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I have not and will not shy away from the Nat Gas play. The next entry I post will be my all in push. That is saying alot coming for me given the torrid affair I've had with this bit*ch. Right now sh'es still toying with the weak or is it the meek. Either way buyer beware until we see the next move. That's when we'll be standing at the ticket window.
I made mention of a possible pullback in metals last night and it may be playing out. I love your suggestion of a entry closer to $50 for a move to $100. It holds water and could be a rock solid move for those sold on the impending move were about to see from the shiney stuff. BLING......
WTI $42.16 is key resistance, break that and we should see $45. That said I'm not sure this is the proper point for a long entry. I have a much lower target in mind.
ES dropping like a rock. Could be a good payday for me if this continues. UVXY already up 2%
NG: $1.907 is a key test. Inability to break out above this critical level would suggest a test of $1.733
Looking for a decent down day from the markets, we shall see.
Good luck today, I'll be in and out through the day but hope to be around for the open.
UVXY could be a possible opener for me in the morning
Gold/Silver
I've said many times gold was at the bottom of a multiyear decline and that we'd soon see a prolonged ,several year, rise in prices. I'm sticking to that call but I have to say that this has been an ugly bottom and IMO we're not out of the woods yet. That doesn't mean we should have a portion of our portfolio in metals because those that stay the course will be rewarded, of that i'm a firm believer.
So let's talk numbers.
As long as GC holds 1226 I see 1350 as the likely 1st target high.
As long as SI holds 15.60 I see 17.00 as the likely 1st target high.
Now while I do think we've seen the bottom in both metals it's important to mention the what if's as in what if we see a pullback before continuing higher. I'm not saying this is going to happen and I'm not even considering it unless we break the support numbers I've mentioned above.
However if gold does break that 1226 number I see three scenarios in which we could see anywhere between 1200 and 1175. As bad as that might sound that would be the time to load because it would cement the current bullish pattern and should provide for a quicker ride up to that 1350 figure. So as you can see even if we get that drop it would be a blessing in disguise for those prepared to make the play.
Silver is even easier to call as the chart is showing strong support in the 15.25 area so even if it breaks 15.60 the downside should be minimal and it would take a very strong move through that 15.25 area to even consider it in a bearish posture. As with gold if it does test those lower areas we should expect a very quick move higher up into the 16.50-17.00 range. So again those prepared to make the play should be able to pad any profits already made coming off the bottom.
Now this of course is all just my opinion and is only short term forecasting. I'm certain, in my own mind, that metals have bottom and all one needs to do is buy and hold to come out a winner on the other side. So like you I also have interest in gold and silver and will eventually add individual miners to my metal portofolio.
I hope this is helpful and provides a clear picture without a bunch of charts and drawings to cloud to point.
1300's it's actually amazing after the 2015 we had but let's skip the markets for a minute and talk about gold and silver. I think most of you guys know by now that I've been trading commodities and with the exception of my Nat Gas call have done pretty well. I'm not going to shy away from Nat Gas because like I always say, "no on is right all the time". Anyway we still have a great opportunity coming up in Nat Gas and I'm still working the bejesus out of it. Anyway back on track with Gold and silver.
I've said many times gold was at the bottom of a multiyear decline and that we'd soon see a prolonged ,several year, rise in prices. I'm sticking to that call but I have to say that this has been an ugly bottom and IMO we're not out of the woods yet. That doesn't mean we should have a portion of our portfolio in metals because those that stay the course will be rewarded, of that i'm a firm believer.
So let's talk numbers.
As long as GC holds 1226 I see 1350 as the likely 1st target high.
As long as SI holds 15.60 I see 17.00 as the likely 1st target high.
Now while I do think we've seen the bottom in both metals it's important to mention the what if's as in what if we see a pullback before continuing higher. I'm not saying this is going to happen and I'm not even considering it unless we break the support numbers I've mentioned above.
However if gold does break that 1226 number I see three scenarios in which we could see anywhere between 1200 and 1175. As bad as that might sound that would be the time to load because it would cement the current bullish pattern and should provide for a quicker ride up to that 1350 figure. So as you can see even if we get that drop it would be a blessing in disguise for those prepared to make the play.
Silver is even easier to call as the chart is showing strong support in the 15.25 area so even if it breaks 15.60 the downside should be minimal and it would take a very strong move through that 15.25 area to even consider it in a bearish posture. As with gold if it does test those lower areas we should expect a very quick move higher up into the 16.50-17.00 range. So again those prepared to make the play should be able to pad any profits already made coming off the bottom.
Now this of course is all just my opinion and is only short term forecasting. I'm certain, in my own mind, that metals have bottom and all one needs to do is buy and hold to come out a winner on the other side. So like you I also have interest in gold and silver and will eventually add individual miners to my metal portofolio.
I hope this is helpful and provides a clear picture without a bunch of charts and drawings to cloud to point.
Guys let me make something very clear here just so there's no confusion as we go down this road.
A lot of us have been calling for a large pullback in the markets and I hate to use this word, "analysis" for the most part feel the markets are inflated and IMO they are. That being said what we're about to see play out will be nothing more than an epic shake. The markets will fall but in the end we will see new highs and the next move higher SHOULD and I can only guess it will play out according to pattern be an even faster and larger move then we just seen. I say this because just as we feel the markets are over inflated now after the shake many many more traders are going to feel the exact opposite and want in before they get left out like they did on the last move higher. It's simply nothing more than a vicious cycle and those that have the foresight to try and catch the middle 80% of each move are the fat cats laughing at the rest of us. So BULLS or BEARS the goal should be the same; make money. So that's what I hope to do, simple.
I tell you guys the last eight months of my trading career have been remarkable. I can point to 100 different occasions that provide anecdotal evidence to support that claim but that would be missing the point entirely. We have a tendency to make this much more difficult than it has to be but the bottom line is it comes down to the people you surround yourself with and the combined knowledge, support, and wisdom of that group that will ultimately decide if you win or lose as a trader.
Man this is a tough game to go at alone, of that I'm absolutely certain. So the fact we have both bulls and bears in this circle will only make us stronger and hopefully when either are on their high horse the other may be able to talk some sense into them before they give back hard earned coin.
So no matter where this shakes out; remember it will go back up.
Buddy you may be a lot closer than you think. The lowest number I have is 1350 but that doesn't mean much. The mear fact we're even discussing 1300 after the recent highs is enough for me to be very concerned.
You are very correct about April being the month the markets will show they're hands.
Take out SPX 1995 and I guarantee u we see a 300 point drop. Best I can do on such short notice, lol
I've got a ton of work to get done so I'll be here if anyone has anything.
Now I'm going to make a call right now and you guys can hold me to it but please give me a little latitude on exactly how we get there.
SPX will hit 1675 but my money is on a larger drop, more like 1560. Now with that being said I don't think 1350 is out of the question.
I've learned a thing or two in my absence and IMO the way to PLAY THE DROP WILL BE IN THREE PHASES.
Like I said, you may think I'm crazy but I'm telling you with about as much certainty as I can these are the numbers I'm seeing. I do believe I told you we'd see a 500 point drop from the highs so these new numbers are not that far off.
Go ahead and plot 'em. See if they make any sense and if you even think it's a possibility. Of course these plenty of money to be made during the drop but the biggest score IMO will be getting in the rise early and building a pyramid for the rise to new highs.
I'm sure you guys know by now that I'm a bull at heart but these charts are about as CLEAR AS THEY GET. I don't know what the catalysis will be but something is going to shake the hell out of the markets and I'd like to see us well positioned to take advantage of it.
Any thoughts on these numbers?
Mr Wrinkles I especially missed you and our conversions. Hopefully you won't think I'm mad but this is what I'd like for you to watch as a key for us to start watching for the broader market decline.
Watch the IWM to drop to 108.5/.6 followed by a rise up to 112-120. That 112/120 will be the key for the SPX/SPY to start dropping.
Thank you my friend. I hope my timing is on point. We're getting ready to see some serious movement from these markets IMO. Don't think I'm crazy when I start spouting off these numbers but I see a huge opportunity to short the markets and after we hit bottom the rise should be very quick. I promise to give a more detailed opinion but I'm just not prepared at the moment. I just cleaned out my desk today so I haven't done much on anything in the way of presentation but it doesn't take a genius to see what's coming. Nice to see you too Mud, feels great to be back and not under some azzholes thumb everyday.
I remember calling 1800 but I also remember saying that I thought we would see several large swings with some as large as 500 points. Now this being my first night back I don't want to go all out until I'm at least 75% certain that we're starting our next decline.
I know that sometimes when I make wild calls some folks think I'm on the bottle or something like that but the charts don't lie and they're starting to point to a much lower number than that original 1800.
If I told what I think right now without any historical background you may think I need professional help. The problem is I'm absolutely certain we're gonna get there because it's played out almost on key but we're in a grey area that we need to mull through so I can give a more accurate reading. Basically we could still have a little higher to go before the free fall but fall we will.
Just off the top of your head make a guess where you think we'll bottom before starting a climb to new highs?
Missed you guys, going to be back posting away in a few days. Good Luck to all.
Good to see you guys.
Been away for a while but will be back posting away in a few day. Going to concentrate on the broader markets, commodities, and a few select individual stocks.
Good Luck Orions
Mr. Wrinkles
Do you have any of my old post predicting the SPX hitting 1800 or the SPY hitting 180. I think it would be of value to start by reposting those as I feel the next move lower is very close at hand. I do believe we came up like 10 points short of 1800 but that is actually a good thing for those looking for another opportunity to play the down side. In short my 1800/180 call was only the first part of a larger drop and I'm going to update my new numbers if there's any interest.
Well did we ever hit 1800?
Congrats to Starbuxsux, our newest asst.mod on the EST Board.
Hello All,
It's been a very long time since my last post and I'm sure many of you have found other places to call home. Today was my last day of work at GunvX and frankly I should have quit months ago. The $ was just too good and the experienced gained was invaluable. Once you see how some of these major players work the markets it's impossible to look at a chart, news article, blog, or any other public information in the same light.
So with that being said I'm no longer under any non-disclosure agreements for any personal trading going forward. I will be working all of the commodities and certain individual stocks moving forward. I've come to the conclusion that many of my old practices are/were unnecessary and moving forward I'm not really sure how I'm going to post my trades.
By far my most profitable and accurate trades were commodities, oil in particular. I've gained a pretty good understanding of how the big boys use the monthly options schedule to their advantage so I plan to continue using the very same playbook I put together over the last six months or so.
I see no reason to change my current trading mentality so commodities will be my mainstay I'm going to continue to work the widest variety of commodities I can manage but oil/nat gas seems to be the easiest play at the moment so that's where I'll start. You guys know I also love to play the metals so thy won't be far behind. This go around you'll notice my plays will be both long/short with the main difference being the amount of time I leave my trades open.
I'm now a firm believer in cycle trades and they've become my bread and butter if u will. I don't have to watch every up/down tick of every up/down day as long as we get to the projected end point that's all that matters. In the end I'm performing well above average and my success benchmark when it comes to "professional" traders is still acceptable IMO. So my CoMod plays will be/have longer end points with a higher profit target. With that I'm hoping to be able to concentrate on other individual stocks for shorter quicker profit targets.
We've made it a habit of never apologizing on the board but in this case I do wish I hadn't stayed away so long. I will be here working on getting our board back on track and posting what I think is more useful information then what we're used in the past.
Now when I say I'll be here working I will be but my wife has demanded I also spend time with the family which I haven't been doing much of recently. Truth be told she the main reason that I've decided to work from home again and with a little luck we'll be back on track in no time. It's good to be posting again and I'll be happy to entertain any questions/suggestions an we go through the process of getting this thing back in order.
So with that being said I look forward to working with any of you still around and I'll do my best to share whatever knowledge I can. All I ask is that you cut me a little slack to get back into the swing of things and not fill the board with a bunch of drama and personal potshots. I really thought about not starting backup at all but for some reason you guys are kinda fun to hang out with and it certainly makes the day much more enjoyable.
SK
SO I'm going to get to work now so I can post some usable info for those that may actually want to trade today, LOL....
Yep Fibs and EW's r a deadly combo. Now take that combo and blow it up on a larger scale and it's telling me that we are headed for a wild ride with each ensuing market swing getting larger and larger in both directions with a final market correction that will be something that many of these BULL MARKET babies will lose much if not all for the money they've "earned" over the last six years.
KI I'm telling you right now in the middle of the night so all of IHUB can see what the hell I'm posting, lol. The final market correction will be divesting and very very few traders/investors will be able to comprehend what is happening. IMO we'll see at least a 30% correction and I actually think it's going to be more.
In this market a 30% correction will be "THE END OF DAYS". However the traders that don't get stuck in either bull or bear mode are going to make a fortune and I do mean a fortune. I'm really looking forward to the next 12-18 months in this market because it's going to be anything but boring and the bull/bear riot is already in the works. The funny thing is it's already started and the one's are are working both sides right now are the one's that are going to be standing at the finish line with their fat pockets chalk full of gold coins. ;)
My whole point is this market is not the same market that many of the "successful" investors/traders are use to working and those that attempt to use strategies that may have worked over the past 6-7 years will IMO fail miserably.
What does that mean for us????
BowChickyNowNow$$$$$$$
That's great... Don't know if I even told you guys about how I started using EW in my overall TA but I was a long time EW skeptic. I didn't put a lot of faith in the process until I met a fellow trader that actually understood what the hell it was all about. It's like anything else in trading, until you understand how to apply the concept it's useless. However once you actually see results it's hard to look at a chart and not start counting........good for you and I truly mean that....
YEAH......This is a very very exciting time to be in the gold market. We haven't been perfect but we've made some damn good metal calls this year. Im not trying to put this off but it deserves a much more detailed explanation than I can give tonight.
If someone can find the DX chart I posted back in May that had the bottom target posted it may help with my explanation. Regardless I'm going to spend some time laying this one out for anyone that's interested.
This is without question an opportunity that simply doesn't come around that often and IMO long metal plays are currently investment grade. Of course I'll be trying to time as much of the move as possible to take advantage of the technical opportunities but LONG money has got a huge bottom that's being put in here.
I've said it before and I'll say it again. Gold is starting a multi-year bull run and I'm accumulating.
Of course the question is do we have a bottom? I believe we've reached my bottom target range but that's not the question. Now the question is not only do we have a bottom but if we don't will that bottom be in the triple digits?
ST, I'm not copping out but the technical perspective deserves more of an explanation than I'm prepared to present at the moment.
More to follow
It is possible but not my current opinion. However the reward is too great not to cover the bases. Make sense?
Now I may have been gone for a minute but you know I'm not gonna miss an opportunity to throw my opinion out there. I'm just getting warmed up, much more to follow.
It's great to be back and it's good to see you here plugging away.
I agree with your UWTI play but I'll add that caution is still warranted.
I hope you guys made a few bucks on the DWTI play cause I think this UWTI move is going to put the overall return those amassed from the DWTI trade to shame.
I don't think it'll even be close and I agree that the risk vs. reward is in the trader's favor.
So the $64K question is do we have a bottom?
The question is Market Status?
Well that's a lot to put in one post so let's talk about general market direction. If you guys remember before I left I had said we were headed for 1800 and while we got close we still haven't breached that number. One could argue that I also thought we'd break 2150 before we started this correction but here we are none the less. Does that mean this correction is over and we're headed higher? I can't say I believe that to be the case. Does that mean we're going to continue lower and breach the 1800 mark before we continue higher? Well yes and no....
Yeah I know, that basically was a bunch of crap that didn't say much of anything. So let me try and clear things up.
The reason I went back to the start of the correction is because it may not be the start of the correction. So if we haven't started the correction how can this be the bottom?
Man that is some deep Kimchi...
Is anyone following what I'm doing a poor job of trying to explain?
Well it's good to be back but today was a total bust. I decided to upgrade to Windows 10 before getting my accounts and programs back online. I really should have chosen to start with anything other than my main CPU. That turned out to be an exceptionally poor decision given what I went through trying to FIX what issues the update created. Anyway that's history and it's time to start looking forward to some good old fashioned swing trading.
Good Afternoon EST,
I want to thank all of you that kept the board going in my absence. I'll be happy to share my experiences over the last few months and explain my rather abrupt departure when we get caught up but for now lets stick to the charts/sentiment and stock/market specific stuff.
I'm not back at full speed just yet but I'm working on it. I'm gonna need a few days to get everything back online and updated but it shouldn't take too long before I'm back in the "swing" of things. While I'm getting everything back on line I'll do my best to answer what questions I can and I certainly don't mind offering my opinion where appropriate.
If I post charts or other data that you're not familiar with please ask for clarification. I figure the best way to do this is to reply to questions first. That way we can get the pressing stuff out of the way and eventually we'll cover most of the usual suspects. After we get caught up and back on the same page I'll cover/post more specific industry/sector/stock plays.
It's great to be back and believe or not I actually missed you guys.
CL-Check out the link for my targeted low posted a couple of months back. The next few days will give us a much needed clue as to where we can expect to see the final low. Can't speculate at the moment but will certainly be watching. More to follow.
CL final leg lower
Bottom? Send me an email: SwingTrader@live.com
OK, so back to work on Tuesday. If anyone has anything they want me to work on over the weekend go ahead and send it.
I do believe we had this ES/SPX decline mapped out with a target of 1800 +/-. We fell just short of the 2150 I was looking for before this started but it happened none the less. If anyone has any charts I posted please re-post them so you guys can see what my targets were. Not breaking 2150 first does complicate matters but at this point
LOL, I got laughed at when I posted this back in early May.
CL Post