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Long the open, Roy?
Went short QID 51.25 pre-open.
Can't get on the Ninja site pre-open as usual. Grrr....
Roy, didn't mean to distract your trading with my QQQQ vs NDX message.
Please feel free to ignore me any time.
Nor did I mean to imply that you are not successfully trading this etf day in and day out. You certainly are.
Let me try one more time and then I'll shut up. In the simplest terms, when I look at QQQQ and its trading volume on a chart, I have to remind myself that I am seeing only 10% of what's moving my etf price. That is, the buying and selling of my etf itself. 90% of the influence on my etf price is outside of what I am looking at. It is in the trading of INTC, CSCO, MSFT, AAPL, etc.
When I look at my chart of AAPL, otoh, I am truly seeing 90% of what is affecting its price...the actual trading in AAPL. Whereas 10% of the force is unseen to me...the trading in QQQQ.
In the end, you're probably right. I just don't matter. A purely academic point.
Have a good day!
Dave
A friend has arrived so see you guys later.
Is she cute?
Buyers are fewer to keep pushing QQQQ higher.
Roy, remember the long discussion we had on this on the Ninja board a year or so ago?
The question was: can buying and selling of QQQQ (the etf) cause the NDX to rise and fall, or do Q prices (and volume) only reflect what's happening in the individual NDX stocks?
At the time, I did the math to find that total typical QQQQ trading accounted for only about 10% of total trading in the NDX stocks themselves. While this is big for any etf (probably the biggest one in the market), the fact remains that it only has 10% influence on what Nasdaq 100 prices do.
I haven't seen anything regarding QQQQ trading since then that makes me think it has become more influential than it was a year ago.
So my basic point remains. The QQQQ reflects/measures what's happening in the NDX. It does not cause the NDX to rise or fall.
To expand this idea then, QQQQ volume does not "push" prices higher. Rather, QQQQ prices (and volume?) are "sucked up" by buying in the Nasdaq 100 stocks. (Um...I think.)
Again, I see these as "90% true" statements, not absolutes. I'm sure there are days when Q volume represents a higher percentage of the NDX market and could have a bigger influence on the index.
Farooq, I'll add my response to the others.
Definitely keep posting your intraday signals. It helps us working stiffs to see what the guys who are making a living at this are doing at any given time.
Interesting how positive yesterday and the day before looked intraday at times, but on a daily chart, we have only a continued narrowing of the converging triangle, with a steeper slope on the upper (lower highs) line. It's hard to imagine how this is going to have a positive (rally) resolution.
I'm talking about NDX and COMPX above. You could argue that the higher lows line looks stronger on the SPX and NYA.
I-Hub unavailable at the time.
Had the same problem, Roy. Got some message saying to contact Meatball? (Meathead? Meatloaf?) Somebody like that.
Stopped out of QID short 51.65.
(Just a few minutes later.)
Delayed post, sorry.
Sure wish I could've held it now...with a looser stop. Damn.
Anybody see what that 2:30 pop was about?
Short QID here @ 51.55.
A little late in the bounce. And I'm worried with volume falling off that the market can't make much more up move today.
Out of QID short 53.25 for fraction loss.
Why not 12k shares, Farooq? Cuz my fraction loss would've been 6 times as big just now. I didn't have that level of conviction that the market was going to bounce.
And I'm really not able to pay close attention here like the rest of you. I'm working and keeping one eye on the market when I can. Almost always have to rely on stop market orders.
Sounds like traders have seen plenty of false long signals today.
Looks like if we get a bounce into the close today, it won't start til at least 2:30, maybe 3:00...if at all.
Short QID 53.09
Single position size, 2k shrs.
Tight stop.
Today is a different kind of day than we've seen recently. Leading stocks are being hammered again, like what happened during the first plunge and then the bottom test. The D-List is down twice as hard as the broad market.
Skip, just curious as to why you trade Q's rather than QID or QLD?
With these etfs, you get twice the move for the same money.
I am not very intelligent person so take my views with grain of salt.
Farooq, pul-leeeze!
Forget for a moment that we all know you're a genius from your trading, that MD is awarded only to the most intelligent, driven and hard working people. Don't insult our intelligence!
Skip, good to see you here...
Looks like we're keeping the topic limited to trading the market and market direction rather than individual stocks. Still wish we had a reliable and private place to do it all.
To whom is this reality new?
Other than me, I guess you're asking?
How about everybody who's selling below the rising wedge line?
I still have a hard time believing we're in for a serious leg down right now because the weekly index charts and the breadth charts are still so oversold.
Well, the market was oversold, but now worse news is hitting, right? The market crashed based on financials fears, housing fears, and recession fears. Since then, the news has only gotten worse (we're almost certainly in a recession now and the financial/housing mess ain't bottomed yet). I wouldn't be surprised to see an extended oversold condition as the market prices in the new reality. The market has to see the light at the end of the 6-9 mo tunnel before it turns for good. I don't think there's a photon showing yet.
"I assume you mean we're about to test the lows we reached 5 days ago"
Yes. Not cycle work per se. Just that we're taking out recent support parallel line support and violating the rising edge of the converging wedge here. Both bearish signals, right?
You've been predicting lower lows soon, right Paul?
Wrong! Out 52.35.
Wait a bit, Dave.
Short QID 52.27
Stuck my neck out, but keeping stop very tight. Signal is not real strong, but the time of day is right. $TRIN looking toppy.
Market is about to test 5 day lows.
Today's candle is violating that rising wedge line thingy, Roy, Farooq.
Resolution down?
Silver lining is volume is low so far. Easily turned by a little buying.
Roy, in Farley's book, he's done research on converging patterns which agrees with your observation. The key factor seems to be time. Successful breakouts from converging patterns happen sooner rather than later. Before or at the point of convergence. On Farooq's chart, this means that the breakout (up or down) must happen in the next 3 days before the blue lines meet. If it does happen in that time, it usually results in fast and extended move out of the pattern. If it doesn't happen in that time, it's going rangebound, and Farley says look elsewhere for a trade.
Took 50.90 for my QID for +1.6%.
FYI for this board, I'm working with a $300k trading account which I split into 3-$100k "positions". I rarely use margin.
That trade was a single position, so ~ +$1.6k.
Gotta work...see ya's later.
I'd expect Q's 43.9 would be the tough nut today...
based on that support/resistance thang, Roy.
And I do understand the option leverage quick trigger thang, Roy. Just don't usually have time to participate.
Nice! If 43.9 is taken out, next stop is 43.6.
(Any intraday trading I do is usually while watching 2 day 5 min streaming charts.)
"I'm more of a support and resistance levels guy"
Yep, we had a few minutes pause at yesterday's hod, then a break below. Now testing yesterday's close.
You got your 10ema break, fast.
Break-fast.
Ha ha.
Anyway, I won't miss a 2nd opp for a quick profit here (with QID).
You guys are quicker on the trigger than me.
I missed taking the first profit offered at QID 50.4 or so. My stop held so far, but I'm going to have to tighten it up (near the 10:20 bounce) as I head off to work.
Counter trend trading ain't really my thing, but it seemed like the best opp this morning given the gap up open and the market's reticence to head straight up out of this rolling bottom.
Long QID 50.09
Had a buy stop in waiting for the delayed opening fade.
Farooq, too bad your pretty chart at the top ("iBox") couldn't be set for real time refreshing.
Assume you're fading the opening gap-up as usual, Roy?
Meanwhile, yesterday's positive reversal on volume looked pretty bullish.
The 2nd higher low (on the daily) is starting to look like a new price channel.
If we are indeed in a new extended rally, we won't be able to complain that the market didn't give enough time to get back in. (Talking about long term positions here.)
Paul, Roy, Farooq, thanks for the welcome.
I've had a free membership at iHub for a very long time having participated or lurked on several boards over the years. In fact, when I tried to login yesterday and couldn't remember my password, I was startled when I got the email with my ex-wife's name in the password. Yikes!
I too won't post here much because of my current work schedule, but when I take a QID or QLD position, I'll try to get it on here. Plus, the access to the Ninja site has been a continuous source of frustration for me. Seems like most of the times I have the time or inclination to post something, the damn server won't respond.
"What kind of chip you got in there, a Dorito?"
Farooq, Roy, so this is where you're hiding out!
Mind if I join you?
Dave
PS: Did anybody note what caused the noon spike today?