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Actually, I am waiting to go long when the time is right and might consider using leaps myself.
I'll let out a valuable technical signal that I use to time a buy.
Use 5 and 20 period ema,9,26 macd and a positive cross at the 60 line on Williams%r/ When all three are going positive at the same time on a 180 day daily chart your probability of success should be in the 60 70 percent range. Sell when any one of them reverse the bull call.
Cut your losses quickly and let the profits run until the above reversal signal is given. Try it out on any stock or do a past regression to back test. Best to you all.
Best of luck.
BTW- fundamentals must be in place first and I am still waiting for PLUG to get it right. Too many disappointments to date,but hope springs eternal. Actually the niche PLUG is in keeps me interested.
And the increasing interest in the hydrogen energy play has merit. Just not quite there yet.
A little birdie told me he will be pre-empting The Price Is Right.
Now that;s star power.
Oh Yea The CEO speAKS. Consider that the kiss of death. I am still waiting for a bottom to form and it appears to be below 4.
In the back round is MERS cov.If,God forbid, an outbreak starts NVAX is at the forefront for the needed vaccine and they will surely get a rapid go ahead from the government. Remember the BARDA contract reaffirms the government's confidence in the NVAX technology.
If the number of cases start to grow NVAX will spike overnight.
As I read it,GILD is a potential treatment for RSV not a vaccine to prevent it.
So they are not competitors in that regard.
I must admit that I am amazed that no one has posted this article from early this a.m.
Well here it is:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2220863-novavax-a-unique-opportunity
I will be adding over time to my position,not because of this article,but I really feel and by being involved as a shareholder in NVAX that this is a no brainer.
I have been recommending NVAX for a long time to my friends.
And I am certain that this company is the one to pay your children's college tuition.
Please read all the other links mentioned.
That's called INCOMPENTENCE
SO you say. But do you know?
Please explain your comment below.
All that talk at the start about using the Distribution center filling station as a hub to fill tanks at actual stores where they need fork lifts to get customer orders from high shelves and the batteries are dead?
How is that possible?
Lighten up NO WAY. I am waiting for an entry point-not likely near term. PLUG still needs to have numbers- FUNDAMENTALS count. I DO NOT SEE IT. Maybe in a couple of quarters I may change my mind, but as it stands. PLUG is headed much lower.
Now I will mention, watch what happens from this post. Sholud be interesting.
Between "heavenytstars,detearing and the aaasnap or whatever.
ALL SHILLS.
People who read these message boards BEWARE or corruption and "scam" posters.
GIMMIE A BREAK. YOu are a SHILL.
Of course you do. The basic premiss in to cut losses short and let the profits go. The BEST sells I EVER had was to say ENOUGH. Let it go and move on. What you posted to me was the PRIMARY REASON why people LOSE money .
The mantra of cutting losses short is the most IMPORTANT MESSAGE I can get out. Listen your premise was wrong, or stuff happens. DO NOT think it will work out. ODDS do not favor that point of view.
AND the best money made after 40 plus years of "trying" to make it difference is to know when you are "wrong". I have been doing this "thing", simply because I enjoy it.
Yes, I have lost "big bucks" along the way, but presently and quite content to know I will leave a nice benefit to my grandchildren.
The problem is it is always in the future. TELLS ME A LOT about BS.
So here we are just after the CC and stock down about 5 percent from yesterday. WHOOPDEDOO.
I will monitor the stock as I usually do, but am still thinking lower. Sorry longs. AM there are better places to go long.
Presently I am neutral for now because there are no catalysts that interest me. Always better fish to fry.
I hope I do not offend anyone that is not my intention. Just trying to build my portfolio,like you all.
NAMASTE
Pre market low 3.75 avg. HIGH at 10 am around 4 now 3.80 real time.
Will wait and see, but see 3.75 as support breaking that we will see .
Again no feeling s here for longs just how I see it. Make money both ways.
Sam if I missed his intro, because I was trading other stocks while listening to the CC,then my bad, but if it is him then my reference to INCOMPETENCE- STANDS. He is so unsure and so boring.
I am re considering a short after some consideration.
The fundamentals do not support your lo0ng position.
That's how I see it.
For your benefit HOPE I AM WRONG. GLTY
I am listening to the CC. Are you kidding me. WHERE IS THE CEO. Like I said INCOMPETENCE.And the people on the CC are not impressive. Shorts WIN. NO DOUBT>
I am now looking to short to much lower pricing.
Let you know soon.
I really doubt it. Longs will be holding on to HOPE. That's a sucker move. Fundamentals matter,execution matters,competency matters. Hope I am wrong for you longs,BUT??
Chart reading is an art. And it is always backward looking. You can use technicals to gain insight to buy and sell levels. There is no predictive value in future pricing. In the long term, and by that I mean many quarters to years fundamental analysis is the best predictor of future prices. But never forget the exogenous forces at work, especially the one that come out of the blue.
I will be on the CC today and expect that based on my observations on this company,PLUG price today will be lower at the close.
Fundamentals and incompetent management make my prediction the more likely outcome.
On SA by PeakPerformance this morning,who is long CPST
Capstone: Extreme Sell-Off And Reliance Upon Misinformation Creates Tremendous Entry Point
Monday, May 12, 6:54 AM ET | About: CPST
Peak Performance
I began investing at the age of 14 and, at the age of 21, secured a job as a financial consultant at a top Wall Street firm. At 23, I was managing $65 million in client funds. Ultimately frustrated by Wall Street's prevalent practice of contradictory buy-side/sell-side analysis and behavior, I obtained my MBA from a top business school and became a proprietary trader contributing to a successful firm. Having studied options trading, finance theories, efficient markets and economics, I learned that although not worthless, formal education was ultimately irrelevant to peak performance in real-world market application. Upon achieving consistent above-market returns, I started my own fund just 1 day before the market peak in October, 2007. Now I look to share ideas with the investing/trading community to help offset the toxic practices so prevalent on Wall Street.
Summary
Extreme sell-off of nearly 40% in 10 trading days creates a tremendous entry opportunity.
Over-reactive sell-off was partly based on reliance upon misinformation.
Reasonably expected near-term operational performance and developments warrant a much higher stock price.
Since my recent article on May 6, "Capstone (CPST) Part 3: Still Triple Value Bound," a tremendous sell-off has occurred, creating an even better buying opportunity. In response to my article, readers posed questions and made requests for clarification. In this article, I will address some of those concerns directly and provide further commentary on CPST's recent developments. Specifically, this article will discuss the current financials, recent developments and the regulatory environment; all key factors in making this stock grossly underpriced.
Regulatory Environment
Pending Bill HR 4428
On April 11, 2014, CPST announced that Congresswoman Linda Sanchez introduced a bill, HR 4428 - The American Microturbine Manufacturing and Clean Energy Deployment Act.
The Act would "…provide a 30% investment tax credit for microturbines, providing parity with tax incentives offered to fuel cells and renewable technologies. Capstone recently received a certificate from the US Environmental Protection Agency Combined Heat and Power Partnership recognizing the role Capstone's microturbine technology has had in removing more than 3 million metric tons of carbon dioxide with cogeneration projects alone. This award further highlights and quantifies the clean and green impact of Capstone microturbines.…By advancing smart tax policy and regulations to help businesses expand and grow, H.R. 4428 would enable American microturbine producers to triple their domestic manufacturing. The bill will also eliminate the project size restriction placed on microturbines in the current tax code, opening the door to larger deployment opportunities."
The bill is currently with the House Ways and Means Committee, of which Congresswoman Sanchez is a ranking member - thus increasing the likelihood of the bill moving to the floor of the House for a vote.
The Obama Factor
The Obama administration is continuously focused on climate change and has several other key environmental decisions to make in the coming months, including the fate of the Keystone XL pipeline and how to address methane emissions from oil and gas drilling; a problem which CPST solves.
Russian Sanctions Do Not Deter
Mr. Gefvert published an article on May 6, 2014, expressing concern that "Russian sanctions targeting the energy sector will affect its [CPST's] Russian distributor which represents over 10% of sales." Message board chatter following this article indicates that many investors sold the stock based on this misinformation.
In fact, Capstone subsequently addressed this concern on May 8th , stating, "…the sanctions have had no impact on Capstone's Russian distributor or the company. The current EU and US sanctions are directed at particular Russian citizens. Additional sanctions are directed at dual use items and have not directly affected Capstone, as microturbines are not dual use items (meaning an item that could also be used for defense purposes)." (Emphasis added)
Commentary on Financials and Related Concerns
Investors reacted to slightly lower than expected revenues along with the need for a capital raise. Although revenues missed the mark slightly, the net income growth compared to the same quarter last year has exceeded that of the S&P 500 and greatly outperformed the Electrical Equipment industry average.
The net income increased by 51.1% when compared to the same quarter one year prior and rose from -$4.48 million to -$2.19 million. Per the company's press release on May 7, Darren Jamison, Capstone President and Chief Executive Officer stated, " Management currently expects backlog to increase by approximately $22.7 million, or 15%, to a record $171.6 million as of March 31, 2014, compared to $148.9 million as of March 31, 2013....Our expected annual revenue growth of 4% in fiscal 2014 was slower than in recent years but still reflects an impressive compounded annual growth rate of 30% since fiscal 2007...Fourth quarter 2014 revenue was the second highest in company history...Healthy new order flow pushed our backlog to an expected record of $171.6 million as of March 31, 2014...Ending backlog is a leading indicator of future revenue growth, and coupled with expanding markets and market opportunities, exciting developments in our product suite, and advancements in our aftermarket services business, these trends bode well for our revenue and margin expansion opportunity in fiscal 2015 and beyond. Likewise, as customers continue to migrate toward larger units and larger projects, Capstone's crossover to positive EBITDA and cash flow is forthcoming"
CPST clearly has a strong balance sheet both in absolute and relative terms. With its cash balance of $31.57 million, yahoo finance reports a current ratio (also known as a working capital ratio) of 1.57 which implies current liabilities of $20.1 million ($31.57/1.57). Using the cash balance of $57.7million after the equity raise reported in the SEC filing, the current ratio is now 2.86 (57.7/20.1 million), which is strong by any standards. In fact, the S&P 500 average working capital ratio for 1Q2014 was 1.17. So even before the capital raise, CPST had a working capital ratio higher than the S&P average. It is now nearly 2.5 times as strong as that average.
Analysts Concur
This year two analysts have substantially raised price targets, citing the high near-term probability of becoming cash flow positive.
On February 19, 2014, Capstone traded at $1.69 when FBR Capital increased its price target to $2.50 from $2 and upgraded Capstone from "Perform" to "Outperform" Analyst Aditya Satghare commented, "Based on our proprietary work on the horsepower opportunity in key end markets such as oil and gas, we believe that natural gas as a fuel is at an inflection point and that Capstone, with its reliable and versatile microturbine product, is well positioned in this market. We also see multiple other end markets where the higher-uptime, lower-emission profile of microturbines and CHP capability should result in meaningful market penetration. While the timing of new orders is difficult to predict, we see the potential for a sizable increase in order sizes, from both new and repeat customers, over the next 12-24 month. As a result, Capstone should transition into a profitable and cash flow-positive business model over the next 12-24 months. We rate the stock Outperform and recommend purchase, although we would not rule out near-term stock volatility around upcoming earnings, given the meaningful stock run-up, and would use any pullback as a further buying opportunity."
Additionally, as mentioned in my prior article, Cowen and Company raised its price target from $1.90 to $2.70 on March 11, 2014.
Developments
PACCAR/Peterbilt Partnership
Capstone recently partnered with PACCAR's subsidiary, Peterbilt, to develop economically viable natural-gas engines. On April 27, 2014, Tyler Crowe commented on a natural gas powered Walmart truck, "This is what Wal-Mart envisions as the future of trucking in America, and natural gas engine manufacturers like Westport Innovations (WPRT) might want to take note, because this Capstone Turbine powered truck could be one of its biggest threats in the long haul trucking market. Not only does this truck take advantage of cheap natural gas, but its fuel efficiency could potentially blow any previous truck out of the water."
Wrightspeed, FedEx and More
On May 6th, Wrightspeed, which uses Capstone Microturbines for its powertrains, announced delivery of its first "Cleaner than EV" truck to FedEx and on May 10th, Wrightspeed announced a partnership in Northern California to covert diesel garbage trucks to electric drive. Wrightspeed is catering to "anyone and everyone operating commercial fleets 'including companies like Cintas (CTAS), UPS (UPS), Waste Management (WM), Brinks (BCO), Frito Lay (PEP), etc.'" Given Wrightspeed's growing market acceptance, it is reasonable to believe that Capstone's revenue will be positively affected.
Flare Reduction Project
On May 5th Capstone announced that it received multiple orders from its new distributor, Electro Mecanique Industries (EMI), for two flare-reduction projects. Capstone microturbines will burn the associated gas that is currently being flared, thus capturing otherwise harmful emissions and converting them to useful, onsite energy. According to the GGFR (Global Gas Flaring Reduction) Partnership, an estimated 150 billion cubic meters (or 5.3 trillion cubic feet) of natural gas are being flared annually. In other words, 25% of the gas consumption in the U.S. is being emitted into the atmosphere is essentially just harmful waste. "Capstone is committed to its role in environmental stewardship as a clean and green company and will continue to work with companies across the world to reduce the practice of gas flaring in an effort to be more ecofriendly and responsible. The best solution to the flare gas problem is to capture this gas from the wells and use it in the production process," added Jamison.
Conclusion
In the past 10 trading days, in response to lower than expected revenues, a capital raise and unfounded fears of impact from Russian Sanctions, CPST's stock price has dropped nearly 40% - falling from $2.20 on April 25th to a close of $1.33 on May 9th. In reality, the capital raise should serve to increase near-term revenue growth and the Russian Sanctions are irrelevant to Capstone.
As of April 15, 2014, a tremendous 15.4% of the float was short and that figure is likely much higher today. A major short-squeeze could be triggered by news of further positive developments such as additional orders for CPST's products and advances on the regulatory front. Such likely events could cause a dramatic surge in CPST's stock price.
What does that mean? Learning to stand again. Are we talking about someone who gets up after they fall down?
PLUG is still in a bottoming mode. I made my last profits on puts not to long ago.
Still waiting for some resemblance of a bottom.
DO NOT see it yet.
Best of luck to you longs,but if you are in this stock for the long term, I hope you have backup. I will only trade it because it is so volatile.
PLUG is not GE. Remember you can lose a ton real quick.
I still maintain that management and the financials DO NOT bode well for PLUG.
Just trying to be real. Sorry, if I piss the "diehards off".
Big dump-er-runnie between 12:09 and 12:13. Wild Bill you pointed that out. I didn't check on time of sales,but would bet they were big blocks that wanted out.
Hedge fund or orchestrated to drive price lower. Who knows? I still own my core position at higher prices,sadly,but have been around long enough that cappy is never one to NOT disappoint.
Best to you all.
Still waiting for another trade somewhere down here. Am patient.
Got lucky on my last one by selling pre-market at 1.53 from 1.45.
Depends when "forthcoming" is:
1
: being about to appear or to be produced or made available <the forthcoming holidays> <your forthcoming novel> <funds are forthcoming
I can only wish is on the next quarter report,but wouldn't count on it.
I wonder if my posts are unbelievably unbelievable in a good way ???
Since I am independent and retired since I was 48 years old,I thought that today I should have some fun and break chops.
Been trading since 1975 and am still in the game. Love retirement since 1991 and felt that maybe I may contribute.
The world is full or treachery. Be careful out there.
BTW I am an old timer who learned his lessons the hard way.
Love life, love your better half more and thank GOd you live in the USA.
I do not mean harm,but am saddened that there are so many fools out there.
Just saying.
Thanks for the review. Glad you know I am a lonely old man.
See I am smiling on the cruise ship.
If we get to be friends I will have you out on a fishing trip on my boat. Then maybe you will change your mind about my state of mind.
Love to have fun.
GLTY
My treat on City Island. Great fish restaurants.
BTW I was on acruise with my profits from trading.
Not the best picture of me, but what the hell this is IHUB,so who the hell cares. At least I put my pictures up for all to see.
GLTY
Good for you.
I first was aware of PLUG back in Sept. of last year.
Road it out to (unbelievably) 11 plus.
Waited watched boards like this and realized that here was a trading opportunity based on hype and diehards.
Shorted made more profits. Am out anf have been for quite awhile.
Still looking for the next trade.
NO! Just hoping I can get you to smarten up.
Declaes. You are one of the "honest" posters on this board.
I have traded this POS stock since Nov. of 2013 and banked some nice profits both long and short.
Anyone who thinks this is a long term hold needs to look at the numbers and the quality of management. Great trading vehicle though.
Thanks.
Vegas Trader. Maybe you should hang out at the tables.,
oOst of the people who occupy this board are totally clueless.
I wonder how many of you read a prospectus or annual report,then analyzed it in quite somber and thought it all out.
You are all sheep to be shorn. Wake up.
I trade off of you fools. But have enough of a heart to warn you that "Stupid is as Stupid does".
Best of luck to you all, you'll need it.
Well, I am now trading CPST more then before. Bought at 1.44 sold at 1.53 premarket. One day trade made up for some (small) of my long term loss.
Technology good. World and market distractions, not so good.
I still believe,so I am long.
Will play the game here and everywhere else.
At least the sun came up today and for that I am greatfull. BTW in NY sunny and 70.
Fed the cats.turned off the market. Need a break.
Sometimes quite and music beats trying to make a buck.
GLTA
All you need is a margin account?
Chklingon. Hey buddy. Fact is you can short this stock if you want to. I personally have never shorted this company, but have shorted others when appropriate, like PLUG, in my opinion a good move.
But I do agree after looking at the article that the poster has an agenda, simply because like most posters they pick and choose the relevant information. I am still going over the prospectus.
ANd at the close today bought back, only because the decline is to much. Unfortunately,as I said before the damn Russians worry me.
Best to you.
The technology is fabulous and it's application is a no brainer.
Only wish I shorted TWTR today on the release of the restricted shares. Can't catch them all, but we do the best we can. LOL
So what did I do after getting out at 1.67 pre market.
Buy back half of my sale just now at 1.45.
Go figure. Yes HOPE springs eternal.
Actually I am betting for a quick bounce based on the severity of the decline.
Still need to do my research though.
Best to you all.
HOPE spring eternal, but ????
BTW Please read post 9838. Most prescient, if I say so.
And what has transpired with all the babble, hopes and dreams since.
BIG losses, unless you were short.
Sorry that's why the other side of long is just as valid.
Back in April 29 of this year I posted a long comment.
I was right on.
Please read it again POST 9888.
The pain is only starting.
I made my profits with puts.
Asn I repeat, "Stupid is as stupid does".
Wake up folks.
I feel your "long" pain.
I was only trying to help.