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I agree with you 100%. whether one uses charts or gets ones information otherwise, this drop was quite predictable in that sense.
I responded to another message on the same lines.
Charts do help in defining timing. Fundamentals determine long term investing.
Stock market was the last one standing. Everything else was going down for long term. Even stock market there were a few that were holding it high.
With margin calls on every currency and commodities and emerging market this was bound to come and it gave signals.
But you tried to act above all like God and try to curse these folks that nature should take them away.
To think bad or do bad they are equal.
You may not agree with anyone's position but have no right to talk the way you did. In my opinion they were wrong but you are equally wrong.
Intel stock is $29.60+. He has already made enough money on his investment in less than a week.
Another point of view with some additional colors:
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THE NEW COMPUTER memory from Intel and Micron is deceptively simple.
Typically, memory chips store information in transistors, tiny three-pronged devices that can house electrons. But with their new memory tech, unveiled on Tuesday, Intel and Micron have done away the transistor, storing information in what is really just a lattice of wires. Each piece of information sits where two wires cross.
“This is the simplest structure you can build,” says Al Fazio, the Intel Fellow who serves as the director of memory technology development at the chip giant. “It’s just the intersection of two orthogonal lines.” The companies call it 3D XPoint—pronounced “3D cross point”—because those intersecting wires look like Xs.
The trick is that after years of research—dedicated work on the particular project began in 2012—Intel and Micron say they can now build these chips from materials that can store and retrieve unusually large amounts of data at unusually fast speeds. According to the two companies, the chips are about 1,000 times faster than the flash memory that underpins your iPhone and can store about 10 times more data than the DRAM memory in PCs, laptops, and servers.
Chip companies tout new memory tech all the time. HP has been banging the drum for its “memristor” technology for years—with little real product to show for it—and Phillip LoPresti, the CEO of a company called Everspin, tells us his company is already offering a memory technology behaves a lot like 3D XPoint. But Intel and Micron are claiming a unique blend of memory characteristics, and there is a very real need for the kind of chip they describe. The biggest customers may be internet giants like Google, Facebook, and Amazon.
The Third Dimension
Yes, 3D XPoint is terrible name. But that’s the way things are done in the tech world. And at least this name is descriptive. The “3D” bit indicates that those cross-point wire lattices can be stacked on top of each other (see image above).
Basically, these chips store data by changing the electrical resistance at those many cross points. This is done with a tiny contraption that Fazio calls a “selector.” This is kinda like a diode, which can switch from low resistance to high.
Screen Shot 2015-07-29 at 10.13.13 AMClick to Open Overlay Gallery
INTEL
That’s quite different from memory technologies like DRAM and Flash, which use transistors. A transistor is essentially a switch made from three basic components: a source, gate, and drain. When a certain voltage is applied to the gate, current flows from the source to the drain, and the transistor is “on.” Apply another voltage, the current stops, and the transistor is “off.” 3D XPoint doesn’t move current like this. “It changes the property of the material,” says Cooke. “It doesn’t try to store an electron.”
This simple architecture, Fazio says, is what allows the chips to store so much more data than DRAM (per area). They still aren’t as fast as DRAM, but unlike DRAM, they’re “non-volatile,” meaning they can retain data even when a machine is powered down. Flash is non-volatile too, but 3D XPoint is significantly faster than flash. That extra speed, Fazio says, comes from the unique combination of materials that Intel and Micron use to build the lattice and the selector.
A Real Need For Speed
Intel says 3D XPoint will be great for gaming machines—“today, game designers are restricted in what they can do by the capabilities of the system,” says Rob Crooke, Intel senior vice president and general manager of the company’s non-volatile memory solutions group—and that may well be the case. But the real need is inside the massive computer data centers that power the most popular web services, including Google, Facebook, and Amazon.
In the data center, these companies must spread information across thousands of machines. In an effort to speed the storage and retrieval of this data, they’re replacing traditional hard drives with faster flash memory, and in some cases, they’re running databases that keep data in DRAM, sidestepping both hard drives and flash. As described by Intel and Micron, 3X Point can provide still more performance inside these warehoused-sized computing centers—something the Facebooks and the Googles are always hungry for.
“They do a lot of in-memory, and they do it across many systems,” says Patrick Moorhead, president and principal analyst at the chip-centric research firm Moor Insights and Strategy.
At the same time, Moorhead says, the new tech can help more traditional businesses. The typical enterprise doesn’t store data across thousands of machines the way a Facebook or a Google does. But smaller outfits are running “in-memory databases”—i.e. in-DRAM databases—on individual machines or small numbers of machines. 3D X Point can potentially help here as well. It can provide more memory per machine.
The Materials Secret
Will this new technology work advertised? We’ll have to wait and see. Intel and Micron say that first machines equipped with 3D XPoint won’t arrive until next year, and the two companies won’t even say what materials they’re using to build these chips.
But that’s telling. Intel and Micron don’t want anyone else imitating what they’ve done. Remember: this is a rather simple architecture. The companies intend to both manufacturer and sell the chips on their own. They jointly run the Utah plant where the chips will be built.
That means they think they’re onto something. But as Moorhead points out, this also indicates that this will very much be a tech for the world of data centers. “IT is their business,” he says of Intel and Micron. Data centers are complex things. But sometimes, simple technologies can improve them in big ways.
Sandisk has already taken big beating this year and it is down big.
It is up due to recent earnings. But it is down YTD. Shorting here may not be the best idea. In short term one can buy puts to play that in my opinion.
Here is some more that explains better where these could be used.
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Intel’s breakthrough new invention will fix all your memory issues and obliterate SSDs
BGR News
Chris Smith
July 28, 2015
How many times have you complained about the low amount of RAM or internal on your computer or smartphone? It turns out Intel and Micron have been listening for quite a while and the two companies have announced a brand-new type of memory that’s both faster and cheaper than NAND storage and DRAM memory.
But the best thing about the companies’ new 3D XPoint technology is that it can apparently replace both NAND and DRAM in a device while simultaneously improving overall speed.
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3D XPoint memory offers up to 10 times greater density than DRAM, which means manufacturers could include more RAM memory on a device without worrying about taking up too much space that could otherwise be used for battery purposes.
Furthermore, the new memory that has been in development for some ten years is up to 1,000 times faster than NAND, which, in turn, is 1,000 times faster than traditional hard drives.
Finally, 3D XPoint memory would be even more durable than current NAND memory used in SSDs and smartphones by offering 10,000,000 write cycles — NAND has a durability of up to 10,000 write cycles.
According to a metaphorical infographic provided by Intel, in the time it takes a hard drive to sprint the length of a basketball court, NAND memory would run a marathon, and 3D XPoint would circle the globe.
It’s not clear at this time what the first 3D XPoint devices will be, but the two companies said they’ll launch next year.
More details about Intel and Micron’s impressive new memory plans are available at the source links below.
I read more and it is not clear whether Intel will make them in its own plant or use IMFT plant. Only time will tell.
It appears that Intel will be producing these parts along with Micron. That is something new. It will increase Intel utilization of its fab significantly.
The samples of this new memory are available this year and production in 2016. It is not in 2018 like some one stated earlier.
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Intel, Micron unveil "breakthrough" 3D XPoint memory tech; shares higher
Jul 28 2015, 12:16 ET | About: Intel Corporation (INTC) | By: Eric Jhonsa, SA News Editor Contact this editor with comments or a news tip
Intel (INTC +1.5%) and Micron (MU +3.7%) proclaim their jointly-developed 3D XPoint (pronounced "3D crosspoint") non-volatile memory technology delivers speeds up to 1,000 times faster than NAND flash (also non-volatile), and is 10x denser than DRAM (much faster than NAND, but volatile and less dense).The NAND JV partners declare 3D XPoint "significantly reduces latencies, allowing much more data to be stored close to the processor and accessed at speeds previously impossible for non-volatile storage." Unique materials and a cross point array structure are said to make 3D XPoint possible.Major write endurance improvements are also promised relative to NAND. The first product will be a 128Gb (16GB) chip.Intel/Micron are sharing additional at a San Francisco event (webcast). Shares of both companies are higher amid a 0.6% gain for the Nasdaq.Update: More details from Fortune. 3D XPoint samples are expected by year's end, and commercial shipments are set for 2016.Update 2: During the Q&A session for the announcement, the cost for 3D XPoint is said to be "somewhere between" that of NAND and DRAM. Intel/Micron affirm their commitment to 3D NAND, while noting its high densities.Update 3: Both Intel and Micron plan to make 3D XPoint products. Micron CEO Mark Durcan claims he doesn't know of any comparable rival products on the way, and predicts 3D XPoint will be used for both storage (like NAND) and main memory (like DRAM).Four months ago: Intel, Micron launch 3D NAND line, promise cost/capacity edge
You got guts my friend.
There is joint conference call tomorrow. Is it announcement of disruptive memory technology
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http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2015/07/27/micron-deeper-relationship-with-intel-may-be-next-says-susquehanna/
I do appreciate you point of benefits of upgrading but it is not compelling to me. My plan is through Verizon and it works very well on 3G.
As of yesterday sales of smartphones were growing big time but now there is a glut leading to lower mobile dram prices.
What is implications of all this to smartphone manufacturers including Apple. A lot of these manufacturers will go under pretty soon.
It does the same what iphone 5/6 does. Upgrade?
Exactly. I paid $1.00 too. When Verizon offers iphone 5 and or 6 for $1.00 I will get it.
Even Verizon offers similar plans. I have one for my wife.
Correction-65% of revenue but 15% of profitability. Most of the profits come from Licensing.
Nothing new. Intel stated at the time of purchase. Either borrow money through these senior notes or issue big chunk of shares.
This is what was being said. Where will most of these phone makers go-bankrupt and out of business.
Qualcom chip business is in decline and it only makes 15% of its revenue. 15% layoff is all in chip business.
I have iphone 4s and I don't see any need for upgrade. I am not alone in this regard.
Apple has 92% of the profit and that means the rest of phone makers only have 8% of the profit whether that is operating profit or net profit.
The phone makers are in real trouble and how long they will continue to sell at cost or at a loss.
I know that. But qualcom business is slowing significantly and it has to cut cost by laying off 10% of its workforce.
With apple making 92% of profit, there is no way MTK and other phone makers can survive.
Process has just started and we will soon see the affect of consolidation.
I am sure you must have read recently that 92% of mobile profits goes to one company. That is Apple. If mobile business is slowing down it is going to hurt everyone else including Qualcom and Samsung of the world.
Intel's presence in phone market is minimal. It is smart to be watchful and curtail its investment.
Just heard Qualcom is going to layoff about 3K employees-10% of its work force.
BK and Stacy are olders than 40s themselves.
He picks up normally all the negative that impact Intel and ignores the others.
They are not today. TSMC has not caught up to Intel yet. If you think path for them is bed of roses then you are sadly mistaken.
But only time will tell.
Give him credit. He is admitting that it is getting tougher and is will take more like 2.5 years vs. 2.0 years it took in the past.
It is amazing how in the last a few days before the earnings these analysts came and lowered Intel price target siting their check of the supply chain. Where is SEC when you need them?
In hind sight we all can stay with any stock in my opinion.
Intel handily beats earnings and revenues
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Intel Surges 8%: Q2 Revenue, EPS Beat; Q3 Rev View ; Trims Year View
By Tiernan Ray
Chip giant Intel (INTC) this afternoon reported Q2 revenue and earnings that topped analysts’ expectations, and beat with its Q3 revenue view as well, and trimmed its year outlook. The shares surged in late trading.
Revenue in the three months ended in June rose to $13.2 billion, yielding EPS of 55 cents.
Analysts had been modeling $13 billion and 50 cents per share.
Intel’s revenue from its “client computing group” dropped 14%, while its “data center group,” which sells server chips, saw a 10% jump.
CEO Brian Krzanich said the results “demonstrate the transformation of our business,” and that the company expects the debut of its new “Skylake” chip later in the year, and the roll-out of Microsoft’s Windows 10, will “bring excitement to client computing.”
For the current quarter, the company sees revenue of 13.8 billion to $14.8 billion, which, at the midpoint, is above consensus for $14.06 billion.
For the full year, the company trimmed its outlook, with revenue expected down 1%, versus a view back in April for revenue to be flat. That is still better than the consensus for a 2% decline this year.
Intel stock is up $2.35, or almost 8%, in late trading.
That is ridiculous cheap price considering MU was in high 30s.
I am not sure US Govt. would allow this.
Finally a positive spin.
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Intel: Don’t Worry About PCs, Wells Sees a Q2 Beat, Q3 Upside
By Tiernan Ray
Amidst several notes cutting estimates for Intel (INTC), one fellow who’s not too negative on the outlook for the chip maker is David Wong of Wells Fargo, who thinks PC trends are not as ominous as many think.
Intel reports Q2 results Wednesday, after market close.
Wong, who has an Outperform rating on the stock, and a $40 to $50 “valuation range,” is modeling revenue in the June quarter of $13.2 billion, the mid-point of Intel’s forecast, and he projects 52 cents a share in net income.
That is better than consensus of $13.06 billion and 50 cents.
He actually sees positive trends for PC production in the latest industry data points:
We are very encouraged by the sharp pickup in PC build activity in the month of June reflected in reports from Taiwanese notebook makers and motherboard/computer companies. For example, sales for our Taiwanese notebook aggregate increased 23% month/month in the month of June, with units up about 25% month/month. We think PC build strength might continue through July, ahead of the launch of Windows 10 at the end of the month.
And contrary to some worries last week that the revenue warning by component vendor QLogic (QLGC) signaled trouble for the server market, Wong expects Intel’s data center products will prove a bright spot in the report:
In the March quarter Intel 19% yr/yr growth in data center group revenues, following 18% growth for the full-year 2014. In early May Intel introduced Haswell-EX computing processor units (CPUs) 9 for Mission Critical and Enterprise Class applications, followed by the launch of Haswell 4600 family of additional options for multi-processor servers in early June. However, on July 9, QLogic reduced its June quarter guidance, noting that it was seeing weakness in the server end market. For September, Wong is also estimating more than consensus, at $14.2 billion in revenue versus the average $14.1 billion estimate.
Lastly, he expects to hear positive remarks from Intel about its forthcoming “Skylake” chip built on its 14-nanometer process technology.
This news is bringing Intel and all servers related stock.
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QLogic Plunges 23%: Bulls Stunned by Server Shortfall; Cisco, HP at Risk?
By Tiernan Ray
Shares of storage system connector maker QLogic (QLGC) are down $3.21, or 23%, at $10.77, after the stock was halted this morning before the company announced it was slashing its outlook for the June-ending fiscal Q1, citing “lower than expected demand due to general weakness in the Company’s traditional enterprise server and storage markets, and a build-up of inventory at certain of its OEM customers due to a slower next-generation server transition in enterprise environments.”
The company is a supplier to numerous firms, including Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and Cisco Systems (CSCO). The news is not affecting them, however, this morning, with HP up fractionally at $30.56, and Cisco up 0.7% at $27.17.
The company now sees revenue of about $113 million, below its previously forecast range of $124 million to $132 million, and below consensus for $128 million. EPS is seen in a range of 16 cents to 17 cents, below the prior view of 23 cents to 27 cents, and below consensus of 25 cents.
QLogic’s CEO, Prasad Rampalli, remarked that the company was “disappointed with the level of business activity during the quarter,” adding,
We will work through these headwinds, leveraging our technologies and solutions to expand our addressable market opportunities. We believe QLogic is well positioned to capitalize on these opportunities in the data center.
The company plans to discuss the quarter in greater depth on July 30th.
Bulls on the Street are a little stunned by all this, it would seem, and not entirely clear what is going on.
BMO Capital’s Keith Bachman, who has an Outperform rating on the shares, and a $15.50 price target, writes that weakness in servers is a shocker:
Unlike hard drives, in which we think most investors expect very weak results, we think most data points around servers have been ok while storage data points have been mixed, and thus we think investors were generally expecting an in-line type of June quarter from QLGC, or at least within the range.
Bachman is perplexed by the issue of inventory, and the steep, steep drop in sales:
The issue we are not clear about is the role inventory at OEMs played in the negative pre-announcement. Based on expected revenues of $113 million for the June Q, this would suggest a q/q revenue decline of 15%. While QLGC results tend to have volatile quarterly patterns, including the run off of legacy businesses, over the past four years June revenues have averaged a 1% q/q decline. Hence, our first take is that inventory reductions must have had a meaningful impact.
Raymond James analysts Mitch Steves, who has an Outperform rating on the stock, and a $17 price target, thinks this is about a breakdown in fiber channel networking
We have seen negative data points in the overall server market and think the miss is likely attributable to Fibre Channel demand. With this dynamic in mind, Ethernet revenue could increase as a percentage of total Advanced Connectivity revenue. With lower gross margins in the 40% range, we think it is prudent to anticipate EPS of $0.16 at the lower end of the recent pre-announcement.
He notes how many enterprise vendors are potentially affected:
QLGC’s top 3 customers include: HPQ 27% revenue exposure, Dell at 17% and IBM at 11% as of FY15. In addition, the Company provides solutions to Cisco, EMC, Fujitsu, Huawei, Inspur, Lenovo, NetApp and Oracle. QLGC’s top 10 customers represent 81% of total revenue and we believe this is a slight negative for companies exposure to traditional enterprise server and storage markets. Finally, Emulex is QLGC’s nearest competitor and who was recently acquired by AVGO.
Srini Nandury with Summit Research, who has a Buy rating on Logic, writes that he thinks things likely got worse in June, and that the customer that’s clearing inventory is probably Lenovo (0992HK), which has “issues in China and general weakness in Europe.” Things will get worse before they get better, he writes:
We believe the inventory build up will take at least a quarter or two to wind down and Qlogic will likely lower next quarter’s estimates well below consensus. Therefore, we expect a steep sell off of the stock and the stock could be down to $10 levels presenting an attractive buying opportunity for investors with a stomach to hang in here.
Richard Kugele of Needham & Co., who doesn’t follow QLogic, but who follows shares of customers such as Hewlett, writes that it’s not clear if this is just individual customer issues, or signs of a broader IT slowdown:
While some level of company-specific factors can’t be discounted in the pre, we believe the perception will be that this miss is a negative for x86 server players (which would include HPQ and SMCI) within our universe. In terms of HPQ, the company is the largest x86 server player in the world with over 25% market share. If the transition to Grantley is suddenly slower mid-year than some companies expected, that would be interpreted as negative for HP’s server line. Similarly, for SMCI, Grantley represented roughly 50% of shipments in the March ending quarter. A gradual increase in that percentage was expected over time (cycle typically lasts 12-18 months), particularly around the expiration of Windows 2003 Server this month. Alternate View: We note that at SNX’s recent analyst day last week, servers were cited as an opportunity given the refresh and no weakness in the business was noted. Additionally, using QLGC as a proxy for SMCI performance in recent years would have been consistently inaccurate. So data points are not all pointing in the same direction as QLGC. Is this weakness part of a broader slowdown in enterprise IT spending? Are macro concerns leading to an incremental pause as buyers wait to see if the US is impacted more directly by the mess in Europe or China? Earnings season will have to sort out these questions.
Here is another point of view on AMD warnings. This article suggests that AMD loss is at the expense of Intel gains.
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Will The Beatings At AMD Be Felt Elsewhere?
By Chris Lange July 6, 2015 5:12 pm EDT
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMD) had its shares halted in the after-hours trading session on Monday. Normally, when shares are halted in this manner the company is releasing fairly big news. In this case AMD, the company issued yet another warning to its investors regarding its upcoming earnings and revenue report.
The company announced that its revenue for the second quarter is expected to be lower than previously guided. AMD now expects this revenue to decrease roughly 8% sequentially, compared to the previous guidance of down 3%, plus or minus 3%. The reasoning behind this decrease is primarily the weaker than expected consumer PC demand.
Any time investors see weak PC demand, the first consideration is whether or not it will also hurt Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC). After all, Intel is the big cheese when it comes to processors for PCs. It turns out that AMD may just be suffering as a result of Intel rather than AMD indicating true weakness in Intel also.
AMD further said that trends have impacted its original equipment manufacturer (OEM) accelerated processing unit (APU) sales. The company expects second quarter channel sales and channel inventory reduction efforts to be in-line with the company’s plans.
Gross margin is now expected to be about 28%, compared to the previous guidance of 32%. This drop was brought about due to a higher mix of Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom segment sales and lower than anticipated Computing and Graphics segment APU unit volumes due to weaker than expected OEM PC product demand.
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the second quarter are expected to be approximately $830 million, in line with prior expectations.
So far over the past year, AMD has suffered. Within the past 52-weeks alone the stock is down roughly 42% but slightly better in 2015 as shares are only down about 5%. These earnings leave a lot to be desired for this company and the direction it is heading.
Shares of AMD closed Monday down 2.4% at $2.47 on 52-week trading range of $2.14 to $4.80. In the after-hours trading session shares were down an additional 13% to $2.14, and NASDAQ showed over 800,000 shares trading since the closing bell as of 5:10 Eastern Time. The stock has a consensus analyst price target of $2.61. AMD seems to have become the poster child of the shirts that say “The beatings will continue until morale improves.”
While this is not appearing to hurt Intel in the after-hours, 24/7 Wall St. had previously wondered if Intel investors were bracing for bad earnings. Intel shares closed Monday down 1.7% at $30.04. The stock has a consensus analyst price target of $34.37 and a 52-week trading range of $29.31 to $37.90. In the after-hours trading session shares were down 0.1% at $30.01. If AMD was a real barometer any longer, AMD’s warnings would be pressuring Intel much more than 0.1% — or even much more than just 1.0%.
Read more: Will The Beatings At AMD Be Felt Elsewhere? - Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NYSE:AMD) - 24/7 Wall St. http://247wallst.com/technology-3/2015/07/06/will-the-beatings-at-amd-be-felt-elsewhere/#ixzz3fBPWZhkw
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I know Intel has not warned but I am sure this will affect Intel earnings and outlook.
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Advanced Micro Halted, Drops 8%: Cuts Q2 Outlook on Weak PCs
By Tiernan Ray
Chip maker Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) this afternoon said its Q2 revenue will decline more than expected because of “weaker than expected consumer PC demand impacting the company’s Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) APU sales.”
AMD added “The company expects second quarter channel sales and channel inventory reduction efforts to be in-line with the company’s plans.”
Revenue is now expected to decline from Q1's level by 8%, worse than a prior forecast for revenue flat to down 6%, offered back on April 16th, which caused shares to plunge 13% the next day.
Gross margin, on a non-GAAP basis, is now expected to be 28%, below a prior forecast of 32%, it said. The company said its GAAP gross profit will be reduced by “$33 million associated with a technology node transition from 20 nanometer (nm) to FinFET. The company started several product designs in 20nm that will instead transition to the leading-edge FinFET node.”
AMD reports full results on July 16th, after market close.
AMD shares were halted just before the announcement at $2.47.
Update: The stock has resumed trading and is down 23 cents, over 9%, at $2.24.
Yes we are all biased. You hate Intel and I don't. Simple as that.
I don't need to. I know what it means. Digitimes gives one sided biased information. Mas provided you complete picture.
Great rebuttal without saying a word.
It appears that software is being defocused as Rene James is resigning. May be software should be a separate entity.