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Smart cat
How long you think this is going to take ( weeks / months ) before we get the bottom , whats your target price to buy at ?
I went long at the close today just for a fast smack .
Mike
Gts , you are right , its a tough world out there . The prospects are not looking that bright as we go forward either . What are you up to these days ?
I am keeping an eye on 1089 lately .
Mike
GTSOURDINIS / CHI CHI
Some great posts, thanks for all your efforts
mj
Oil
I think the energy trusts maybe worth checking out as we go forward , however , some require extensive research prior to going long in them.
Mj
Does anyone like oil at these levels ?
OPINIONS ?
What are the opinions of the board for this week , we going up or sliding off ?
I heard the Pres wasn't that positive earlier in the week when he spoke about it re Cashin .
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1319928126&play=1
Question for the board
Anyone staying long overnight there is employment numbers out tomorrow aren't there ?
Mj
Myself
That was a great post !
Where does the board see a good entry price on DIG or USO ?
Thanks
gtsourdinis , you may want to take a look at this for future trading .
http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/index.html
Thanks for that post 4GODnwv , much appreciated .
Mike
4GOD and everyone else , COULD THIS BE TRUE ?
When to Put Your Money Under Your Mattress
(Full report received by Pro clients on 02-Oct-09)
For decades, the prevailing wisdom held that the way to sleep at night was to buy and hold stocks for the long term while ignoring market gyrations. But investors who had implicit faith in this philosophy of long-term investment had a rude awakening during the Great Recession.
Even the remarkable rally from the March 2009 market low has not repaired all the damage to their investment portfolios. In despair, many have concluded that the investment climate is just too uncertain to trust their hard-earned dollars to the vagaries of the stock market. That is a great pity, because managing the risk to a stock portfolio is not as hard as most believe.
The simple fact is that the worst bear markets are normally associated with recessions. Therefore, you should sell your stocks in anticipation of a recession, and buy stocks ahead of a recovery.
Fortunately, good leading indexes are designed to flag recessions and recoveries before they arrive. Not all leading indexes are created equal, but the best of them can help avert much of the damage that recessions wreak on stock portfolios. ECRI’s leading indexes are a case in point.
In mid-September 2000, for the first time in nearly a decade, ECRI warned publicly of a coming recession (see right-hand column of page). Then, in early February 2002, it made its economic recovery call. Six years later, in March 2008, ECRI announced that the economy was in recession – a call that remained in force until April 2009, when it predicted a recovery this summer.
Mind you, these were not stock market calls, which ECRI does not make. (Full disclosure: On March 19, 2009, ECRI sent its clients what Grant’s Interest Rate Observer described as a “table-pounding” missive: in Jim Grant’s words, “The implication could not have been clearer that a market rally, when it started, would be no sucker’s affair but the real McCoy.”)
But it is still worth examining what would have happened to the value of a stock portfolio over the course of the last two recessions and recoveries if an investor had simply sold stocks on the day that ECRI publicly predicted a recession and bought back stocks on the day ECRI publicly predicted an economic recovery. It is instructive to compare this to a long-term buy-and-hold strategy for the S&P 500.
The results are compelling. If you had started with $100 in stocks on the day in September 2000 when ECRI publicly warned of recession and followed the standard buy-and-hold strategy, those stocks would be worth just $72 nine years later, at the end of September 2009.
Alternatively, suppose you had sold all your stocks on that very day in September 2000 and put the cash under your mattress until the day in early 2002 when ECRI announced a recovery, at which point you used all of that money to buy stocks. Then, suppose you once again sold all your stocks on the day in March 2008 that ECRI made its next recession call, and used all of that money to buy stocks on the day ECRI made its 2009 recovery call.
Following that simple buy-low-sell-high strategy, your stocks would be worth $148 at the end of September 2009 – more than double what a buy-and-hold strategy would have given you. You can do the math – over the nine-year period, you would have beaten the buy-and-hold returns by more than eight percentage points a year, on average – and even more if you had put your money in money market funds instead of your mattress.
Of course, this strategy would miss sizeable rallies and corrections. It is hardly the best possible way to manage money – investment professionals with the time and resources to analyze an array of specialized state-of-the-art leading indicators should be able to do better still.
But the average person has little time to study the markets. For that person, the power of reliable leading indexes of recession and recovery can make the difference between a comfortable retirement and many extra years of work during his golden years.
We are now at a juncture where the importance of decent returns to repair many broken portfolios is painfully obvious. Yet, in such uncertain times, it is equally imperative to follow a low-risk strategy. The bottom line is that good leading indexes are invaluable for navigating these treacherous economic shoals, with the economy likely to dip in and out of recession in the years to come.
ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm.
- The Economist, Jan. '05
4god
What is your best pick in gold stocks. I am currently in AEM and GDX , however I think the real money is to be made / lost / lol on the good quality small cap , any suggestions ?
Mj
QUESTION RE GOLD
Anyone have a favourite gold stock , I just got wind of AMNP , not that I know of it being any good or bad.
mj
LET THE GAMES BEGIN !!!
Markets
What are you guys up doing today ? going long / short ? I have been adding to some of my income trusts
Question for the board
Where do you guys see support for the S&P 500
Thanks for any comments
mj
Why not just stay flat out till there is a trend change. I am noticing some of the trusts are holding up well during times like this .
Are we going to roll over here and maybe even see a gap down opening sometime soon ?
Chi
I don't know if you follow or like Kass, however he has turned extremely negative and from my readings I don't believe he sees a V shape .
Very nice call on amd chi , I am all cash .
Thanks for your comments chi chi , I can see that FAS is one to trade .
Shooting fish in a barrel ?
Please share your strategy
Mj
Am I the only one have tech difficulties with this board ?
Thanks
Mike
Opinions
Anyone getting more positive / negative about the markets on the board ?
I am thinking adding , long after opt exp .
Dips
I don't think they will stop right away , however we are heading into opt exp next week , but then again wtfdik .
Chi , speaking of reversals, check out the TSX exchange , it got a little pukey at the end of the day today .
When ou refer to the second wave, how long does that normally take ? I see we will be heading into option exp very soon.
http://www.optionsclearing.com/publications/xcal/xcal2008.pdf
Mike
Is the u.s. market open on Monday ?
I take it you are very negative at this juncture ? Is this not closer to support ? anything you like long at this time ?
Anyone into buyng some gold now ?
http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/clip-image016.gif
Where does the board see key support on the S&P ? or I guess a better question is , where is oil going short term ?
Thanks for any comments
Myself
Those were my exact thoughts, I also figured with today's action along with how cat acted after and the weekend coming I took it off the table and will now wait . I like buying into the oil sector on support and selling at resisitance .
Myself I agree with your post and that is exactly what happens to me everytime I get near that sector. Bottom line we need volumes or this imho is going to be one magic short spike and wouldn't that set us up for something dangerous ?
Am I the only one that went all cash ?
Sorry about that George , duly noted .
Chi
What are your thoughts on the markets short / mid term here ?
Mike
Chi
That call gs made today, got my attention later today . With opt exp finishing up and not having any blood on the saddle today also gets my attention. Almost seems as though they want to draw all of them back in so they can do the nasty ?
mj