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It's funny, I've been so busy today that I hadn't looked to see what was going on. I just looked and saw that my entire seasonal portfolio is up 2.34% today.
NTAP & CUB are leading the charge followed by KG & FHRX. Nice start to the week. Let's see if it holds up.
But, there are other things to think about... the caddie is supposed to be finished today. It should come out of the shop at just under Q1,000, giving me a cost of just under Q2,500. I'm considering a paint job... maybe I'll wait until after Thanksgiving, that's when I would imagine auto painting business might be slow, between the 2 holidays. A paint job should run around 3-400, meaning I'll be under my $3,000 budget. That gives me xtra cash for fuzzy dice : ) .
Oh wait... hub caps. Boy, these heavy decisions never end.
Allan
SBUX has behaved like clockwork this month.
On the 13th & 14th it started its mid month dip. According to my silly litle charts, it should move side ways until January. But I do see that in December of 2001, the stock price took a major jump at the end of December.
So the obvious next question is...
I'm thinking of picking it up around Dec 22nd or 23rd (Mon or Tues). It was a fun trip from Sept 1 - Nov 12. I can't wait for the winter tour.
Thanks for the tix Q&K.
Allan
CUB had a strong finish today.
Welcome ratios.
Thanks for the encouraging news. It seems to be up today... so far.
Allan
I'm down 12.07% with NTAP. I'm not budging from my position. I'm holding. The quarterly numbers were too good for the stock price to stay down. Once everybody makes their money on the bottom, it will turn around. I'm not getting sucked into an ICUI situation again. I'm in until the end of December.
Allan
(resembling a confident investor)
I like the 5% pop in FHRX today.
Allan
So the NTAP price drops because they didn't exceed analyst expectations, they just met them. This market is an amazing place.
I'm inclined to believe that this drop in price will spark buying and if I hold on, I'll see the up side before the year's out.
Allan
(unusually optimistic)
The NTAP report is out.
Any word on how trading is going after hours?
Allan
I hope NTAP has better luck this week than the Redskins.
Status report...
Some are up, some are down... overall -1.18%.
NTAP, KG & FHRX are keepers until December ends. CUB will announce earning toward the end of December as I read it. Hmmmm.
Temps are plunging into the 60's down here.
Allan
I'm into FHRX... 400 @ 10.82
I'm considering selling a couple hundred shares of KG and buying into FHRX until the end of the year. FHRX seems too hot to pass on. Given its seasonal track record, it could pop again before the end of the year.
http://insider.thomsonfn.com/tfn/stocks.asp?imodule=seasonality&ticker=FHRX&ttype=A
Allan
I must have missed something because I don't know his web site address.
NTAP had an abandoned baby.
___________________________
I need some help here.
Allan
Yes, that increase just compounded what was already a good day. The weather down here is spectacular this time of year. Now, we just need CUB & KG to follow the same weather pattern as NTAP.
Allan
According to the seasonality tracker, CECO hasn't had a negative December in the past 5 years... averaging 9.5%.
Allan
CTSH reports come out on the following months...
Q1 Apr -2.7%
Q2 Jul +16.5% (6+ years to 0 negatives)
O3 Oct +27.1% (6+ to 0 negatives)
Q4 Feb +12.1% (4+ to 1 negatives)
The best month percentage-wise is December with a 30% average increase (4-1). It's right around the corner.
Allan
Yeah, I remember that FHRX ride. I held on for the entire ride down and then sold being content with a 12% gain... Little did I know...
Allan
My stop out story...
I bought ICUI at the beginning of October. The plan was to hold for October & November, then sell.
I bought in @ Q29.20. The price dropped as low as @25.35 (11/12). By that time I was out. It now sits @ Q33.18 having gone as high as Q35.35 and the month isn't over.
So it dropped aprox 13% and came back to increase as much as 21% and is currently up 13.6%. That's a heck of a rollercoaster.
Allan
Q,
I'll be back for a second cup.
I haven't firm this up in my mind yet, but I'm considering storing my quills in NTAP through the end of December, before pouring them back into SBUX in January.
SBUX, in January, has been in my plan since I bought back in September. It's the NTAP in December that I need to decide on.
I also intend on placing more beans in the grinder when it's time to brew again.
Allan
I sold SBUX (+17.5%) and bought into NTAP @ 24 quills and 19 cents or Q24.19.
Allan
Quills... I like that.
Allan
GGNS's IBD rating = B
It's funny you point this out. Just last night, I was checking out exactly that point. Here's what I found...
NTAP reports in the following months with the following seasonal price activity...
February = -2%
May= +1.1%
August= +17.2%
November= +15.9%
Here's the scoop for SBUX...
January = +5.7%
April= +2.3%
July= -4.9%
November= +2.8%
Here's the scoop for FHRX...
February = -32.4%
May= +9.6%
August= +47.4%
November= +26.2%
I have a funny feeling that that the wind has changed for FHRX. I think they showed a 10¢ profit per share this quarter. They may be a up and coming one to watch... maybe more than watch...
Allan
Sometime during this week, SBUX has to be sold. It's currently up 19 and change. The money from the sale of SBUX needs to be reinvested. Here's my thinking...
NTAP's average increases for this quarter are as follows...
October 19%
November 16%
December 27%
Looking back NTAP opened October @ 20.57 and closed the month @ 24.69. A 20% gain. Pretty much on schedule. Nice QP.
November opened @ 25.28 and is currently sitting slightly below that mark @ 24.68. Average increase of 16% hasn't even been cracked yet.
I'm gonna keep my eye on the two of them, SBUX and NTAP. If I can get a good rise out of SBUX on Monday or Tuesday, I'll sell and hop the fence to NTAP in hopes of riding a 6-7 week rise through the end of the year.
All thoughts and opinions accepted.
The SBUX shares are being held in a ROTH acct. I started the year with 3K in that account. It is currently @ 4.4K.
Allan
It appears that of the A & B rated stocks that are considered EMC's competition, the following have decent to good quarterly numbers for October, November and December...
ADIC
NTAP
LXK
I think QP all ready has two of them dog-eared.
Allan
Auto hunting season is over...
I drove down to Boca Raton this afternoon, inspected, test drove and put a deposit down on a white 1989 Cadillac Fleetwood. The auto has 86K miles. Purchase price was $1,500. It'll need a circuit board, 1 hub cap, 4 shocks, a paint job and a front end alignment. Estimated repair work including paint will be approx $900, bringing the price up to $2,400. That is right under the $2,500 limit I set for myself.
AC compressor is brand new. :)
I'll probably pick it up next Saturday unless I get the motivation to battle I-95's construction traffic during the week.
Case closed.
Allan
I set up a portfolio to track some December stocks during the month of November. I don't know how relevant the info is, but I thought it would be interesting to know. I tracked them since Monday 11/3. Here's the scoop after week 1...
ADVP -0.83%
CECO +1.08%
CTSH +3.88%
CYTC -0.70%
FHRX +43.88%
IVGN +2.08%
NTAP -0.04%
OCR -4.17%
USON -5.64%
As stated, I don't know how valuable this info is.
Allan
(Off seasonal stock topic)
I know what you mean about gas guzzlers. I currently get 16 mpg. Going for a caddie is the direction I'm moving toward. My trusted mechanic said he wouldn't take on the problems associated with mercedes. He'd have to recommend another mechanic to handle it. Not a good idea. But if a great mercedes comes along I'll pick it up.
The way I see it, to buy a new car requires 2-3K down. Sales tax will run $1,500 on a $25K vehicle and then you're tied into a $300-$400 payment every month for a few years. So, between money down $2.5k and $3,600/year in payments, it'll cost close to $6K to keep the car in my drive way for the first year. Then comes insurance. After all that, I get to save a few bucks on fuel ecomony. When I look at all that, and I look at all of it for the other cars that I own (currently 4), I have no problem picking up a car for 3K, spending $35 a week on gas (1800 a year, let's call it sales tax) and then getting rid of it after 1.5 - 2 years.
It's like owning a disposable car. What a great country!!
Allan
I'm looking for a spectacular vehicle for an inexpensive price? My wife says I'm asking for too much.
But, here in Palm Beach County, Caddies and Mercedes, in great shape, can be had for short money. They are excellent vehicles driven by older folks doing the speed limit at the most.
I had a great car, 1986 Black 300SDL, in my hands 3 weeks ago. I brought her down from $3,000, to $2,500. I thought I could get her lower, but somebody came along and scooped it right out from under my nose. Greed is the charge... GUILTY.
Today, I missed a 1986 Mercedes 300 SDL ($2,500) by 45 minutes.
I'm looking at Caddies and Mercedes. I might consider a Lincoln, I'll have to think about it.
My wife thinks I fret too much about the cars prior to buying. She says I'm too tight with money to lay down the cash and that I should go out and buy a new car. But nothing interests me... and I am enjoying the hunt.
I'm using www.autotrader.com ,the local newspaper and street side sales on the weekend.
Allan
Status Report...
November
KG- in @ 12.85/currently 13.37/ +4.02%
CUB- in @ 28.23/currently 29.75/ +5.37%
Quarterly (to be sold next week)
SBUX- in @ 27.21/currently 32.53/ +19.55%
Thanks QP for your CUB research. Hopefully, the trend will continue in this positive manner. I will follow QP's lead in staying on the high road... Sequioa Style Trading (SST).
Still haven't found a car. Tomorrow's another day.
Allan
No part of FHRX.
CUB, KG & SBUX are chugging along.
Today's FHRX headline...
First Horizon Announces Third Quarter 2003 Net Revenues of $24.7 Million and Net Income of $3.4 Million or 10 Cents Per Share.
Shares opened at $7.05 this morning. It sits at $10.05 as of 1:45 pm.
Flatliner.
EMC's competition E rating...
ALAN
AXC
CPCI
EMA
ESCC
FEP
IOM
KTCC
NWN
NSO
PTC
QBAK
SCIX
SOS
XATA
end.
EMC's competition D ratings...
BOSC
CADA
CSPI
DRXR
DSS
FBAY
GFX
GTW
ICAD
INFS
MRCY
MTIC
MXWL
NURM
OPMR
PNS
RADS
SCLD
SGI
SUNW
TDSC
ZOOM
EMC's competition C rating...
C+ rating
ALOT
CCUR
GEPT
IBM
STK
C rating
ADPT
BRCD
CREAF
IMN
PTNX
TPTI
C- rating
HYC
MCDT
MILT
SCMM
XYBR
EMC's competition B ratings...
B+ ratings
EFII
MOBE
NIPNY
RSYS
B ratings
KOMG
NWRE
STX
TACT
TRID
B- ratings
HILL
HTCH
NCR
NYFX
SBSE
EMC's competition "A" ratings...
A+ ratings
CRAY
DELL
KRON
MCRS
NSCN
QLGC
A ratings
ELX
HPQ
LOGI
LXK
MXO
NTAP
OVRL
SYNA
A- ratings
ADIC
AUO
CMNT
NENG
OMCL
WDC
ZBRA
DATA STORAGE DATA...
Top 5 IBD
NTAP A
MXO A
OVRL A
ADIC A-
WDC A-
EMC B+