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Good point-minimal June options volume-and yes, October concentration is pretty impressive
That's interesting!...Options factor...NTRP Max Pain is $7.50 for Jun 21.
http://maximum-pain.com/options/max-pain/
Well, what you've got now(at about 7.30) looks a lot like a cup and handle that started to form in Oct 2018-not perfect, but since NTRP isn't really overbought, the prospect for a run up into the Rs certainly exists...
All I know is, if they want my shares, they'll have to do a lot more "skipping" than that!
However, having said that, I think it's also clear that, as a near term investment, NTRP is head and shoulders above AVXL for the obvious and all important reason that bryostatin is the only drug which has demonstrated actual improvement.
If confirmed, near term, that will, imo, be all that counts!
I'm with you on this one reds-AVXL isn't necessarily a scam just because it's current efficacy falls short(apparently way short) of NTRPs.
I haven't really read that report, but I think it's clear that even if we get solid confirmation in August, bryostatin isn't likely to turn out to be the whole story in term of AD Tx.
Combo therapies are ultimately what you would reasonably expect and AVXL's drug(s) may end up being of significant value in that regard down the line.
I need to read the AVXL report
Ray-Could you provide the translation of that SI message(I'm not a member)?
TIA
Not my experience in oncology...usually a matter of a week or two at most...which only makes sense since to withhold material information like that for a longer period only invites fraud.
Is NTRP twitter from an official source?
Because, my experience is, once they have the info, it's material, so COs are generally required to provide at least the top line quickly without too much dithering.
Hey runncoach- Are you aware of any more authoritative info than clninicaltrials.gov(July 30,2019)date on when we can expect trial results?
Did anyone verbally update at a presentation, etc.?
Thanks,
BW
Major AXSM Investor-Hi! I'm new to this board, but I think your logic is much more valid than the reverse. Although it's true there are very few ASXMs(my largest position by far(Avg price/$3.5)), anyone who has looked at this data should recognize that it's extremely compelling, and an excellent risk reward.
The reason the price is so volatile is that most people routinely write off all Alzheimer plays out of hand(due to the history of failures), and haven't even looked(much like the skepticism surrounding all CNS indications-think AXSM).
Therefore, most of the current action here is dominated by small time technical traders and true believers that have their confidence easily shaken because they don't really know enough to evaluate the data or know what to believe. In addition, the float is so small, that it would be impossible for an institution to accumulate a significant position, so they don't even bother to look. Which of them would be interested in what they perceive to be a failed oncology stock trying to resurrect itself as an Alzheimer's co that's been in chronic decline for the last 5 years???
Therefore, what we're seeing here is in all probability a repeat of the April selloff, which is likely to be a short-lived test of the 200ma, because, despite it's speculative nature, people like myself(with resources)are hanging out waiting to either create new positions or add to existing ones on the cheap.
Since I believe the chances of success are extremely high for all the reasons exhaustively examined here, I've accumulated a rather larger position at about $6.50/share Avg.
In addition, if it continues to drop, I'll be adding to what I consider to be by far the best Alzheimer's play out there, at these ridiculously low prices.
Therefore, to answer the original question, I expect there will be a significant price appreciation going into trial results, because, despite all the headwinds noted above, word (of this sort of rare opportunity) does eventually leak out!
Peter French on Arrowhead's Hepatitis B Results(in case you haven't seen this):
http://blt.live.irmau.com/IRM/ShowDownloadDoc.aspx?SiteId=421&AnnounceGuid=378ea0cf-4c83-4b4e-b2f4-b255b1bedb13
Regards all(fellow bag-holders?),
bw
"very tough trial"?
Not sure what you mean Master? How so?
We're still waiting to see if the primary endpoint is ORR or PFS-obviously ORR preferred-but, is there anything else you're focused on that would present difficulty?
Thanks,
bw
Got it-Thanks!
Re:$TGTX 1202/1101 SPA
Not aware that we've ever seen such a 2in1 SPA,Dew.
Have you?
If nothing else, this puts the FDA's impression of the importance of these drugs, and, their perceived therapeutic value, into perspective.
In addition, I would think this would give a lot of chronic TGTX doubters pause, and cause them to reconsider TGTX's larger prospects as a prospective giant in B-cell therapy.
Best,
bw
I'm not really that concerned-I'm still holding all my shares in BNIKF for reasons I stated a few months ago-just curious about the delay.
But thanks for your insights Blane...
What's the source of your information(aside from fact that there's no obvious listing news)Blane?
Maybe they decided it was wise to postpone in view of such a weak biotech mkt...If so, who knows for how long...
Hi Blane-
I don't think there's much question Benitec will be selling all the shares they can(up to IPO limit announced), because it would be foolish of them not to get all the money they can.
Therefore, I believe what existing shareholders have to hope for is that the hunger for shares will be so great, that the price will skyrocket, so that the dilution that will be occurring will be shortly outpaced by the increase in net market capitalization.
For that, we will need to see an explosion(either immediately, or over time(more likely, since it is, after all,summertime))comparable to that for COs like BLUE(which Panno alluded to).
I personally believe this is possible/probable over time, but as to what will happen tomorrow, it's very hard to say...
In any event, it's probably too late to get out today in any volume(at a reasonable price), so there's really little to do for significant holders such as myself but watch, wait, and hope for the best))
Best regards,
bw
New(Twitter-listed)SA Article on Benitec/Blue
Bill Miller ?@BillMiller32 · 5m5 minutes ago
$BTEBY $BNIKF $BLUE Benitec And Bluebird Bio, Gene Therapy Coming Of Age? http://seekingalpha.com/article/3305065-benitec-and-bluebird-bio-gene-therapy-coming-of-age?app=1&auth_param=vvmh:1aplaui:87075b472ef48a60e35464d040f9e539&uprof=44 … …
Best regards all,
bw
Good luck with that...
because I think the only way you'll get that fill is if either the entire market collapses, or, BTEBY/BNIKF &/or partners fail in some major way(e.g. some significant toxicity occurs).
Prefer to think we don't see the former, and, if we see the latter,
I wouldn't be interested in investing in Benitec anyway))
Re:Exciting times right now for Benitec holders!
No doubt-by the time they get to cohort 3, we may all find that concerns about reaching that $5 level in either variety of stock have become mute, lol...
More seriously,I'm in here with a significant position at about.96, but I knew it might be a long term proposition, so that's fine.
Looking for some fireworks here in the days ahead...
Best all,
bw
I doubt that-it is the direct company stock in the US-could you provide a link?
Platform(BTEBY vs BNIKF)Investing Note...
Hey guys(gals?), Although I understand why Benitec established the ADR(to provide another vehicle for US investment long term, and, to get over the $5 limit faster),
due to the extra expenses associated with ADRs, I've avoided this one, and if you've checked out both volume in it(barring today), but more importantly, relative 5 to 1 value,it seems to me(as I expected), that the BNIKF variety has held it's value better than BTEBY.
After all, BTEBY is just a repackaging of 5 BNIKF shares, so there is a carrying cost for that, and the shareholders pay it in the form of annual fees, and sales fees.
In addition, I think the bottom line is, when/if Benitec hits it big, and the stock goes to another exchange(e.g. the Nasdaq), the transfer fee, if any, will be the same for both the BTEBY and BNIKF variants, so obvious question is, why pay the extra freight in the time being?
That's why I think a lot of investors familiar with ADRS, despite what has been said on this board(& despite what the company has been saying)have not transitioned to the ADR, which is why it's relative value is generally lower.
E.G.(today-notice the relative bid prices ->.661 vs 3.260->indicates value of BNIKF is (5x .661)=3.305, vs 3.260 .
So, and this is, of course, just my opinion, BNIKF appears to be the better value->which why I'm holding it exclusively.
Best regards,
bw
BENITEC ANNOUNCES PUBLICATION
http://blt.live.irmau.com/IRM/ShowDownloadDoc.aspx?SiteId=421&AnnounceGuid=58931377-9b82-4ad2-a5b7-2658aabfb86f
Regards all,
bw
Re: CS on TGTX(TG Therapeutics)
CS stated:
Actually,the Investor Presentation was so awful, in terms of audio quality, that they may have taken it down(for repairs? lol).
This is the only link:
http://www.investorcalendar.com/event/173465
Re:TGTX’s competition (Rituxan + Ibruvica):
Dew, these are the same results,(88%ORR),TGTXs 1101/Imbruvica combo in MCL generated in 5months, while R/Imbruvica required 11 average.
http://ir.tgtherapeutics.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=886613
Therefore, though the numbers are currently small,since it's likely Imbruvica's performance will improve outcomes over time, it's very probable TGTXs combo will yield even better results eventually.
In addition, the more rapid response probably suggests a deeper one which should also contribute favorably to more enduring responses.
BTW, we learned the importance of deeper initial responses to durability of response with Ariad's Iclusig. The important difference here is that response depth isn't associated with increased toxicity. Infact, efficacy, toxicity, and administration characteristics are generally a little to a lot better with TG-1101 than Rituxin, while 1101 administration characteristics(i.e.shorter infusion times) appear better than Gazyva.
So, at the moment, this "competition" looks to be to TGTXs advantage.
Best regards,
bw
TGTX/$25/Too Conservative...
1)Agreed(because data is, so far, living up to expectations referred to in previous post):
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=108704574
2)Would add that potential of TGR-1202 combo with carfilzomib (Kyprolis)in MM looks like another big catalyst going forward(Note Future Direction):
http://www.tgtherapeutics.com/ASH20141202PreclinSat.pdf
3)And then there's the IRAK program
Note 2) & 3) not part of any modeling to date.
Meanwhile, we are still waiting on major data regarding 1101/Ibrut combo,1202/1101 combo,& a handful of 1202/1101/Ibrut triple combo pts.
Therefore, most of the perceived important data is yet to be released.
Best regards,
bw
TGTX/$45 per share?
That's about right Kris.
Although I understand it may sound extreme, if you accept(as I do)the premise that TGTXs drugs are both BIC, and that TGR-1202, their PI3Kdelta, is additionally likely to expand the functional range of it's class due to dramatically increased exposure potential relative to all previous PI3Ks that were always limited by toxicity concerns, then this contention may not seem so extreme.
I'd suggest the reason the current valuation is so low(despite the recent increases)is because most of the market has yet to really pay attention. But I think, as does the SA author, that with the ASH data, that should start to change pretty rapidly.
It's understandable that the analysts of many of the larger brokerages, who get all their investment banking revenue from covering larger biotech and pharma companies, aren't in any rush to acknowledge the success of their clients up and coming competitors(e.g.TGTX), that is until data inevitably forces them to:)
However, when the tide does inevitably shift, it usually does so rather quickly, because no one wants to look like they were asleep at the wheel.
Therefore, assuming the data holds up, as(to me)looks likely, TGTXs Mkt Cap could climb rapidly via a series of large brokerage initiations and price upgrades.
And ASH may just get this ball rolling...
Regards,
bw
TGTX/In Reply to Latest SA Article:
TG Therapeutics: Upcoming Data At ASH Conference Could Double Share Price
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2725025-tg-therapeutics-upcoming-data-at-ash-conference-could-double-share-price?app=1&uprof=44#comments_header
Hi Scott,
Very much enjoyed and appreciated the article, and, as a very large shareholder, I'm a little jealous I didn't write it myself:)
Nevertheless, I have a few reservations:
1)As you acknowledged, the pipeline chart significantly understates the extent of individual drug and overall program development. So, I wish you had either skipped it, or provided one which was more representative, if only because people who scan these things may miss the qualifications.
2)More importantly, I believe you may have (perhaps grossly) underestimated the value of TGR-1202 regarding current and potential marketcap.
This is because, as I am sure you are well aware, an MTD, due to the absence of liver or other significant toxicity seems nowhere in sight, despite the heightened exposure facilitated by the 1200mg fed/micronized formulation.
Seeing as one would expect some signs of such to have appeared over the last 1 & 1/2years of therapy if significant liver tox was going to be a problem(as with all other PI3Ks to date), and, seeing as there's every reason to believe that 1202 has a lot further to go regarding higher dosages before an MTD is reached, it seems likely that, in addition to becoming the best in class PI3K medication, 1202 may very well expand the potential of the entire class which has, up until now, been limited by just these toxicity issues.
Therefore, although I realize it's currently difficult to put a dollar value on this characteristic, I wish you had at least alluded to it.
Of course, regarding 1202 valuation, the other more obvious problem, from my POV, is that if INFIs clearly lower potential drug(Duvelisib) got a $805ml valuation, even at this early stage, how did you come up with a valuation of only $200-$300ml for 1202?
Knowing what we know about both drugs, I just find it hard to imagine that 1202 could be valued less than Duvelisib.
Therefore, assuming I agree with the rest of your valuation metrics, I would put current value at about (1101 800ml+ 1202 800ml)+93ml cash=approx.1.7bl, and, assuming ASH data is as expected, post ASH valuation (1101 1.2bl+ 1202 900ml)+93ml cash=approx.2.2bl.
Like yourself, I have been, and continue to be very impressed with the vision and leadership of Michael Weiss & Co.
Thanks for taking the time to do such a thorough review of the company.
Regards,
bw
2 Dec, 07:28 PM
Could you provide a link to slide #45 referred to?
Thanks,
bw
Re:TGTX/PCYC/CELG...
Ok. So it(the alleged fraud slide)does exist.
However, since CRG wasn’t providing any reference for it, & TGTX IR didn’t seem to recognize it, I concluded it didn’t.
Additionally, you would think anyone alleging fraud would select a more updated data source (I count 11 presentations since ASH2013) to make his case, and, to be able to reference it when questioned.
Since he also doesn’t provide the calculations which presumably justify his allegations, and he appears to totally ignore the effect of the new micronized fed formulation on projected exposure levels, efficacy, etc., not to mention the issue of relative toxicity(i.e. his research isn’t very thorough), I still find it hard to understand why you guys are taking him as seriously as you are.
His suggestion that iNHL & MCL should show greater activity (both of which show a significant amount, though only 1PR) also isn’t compelling, because we have no information on how long these pts have been treated at this dose level, and therefore, no basis on which to judge how those responses compare to Idel. & IPI-145.
However, since ASH 2014 Abstracts are only about 2 weeks away, whether any of CRGs TGTX assertions are plausible should be clarified very soon.
At the least, I expect they'll have our attention;)
RE:TGTX IR response
Thanks Ross...
Three things stand out to me on the basis of this correspondence.
1)Slide #16, used in the CRG piece, was tampered with, which blocked critical info regarding TGTXs projections(i.e.estimates) comparing Idelalisib vs TGR-1202 potential exposure levels.
2)These projections were based on early results seen with their new micronized fed formulation of TGR-1202.
3)Assuming these projections, & the continuation of a favorable TGR-1202 tox profile hold up over time, these suggest much higher exposure &(possibly/probably)efficacy levels than possible with Idel.
So where is there any "fraud"..., except in terms of the gross mischaracterizations that are evident in CRG's "free" materials???
Regards,
bw
RE:TGTX/CRG(Jason Chew note)
RE:RE:TGTX> CRG neg post..
RE:TGTX> CRG neg post..
One of the most incompetent pieces of bashing I've seen lately.
Check out the original source of the charts displayed((http://wsw.com/webcast/rrshq24/tgtx/) see specifically Slide #16),
and you'll notice they've been grossly altered to misrepresent, and, apparently, serve the incoherent "logic" of this author...
btw, I'm assuming this is where he got these charts, but not certain b/c he doesn't provide references.
Pure Trash Bash!
Regards,
bw
Regen BioPharma Inc. Files IND Application With FDA for dCellVax Breast Cancer Immune Therapy(not sure if this was posted)-
using Benitec licensed RNA interference technology:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/regen-biopharma-inc-files-ind-162804239.html
Regards,
bw
TGTX/TGR-1202/PT$22(from $19)/Too Conservative?
What's particularly encouraging about this PT upgrade(re: TGR-1202, TGTXs PI3Kdelta inhibitor), is that it's predicated on projected CLL revs only,
while we know there's a whole range of other potential B-cell applications(eg. MCL), not to mention a much wider range of potential applications for this high dose, very low tox PI3K in other cancer sectors, as well(where the toxicity of previous PI3Ks limited the use of this class)...
Once it's approved for any use, these other potential applications should receive rapid attention,
and the obvious result should be a proportional(and likely rapid) increase in TGTXs overall market cap.
Therefore, when you bear in mind the above, plus all the other synergies(plus buyout potential)of TGTXs programs, this PT(despite the raise) appears to me to be a little conservative.
Regards,
bw