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I used to do the same, many moons ago... I worked in the Crescent city in the black building with the odd angled roof. Most of my work had me flying out of Morgan City.
Contact me at this user name @yahoo.com if you want to trade stories.
I can see ERF hitting the gulf shallows with a network. There are plenty of platforms within reach of the mainland with a little help of some MBT equipment mounted to pilings to rely signals. Wouldn't you agree?
Have a good one... hitting the road for the rest of the day... no action here.
A1
No congrats needed until I sell them for over a buck or two... and even then, no congrats is needed; instead, you will want to thank me for paying a huge chunk of taxes to help out Uncle Sam with this deficit.
A1
Oil prices are up and the North American rig count is up... these are two keys to ERFW's success matrix.
Rig Count... Read and pay close attention to this quote from the second paragraph in the overview.
"...Rig Counts are an important business barometer for the drilling industry and its suppliers. When drilling rigs are active they consume products and services produced by the oil service industry. The active rig count acts as a leading indicator of demand for products used in drilling, completing, producing and processing hydrocarbons."
Connect the dots and then you will see the big picture.
A1
So you want one prediction that has come true... So far, not one significant money making prediction has come true...doesn't that help you... Not one yet. But, I have always put my money where my mouth is on this one... and I keep trying... this has been the best fishing trip I have every been on... I have more shares at a lot lower average price ... the business plan is solid... the company has more traction and now it has $3M to spend growing the business into a cash cow... the penny stock phase is coming to its last chapters... CFP is just around the corner; so I feel real good about where I am and where this company is going.
Predictions are like betting on football games... you get some right and you get some wrong. The difference here is... this game isn't over. So far, the only sore losers are the ones that bailed out before the game is over.
What have you been doing during the last 2 years? If you lost your gerbil, I had nothing to do with it... the frog probably ate it. If you lost money here, it isn't in my wallet.
Nice user name... you must have some chip on your shoulder. Too bad because life isn't a dress rehearsal.
A1
Check out the price of oil today... nice one day gain.
Only 5 more trading days in February... will we get more news? Or is February going to be a dud?
I keep thinking about DC's comment about a new division... does it make sense to open a new one before the O&G division has more traction and momentum? If the company were clearly CFP, I'd be all for it.
When are they going to put a MBT counter on the website so we can see the increase in activity?
Looking forward to the 10k... the timer is counting down.
A1
Here is my answer... as to why ERF went to 4.1 in late January.
I believe it was the result of new money getting in... more specifically, it was the newbies that follow the penny stock picker websites. Once the momentum slowed and the "featured stock" hype discontinued, ERF's PPS retreated just as quickly but not to the previous lows. We have established this strong base here in the mid to upper 2s.
Now it is my theory that the trend will continue here soon. We will see several penny stock pickers highlight ERF and new names will appear again.... hopefully with a few new PRs and some more newbies here, the PPS will start its slow and steady march to the north.
I suspect that the next base will be in the 4's and then in the 6's... then we make the jump to double digits from the high 6's. It may take 4 weeks... or it could take 2 depending on the CFP out look. By mid April, I suspect the PPS will have touched the 20 cent mark... not sure it will hold it but it should have at least been there.
EOY... I read someone saying that $1.00 is possible... I have a hard time saying that could or couldn't happen... if ERF gets listed without a RS in 2012, the party is going to be a loud one.
Clues... its all in the volume and the penny stock pickers... look for volume increases and lots of new names on boards and you will know the game is on!
The other major catalyst that I am hopeful for is this ... once CFP is here and announced, I will be looking for a major surge in newbies that will be the result of a national media story (WSJ or Barrons or USA Today Business section)... that would set the stage for a great run.
I like numbers... I can see this company posting an EPS bigger than today's PPS in the not too distant future... that is why I am long and holding.
BOL... do some DD... this one is worth the extra effort.
A1
Heavy volume keeps the MMs honest (in a relative sense)... my gut says that until we have heavier daily volumes, opening gaps should be avoided.
Thanks for your input on the gap issue.
I still haven't read about any theories on why we jumped up to 4.1 late in January... any one?
A1
So do you think that ERF should put their news out during trading to prevent the opening gaps? If some of you TA guys thought it would help, we could all forward the request to IR.
A1
Another slow Friday... The MMs should start stirring the pot soon which usually means the bid will drop. In the past, we have seen them take bids lower than the highest bid just to create more volume... BUT... today may be different.
Based on the number of posts and some newbies, we may get a late afternoon push north. Right now might be the best fishing for the rest of the day.
Can anyone confirm any "penny stock picking" websites that are featuring ERFW today? If there are a couple of them pushing it on a Friday, it means we will get a good run next week.
Looking forward to busting that MA200... busting through the 3's quickly and establishing a new base in the 4's.
Enjoy the ride folks... if you stick around, it will be a thriller.
A1
P.S.
GSFVF.PK and UPWRF.PK both worth a look... I am a long in these too.
Q for the techies...
When the stock gaps up at the open, I hear you talk about it back filling... is that because the volume is low? or would it happen even if there was higher volume?
Second Q... if ERFW were to put their next few announcements out after the open, would this smooth out or prevent the gap, making the technicals look stronger?
TIA to those that offer some input here
A1
Just to add something to the conversation... GSF's patent pending technique can increase a well's production by up to 35% better than the competition... they use LPG instead of water to Frack the well... and GSF is there.
It is this kind of new technology that is RE-opening up the region and that is why there are no hotel rooms available... because the place is buzzing.
With so many wells all so close together, it won't take long to build a network that can make a ton of money for ERFW.
What is the next area they should be in... Marcellus? Any others?
A1
Raising my sites... I thought with CFP, 17-20 cents would be the target but now that they are restructuring the company, (weeding out the low margins and investing in assets to support a higher margin revenue stream)... my new target is 25-30 cents.
Buy and hold.
A1
Q for the board-
What caused the run to 4.1 cents last month? Where did that group of newbies come from or was it the same shareholders grabbing a bigger slice of the pie? There was no PR... what caused it?
Theories?
A1
Nagel used the word WELL and you guys are having fun with it ... but I want to point out something else Nagel said and I quote "...Oil field infrastructure such as pipelines and processing facilities are also being developed and will also require our higher-capacity broadband networks for advanced monitoring and control applications and improved customer safety standards."
There is so much potential out there in the O&G industry... not just with new wells but old wells, old pipelines and old facilities... SAFETY is a key word... they need to have high speed monitoring at SO many locations.
LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION... it means everything.
A1
Look at the density of the wells in the Bakken... one new network could scoop up a lot of business up there... map of wells since 2003
A1
My screw up... I thought this was another 2 networks sold... this is the same deal as last week... CLEAR AS MUD.
At least they talk about where they are going with the money... they are going to build a cash cow that will feed itself...
How long until the EPS is 3 cents a share? LOL
A1
SDH is it just you and I ... where is everyone?
$6M is cash, a great business plan, growing traction in the O&G industry and NO ONE IS HERE TO SEE WHAT A GREAT INVESTMENT THIS IS!
Is everyone else being quiet while they anxiously await the open to see how good the fishing is this AM?
Your bag should be full by now boys... it is going to be a great year to own ERFW.
Frustrating... for now. Totally laughable when we are selling over a buck.
A1
How many more WISP networks are there? This is great. The company is shedding the low margin revenue stream to go hard after the high margin revenues... let's roll.
Does anyone have a clue as to what percent of the WISP business was sold? DC called it a limited portion of the WISP business... how does that translate into revenues or a percent of the revenues?
This company is "super-mega-ridiculously" UNDERVALUED... so what are they going to do to change that?
A1
One of my other investments is already there in the Bakken... here is a quote from that link...
Conclusions For Bakken Shale Formation Oil
The Bakken Shale Formation oil play of North Dakota is undoubtedly the hottest oil play going on in the oil business, today. There is a huge amount of oil in the Bakken Formation and it is difficult to recover. However, the oil companies have been very impressive in developing the necessary technology for extracting oil from the Bakken Shale Formation.
That technology is Fracking... many companies are using HydroFracking to open up these fields that were discovered many years ago... today's techniques are allowing them to go back and profitably extract O&G from these huge fields of potential energy. GasFrac, a company out of Canada, is using LPG instead of water. GasFrac arrived in ND just last week according to the message boards.
These old/new areas, like Bakken and Marcellus, are the new hot spots in North America... the potential for ERF is getting bigger and bigger with every move they make. But now we need to get a handle on the income potential... what kind of revenues can ERF produce out of the Eagle Ford and the Bakken?
A1
The Bakken area looks like another great place to be...
More reading on the Bakken
$6M in cash soon to be converted into REVENUE PRODUCING ASSETS... compare that to today's Market Cap... next joke.
Screw CFP... lets take about EPS!
For those brave enough to stick around... we may have a big winner here.... really big.
A1
One month and counting down... the 10K had better be awesome or we aren't going anywhere quickly. The only way we move from here is with results... no more empty promises. When we are hanging by a thread like this, every PR is very important ... time to open that PR pipeline and get some momentum started before the next numbers come out.
Steady as she goes.
A1
Here is the Mithra report
It is outdated. There are many more outstanding shares today and the report figured that the SLB reseller agreement would have actually turned into something.
Point is... a report like this should be done again, either by the same group or someone else.
SKIP OVER THE FIRST 17 PAGES... the key things here are the rates... look at the tables to see what they get for each TRUCK and MBT in the field. When the Eagle Ford Network is complete, I hope they report how many trucks and MBTs are in the field. We can do the math from there.
A1
Zero on the Quality Stocks Hit List today... not surprising based on the volume of posts around the boards today.
Toucan is gone? Anyone else pulling out?
I think the frustration comes from the talk about the MMs... they look like crooks to the longs but in reality, they are just doing what they can to make a buck... it feels like it is at our expense but when you look at the glass as half full, you may realize that the MMs have allowed us to grab a larger piece of the pie for less. When the volume really gets moving, we will cheer on the MMs as they run hard and fast to the north, making the late comers pay the price.
In the end, if you hang around long enough, the pie will grow, the MMs won't hold it back and the longs will cash out with smiles, twisted as they may be.
If you were reading this weekend, you missed some talk about what is holding us back...
1) no buyers... the lack of media attention has really hurt us. But for even our family and friends who we have asked to consider this investment, it is way too hard to look into this company and read between the lines. On the surface, it stinks.
2) not CFP yet... too many promises and not enough results on the 10Ks. 2009 and 2010 were lean years for many companies... many others have fallen.
3) poor leadership... a seasoned CEO is worth the big bucks he earns. I like the fact that this CEO has a large stake but his ego appears to be even larger than his share of the pie.
Action items: 1) Contracts with revenues, real dollar signs, commas and lots of zeroes. With actual dollar amounts, we could anticipate the top line growth and see the gap closing in on CFP, even before we get there. 2) Better written PRs... the fee to hire a professional might be worth it but there has to be enough trust to turn over the red pen to that professional for the last word. 3) A rewrite or update of the Mithra Report (this could be a real attention grabber). The last one was way to in-depth in the wrong areas, and it had a couple of spreadsheet errors). 4) A detailed PR that talks about how ERF is going to spend that $3M could go a long way if the investors could see that the money is going to be spent on REVENUE PRODUCING ASSETS... like whatever happened to the $4.2M MBT deal? 5) Listen to the Wall Street boys... if they see that CFP is coming and some big potential but still have concerns... be blunt; figure out how much this CEOs reputation is weighing in on their concerns. If a listing is possible in 18 months, a plan had better be constructed now to hit Wall St. on the run. This isn't rocket science any more... the street needs to embrace the company and its leaders with equal regard, or the pie loses a lot its value. 6) Time to lift the smoke screen and get some of the customer names out there. Investor confidence is less than a 3 on a scale of 0 to 100!
It may be possible that the contracts already announced could add up to enough revenue to become CFP...but we would never know it because there aren't any $$$s in the PRs. CFP could be as big a surprise as the attack on Pearl Harbor. So, it is my firm belief that when CFP arrives, there won't be anyone around to hear about it, and so it won't be a big deal... not unless the company does something to attract a crowd of willing listeners with money to spend on this fantastic investment.
Get on the ball and get this party started... its gonna flop if the attendance doesn't increase to some kind of critical mass to carry it forward.
A1
MMs are creating volume by selling below the bid.
Great fishing today if you have the bait.
Now we need a market for our catch!
A1
The Eagle Ford Network could be the key piece... once it goes live, that could be it for loses depending on how many points are tied in.
CFP could be here at $4-$5M per quarter... it is hard to pin point because the margins are going to change... The more I think about selling off those 2 networks the more I like it. The margins in the WISP business can't be nearly as good as the margins for the Energy Broadband... how many people do you need to support X dollars in revenue for the a the WISP... now compare that to the number of people to support the same X dollars in a O&G network... its a no brainer... why didn't they do this years ago. If all the new revenues come from the O&G side, I say $4M per quarter is going to be close. Does anyone else have some thoughts of the subject?
Now as for the MMs never letting it run.... they will not have a choice when the volume kicks in. The proof is right on your chart in January... the trouble we will have is keeping the PPS up there when it does happen. Low volume means we are at their mercy. High volume means they can't control it as easily. If the volume stayed consistent the MMs would prefer to keep the PPS as high as possible; but with no activity, they are forced to stir the pot by dropping the price which results in more volume/more trades so they can make a paycheck.
A1
You are right... they are messing with us... but the rally is coming... the gaps mess with the techies... just like Friday's close...
MMs know its coming... the problem is that it will catch more people by surprise when it does.
Q's of the day...
Is there anyone here who believes that ERF won't be CFP before Q3 starts?
Is there anyone here who thinks the PPS will trade lower than 15 cents once CFP is here?
If the answers are "no" and "no", then why isn't this the best dam buy on the market at 3 cents if it is very very likely to be a 5 bagger in about 6 months????
Last point... For a while now, many have said that the ERF Train had an ETD of February.... well February is half over, and we have no momentum yet. We are stuck waiting until a different train full of new buyers arrives here at the station ... and that requires big news and/or media attention... let's get a move on there front office. Nothing is going to happen unless you make it happen!
A1
4 Penny Stock Pickers had ERFW on their list of Friday... I see this as a strong sign and believe we may have a run next week if ERF is on their list Monday as well.
Find the 4 here
A1
FERG... that is a real possibility.
A1
ERFW could buy back 75m shares for 4 cents or less with the $3M they have in cash. That is one sixth of the outstanding shares... but then they would have to sell those shares to increase the footprint, build networks and buy MBTs... NO MORE "D"!
I'd rather be patient. Let them use this cash to build out the CASH COW and somewhere down the road, instead of the first dividend, they can do a share buy back.
In time this thing will work...especially now that it has some cash in hand. I am just getting frustrated by the pace at which things are getting done... and the way the CEO is going about his business.
What do you think the best use of the new cash is... a buy back or investment to increase the top line???
A1
Join the club... we are all a little nuts.
But think about it... the best thing to do when investing is to keep looking for the next thing that is about to become popular. It is easy to get in because no one wants to be there now. And it will be easy to get out, because soon, there will be a crowd trying to get where you already are.
ERF has a ton of potential; the numbers are mind numbing. We just have to ride along until it makes enough of the right kind of noises to attract a crowd.
A1
MMs aren't computers and that is a problem.
As for hiring a good PR company, we did... Rubenstein out of NYC was hired until about 6 months ago. (that is when I noticed their name wasn't listed next to CO's at the bottom of the PRs)
What good is a PR firm if the CEO insists on being the primary spokesman for the company, and he isn't a good public speaker? What good does it do the company if the PRs are written "in house"? What good is hiring a consultant of any kind, if the CEO doesn't listen to anyone but himself? It's a recipe for disaster.
This company needs to grab the spot light by getting some new board members that are tried and true... not DC puppets. Hiring a new CTO would help and then of course there is the big moment... Hiring a new CEO. It would be a perfect time to do it when DC announces they are CFP... but he has to do his homework first. The last time he named a replacement, it cost a lot of us big bucks, including himself (EAG, a different company).
It is the most obvious choice at this stage of the game. He can turn the helm over when he can declare the company a success. He has plenty of shares to entice a seasoned CEO to the company. There are plenty of experienced top execs that would jump at the chance.
Think about how DC is going to retire in a few years... the best way would be to sell the company to another publicly traded company so he can start the process of liquidating his shares. But if he were to stay here as the CEO, how is he going to start selling shares without eroding the newly acquired investor confidence??? He either has to step aside and sell as a former officer of the company or he needs to sell out all together. He isn't getting any younger struggling with the every day running of this company.
Take a look at this board which I think is the best ERFW board going... we have all bought in. There isn't nearly enough interest from outsiders thinking about jumping in. Its like a room full of single men at a bar waiting for that first good looker to walk through the door... it isn't going to happen. As soon as she peaks her head in the door, all eyes are on her and she is gonna run far and fast. There just aren't enough sideliners watching and waiting to get in. We need headlines.
When or if the time comes (CFP and more contracts coming), I don't believe that we will get too many institutional players to jump in and really move the PPS because of our skipper.
Now... most of you are reading my posts today wondering why I am invested here because I sound like a basher... it is very simple... even with this management team in place, I believe this stock is way under valued and will make a reasonable profit from these levels. If DC stepped down, I would bet that he would make a whole lot more money for himself and the rest of us.
This stock is a tough sell... It always has been because of the lack of information in the PRs... "AN UNNAMED BILLION DOLLAR COMPANY SIGNED A CONTRACT WITH ERFW FOR AN UNDISCLOSED AMOUNT OF MONEY TODAY"... no wonder it is tough to build and hold on to investor's confidence. Until earnings show up on a 10k, it looks like smoke and mirrors.
So how about some suggestions from the board on how to get the company more exposure and lure some newbies to the table.
Anyone?
A1
Could be MMs and it could be the other key ingredient that we don't have here... its a fresh set of buyers...
News came on Friday morning and it did not appear to attract any new buyers. In fact many of the message board members seemed to think that news was coming... if the only people attracted to the stock are already here, we (longs) have a big problem.
We need to pull in some new blood to get in the game. I have been trying with some heavy weights but you would be amazed at their conclusion after doing some DD.
Great concept of working the vertical markets... the technology is solid... the industries are likely to adopt the technology... there is a ton of potential... BUT I WOULDN'T TOUCH IT WITH A TEN FOOT POLE!
Of course I have to ask why and I got this response... it the man at the helm. He is a fish out of water running this company. Wall Street won't ever trust him to build this into what it can really be. Smart guy but his ego gets in the way. He doesn't listen to anyone as smart or smarter than he, so he will never make it as a leader. He tries to talk the talk but he hasn't learned to back it up before he talks. I was told, with the right CEO, I'd be a very interested in investing here. What really got me was how quickly this response came back... its no secret.
Talks of getting listed really make no sense until something has changed. The street isn't going to welcome ERFW for a while. They need a new CEO, to be way past turning CFP and news of much more serious traction or breaking into a new industry or two... something with lots more revenue potential has to be announced after they get listed. Wall Street is greedy... they want earnings and lots more potential earnings... otherwise they have no patience for you.
Even with CFP looming, we aren't attracting any attention. So where are we going to get new investors from? Have there been any USA Today articles, WSJ or Barrons articles on ERFW? Somehow ERFW needs to gain some positive exposure but how? Get this thing to a dollar and a 1:2 split might work if you have an audience waiting to hear how much more earnings can be.
This board needs to come up with some good ideas and submit them to CO in IR.
ERFW has cash... that cash will make more cash to grow even bigger. ERFW is on the move but no one is paying attention... we need to PING a radar screen somewhere.. somehow.
A1
Market makers can change the color, the shadows(daily highs and lows), the tops and bottoms (open and close) by passing over bids or asks when they paint the tape. Friday there wasn't one trade under 26 all day and then the someone sells 50k shares in the last 2 trades in the 25s... was it a market maker selling his own inventory just to drop the closing price? Was it really the best bid/ask at the time? Or did he skip over some just to paint the tape and drop the candle bottom a little lower? It most certainly factors into the formulas that the techies use.
This link talks about MM Tricks... and they are talking about MMs of higher priced stocks... ERFW is a penny stock without much volume so the MMs can mess with the PPS much easier than the more expensive expensive/higher volume stocks. I watched them on Thursday and Friday trade stocks for less than my bid (a bid for over 100k shares, so there is no excuse). I have been watching this for years here... this stock gets abused by MMs more than any stock I have ever seen. I am conVINced that certain MMs have an agenda here.
I am all for MMs making a little spread and keeping the trades moving but I need to draw the line somewhere. These guys have been stretching the rules and messing with us for too long. At these prices where they have a hard time opening up the spread, the only way to keep them honest is to increase the volume.
How often do we see a low volume uptick around here?
Time to let the dogs run a little so take of the leash.
A1
The article (had to cut paste, link didn't work) mentions 3 hot spots for drilling activity in the country and guess who has 2 of them already covered... ERFW.
How's the goat there, Froggy? Gettin' old or still doing it for ya?
MMs really slapped us in the face with that close... prize fish today are any under 26... great fishing.
With that insulting close, I am looking for a complete turn around next week... the MMs know it... they did this just to throw off the technicals... watch and learn. I have studied these MMs for years.
2's are history. 3's are going to be a blurr.
MA200 under 4... tick tock... it's gonna go!
Been doing this for too long... one of these days, it will all be worth it.
A1
Got another day's quota at .0265 today... EZ$.
Now let's see a little run before the close.
This company is in much better shape now with $3m in cash verses a couple of weeks ago at 4.1 cents and no cash. I think we trade in the 4s next week... it is just taking time for people to realize that the company is over the hump and CFP is on fast approach.
I ask this question of the long time longs... how often have we seen Friday news releases?... this is only the second time that I remember. Why was this done today and not yesterday or Monday? It makes no sense that they wouldn't put it out yesterday.... so why today? Friday's action isn't good enough ... why not Monday? Does anyone have a theory?
A1
It's Friday afternoon... best time for fishing.
My baited hooks are there if the MMs want it. I had it there yesterday and they traded shares lower than my bid. It happened again this morning. I am not going to sweat the games they play... I will let the baited hooks hang right where they are ... it's time for a snoozer.
Be back in time for the close and to clean up my unused bait.
A1
MBD... I must have stepped on your toes. I said "wow ... harsh" ... I was talking about the language. As to the point, I read your posts and feel that maybe there was some gray area here that shouldn't be crossed.... so if that guy is correct, which I doubt (see below) he MAY have a point but with very poor delivery.
I talk to C.O in IR. She has never told me that we would be listed this year. If she had, I'd never repeat it on the MB because it would mean an RS was inevitable... and I don't like those. CO is always optimistic and guarded... I suppose that is her job. I have never talked to any other employee but her.
I think news is coming but I base it on the fact that the O&G industry is booming. Look at GSF, HAL, BHI, RIG, SLB, etc... these are all related to the O&G industry and they are doing great... why because the O&G industry is spending money these days... they are investing in new technology too. Much different than last year.
As far as putting your money where your mouth is... I'd venture to say we have both done that. So let's share the ride... there is plenty of room for all.
No one can rain on this parade... ERFW is primed and ready to head north.
BOL
A1
The natives are getting restless.
The Drums are getting louder.
Time to leave the 2s behind ... forever.
A1
Wow... harsh but maybe you have a point.
A1
The fishing hasn't been this good in a long time... EZ$$$.
Let's talk about the choice of words... "non-core".
The WISP division was a revenue producer so why is that called "non-core"? Is it because the margins are lower that Energy Broadbands? or is it that they the cash from the WISP can be reinvested and produce larger revenues at higher margins? Or I am trying to read too much into this? Is it that the O&G is their core business and every thing else is for sale?
Does anyone have any thoughts about their choice of words?
A1