sorry to hear Lee. Maybe we can launch a class action against IB. :)
No, I have never had trouble with signing into IB since registering in December. I had no problem yesterday. This was the lst time. Worse comes to worse we can use the web-based version.
Lee, I have the same problem. IB must be broken. Glad I dont have any open positions.
BB, very sorry to hear of Tess' condition. The chatroom has wondered about her progress. Our thoughts are with you and Tess. We wish her a speedy recovery.
Mr. Winlosedraw, how do you hedge your YM option shorts? especially overnite. Do you place a sell stop order on YM in case, heaven forbid, a geopolitical catastrophy is unleased on the world? TIA
These are very bullish candles on the SPX and are reminescent of those emerging from the October 2004 bottom. For almost a month, the SPX never looked back, culminating in a point gain of 95 points before the lst serious setback in the 2nd week of November. I agree with Mr. Cash that the pullbacks forthcoming Monday and Tuesday are big buying ops!
I read with interest that Mr. Wolanchuk of the famed newsletter postulates that the Wednesday before week of expiration is often a down day because hedge fund managers and other big players often roll over options on this day. The mkt proceeds to shoot back up rest of the week. Therefore, in that light, today's action maybe less malignant than it seems. As well, I notice from reading many boards that sentiment has suddenly gotten very bearish with many standing to the side as they fear a more precipitous drop ahead. To me that seems a very good contrary indicatior.
MIRC is a chat vehicle. To download the software:
http://www.mirc.com/get.html
Its essentially free
Join me in MIRC, Othernet server, room "Gemmers" if you can