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MRTX 14A
is kind of interesting, and not in a good way for MRTX shareholders. The history of BMY offers dated back to 03/22 at $125 with a high (non-binding) offer in 04/22 of $140 share, which the board of MRTX wanted to see improved. MRTX was trading around the 80's at the time having fallen from about 200 a few moths prior and an all-time high near 250 in late 2020. Finally accepting $58 plus a $12 CVR. Yes, buyouts can happen at any time but your BOD might screw it up.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1576263/000114036123049203/edge20012673x1_prem14a.htm#tBOM
A brief summary via X:
https://twitter.com/fakepharmabro/status/1716576875156275250
When the most vocal bulls stop announcing purchases is the more refined version of that sentiment indicator. Getting closer.
There is still more tax loss selling this month and more in December if it becomes relevant. Me, I'd rather wait on sales north of 25M in consecutive Q's even if it means buying at a higher price (and it might not.)
Getting ready for another tranche?
The customer isn't seeing the results that were promised while paying a premium so their not too happy. I'm not so sure if new pricing will be helpful at this point.
PFE
Back to the low 32's less than two weeks after this post. Still not calling a bottom but one in this area is clearly something that is possible.
NVO LLY more to digest on the FLOW trial, FWIW via @Citrini7
Had a great call with one of my two channel checks in endocrinology (who I fully attribute my decision to get long NVO and LLY in 2022 to, he’s turbo smart) regarding novo’s FLOW trial and the effect it may have on CKD/ESRD/dialysis volumes.
His thoughts (completely anecdotal, this is just the opinion of a person who’s got experience in the area):
“Mounjaro/Ozempic are tricky w/ the kidney stuff. On one hand, the effect on DM2 and obesity comorbid HTN obviously is a huge +ve in terms of whether these patients end up in the dialysis funnel, however…
They also significantly dehydrate you, and while that’s manageable for compliant patients who increase their fluid intake, there will be those who don’t & end up taking this for quite a while. Chronic dehydration like that could result in patients who otherwise might not have ended up in the funnel. I’m seeing a lot of patients who already have decided they will be on these drugs forever. So there’s a double edged sword here.
Overall? I think I have to wait to find out more about the FLOW trial but it’s relatively consistent with what I’ve expected. There will be more headlines like this, some will be new discoveries re: direct alteration of disease states and some will just be the kind of obvious secondary and tertiary effects of not being obese (especially in heart health).”
Some other highlights in terms of anecdata:
-Ozempic is significantly more muscle sparing than Mounjaro (he has spoken to NVO about this, they are aware but not marketing on it), expects triple G drugs like Retatrutide will be significantly less muscle sparing than Mounjaro as well
-Some anecdotes about GLP-1s helping with lipodystrophy and cellulite
-Mounjaro is significantly better tolerated by nearly all patients with diabetes and prediabetes
-Very excited for CagriSema and bimagrumab
-Believes there will be a Pharma solution to Gastroparesis issue similar to the way Pharma invented new anti-constipation drugs for chronic pain patients on oxy prone, also believes GH & GHRH are potential pathways to alleviate muscle loss
-Sees CGM demand relatively unchanged, also sees demand from non-DM patients -Has had numerous DM patients w/ a total cessation of short acting insulin use. Very bearish on insulin pumps in general.
-Mounjaro caloric reduction in morbid obesity more significant than in obesity. Sees patients going from 5-6k/d to 700-800. Needs to recommend protein supplementation.
-Most common complaint is GI, although less so with Mounjaro. Telogen effluvium in about 20% of patients - has not seen any pt d/c Tx due to it though. Has seen no Gastroparesis patients, advises patients to stop taking it 4-6 weeks before anaesthesia.
-Believes effect on alcohol consumption is significant; but not on addiction to nicotine/illicit drugs.
If you’re qualified to weigh in, feedback is welcome. (please, for the fucking love of God, ask yourself if you are before you take to that keyboard. no more 27 year old finance bros acting like they understand medicine please, I’ve reached my limit)
12:33 PM · Oct 14, 2023
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131
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If PFE drops back into the 32's I will re-examine the situation.
I may or may not make note of when I do "see a bottom." I don't intend to note any other trades in this stock.
RVNC
Whatever the price may be at some point in the future, whatever risk/reward you think you are taking, this stock is in the penalty box until price stabilizes. Preferably with positive sales etceteras.
There are likely several reasons for the selloff here. Blaming one or another doesn't do any good. Some of those pressures will remain at least until earnings, and earnings has become something like a binary with sales being a primary focus. Whatever the price was last week looks too high.
So yeah, I don't like buying stocks in downtrends. Buy the dip in an uptrend, sure. Downtrend, no.
....please advise .
(speculative, no idea)
Like I said, I have no idea.
I don't know.
I don't have a dog in the fight.
So if those currently on dialysis continue at the same mortality rate BUT you slow the rate of new patients starting dialysis using Ozempic ...dont you shrink the population being treated ?
I think there are two discussions.
Is it a big deal for dialysis patients? Looks like it might be. That's good.
Is it a big deal for DVA et al? I don't know. The point of Ralph's post was that whatever reduction there my be in dialysis, the selloff looked like an overreaction.
I don't have a dog in the fight. If you want to posit that GLP-1 will keep Stage 4 CKD patients in that stage longer, then it takes them longer to get to dialysis. Not that there will be less.
FWIW a comment from a Nephrologist
Having hard time believing, as a kidney doctor, that the data from Ozempic will have such an impact on CKD patients to the level dialysis stocks have reacted. While I believe it will delay CKD progression, a la gliflozin family, I doubt it will be curative. $DVA $NVO $LLY ...
— Ralph (@StuckInStock) October 11, 2023
Patients on these drugs have no desire to eat from the many I have spoken to, so to think they will eat more (even tasty snack foods) for pleasure knowing the drug may offset the weight gain is probably not accurate. This is totally anecdotal, but pretty consistent from the dozen or so patients I have spoken to about their experience on these drugs
PHG
More drama on the apnea device recall from 2021, FDA still seeking data.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/06/philips-shares-fall-after-fda-says-sleep-device-recall-inadequate.html
KEY POINTS
Shares of Dutch health tech company Philips on Friday fell to the bottom of the European benchmark.
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) said overnight that it does not believe that “the testing and analysis Philips has shared to date are adequate to fully evaluate the risks posed to users from the recalled devices.”
In response to the FDA, Philips said in a statement that its “first priority is the health and well-being of patients.”
You may have a different definition of investing than I do. For example, this from Wikipedia mentions expectation of capital gains. There is no differentiation between short and long term capital gains.
What??
Following your link and just below the quoted section in your post:
How does capital gains tax work?
Capital gains taxes are progressive, similar to income taxes. When you sell an investment, that profit is considered taxable income. The holding period — the time between when you bought the asset and when you sold it — determines how the profit gets classified for tax purposes. Profits made on assets held for a year or less before sale are considered short-term capital gains. Profits made on assets held for longer than a year are long-term capital gains.
trading for short-ish term profit and longer-term investing.
Investment is traditionally defined as the "commitment of resources to achieve later benefits". If an investment involves money, then it can be defined as a "commitment of money to receive more money later". From a broader viewpoint, an investment can be defined as "to tailor the pattern of expenditure and receipt of resources to optimise the desirable patterns of these flows". When expenditure and receipts are defined in terms of money, then the net monetary receipt in a time period is termed as cash flow, while money received in a series of several time periods is termed as cash flow stream.
In finance, the purpose of investing is to generate a return from the invested asset. The return may consist of a gain (profit) or a loss realized from the sale of a property or an investment, unrealized capital appreciation (or depreciation), or investment income such as dividends, interest, or rental income, or a combination of capital gain and income. The return may also include currency gains or losses due to changes in the foreign currency exchange rates.
Investors generally expect higher returns from riskier investments. When a low-risk investment is made, the return is also generally low. Similarly, high risk comes with a chance of high losses.
So, an alternative strategy would be to see a quarter in which sales seemed to respond to price, or a prolonged period of buying prior to quarterlies release (say run to 15??).
I highly doubt I will miss it. Not willing to risk another dollar on this team, in this environment.
Bookmark this post; if my thesis has not panned out in 18 months, you can advise me to do better.
RVNC
Whether it should have been bought there is irrelevant (and best answered in hindsight.)
I don't like buying stocks in established downtrends.
PFE
out-of-the-money puts at several strikes on a tactical basis. My thinking is that the market and PFE will bounce some here.
Nothing moves in a straight line.
More info on Gepirone, a long history.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F7I9FY9WMAEMtlP?format=jpg&name=medium
PFE
Time to sit on my hands and see if it settles out somewhere lower
it should be pretty much done unless other issues show up.
After today's Treasury announcement with more weight on Bonds to Bills than previously, I'm more inclined to be cautious about the market in general.
Yes, there are usually multiple points of view. I don't put a whole lot of value into any of them, including the one I posted.
It is more worthwhile to be aware of these articles/promotions than to try to evaluate them for merit.
[RVNC et al] Needham survey on GLP-1 and aesthetics FWIW
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4014421-needham-survey-shows-glp-1-drugs-already-impacting-aesthetics-sector
Interestingly, 61% of respondents who have taken GLP-1 drugs for weight loss said that they were more inclined to undergo an aesthetic procedure, while 39% said they were less inclined.
Overall, respondents indicated they were willing to spend more on aesthetic procedures in the next 6 to 12 months. The Q3 survey found the average expected spend was $702 per respondent, up 26% from $557 average indicated in Q1 2023 and up 1% from the $695 spend expected in the Q3 2022 survey.
Respondents also favored injectable facial fillers over injectable wrinkle treatments. The survey found that 9.9% of respondents were planning on getting fillers in the next 6 to 12 months, up from 7.1% in Needham’s Q1 survey. In comparison, 9% said they were opting for injectable wrinkle treatments, down from 10.3% in the Q1 survey.
“Despite survey results pointing to mixed trends for injectable aesthetics, newer market entrants such as Revance Therapeutics (NASDAQ:RVNC) and Evolus (EOLS) have had encouraging 1H 2023 performance with their respective products,” Needham said.
Agree to an extent.
The price right now can be viewed as an alternative to buying a 6 month T-bill with a slightly higher risk-free rate. In return for buying PFE, you get better tax treatment on the dividends but take a variety of risks:
1. Risk that the dividend may not be able to be maintained at a future date.
2. Risk that the 'risk-free rate' goes higher.
3. Business risk not already reflected in point (1.)
Let's face it, if the risk free rate goes to 6% (not currently foreseen), PFE could drop into the 20's as long as it is viewed more like a utility than a growth stock.
Also, PFE has weekly options. Today is an expiration, so 32.50 and 33.00 are relevant. You see odd moves sometimes due to OpEx.
PFE
Starting to look interesting. I'd like to see 32's.
I don't like buying stocks in established downtrends. It's easy to find examples of stocks that look like a bargain and then go down another 50% or more.
I guess I’m not willing to buy at $11 when I don’t understand the reasons for the long steady decline, not to mention the early plunge this morning.
That is a summary, yes.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/revance-provides-corporate-investor-day-130000829.html
Q3 2023 product revenue has the potential to be around Q2 2023 levels based on the recent roll out of the new pricing program and traditional seasonality in facial injectables.
PFE down into 33's on expectation of 24% Covid vaccination rate this year.
Starting to look interesting. I'd like to see 32's.
I'll be sure to parse tomorrow's Baird webcast with this in mind.
FWIW I listened to 235 related portions of the conference today.
Nothing to hang your hat on, but I got the impression they have gotten what they need from the FDA. Could easily be an over-read.
Following your link and looking at the slide number on the bottom of each slide (the only numerical indication I see) has a symptom summary for slide 28, and what I previously noted for slide 27.
I see treatment within 5 days as slide 25, lol.
• New slide 26 (which had no counterpart in the old slide set) graphs the EDP-235 SPRINT trial’s primary endpoint (Total Symptom Score for all 14 prespecified symptoms) among all ITT patients.
• New slide 27 (which had no counterpart in old slide set) graphs the EDP-235 SPRINT trial’s primary endpoint (Total Symptom Score for all 14 prespecified symptoms) among the subset of patients treated within 3 days of symptom onset.
Mark Cubans cost plus 15% plus $10
GS removes ratings and price targets for early stage biotech
click through link (Sept 10, 2023) for pic of GS statement if it does not show.
Interesting move by Goldman, removing ratings & price targets until after phase 2. Why not just remove price targets in general? Most investors disregard them anyway and the approach by many sell side analysts is to adjust price targets after the fact. HT @Biotech_DD who I would… pic.twitter.com/kbsevuBVc9
— Daphne Zohar (@daphnezohar) September 10, 2023
The investment thesis is that the product is good enough to survive management.
PFE
Briefly dipped down to 34 this morning. Starting to look interesting. I'd like to see 32's.
ENTA made these other seven announcements via X/twitter in 2023.
It's a busy week. Enanta will be participating in fireside chats in NY today and tomorrow. Visit the "Events & Presentations" page on our website to join the webcasts. https://t.co/9wa5LQCASi pic.twitter.com/lEejHFdAis
— Enanta Pharmaceuticals (@EnantaPharma) May 16, 2023
Today at the @Jefferies Healthcare Conference, Jay R. Luly, Ph.D., our President & CEO and Tara Kieffer, Ph.D. our SVP of New Product Strategy & Development, will participate in a fireside chat. To access the webcast, visit here: https://t.co/wlszeYuS5H pic.twitter.com/2Wfel5FhJa
— Enanta Pharmaceuticals (@EnantaPharma) June 7, 2023
We’re looking forward to having our President & CEO, Jay R. Luly, Ph.D., present at the @Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. 33rd Annual Healthcare Conference next Tuesday. For more details, read here: https://t.co/44Brq2yPOs pic.twitter.com/I3MeGOFbFv
— Enanta Pharmaceuticals (@EnantaPharma) March 7, 2023
Don't miss it! This morning Enanta's President & CEO, Jay Luly, Ph.D., and SVP, New Product Strategy & Development, Tara Kieffer, Ph.D., will participate in a fireside chat at the @SVB Securities Global Biopharma Conference at 8:40 a.m. https://t.co/U5wMLKgKP5 pic.twitter.com/B2IrLQw8FZ
— Enanta Pharmaceuticals (@EnantaPharma) February 14, 2023
Enanta CEO, Dr. Jay Luly and SVP, New Product Strategy & Development, Dr. Tara Kieffer will participate in a fireside chat at the #SVB Securities Global Biopharma Conference next Tuesday. For details, read here: https://t.co/NGJB9jstal pic.twitter.com/c9UHVU8zDb
— Enanta Pharmaceuticals (@EnantaPharma) February 7, 2023
We look forward to presenting updates on our R&D pipeline and business outlook for 2023 at the 41st Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference next week. For details on our CEO Jay R. Luly’s presentation on January 10 read here: https://t.co/kXzIg85GSq pic.twitter.com/LqUizMRPKN
— Enanta Pharmaceuticals (@EnantaPharma) January 6, 2023
Enanta Pharmaceuticals CEO, Jay R. Luly, will present at this year’s @jpmorgan Healthcare Conference on January 10. Join the webcast at 3:00 p.m. PST and hear about our pipeline progress. To register visit here: https://t.co/wlszeYuS5H pic.twitter.com/hRLBkB7YpE
— Enanta Pharmaceuticals (@EnantaPharma) January 3, 2023