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How did you learn that 113 is in the Phase 11 portion of the trial?
Barry
Do you think he is referring to "113"?
On the Esmo website, Scientific Chairman Josep Tabernero, in highlighting a few of the more important abstracts, refers to
"study results offering for the first time directions on how to treat patients with a certain EGFR mutation"
I sure hope he is referring to 113, but if any on the board have any idea about what he is referring to, please share it with us.
Go to the ESMO site, click on "Press" and read what abstracts he is highlighting.
Barry
Please read it again
The patent you show us is for the stem cells "in the treatment of cancer" Pluristem is not using them for that purpose.
JMHO
Barry
Not only does Harvey know the data, AJ.
But you can bet that waiting on Harvey's desk, every morning, is an update of the 113 clinical trial data. Keep in mind that this is not a blinded trial, so the data is available immediately and I am certain that someone from Ariad is in charge of collecting the data and reporting the same to Harvey on a daily basis.
JMHO
Barry
Perhaps
Perhaps this is the way the FDA is saying;
"Ponatinib treats every mutation, so there is really no need to differentiate between them"
JMHO
Barry
Comment on the insider sales
I recall that about a week ago, last Sunday to be exact, Micanwait brought to our attention some insider sales and asked for our comments, and in fact a few posters made some comments and sort of sounded a bit concerned.
Well, low and behold, Ariad responded with it's own comment...a rise of $1.15 in the value of it's shares in just 4 days of trading (Monday being a holiday) . In fact, that was one of Ariad's best weekly (or 4 days to be precise) performances this year.
Bottom line is that some occasional sales of their shares (and they hold a truckload) does not concern me.
Onward and upward Ariad
As usual, this is JMHO
Barry
Your welcome Rum
Close
Let me preface my statement by revealing that I am a tax attorney, former IRS agent and have been practicing tax law for over 40 years.
To avoid any penalty for under estimating your taxes, you must have at least 110% of the prior year's taxes, paid in in either withholding, and or estimated taxes. If you do, then there is absolutely no penalty for any amount that is under estimated.
Barry
ESMO Abstract Releases
The Esmo abstracts will be released on Monday September 17th and will appear on ESMO's website.
In addition, lets hope (as Ariad has achieved before, at other major conferences) that Ariad's 113 abstract, is selected for the official ESMO press conference.
Barry
C'est le Contraire, my dear 2da
"Not as enthusiastic"? You certainly was not listening to the same conference I just listened to. I have never heard HB describe Pona is such glowing terms, as he did today.
And if you know Harvey Speak, you learned today that the Pona results about to be presented at ASCO, will show, as it happened in Phase 1, the longer the patients were on the drug, the better the response. The six month results will be better than the 3 month results reported at ASH.
HB also said that he will expound on 113 at the 1Q conference
JMHO
Barry
That caught me by surprise as well. I am especially surprised that Harvey never mentioned any Phase 3 for Rida.
Barry
ASCO abstracts public release date
Except for late breaking abstracts, the ASCO abstracts will be releassd to the public (abstract.asco.org) at 6PM on May 16th 2012
Can we listen to it online?
The FDA Panel
What time is tomorrow's FDA Panel meeting?, and is it available on the Web?
Thanks in advance
Barry
AACR
Can anyone supply a list of the presentations and posters involving either Ponatinib or 113, scheduled for the AACR meeting (3/31-4/4)
Thanks in advance
Barry
IS "113" working?
Well, if you listened to yesterday's conference, HB, in effect, answered that $64,000 question, with a resounding YES.
Towards the end of the conference, when discussing "113" , HB said, and I quote, "we are "beginning to accumulate exciting data on this drug". That statement can only mean one thing, and as the ring announcer always says "lets get ready to rumble".
As usual this is JMHO
Barry
113 has been in the clinic three weeks short of six months (since 9/21/11)
In response to the question you posed
Put me in the over $20 a share list
Barry
When you do, please be kind enough to let us know.
Barry
Gleevec gets FDA approval
The FDA approved a label update for Gleevec to treat GIST (Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumors)
Perhaps it is yet another indication for Pona?
Barry
I have been an investor since about 1995
No one has ever made a public offer to buy the company.
Barry
March FDA Panel
Can someone please explain what will happen on March 20th, at this meeting?
Is this the day that the panel will make it's recommendation to the FDA?
Is this the day that the members of the panel each express their views of the drug?
Thanks in advance for any response
Barry
Could not find Haluska's remarks.
Could you give me a better link, or summarize?
Thanks, Barry
Yes he did. Listen carefully to his "No more partnerships" conference.
Let's guess at the next Ariad news
My guess is either
1- Start of a Phase11 in AML (Ponatinib)
2- Announcement of preclinical studies of a new molecule (our 5th drug)
As usual JMHO
Barry
I believe that yesterday's high ($14.76) was the highest it has been since the year of 2000.
Barry
Rachel
Now that Ariad's bank accounts are looking a lot more robust, and the company continues to move towards it's goals, it may be just about the right time for Rachel (Merrill) to weigh in with an upgrade. I believe that the next time we hear from Rachel, her target price will be north of her previous ones.
As usual JMHO,
Barry
Not at all
It merely means that Ariad only get a piece of the sales and profits (Royalties) as Merck and Bellicum own the commercial rights. This is aside from the equity interest Ariad has in Bellicum and Milestone payments on both drugs.
JMHO,
Barry
I Read Between the Lines
After listening to today's presentation for a second time, but now in the comfort of my home and with no interruptions, I was able to read between the lines and realized that Harvey was telling us something that we all wanted to know.
Allow me to first give you statements from the presentation, that easily led me to the realization as to what Harvey was telling us:
1- In the next few months we will be setting up a foreign office in Switzerland.
2- We believe that the 113 Phase 1/2 "will move forward quickly'
3- "Ponatinib and 113 form the foundation for the future of the company".
4- There will be "multiple near term value drivers for both Ponatinib and 113. I won't go into details"
I am sure that many of you by now also realize that Harvey was telling us that 113 is enrolling quickly and showing efficacy and that he was confident of it's eventual approval. "I won't go into details", certainly tells us that he does have details. Having dosed the first patient on September 21, 2011, I believe that by now they have some feedback on efficacy, even though it may be very early data.
To me, this presentation sounded noticeably different than his usual presenation in that it seemed he was talking to the Ariad shareholders, not the JP Morgan clients. A few examples as to whay I got this impression are as follows:
1- After the usual opening remarks and the obligatory forward looking statements disclosure, his opening remark was, "No more partnerships". I can't think of any other group, except we shareholders, that that statement was meant for, or would have as much meaning and importance.
2- I don't recall Harvey ever being so transparent on discussions about Ariad's strategy, at any prior conference, except annual meetings and quarterly shareholder conferences. He sure sounded like he was talking to us shareholders.
3- Substituting his usual professor like discussion of the drugs and diseases we ae targeting, with a fairly in depth (for Harvey)discussion of the market for Ponatinib.
As usual JMHO,
Barry
Immediate reaction
Harvey's confidence level spoke volumes.
Harvey just about told us that a new molecule, to treat resistance in other cancer indications, will be introduced this year. Would any of the scientists on the board care to take a guess as to which indication?
By offfering compassionate use throughout the world, Harvey is accomplishing the following:
1- Creating a relationship with oncologists outside of the USA and Europe.
2- Building a worldwide market for Ponatinib, so that we will be up and running from day one of the approval.
I may have some other comments after I listen the the preentation again tonight.
As usual, this is JMHO,
Barry
Not Sure
gym:
I am not sure that the February earnings report will be a "no news" affair.
There are several items that could come about in that time frame, including , but not limited to, commencement of new clinical trials. Let's see how things play out in the remainder of Jan and the beginning of Feb before we pronounce a "no news" earnings report event. Harvey does favor making some announcement before the market opening on "earnings report" days.
JMHO,
Barry
Volume
Please note the less than average volume as Aria retreats today. I am also of the opinion that Ariad's pps trading pattern is becoming a bit more predictable. Though I do not expect any new pronouncements at today's conference (HB never uses these conferences to announce any news) but perhaps, like in the recent past, we can pick up some important information on "direction" from how Harvey delivers his message today. I believe it has become a bit easier to read between the lines at Harvey's presentations, measured by what he emphasises and the subtle differences in the present presentation vs the past several presentations. Of course, you will have had to listen carefully to the last few, in order to pick up on the changes, etc. Harvey's confidence level is another clue.
As usual this is JMHO,
Barry
Some Suggestions:
1- Date Aria files an NDA for Pona
2- Date Aria presents or announces interim results for 113
3- Date Aria commences the following Phase 1 trials
a- Pona in Japan
b- Head to head against Gleevec
4- Will Aria partner Pona in Asia in 2012? and if yes give the date
5- Profit or loss in 2012 and state amount
6- Will anyone make an offer to buy Aria in 2012, and if yes, who and at what price
7- What will the pps be on the following dates:
a- 3/31/12
b- 6/30/12
c- 9/30/12
d- 12/31/12
8- Will Aria announce a new molecule in 2012, and if yes, for what specific disease, or pathway
9- Will Bellicum file an IPO in 2012, and if yes, at what price.
Barry
Actually
Actually I am looking for two more, and a $50 closing price on 12/31/13.
Thanks Gym
In fact in the past three years Ariad's pps has risen as follows:
2009 Up 180%
2010 Up 111%
2011 Up 140%
From 1/5/09 to 12/31/11 Ariad is up 1,325% (.86 to 12.26)
Can we squeeze another more than double in 2012 ?????????
Slight Correction
Ariad actually rose by 140%, not 135% for 2011. It opened January 1, 2011 @ $5.10 not $5.20
Can Ariad Repeat?
On January 1, 2011 the Dow opened at 11,578 and on 12/31/2011 the Dow closed at 12,218. So the Dow rose just 5.5% for the year
On January 1, 2011 Ariad opened at $5.20 a share and Friday Ariad closed at $12.26 a share. That represents a whopping 135% increase for the year.
Why did Ariad beat the Dow so handidly?
In 2011, Ariad beat the Dow so handidly by accomplishing the following:
1- They announced that Ridaforolimus met it's endpoint in the Phase 111 trial
2- They announced very good results in Phase 1 in Ponatinib
3- They commenced a Phase 1/2 clinical trial in AP26113
4- They announced very good interim results in Ponatinib Phase 11
5- Bellicum announced good progress on their Prostrate Cancer Vacine, which utilizes Ariad's AP1903
5- Bellicum announced spectacular results for it's Graft Vs Host disease product candidate, which also utilizes AP1903
6- Merck filed an NDA with the FDA and the equivalent with the European Agency and both applications were acccepted
7- The FDA listed June 4th 2012 as the determination date for the Ridaforolimus NDA
8- Ariad successfully raised $254,000,000 through a secondary, and probably told Wall Street that it intends to keep complete ownership and control of both Ponatinib and AP26113.
This Dow vs Ariad financial result comparison reminds me of something "The Babe" once said in an interview. I believe it was in 1927, when "The Babe" hit 60 homeruns and was being paid the then incredible salary of $100,000 a year, a newcaster said to Ruth: Do you know that you are making more money that the President of The United States? Babe responded "I should, I am having a better year"
Now let's see if Ariad can repeat
113
Now that we are a little more than 3 months into the trial, has anyone seen or heard anything from any patients, relating to whether or not 113 is working, or it's side effects?
The only information that I have found is that quite a few NSCLC patients have been talking about trying to get into the trial and that their oncologists have discussed 113 with them.
Barry