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Thanks Rule for breaking it down. My concern now is a spud date. There will be no dilution or fundraising unless the spud date is relatively soon, as stated in the 10-Q: "The Concession offshore Guinea is our principal asset, and our ability to obtain additional financing is likely dependent upon the valuation of this asset and prospects for exploration in the Concession area. If drilling is not commenced soon, our ability to obtain additional financing and our financial condition will be adversely affected, which may impact our ability to conduct exploration."
So those who keep blabbing that dilution is coming soon are incorrect, it will not happen unless they can spud soon. This makes me concerned, what will Tullow do? Does anybody know about the slot availability of the West Leo?
At this current burn rate HDY will have until the end of the year until they run outta cash. Its May. MY biggest question is will Tullow proceed to drill this well or are they waiting on the diligent efforts that will ensure they are not affected by the investigation. The wording is confusing.
Looks like we burned $7.5 million last quarter, a little less than the quarter from before. Everything looks relatively the same from the last 10-Q, but this, I mean this stood out. Very scary.
In addition, the pendency or outcome of the investigations by the SEC and DOJ could subject us to fines, sanctions and other penalties from authorities in other jurisdictions, including, but not limited to, loss or delay of our rights under the PSC, that could affect our ability to conduct business operations in those jurisdictions and materially impact our financial condition and results of operations.
My mistake, thanks. HDY has until Monday May 12th to file the 10-Q. Wonder if some of this sell off is pricing in bad news. Either it comes out after hours or we have to wait till monday morning.
Hmmm, no 10-Q today. HDY like all companies has 35 business days to release the 10-Q after the end of the quarter, making next Friday the deadline. I wonder if they are incoporating the lifting the of the FM into it along with the NYSE issue that was released the 25th, making them need more time.
According to bloomberg next earnings is 5/8/14. 10-Q could possibly come premarket tomorrow. Would be a good time to buy some puts.
Would be a good idea to wait before buying in at these levels. 10-Q still hasnt come out which I expect to drop this 15% or so as it has done the last couple times. Still don't have much clarity on this resolutuion or a spud date and HDY continues to burn cash.
Yea. Like I've said before we still don't have a drill date and are burning through cash. The 10-Q will without a doubt adveresly affect this stock after showing how much more we have spent. To compensate for cost overuns there will be dilution. The only thing that happened here is that we are slowly taking of the band aids from the stab wounds by Tullow.
Victory no doubt. I'm still saying F tullow. They used this as a delay tactic so they could turn a few knobs at their production wells in Ghana. We are still not in the clear. We still do not have a spud date. Could be in a couple months, 8 months, who knows? Also, I expect the 10-Q to come out this week which should put some downward pressure on this stock.
10-Q could possibly come out this week. I'm scared.
If that were the case the market would be pricing it in, but it is not.
I still have negative sentiment on this, however, the news today from Tullow was positive but not reassuring. This may or may not get resolved. Even if it does, what will the resolution entail? Even if we start drilling say 3-4 months from now HDY will have to raise money to cover cost overuns, or sell a % of the concession if anyone will want to buy in with the investigation. We will worry about that later, first we need to get the drilling plan going again.
https://www.hgs.org/civicrm/event/info?id=1360&reset=1
Ray Leonard to present at the HGS April 30th. Mmmmhmmm so this is what hes doin on his time instead of addressing shareholders or resolving the current fiasco. Nice.
Wow, now in the 1.30s. This is appalling.
The well is supposed to cost $115 million, I think that would be a years worth of government expenditures in Guinea. Its GDP is only 5 billion a year, and umm I know there is no relation but uhh Tullow is worth twice that. Impoverished to say the least.
What if HDY is found guilty of corruption? Who says it won't stop Guinea from ripping up the contract like they did with BSGR who was found guilty of corruption that dates back to 2006?
Tullow will not drill until the DOJ investigation is resolved. These cases can drag on for years, HDY will be out of money by then. Pretty simple to understand.
Dilute? How? They are under investigation by the DOJ and SEC it may be very difficult for them to access capital markets, as stated in the last quarterly report.
Great time to sell. Just keeps going lower and lower. What possible good news release will there be? If nothing comes out in the next few weeks we will eventually get the quarterly report which will take the last breath out of this stock after showing how much HDY burned this last quarter because of legal fees.
However, a government committee in the Guinean capital of Conakry now says it possesses what it describes as "precise and coherent evidence" that BSGR used intermediaries to pay bribes to Mamadie Touré, the wife of Lansana Conté, the dictatorial ruler of the country until his death in 2008.She claims to have received a series of payments totalling over $3m from BSGR representatives starting in 2006.
Wells thats not good. The PSA was signed in 2006 and American Friends of Guinea was started in the same year. oh boy.
This is definitely not a buying opportunity, not when your under investigation by the DOJ/SEC and your only asset is in jeopardy. If HDY continues burning $8.3 million per quarter as they probably will because of the lawyers they will have approx $7 million left by September and this does not include penalties if found guilty by the SEC or DOJ or an adverse judgement in the AGR lawsuit. Were only 6 months away from September and before the sirens start going off that we are running out of money. I believe the best thing to do is to farm down the concession but will they be able too when there is doubt in the validity of PSC? Easy to say now but I really wish they diversified their assets but Ray insisted that the Guinea concession should only be explored.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-27/tullow-oil-falls-most-in-six-weeks-on-well-results-in-kenya.html
Tullow falls 3% most in six weeks after a couple of failed wells in Kenya. It fell even harder when the Fregate-1 offshore Mauritania wasnt commercial. If Guinea were to be a dry hole it would be over $80 million down the drain, supressing the share price much harder then these last 2 failures. I have a feeling they really want out of this project and want to move more towards production.
Personally, that is the most infuriating part. The staff continues to draw huge salaries, but for what? How are their large salaries even justified? No revenue and dwindling cash, the company is on life support but they continue to get fat pay checks. Ridiculous.
I cant imgagine that we will get any good news. Can't even remember the last time there was a positive press release can anyone? Unlikely that Tullow comes back, apologizes, and says "lets dril!" This is practically over for HDY imo.
The possibilities for gap DOWN are greater than gap up.
I just don't see it being resolved if favor of HDY. You think after negotiations Tullow is going to come back and say, "your right, our bad, lets go ahead and drill."
Looks like the majority of us were right on this board. None of us thought it warranted a force majuere and neither did HDY and Guinea had nothing to do with it. So what gives? I'm not really sure and I think we should abstain from speculating. Are we in a boxing match with Tullow? I sure hope not.
This will not go any higher unless theere is very positive news. The fact that HDY is rapidly burning through cash and possibly at risk of losing this concecssion justifies the current price.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/10/guinea-mining-simandou-idUSL6N0M70T920140310
No doubt in my mind, 99.99% confident this is why Tullow declared forced majeure. Look at the timing, Tullow declared this a few days after this became public.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-24/anadarko-tullow-halt-ivory-coast-oil-exploration-on-violence.html
Tullow declared force majeaure in Ivory Coast in 2011 because of violence and political unrest. A DOJ investigation into a US company is far from that....
The DOJ probe likely won't affect drilling- Ray Leonard. I don't think he thought Tullow would abandon ship. The DOJ probe won't or shouldn't affect the PSC contract because it is with HDY and another country, the US Justice Department can't do anything about that. So why is Tullow balking a few weeks before expected drilling? Either they heard some really bad news or they are hesistant on drilling a very high risk prospect. Even so, we chose Tullow over 7 other companies and this is how they repay us? Thanks for nothing...
I find it suspicious that Tullow would suspend drilling because of a DOJ investigation that involves a US company operating in their home country. It doesn't affect the PSC in anyway. Tullow said they wanted farm down, probably because of the cost of the well and the overall risk of drilling this prospect. I feel like they are using this as an excuse to get out of it.
Na na nana, na na nana hey hey heyyyy goodbyee. Going to be a bloody mess today.
clearly lots of interest with the volume today...... reality tells me somehow this stock always seems to disappoint.
A month away from drilling and still at very low levels. $14 easy? I don't think so...
I never thought about that, yes that is true too. I also beleive the market is also very skittish because of the DOJ investigation, not knowing what the outcome of it will be. A news release that the West Leo is enroute to Guinea will be a HUGE catalyst imo.
I live in the US so no, I can't purchase shares on the London stock exchange if your referring to Tower Resources. On the other hand I can purchase shares of HDY.
I would like everyone to take a look at Tower Resources. They have a 30% stake offshore Namibia. Repsol, the operator, is spudding a 500 mil barrel prospect in mid April. Tower Resources is not carried on this well and they have approx $20 million in cash. They have stated they are going to farm down 10% to be able to pay for this well, which is supposed to cost $100 million. Converting GBP to USD, their market cap is $240 million. They have had a a very nice predrill runup. If they miss, they will be dead broke. Lets look at HDY. We are carried on a well and after estimating cost overuns and burn rate we should have $15 million in cash after results from Fatala are out. Our prospect is twice the size 1 billion (drill targeting 250 million of it) and we will have 17% more than tower resources. We are also spudding around the same time and our market cap is approximate half of Tower Resources. Is it me or does something seem fishy? I have a bad feeling bad news might be around the corner with all of this silence we have had.
I completely agree. The burn rate is substantial and the pending DOJ investigation doesn't help either. I don't see the lawsuit with AGR settling, it will most likely go to trial in June. Yea, I can't remember the last time when there was a positive press release that boosted this stock. Don't really expect much these days anymore.
Are there any repercussions if Tullow does not spud by April 1st? The farm-in agreement stipulated that best efforts must be made to spud before then so I'm just wondering. If none, then that's that. Well its March now and we are probably 4-6 weeks from spud and still no predrill runup. Reminds me of when HRT spud offshore Namibia and there was no runup, and they drilled 3 wells so they had far better % chances of finding oil. Very possible the market thinks this high risk exploration well won't be a commercial success.