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Resverlogix, Canadian Small Cap biotech in Phase 3.....
News today about a peer reviewed article in the American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, published by the American Thoracic Society.
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/resverlogix-announces-publication-apabetalone-high-123000424.html
USD market cap is over $650 million USD after today's trading, ~200 million shares outstanding, but most insider held....trading is extremely light. Currently no US listing, its a Calgary based company that trades on Canada's big board TSX. With no listing in the states it currently trades OTC in the US with the symbol RVXCF.
The company has disclosed working with Paris based Rothschild & Co on efforts to secure a Nasdaq listing, but not expecting anything on that front until top-line results from their Phase 3 trial BETonMACE are released.
Company is poorly financed with an outstanding loan coming due in August...the drug is Apabetalone and it has shown potential in a number of indications including Diabetes, Kidney Disease and Alzheimers...the current trial is for Diabetics at high risk of a Major Adverse Cardiac Event as well as having low HDL. There are subsets of patients suffering from Kidney Disease as well as Cognitive impairment....
Risky as....but if they hit their end points imo this is heading to a MCap in the billions, $5 billion+ USD would not surprise me....
Questions and "Bashing" welcome...it is high risk.
I decided to ride it out for more...
Its all on me of course...but I pulled my sell order at 7.5 cents, going to sit back and wait and see, I think you're right and that the market can support a PPS of 10+ cents here...assuming we get there I'll take some money off the table at that point...I also see the potential for 20+ cents depending on the news/results.
6.5 CDN cents, climbing the ladder...a new 52 week high
I posted over on SH....tossed another shot across the bow, and it did what I was hoping and expecting. Dark pools have muddy waters...and that is where the big fish swim. Nice to see tiny and seemingly insignificant Cub Energy in those waters.
Good luck, I hope losses start dropping.....
Going to be interesting, lots of questions no doubt...hopefully some answers.
Volume will tell the tale I believe....
Not long to wait, I'm half expecting a pop at the open....then after the buyers are done, SMACK....that it could be stepped on and pushed back down.
a substantial upside from the current share price
Ya think? That last sentence is like saying "-40 is cold". I will be very surprised if we don't get a run today, with yesterday's PR on the loan and now this....
Third Eye has to be thrilled....
According to the May 1 2018 PR about advancing the closing documentation on the loan they were to receive 3,500,000 warrants priced at $1.30...at $4.00 those warrants are in the money to the tune of $2.70...that over $9.4 million right there, on top of the fees and interest payments. And if Apabetalone proves that it does everything this trial is hoping to prove it does...I would not be surprised if Resverlogix's MCap got up around $5 billion, which would be more than an 8 fold increase on the current MCap of around $600 million USD.
Looking forward to the trading tomorrow....g'night.
And the news is, loan extended 3 months....
Not bad, and the minimum cash requirement is lowered to $3 million. Sweet.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/resverlogix-announces-3-month-loan-211232907.html
Back to watching the paint dry....
They PR'd the loan last year on May 7th, and the term was 12 months....so by next week I'm thinking they have to put out some news of some sort. Announce that it's been paid off, renegotiated...extended, whatever.
Why do I get the feeling May 8th is going to come and we won't have heard anything?
True enough, its a risk either way you go....
My market mantra is: Nobody ever went broke taking profits...I could do it right now, but I'm holding out, and I'll have plenty left after putting a few K in my jeans if it happens.
Bingo Presto, another new 52 week high....
Want to see volume hit 10 million+ in a day here eventually...been waiting a long time.
Some of those .075 shares on the ask are mine....
Not averse to putting some $$$ in my pocket...
Seeing the lowest ask at .06 now....
.06 cents would be a new 52 week high....if it happens it'll happens when it happens, that's all that's happening.
Coverage, today's date:
https://www.streetwisereports.com/article/2019/05/01/pivotal-topline-up-next-for-biotechs-phase-3-cardiac-clinical-trial.html
Read the disclaiming statement about Roth at the end....I think that might be an indication of an eventual US listing, hopefully Nasdaq.
Once again you're preaching to the choir
Fundamentals aside I think KUB.V is being accumulated by some smart and deep pocketed players....and that is why I believe its hovering around this 5 cent level right now with fairly decent volume.
If buyers just kept gobbling up shares and started pushing the PPS to 6 then 7 and 8, then KUB would start attracting interest and the number of shares available at 5/6 cents would dry up very fast imo.
Instead I suspect that the big money types buying....I think after their buying pushes the PPS up to 5.5 or 6, then they go short to drop the PPS a bit and hopefully shake free as much as possible.
Am I right? I'll never know But if KUB eventually climbs to 15 or 20 cents (or more) I won't care.
We're playing the waiting game....
Every time we've gotten a run I wonder "is this the one that leads to the PPS finally taking off" and so far I've always been disappointed. Bottom line is that nobody ever went broke from taking profits.
ALEF on the TSX Buy-In Report for today....
For delivery failures, aka naked short selling...although not a large number, just 80K
ftp://ftp.cdnx.com/TSXBuyInReports
Can anyone post the trades that took place around 3pm?
Volume grinding to almost nothing....
Yeah I know its early...but one or three thousand or so trading on each of the TSX and OTC, that says to me that shareholders are squeezing their shares incredibly tight.
I used to have some doubt that perhaps light volume was indicative of a lack of interest, but that doubt has been eliminated in my mind....I'm more convinced than ever that there is plenty of buy side interest, its simply a question of liquidity, or rather a lack of liquidity.
Short interest here is basically nothing....not even 1% of the 200 million OS. One key benefit to short selling is that it improves liquidity, but it seems bears are afraid to short RVX/RVXCF.
I wasn't around for the Assure trial failure....
But of course I looked at the chart and saw what happened. I just drew up the chart from that specific period in June/July 2013. The PPS had climbed up around $3 and then the results came out and the bottom fell out....all the way under $0.25....less than a Canadian quarter.
I started my DD on RVX after this black swan event....and what stood out to me was what happened almost immediately following this precipitous drop. Two days after the fall under 25 cents the PPS shot back up to about $1.00, more than a four fold increase. It didn't stay there of course...but if it had been a so called "dead cat" bounce it would have gone back under a quarter and then kept falling.
It didn't take RVX long to establish a base in and around 75 cents or so....and I formed the opinion that RVX was being accumulated by smart money types. The way I see things the trial failure caused the sheep to jump ship, but there were enough buyers willing to take their shares from them that the PPS found decent support in a very short period of time.
Now of course we're at a similar such point....so I can understand the apprehension some might be having, I have it too. Even though I didn't experience that bad news event, I know what they feel like....a punch to the gut. And history can repeat.....
Could something similiar happen? Could the company report a miss on the primary, but still achieve success down the road from the secondary end points?
If they report missing the primary I have little doubt that there would be deep pocketed players ready to hammer the PPS by borrowing and dumping a ton of shares...that's my opinion.
I still haven't worked out all my thoughts on this....I'm hoping in the 2 months or so we have left until Top-Line results come out....I'm hoping we're up around $10....that'll make decisions easier and if it happens I'll likely hedge.
As my late great Mother used to say.....
Too bad I can't type with a Forest Gump voice....Momma used to say: "You gotta be good to be lucky, and lucky to be good". Of course given the choice between being good or lucky, I'll take luck.
Looking at everything....the chart, the news, the chatter....I'm having that uncomfortable feelings that things look and feel almost too good to be true.
Its just a feeling I get from time to time....I think its fairly common about all manner of things, where everything is amazing and in the back of your mind there's that annoying little voice saying: "Well...you know this isn't going to last so enjoy it while you can".
Looks to me like a runway to 2 to 3 years.....
If the biz is well managed I don't see an issue with turning a profit, but I still think there is going to be more consolidation in the year ahead...seeing Aleafia acquired would not surprise me at all, I'd be more suprised if they were the one doing the acquiring.
I've held tight through the spike....
No worries for those who've sold some or all, nobody has ever gone broke from taking profits, they won.
Schadenfreude is a word that means taking malicious enjoyment from another's misfortune, and I have to admit I've been guilty of it from time to time. And if RVX/RVXCF takes off next week before some who took profits with the idea of getting back in cheaper....if it takes off again and leaves them chasing, then I'll be guilty of it again.
But if it does continue to drift lower I won't be suprised, nor will I begrudge those with the stones to play the tips and dips....or even those who simply take their profits and leave the table.
The market game is anything but easy.
The bid has been pretty thin on this climb...
I notice that when I check the bid/ask the number of lots on the bid size is typically quite small, often less than 10 lots bidding, while on the ask its typicalling much larger, two, three...even four hundred or more isn't unusual.
I suspect that there may very well be some iceberg orders on the bid side, with only a small number of lots as the visible portion, with hundreds more hidden out of sight.
If someone (or someones) is accumulating it makes sense.....putting up a large visible bid could conceivably attract attention and increase competition for what could very well be a limited number of shares that are being sold. Conversely the large number of lots on the ask, they could be a bluff.
Its all tea leaves, but its fun.
That is a weird one.....
I'm in Canada as well, and I've bought and sold more than a few TSX-V stocks over the years, and I've never been filled with the pink symbol...ultimately a share is a share is a share no matter what exchange or platform it trades over, or in what currency, but still that is strange.
The other day, for proverbial sheets and giggles, I put in a market order to buy a piddly 2,500 shares when the ask was at 5 cents. A shot across the bow so to speak to see how the market would react. It did fill of course, but when I checked the trading on stockwatch it showed 2 partials on two of the secondary dark pool exchanges.
I like that....dark pools and muddy waters, that's where the big fish swim.
Johny, I think its just you and me at this point....
I will say its nice to some posting on here for a change....how long between your first post and my last? So much lag.....nothing being done at this point to bring eyes onto KUB.V that I can see, hopefully that comes and after the PPS has seen a nice climb...10 to 15 cents would make me very happy, then let it run to get the sheep excited.
Here's hoping, the sooner the better.....
Based on fundamentals I have thought that a PPS of at least a dime or so was realistic, that's why I've been holding this bag for 2+ years now and am loaded. Its not heavy, at 4 cents or so I could walk away pretty much whole, but if KUB gets put in play I can easily see it trading for 20 cents or more....
I don't believe this is an end, just the start.....
RVX was stuck in a range for a long time, trading in and around $3.30 CDN....and now its up around $4 after reaching as high as $4.50, on volume that has been much more robust than the usual thin trading.
Today's pull back was on volume much lower than what we saw Monday and Tuesday, so I'm putting this down to consolidation....I'm expecting more positive movement in the PPS, much more. If I'm right how long might this period last? I don't know the answer to that question, but I'm not sweating it, I think we'll see more exciting gains before top-line results are announced. Then everything imo is riding on whether or not those results are positive or negative.
I've been waiting on this one a long time...
A couple years anyway....do you think its ever gonna be put seriously in play?
sunwin posted a court filing....
Its a declaration by Vuzix CEO Paul Travers, here's a more simple link:
https://www.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.nysd.508848/gov.uscourts.nysd.508848.35.0.pdf
This is getting interesting, time to get out the popcorn. Who's going to win? At this stage both Vuzix and Pearson are losing as I see it, with the only winners being the lawyers...legal fees have to be $300 or $400 per hour, and maybe more.
Vuzix is losing imo because the PPS is less than $3 and based on the most recent SEC filings their cash level was only about $17 million at EOY 2018. If they're continuing to lose money at a rate of about $5 million every 3 months as they have been, then they're down to somewhere around $10 million or so left I would estimate. Given the history of staying in biz by raising money via share issueances....well.
Pearson is losing because defending this action has to be costing him a lot of money...and if he ends up losing in the end....I wonder if the guy even has $80 million, I doubt it.
I'm wondering the same thing.....
I'm also wondering if maybe this is related to something else...like an uplisting to the Naz, or a licensing deal, or a financing arrangement of some kind, or some big media coverage that's coming....
If there is a rumour making the rounds though I'm not seeing anything anywhere. I've seen more than my fair share of Pump N' Dumps and often there's some hyped up rumours on a big move like RVX/RVXCF has been seeing the past 3 days...."Buyout coming", "News of a deal coming any time now"....that kind of stuff.
So is there some big news coming? Are shorts being squeezed? Is it simply accumulation in anticipation of good/great trial results?
Whatever the reason its long overdue imo....5+ years is a long wait, but its been worth it so far.
The word of the day seems to be 'Shhhhhh'
A 50+ cent jump in Canada, almost 50 american cents for RVXCF and all the boards are silent...excepting your's truly of course, but then I never have been much of a team player.
I'm going to be blunt, I think its intentional....
Hepalink is constantly stepping up and providing the funding neeeded...so perhaps the company doesn't really care about how things look to the great unwsashed.
Picture it like a kid with a rich Dad.....who cares what others think, Daddy always comes through with the green no matter what. Besides, if the company did a better job at communicating with the market, then it might be reasonable to expect that HL would be paying more than the $3 they've been paying of late per unit for the subscriptions they've been buying.
Its one thing to put lipstick on a pig....you see it all the time with speculative stocks, hyping 'transformative potential' and other hyperbole laced statements to put things in the best possible light.
Resverlogix by contrast, I would submit that rather than putting on lipstick and makeup to make things look better...instead they lather on the mud and dirt.
FA at 50% of events? Nah....we decided against that, now we're gonna do an SSRA. What's that? The SSRA? Oh, sorry did we forget to tell you....we decided against doing that as well.
Trial end? Oh....sometime around the end of 2018 seems about right. What's that? The trial ending? Oh right...we said end of 2018, uhm....okay, how does sometime in April sound?
Financing? Yeah, we just got some...we know its not much but don't worry, we're anticpating one or more subscriptions in 30 days or so. What? Its been over 30 days? Oh well...don't worry, when something happens we'll announce it, don't bug us we're real busy.
Ultimately I think its a huge plus....but I also find it hugely annoying obviously.
Seeking Alpha Blog post:
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/15663412-joe_retail/5293961-resverlogix-trying-annoy-retail-shareholders
Based on the company's history I think expecting 250 events and the winding up of the trial in April....I think it would be foolish.
New write up on Seeking Alpha, just published:
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/15663412-joe_retail/5284863-can-resverlogixs-apabetalone-succeed-biogens-aducanumab-failed
If you like it share it.
Short Interest up to March 15th was 13,821,391
That number can be confirmed here, along with any other Canadian listed stock on the TSX or TSXV:
http://www.iiroc.ca/industry/marketmonitoringanalysis/Pages/consolidated-short-position-report.aspx
With over 270 million shares outstanding we're talking about somewhere around 5% short interest. That's far from being huge, but its not insignificant either.
Short sellers have earned my respect, the risks that bears take on are much greater than that of longs, and as such imo it does not pay to bury one's head in bullish sand and ignore it.
New Blog Post on Seeking Alpha......
Is anyone old enough to remember the 1980's catch phrase: "Where's the Beef"???
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/15663412-joe_retail/5284195-vuzix-beef
Thanks cabel....
I'm a message board junkie, a little OCD to put it mildly when it comes to the stock market.
I don't have any fixed plans because so much is predicated on the results of the trial obviously. I have a sizeable position, and if the PPS were to pop to something in and around $10 CDN per share I'd have a hard time not taking some money off the table, irrespective of my what my opinion might be about the potential for $20, $30 maybe even $100 at the current share structure.
That Biogen news, how their Market Cap dropped $16 billion USD after their Ph III Alzheimer's trial was halted....that really gets the wheels spinning.
Imagine if BETonMACE's MOCA test results indicate a strong potential for that patient population...right now the MC for RVX is only about $500 million USD. $16 billion would represent a 32 fold increase in our PPS...so I don't think its out of the realm of possibility to consider $100 as being realistic.
Your main question is about what convinces me that the Primary goal will be met. In point of fact what I am most convinced about is that shares of Resverlogix are undergoing what I consider "smart money" accumulation.
That's opinion of course...and if I'm right the most logical reason would probably be that its because BETonMACE is poised for success. But not necessarily, a lot of shares were sold after the Assure trial failed. Buyers obviously were the winners then....
I rely heavily on the trading and chart....but I weigh the TA off against the fundamental picture with an eye out for news/hype/promotion. If a company seems to be doing all it can to attract attention, then I consider any signs of accumulation to likely be of the dumb money variety.
Way past the time.......
I figured we'd be trading at at least $5 by the end of 2018, and possibly even $10. Of course that opinion was predicated on the belief that the trial would have wrapped up sometime around the EOY.
Now its almost 3 months past that earlier projected timeline....but DM just commented at Roth that they're now anticipating 250 events to be achieved sometime in April.
I do think we're gonna pop before March rolls into April...and that opinion is borne out of my view on the chart combined with the projected wrap up of BETonMACE. If the pop doesn't come, then I'll be thinking that maybe its because the 250 MACE aren't going to come in April as we're now being told to expect.