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Orebody
In the video, the stacked veins or walls that are the ore body look massive. This sure looks impressive size wise - does anyone know what to make of it?
Does Orebody translate to "economic grade gold" based on the grades reported to date?
Earlier posts and an email from Gary in IR mentioned a wall of gold - here is an excerpt from an old email (August):
"So, people want to hear 80 meters at 20 grams, but here we are hitting an average of 8 grams across 10 meters on a wall that just keeps going. The potential JV partner understands this and so do geologists. Investors want the quick hit. The quick hit could come with signing a jv or hitting the bottom of the wall."
I wonder if each of the drawn orebodies shown on the video are such walls of gold.
Thanks to all for the great exchange of info, opinions and ideas. It has made holding on to the stock (and buying more) over the long seven month slide tolerable, knowing that I am not alone in my long term outlook for the SP.
G
Still not crazy volume - I am thinking it is us retail types topping off - I scraped together all my uncommited nickels to buy a few thousand more shares yesterday. We still are not seeing major $ getting in are we? A few hundred thousand shares isnt much. and feels like retail buying to me with those who ARE selling, holding on for more unlike past weeks when someone was giving it away keeping the price down. I hope this is a sign but I still consider these short term SP moves without news almost irrelevant (kept me from being depressed the past 7 months and from getting too euphoric today). We have a lot of ground to make up. I hope you're right!
$450k per month burn rate.
I was pleased to see Gary's response on monthly costs. This suggests EXS is funded through early 2013. EXS running out of money was the biggest concern I had. Looking forward to the next cycle of PR's.
D was referencing this EXS IHub "board" and you are assessing composition of EXS "board of directors" I think.
Thanks for the great / positive discussion though I feel our discussion and efforts are a lot like the men at a birthing who were sent to boil water and tear cloths to be kept busy.
The results and news will drive the price - any other efforts to promote the stock etc - will have limited effect and even then real news would correct any temporary small, retail volume SP changes that occur in the interim.
Regardless - everyone's continued DD is most helpful to reaffirm the fundementals related to EXS.
Porphyry Question -
How does EXS know with such certainty the shape, size, quantity and the location of the TPW porphyries?
From where did that knowledge come ? Previous drilling results? Seismic testing? Overhead electromagnetic imaging, Etc.
I am wondering how that geology - as well as the U shaped “Syncline” with the deep hinge point are “known” while all details about underground gold remain unknown until a hole is drilled and assayed.
GLTA
As iron sharpens iron, so one man sharpens another.
It's simply a difference of perspective - a long term outlook versus short term. Only time will tell who was correct in their assessment of the current circumstances. The reasons that many on this board hold a very positive long term outlook and the disconnect between that and current SP have been discussed ad naseum. What would you do differently if you were CD?
Ron - one possible explanation for increased volume could be Greg McCoach who authors The Mining Speculator (a newsletter recommending selected Junior Mining Stocks) moved his recommendation of EXS down to ninth on his list (from 5 I think). His list is intended to achieve fastest/largest returns of his recommended junior mining stocks with quality properties/solid mgmt and some special story that is expected to cause stock to jump in near future (no guarantees). He cited investor fatigue and the fact that the EXS story is taking longer to develop than expected. I am paraphrasing. It is possible that McCoach's downgrade (though he still recommends EXS as a "buy") has caused some loosely held shares to be let go off at these prices. Enough for the bump in volume. I believe this month's Mining Speculator was issued late Monday...but that doesnt explain the one day delay....
Many thanks Steven!
Thanks Destinator - let the games begin!
Lukoste - it all depends on whether the reduced option price is to raise funds and increase officers' ownership in the company or is it designed to reward for poor performance. You are assuming the later. I am not so quick to condemn. I guess in time it will become clear.
Look at it this way - 8 cents off of the PP price is meaningless in the big scheme of this stock and if it isnt meaningless then we really shouldnt be hanging on to our shares - should we?
The only tools EXS has to raise SP in an ethical and real way is to continue to drill, continue to prove the resource (with or without glory hole) and to have the patience to wait for the right offer (JV or otherwise).
A full treasury is the only thing that allows us to increase SP without settling for bad JV offer or acquisition...so filling the treasury to allow for a year of continued proving of the resources appears to be THE PLAN and this reduction of option price to recent price levels if it encourages officers to "buy now" is a good thing long term...because it buys negotiating time.
Without the 20% discount If I were an officer I wouldnt be so inclined to excercise now my option - so I guess it depends on the when and if the options are exercised.
When do these options expire? If the intent is to provide needed funds soon then it is good. If they will sit on the options until after the price has risen then it is a bit more supicious but I tend to be a glass half full guy and give good folks and people I respect/believe in the benefit of the doubt rather than immediately jump to a conclusion that involves accusation of wrong doing.
As always, I reserve the right to be wrong.
23901 - i see it a bit differently but I am a glass half full guy -
If officers/directors want to invest their own money to buy in and help EXS fund the treasury for continued drilling and 43-101 enhancement (which are the only tools CD has to increase SP) and they give themselves a chance to do so at just a 20% discount off the current .40 PP's then I see this as a good thing - I am willing to give them a 20% break. If they dont exercise the options at .32 THEN we have something to be concerned about....
JMO
Talking to myself - I would think the best negotiating tools CD has with a would be suitor is a) full treasury and b) keeping drills drilling. The TPW property is what it is and only those two things can get the real news (assay results) that is required to enhance the market's or would be suitor's opinion of the property's value. I like that CD is doing what he needs to on both counts - these are the best way to get max value and perhaps the only way - raise funds and drill.
I have read pessimistic talk of the potential JV going south - perhaps it is simply too early for them to make a lucritive enough offer and a game of cards seeing if EXS has the will and confidence to pass on a low offer. Loading up the treasury and the Phase IV drilling program are exactly what is needed to increase SP. Sure there is dilution but these are the only cards EXS has.
Joe - yeah wouldn't we all!
Officers of the firm getting ready to load up at current prices...these are existing options correct - so this presents no additional dilution not already considered... and being below SP it will get executed adding to the treasury allowing some additional continued drilling alleviating the pressure to setttle for less than sweet deal. Looks like a positive sign.
No EXS trading today? Has there really been no Explor volume on OTC (EXSFF) or TSX (EXS)?
Here are 900,000 of the shares (exercising options) posted in the insider section on vantagewire.com
Date Insider: Shares Transaction Value
5/30/11 Dupont, Chris,
Director of Issuer 200,000 Exercise of options at $0.20 - $0.20 per share. $40,000
5/30/11 Dupont, Chris,
Director of Issuer 100,000 Exercise of options at $0.20 - $0.20 per share. $20,000
5/30/11 Dupont, Chris,
Director of Issuer 100,000 Acquisition or disposition under a purchase/ownership plan at $0.20 - $0.20 per share. $20,000
5/30/11 Dupont, Chris,
Director of Issuer 200,000 Acquisition or disposition under a purchase/ownership plan at $0.20 - $0.20 per share. $40,000
5/30/11 Dupont, Chris,
Director of Issuer 200,000 Acquisition or disposition under a purchase/ownership plan at $0.20 - $0.20 per share. $40,000
5/30/11 Dupont, Chris,
Director of Issuer 100,000 Acquisition or disposition under a purchase/ownership plan at $0.20 - $0.20 per share. $20,000
Full disclosure question:
Posting and making public the drill hole locations would allow the general public, arm chair geologists as well as knowledgeable entities to better gage the reserves at TPW. As a card player I know there is a reason to not show your hand until you are ready to play it.
Wouldnt posting drill hole locations make the company an easy mark for a low risk, low premium, hostile takeover if the geology is as positive as many on this board have opined?
What I am asking - are there positive strategic reasons that would be in the company and Shareholders' best interest for NOT putting the hole information out there for all to see?
If the reasson for not posting hole location info was to mask poor results or discontinuity, that would surely get EXS and CD into trouble....and certainly be counter to his acquisition of 1.3 million shares.
But, there is nothing about CD's past or current behavior to suggest he isnt doing this ALL the right way so I am inclined to look for explanations to our questions that best match the evidence rather than feed conspiracy theories.
Any thoughts?
Agree totally - in fact I have no expectations regarding 43-101 - 200,000 would be wonderful given the reported HMC geology.
From what I have read the 43-101 is just the starting point giving the TPW property legitimacy - from there CD can build ounces....eventually there will be JV deal acceptable to CD or perhaps glory hole (but cant count on that at the depths CD will be drilling with current $).
The likely path is 43-101 - continued good drilling results proving the model and increasing reserves - leading to an acceptable JV offer which in turn leads to shaft and the higher grades.
Anyones guess as to how the SP will step up with each of these milestones but the point is it could take time... but given the mineable grade found in 46 out of 47 holes is there any doubt where the train is headed...us longs think not - the only question is how long it takes the train to get there.
Not to mention the other properties....I could care less if the price goes to 10 cents over the next month - this short term SP has no bearing on the value that will be proven and realized. JMO FWIW
At the risk of being offensive - your doubt is incorrect. You have less skin in the game than several individuals I know on this board. One thing CD has not done - is hyped the stock...in fact that is what you appear to be suggesting he needs to do more of. Take a deep breath - you cant sell now - so wait for the 43-101 and continued drilling - its going to be ok.
Elcaribes - I am down more than you are (I read your previous post) so I feel your frustration believe me. Price movement at this low volume (relative to outstanding shares) is practically meaningless and subject to manipulation by even the smallest of trading volumes (e.g. the methodical walking down of SP that we have seen or the paint jobs that happen to raise SP at the end of trading when someone buys 100 shares). The EXS story is what it is. The facts speak for themselves. Without buyers wanting large volumes the price can and will do anything small groups of buyers/sellers want it to do....If you are not selling soon (needing the cash) then take a deep breath and wait for 43-101 and then continued drilling and adding to the reserves - buy more if you can stomach it. I am convinced the current pain is temporary and I have more skin in the game than you do. JMO FWIW
I would think that:
a) full treasury (post PP's),
b) 43-101 and
c) the time a full treasury buys allowing continued drilling and adding to the proven reserves indicated by the 43-101 once it comes out
are the ingredients required for CD to go after maximum value -
Without each of those three items he is not dealing from a position of strength.
It makes sense to me (logically) that nothing will come out of the CA until those three items are in place. I have no specific investing knowledge to support this so it is just my opinion.
I also suspect CD will want to continue to drill and add to reserves for "as long as it takes" before settling for an early offer that many of us are longing for.
Time appears to be our friend assuming the latest PP closes successfully. This reaffirms what the more knowledgeable folks on this board have been sharing with folks like me, that this play will require patience even post 43-101. JMO FWIW
No worries - I hadn't seen your post with the $250k reference and was just putting it out for informed discussion and correction if needed. That is what is great about this board.
Makes sense - I didnt know the cost difference to go deep was so significant - if that is correct then proving the model at the lower depths is the way to go. Thanks for clarifying. I recall current holes are approx $75,000 per hole...
Thanks Long - understood. I asked the question because that is where common wisdom suggests the higher grades and hingepoint are.
Do we know when they will start drilling deeper? It has been my undestanding that they have had the same drills turning for a long time and that a different set up might be required for deeper drilling Can anyone shed light on this?
Thanks Destinator - I agree. I added again at .31 and am patiently (trying anyway) waiting for news (assays, 43-101 and beyond).
Destinator - Where has McCoach been promoting EXS again - TMS?
I have no reason to assume CD is anything other than a master card player at the exploration game with his experience, training and pedigree.
You've got to know when to hold 'em
Know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away
Know when to run
You never count your money
When you're sittin' at the table
There'll be time enough for countin'
When the dealin's done
So if he has results and is sitting on them, I am, inclined to believe that there is a very wise, strategic reason behind it that will benefit all of us in the long run. There will indeed be time enough for countin' When the dealin's done!
To suggest that if he has results, that he then must be sharing those results with "investors" before releasing in a PR is not an appropriate assumption.
So grateful that the first tranche of PP was successful in the midst of the weakness impacting the junior mining sector. I could almost feel our collective sigh of relief on Friday.
At the risk of stating the obvious - $ in the tresasury is the bridge that gets us to real news that will lift SP (positive assay results, JV, 43-101 and beyond).
Anyone see any threats other than junior mining sector weakness?
JMO
Price movement at such low volume (relative to shares outstanding) may mean absolutely nothing...certainly no heavy hitters are behind the movement or people "in the know"....last I looked only about $50,000 worth of EXS was bought and sold on TSX today - that is probably change from the couch for some folks on this board.
We all need to keep in mind that the current market cap (say worst case 170 million shares at .36 per) of $61.2 million is covered by just 180,000 ounces of gold...valued at 20% of $1700/oz... If I did the math right, even if the SP tanks on mediocre PR's (should that be what we get..God forbid) we know the intrinsic value IS there based on drilling to date and will be proven with the 43-101 and the continued drilling at TPW and other properties..the good news is there is nothing but upside from the current SP and plenty of that.
The relatively low volume associated with current trading range suggests to me that current trading is completely irrelevent to the end game. As many have said - patience will be rewarded.
disregard - first trade was posted just after I hit submit.
No trades today? That seems odd.
GEMCOM appears to be a software package for calculating gold quantities in a stratified rather than block type model (got this from googling it).
Truly wish I was in a postion to be acquiring more but am loaded up - and willing to be patient given the prize. The repeated pattern of a post PR selloff by folks trimming their non core shares after just good (but not great) PR has been extremely painful for all of us. We'd almost be better off, short term, with no news!
Waiting patiently in pain,
Gmoney
If we connect the dots (which is frought with risk) - it doesnt make any sense whatsover to have drilled 5 wedges off of 47A based on the posted 47A results. So that begs the quesiton as to what encouraged CD to spend limited resources on five wedges off of a non impressive 47A. Very curious....if we go ahead and connect the dots, one very plausible explanation is there were very positive hole 47 results that for some unknown reason havent been released...
I found it interesting that hole 47A only reports mineralization in a one meter band, fairly shallow, from 78 - 79. But that they committed to 5 wedges off it based on those results (the nomenclature suggest 5). I wonder if there are hole 47 results that are not being reported that motivated the 5 wedges and the second hole 47A. Looks like more confirmation of the model which is great but suggests we need to wait for 43-101 resource report in the fall to get a handle on this as many have said all along.
Anyone know what the hole 47A designation means - I was expecting 47 - but perhaps I wasn't paying attention.
Anyone know what the hole 47A designation means - I was expecting 47 - but perhaps I wasn't paying attention.
That's how I read this....though it is probably business as usual for us longs...the PR will either rocket this to triple digits and beyond on fantastic news OR the market will be disappointed with just good news that continues to prove the model and there will be more time to acquire after a dip. Seems to be no middle ground for EXS due to the high expectations that many of us are fully convinced will be met in due time. Here's hoping this is that time!