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I have traded this stock periodically times over the last 4 years. Last year bought a ton of it at $0.14 and watched it quickly go to $0.44. My normal rule is to sell 1/3 of my position if I get a quick triple, thus ensuring at least break even no matter what. Instead, since it had always traded above $1.00 in every previous year it was on the market, greed overcame reason and I averaged on the way up and now am privileged to enjoy a substantial negative entry in my portfolio.
I have no idea why this stock has sunk to such a low price. I have to assume that folks smarter than me have fairly valued it. The only positive I can offer is that I know Pat Gorman, the chairman of the board, and I can say without hesitation that he is a man of great integrity. If GSDC ends up a total bust, I would be shocked if it was due to any shenanigans. It may be the result of management incompetence, but not management deceit.
Of course, a failed stock is a failed stock either way and honest management is a fool's compensation, but at least it's good to know that the effort is honest.
I've been investing in stocks for over 40 years and the only R/S I've ever seen work is Priceline.com and it was a very hot stock when it happened. There may be others, I'm sure there are, but EVERY R/S I've been involved in has been a disaster.
The latest example is GALT, which I've owned for a long time. It was trending nicely from 65 cents Dec. 2011 to 99 cents Mar. 2012 when the CEO, who owns the majority of the shares, did an unannounced 1-6 R/S overnight. The stock opened at $5.94 the next day (6 x $0.99) and quickly dropped to $1.89, around a 70% drop. It's now at $2.10.
This is very typical of the price action following a R/S, so please don't wish for one or you may get what you wish for.
Maybe I'm misunderstanding you, but are you saying the CEO is manipulating the stock? That doesn't make sense. He's got too much gong on to try to shave a few hundredths of a cent, even if he
s buying back for his own portfolio. The savings aren't worth his time plus it hurts his current holdings.
Of course, if he's trying to buy all he can at the very cheapest price he can because a huge announcement is coming that will drive the price of the stock through the roof, well then I think I'll find some way to forgive him
I hope he's doing it for personal gain! If he gains, we all gain. If he loses, he loses more than all of us put together. In this case, when a CEO holds the majority of the shares, you can bet he's working for personal gain and that's great for us. Greed, in this case, is very good indeed!
I'm new to this board, but after reading it for a little over a week, I don't understand all the concern about JR. He has more shares than everyone on this board combined and it would be incredibly stupid of him to do anything detrimental because he'd lose more money than everyone on this board combined.
Also, he doesn't have time to read this board and respond to everyone's concerns. Heck, I'm retired and I don't have time to read all the messages on this board. Give him some space and assume he's doing what's right for the company since he has more to lose than anybody.
KMAG may succeed or it may fail, time will tell, but I believe JR is doing everything in his power to make it successful. Doing anything else just doesn't make sense, IMO.
If anyone has any evidence why JR wold sabotage his own company, I'd love to hear it so I could bail out before Armageddon hits.
Correction - in my tell-all story of why I no longer recommend stocks to friends and family, the last paragraph is totally incorrect. I was thinking about another penny stock I am in that has great potential, but is basically a one-man operation (although it has revenues, profit and tremendous growth). Obviously, ELTP is not a one-man operation. Although the CEO is very important, the company would falter, but survive without him.
Sorry for any confusion.
Actually, although the company does only have one product, it is a product that will work with many other existing treatments for a number of diseases to increase efficacy while reducing the toxicity of those treatments. And, after all these years, it is currently in human trials in some of the world's leading hospitals and phase 3 trials should start in 2013.
So all may not be lost, but my recommendations to friends and family did cause hardship, in some cases a lot of it. Just a word of caution.
It's a great letter and has plenty of relevant, supported, facts. I won't advise you one way or the other, but let me tell you my story about suggesting a "sure thing" stock to friends and family.
As I've mentioned on a number of occasions, I have been holding a biotech stock for about 10 years. It was first brought to my attention by a very wealthy acquaintance who was so successful on Wall Street that he retired at age 40 (he's 65 now). To keep busy, he now writes a successful stock advice letter.
Ten years ago he suggested this biotech stock that was going to revolutionized cancer treatment. He put all of his clients into it (he manages investment accounts for select individuals, but does not do so commercially) and issued a strong buy in his newsletter. He personally put millions into it. He also has a friend who is even more wealthy than he is (both have private jets) and this other individual put tens of millions into the company (in fact, he controls it now). The stock was trading for a few bucks, but both individuals felt it would eventually hit at least $100/share once the FDA approved the company's product, that's how sure they were of this company.
Well, who am I to dispute such projections? These guys are both mega-millionaires and both made their money via investments. They both know what they are doing. So, I told everyone I knew about this "sure thing" and personally invested a very large chunk of our net worth into the company.
Now, 10 years later we are hundreds of grand in the hole and the product is not even in phase 3 trials yet. In fact, the focus has shifted from cancer treatment to a different disease treatment.
My family and friends all lost 90+% of their investment, as did we. My rich friend got our several years ago and I should have followed his lead. Our losses were manageable then, but now the stock price is so low that there is nothing to do but hold, hope and pray for a miracle.
I don't blame anyone but myself for the huge lose I incurred, which most likely never be recovered. However, I do blame myself for all the pain and misery I caused those family and friends who took my advice.
I know you want to do this for a great reason, to share the wealth we all hope to have from our investment in ELTP, but even a company with great prospects can go terribly wrong. What if JR gets hit by a truck over the weekend? This is pretty much a one-man show and if anything happens to him, like his previous long illness, the company is sunk. Do you want to take that chance? I leave that decision up to you.
What's going on here? There have been no trades for an hour. Has trading been halted for some reason? I've never seen this with ELTP.
For whatever it's worth, I signed up for a free account with J3 Information Services Group (www.j3sg.com/index.php) and looked at ELTP. I found this information about recent insider stock transactions (this is an image, but if you have an account you can view this information a lot of different ways, including a lot of detail):
www.4usuccessprograms.com/ELTPTransAsOf120612.jpg
What's a little disconcerting to me is that in the last 12 months, and virtually all in the last 3 months, insiders have sold over 14,000,000 shares and bought none. Now, there have been quite a lot of exercising of warrants (the "D" in the "Action" column seems to be for the exercise or "disposition" of warrants - if you have an account you can click on the "Form" column and see the transaction detail), so indirectly insiders have acquired large amounts of shares for incredibly cheap prices, like $0.04. I guess if I could buy shares for that price I wouldn't be buying on the open market either.
For whatever it's worth, I've never been involved in a reverse split that worked out to the positive (which may be an indication of my lack of investing prowess). The biotech I mentioned several times in my posts, the one that I've suffered with for the last 10 years, did a reverse split in March and over the last 60 days managed to lose 67% of its price on the day of the split. The stock had been in a nice uptrend for several weeks until that day, which happened unexpectedly since no prior announcement was given.
Maybe some of you have had better experiences with reverse splits, but traditionally they fail to achieve their intended result. If you Google "reverse splits good or bad" you'll see a number of articles about reverse splits, most indicating that it is a sign of desperation. Priceline.com is one of the few exceptions where it worked out well.
I'd prefer to see ELTP's PPS rise due to profits and growth rather than a reverse split.
I have to agree with goodh2o1 that the repetitive posts of the same information, often many times on the same day, is not only irritating, but childish. It is doubtful that any negative post(s) on this board "destroyed" the stock price. It is also doubtful that any positive post(s) on this board will dramatically affect the stock price in a positive way.
What this board is intended to accomplish, at least as far as I understand it, is for the dissemination of factual information, both positive and negative, to assist members in doing their due diligence of this particular stock. To hear "you didn't answer the question" a dozen times provides no useful dialogue and distracts from meaningful information exchange.
Just because someone challenges an opinion doesn't mean they are evil. Many of the so-called "negative" comments are actually very thought provoking. They force us to think about why we are investing in ELTP. If we can answer those concerns in a positive way, then we have reinforced our commitment. If we are not able to reconcile the concerns expressed by others, then maybe we should not be investing in ELTP.
And in case anyone is wondering, I am very long ELTP and have a very positive outlook for the future of the company and its stock price.
Interesting article entitled "Market Maker Surveillance Report. EDGR, NOK, GE, DTV, ELTP, OGZPY, Highest Net Sell Volume and Negative Price Friction For Wednesday, May 23rd 2012
www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2012/05/24/6322500.htm
Whether you buy and hold never selling any shares or buy and hold most of your position and trade some, that is an individual choice. Both are valid strategies. Party A trying to convince Party B that Party A's approach is superior to Party B's is a waste of time. Each investor should do what they are most comfortable with. There is no one right way to make money with ELTP.
Based on what I've been reading on this board, most of the people who sell a portion of their position into strength seem to do so in order to accumulate even more shares on the pullback. An argument could be made that investors who trade in order to accumulate more shares are even more positive about ELTP's future than someone who buys and holds. However, that wouldn't be fair either. Both types of investors are just staying in their comfort zone. Both are truly convinced about ELTP's bright future. There should be no argument. Both are right.
I couldn't agree more. As my English friends would say, “spot on!”
"If ELTP is such a great and wonderful stock to own why is our own hedge fund dumping or do you think may be dumping?"
I shared my thoughts in another post that you may have read by now. I don't know the history of why the hedge fund wanted control of ELTP, but hedge funds normally do not deal in penny stocks. They also tend to not be long-term investors. Once they saw they couldn't get control I think they just wanted out, but when they tanked the price, I think they decided to wait for higher prices and are selling into high volume strength following announcements.
I hadn't thought about that. I guess it's possible, but why would they want to keep a stock from going up that they could make a profit on? If they have to convert their shares then likely the price is over $0.15, and probably well over $0.15, since the price has to be over $0.15 for so many days before they have to convert and it's unlikely to just stay at $0.15 for that long. Also, where would they get the immense amount of shares they'd need to sell to keep the price down. Plus, once they ran out of shares that could have been worth more, then they are back in the same boat.
Please don't misunderstand. I'm not arguing with you, just "thinking out loud" about a thought-inspiring question. It's possible you hit the nail on the head.
Personally, I think it's the hedge fund although it could be long-time holders who are frustrated (human psychology again) and now that the price is up a bit, they are selling at exactly the wrong time (of course, if the price tanks then they are selling at the right time ).
I don't know that much about the internal workings of hedge funds, but I've never heard of one trading a penny stock. I don't know what their rational was for trying to take control of ELTP (well, I do, profit, but I don't know why they thought they could profit from controlling ELTP), but having failed I think they are looking to dump their shares at almost any cost. Penny stocks are just not something hedge funds do. But rather than give the shares away, I think they are selling into any kind of strength. I know they sold a lot of shares really cheap, but I think they realized that they could do better by being patient. Of course, I could be totally wrong, but that is what I think.
I also think that once they have cleared out their position, we'll see a rise in price. I believe the fundamentals are there and eventually will make ELTP a big winner. And I've put my money where my beliefs are, as have most of you contributors.
Of course, these things always take (a lot) longer to materialize than we thing they will. I previously mentioned a biotech we've held for 10 years and are out well into the 6-figures. The only reason we are still in it is that two mega-millionaires I know have personally invested heavily in this company and continue to believe it will eventually be a winner. I just hope I am still alive to see it as these things (see the first sentence of this paragraph).
I don't like to make predictions that might cause someone to buy or sell because if I was that good at it I'd be on my private island . And if our favorite hedge fund decides to take a hiatus for a couple of days while the stock price stabilizes, then dump a few mere million shares again next week, all bets are off.
However, that being said, I do think if the price closes above $0.12 for three consecutive days that we will start a longer period of consolidation, from which the uptrend will then continue as more positive announcements occur. And because of the fundamentals, I do believe the announcements will occur. If I didn't believe that, I wouldn't have the largest position (based on number of shares) of any stock I've ever owned. Most of my posts here are just "thinking out loud" based on patterns I see, but I am definitely holding for the long-term.
However, I see nothing wrong with trading a portion of your holdings as the profit will allow you to increase your overall number of shares. The only reason I say a portion is because with my timing is often/usually bad. If I sold my whole position for a temporary profit, that's the day ELTP would announce a takeover and I'd miss the really big reward. In other words, trade on anything I say at your own risk. You are responsible for your actions, not me. I have enough trouble with my own actions .
There are a number of really great contributors to this board, and I think about all the comments from all the contributors, but cargo_hauler, you seem to have a good grasp on technical analysis. I am looking forward to learning from your posts, especially when they include charts.
Fundamentals eventually trump technicals. You need strong fundamentals if you are investing for the long-term. However, technicals tell you what is going on day-to-day and are necessary for day- and swing-traders who couldn't give a hoot about fundamentals, only that certain patterns, based on human psychology, indicate when it's time to buy or sell.
FYI, I bought ELTP for its fundamentals, but my charts (technicals) told me to sell it at $0.171 and I actually had an order in to sell a portion of my position at that price, but then greed (psychology) made me cancel the order (see, slow learner! Darn!). The rest, as they say, is history.
The funny thing is, I have fairly accurately predicted ELTP's price movements the last few days, but have failed to act on them. That's the reason I am not living on a private island like Richard Branson .
Stock charts are nothing more than a pictorial rendering of human psychology. The patterns show human emotion. I did a quick search and found this web site. I am not recommending it as something you should subscribe to. In fact, I've never seen it before, but the first few paragraphs give a nice, brief, explanation about stock charts and human psychology.
www.swing-trade-stocks.com/psychology.html
We had a fairly strong close and lots of volume, almost identical volume to yesterday. Whoever is dumping millions of shares, the good news is that it appears they are being bought up and now the stock price is actually rising a little, indicating more buying than selling (duh, pretty obvious huh?). Unless millions of more shares are dumped at the open tomorrow, we may be stabilizing. We need to close three days in a row above $0.12 to form solid support at that level.
Just got back from a run. I agree with your comments about BB. And, as I now look at my quote screen, I see that ELTP did, indeed, bounce back. Good call.
If we can close above $0.125 we may be able to form a new base in the $0.125-$0.145 range.
Although I bought ELTP for fundamental reasons, I tend to be a technical trader. I am holding ELTP for the long haul, but the charts do tell a story. Yesterday I said we needed the close to be above $0.145. However, even though it did close above that level, I did not like the price action at the close and warned that unless there was a strong move to the upside at the open, we were in danger of sliding into the $0.12s, where we are now. If we break $0.12, then we will likely see dr_l's prediction of prices in the $0.10s (hey, don't shoot the messenger, that's just what I see, although it is just my opinion because if I really knew what I was doing I'd be living on my own private island like Richard Branson).
Long haul, I am optimistic. Short-term, I am concerned.
Although we closed above $0.145, I did not like the bid/ask pricing action at the end of the day. Let's hope that when people come home from work and see the patent announcement in their email that it generates some buying enthusiasm tomorrow. We are at a critical price tripping point, in my opinion, and we could see a drop to the $0.12 range if we don't close higher tomorrow.
We did have a 58% increase for the two trading days April 5-6. The fact that we are holding above $0.145 so far is a good sign, especially given the fact that we have almost 5.6m shares traded already. That's a lot of selling pressure, but the stock price is hanging tough. If we can close above that $0.145 level, we may start to form a new base.
And don't forget, at $0.145 we have over 100% gain since the Dec. 30, 2011 close of $0.07. Not too shabby!
There seems to be support at $0.145. As long as we stay above that price, the stock should consolidate and build a base for the next leg up. If we close below $0.145, I have concerns that we may see a stronger pullback. We can't expect ELTP to rocket to the moon. it closed at $0.07 on Dec. 30 so we've had an incredible run already. We need some consolidation or we'll just fill the gap when the price shot from $0.079 0n April 5 to close at $0.125 on April 6. That's a 58% rise in two days. Not many stocks hold that kind of gain. However, ELTP has held it and then some, but now we need to build a base, If the price stabilized into a range between $0.15 and $0.17 for a few weeks, that would be good. Then when the next PR is released, it should move to a new consolidation level.
I hold another stock (and have for almost 10 years and it shall remained unnamed) that went from $0.26 to $1.90 literally in a week after a PR, then a week or so later was back to $0.63 before slowly descending back to $0.32 and now, five years later, it's at about $0.33 (yeah, I know, stupid me - shoulda, coulda, woulda sold at least some of my monster position when it went up over 7-fold in a few days, but lesson slowly learned as I am a slow learner ).
The point is that ELTP could realize the same fate unless it consolidates here (oops, I just saw a $0.1401 bid and $0.142 sale - hold your breath and cross your fingers).
Yes, misinformation is misinformation and I am not defending anyone. My point was that even naysayers serve a purpose and that is for those in the know to use their knowledge to refute misinformation with facts that result in those of us less informed becoming more informed. I've learned a lot by reading the replies to dr_l's posts. In many cases I've felt that if dr_l's posts hadn't been made, then the resulting, usually extensive, replies may never have been posted, at least not in the comprehensive format that many are. That's why I thanked dr_l, for bringing out the best in the more knowledgeable members of this board.
I hope this clears up and misconceptions about the meaning of my message.
Right now the stock is acting as I suspected it would after the announcement. Those who are "selling the news" are currently in control, but that may be temporary as those of us with large long positions refuse to sell. I love that a company of this type, which will soon be again profitable, is selling for pennies. I believe it's an incredible bargain.
Happy trading,
Hank
I would like to thank dr_l for, first, providing thoughtful challenges to our thinking and, second, for inciting many of the quality posters to this board to dig deep for answers to dr_l's challenges. Like him (“him” being my assumption) or not, this is a much more interesting and thought provoking board because of his posts. Without members like dr_l, this site would not be nearly as informative or fun to read. Don't take his playful jabs too seriously or personally. He appears to have a lot of fun “tweaking” posters. Just keep up with the quality parries to his jabs and we will all be better off for the exchanges. And don't ignore outright what he is saying. Often he has excellent points to consider, as do the majority of the posters here, which is why this is my favorite stock board on all of the Internet.
Thank you everyone for your kind words (including those who sent private messages). You may want to be careful listening to any predictions I make . A little history. I am retired. Thanks to our stock investments my wife and I were able to retire in our mid-50s with, we thought, enough money to last out lifetimes. That's the good news.
Now, the bad news. I tend to bet big and ether win big or lose big. Not very smart I know, but I guess I'm a slow learner and that's why you need to be alert if I start prognosticating.
Anyhow, the fall of 2008 was a disaster as I had a number of big bets that crashed faster than I ever would have thought possible (see, slow learner, as the same thing happened to us in the spring of 2000). I even ended up going back to work full time for 19 months starting in April, 2010.
But back to the good news as work is where I "discovered" ELTP. My manager spent seven years as a stock broker. He also had a consulting business that he sold for mega-millions. His trading account is many, many millions of dollars. He only works because he's relatively young and, frankly, is a workaholic and would be bored to death if "all" he had to do is trade stocks and travel between the half dozen homes he has around the country, including Hawaii (as it is, he brings in his own laptop, hooks it to a Sprint wireless internet card to keep off the company network, and trades stocks in his office between his managerial duties).
It was my manager who recommended ELTP to me (I don't know how many shares he has now, if any, but the last I knew it was in the 7-figures). I did my due diligence and, of course, made a big bet (slow learner? Maybe not this time. I think this was a smart move). I don't have all our eggs in this one basket, but this still is a pretty large basket. However, we already have a large profit in ELTP and believe it will be the vehicle that will get us back to the promised land. Of course, I could be wrong , but I am pretty sure I am right. Time will tell.
Have a nice evening all you ELTPers,
Hank
I have had a large position in ELTP for over a year and have followed this board almost from the day of my first buy. However, I am a posting virgin and after what I saw happen to a newbie last week, I was almost afraid to post for the first time
Because it appears we are (finally) on the verge of some sustained good news, I thought that it might be fun to dream about some BIG possibilities. Here is a weekly chart of ELTP price action for this millennium:
As you can see, the price was around $20.00/share at the start of the millennium and was over $10.00 several times. It was above $5.00/share for several years then dropped below $5.00 in mid-2002. It stayed in the $2.00-$5.00 range from mid-2002 until after the first quarter of 2008.
I do not know the history of those earlier years or what caused the price to drop so dramatically and stay so low for these last four years. However, this chart does show that the company has spent more time above $1.00/share the last 12 years than below it. Here's hoping for a quick return to those happier times.
Good luck to my fellow soon-to-be-ELTP-millionaires.
Hank