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Plane now reported to have been shot down with over 200 onboard. This will hit the Malaysian people really hard.
News: Malaysian Airlines Boeing 777 plane has crashed in Ukraine. Hasn't hit the news yet.
Thanks for the update Roy.
I have been doing some retraining after making a bunch of bad trades over the past few weeks, so not doing much on the board. Restudying chart signals, patterns, etc.
Went back to every bad trade, and did a chart analysis to figure out what I was doing wrong. Mostly assuming that the stock "story" in my head was reality instead of following the chart.
Come to realize I am better at reading longer-term charts, and not so good at reading charts for daytrades - too slow with my entries and exits. So I'm making fewer, longer term trades. This week, I am in NEM and MU.
Also found a great new trading resource - TastyTrade.com. It's an all-day web broadcast on trading by the founders of ThinkorSwim. The style of commentary is often very annoying. However there is one particularly good segment, hosted by Slim, every day from nooon-1:00. Been getting some good trading ideas from him - he does very thorough chart analysis.
Have a great weekend, and thanks as always for sharing your expertise.
I was just thinking the same thing. We're pulling for you Roy.
BOT BRK.B Aug16 $125 Puts @ .73
BOT NFLX July11 $465 Put @ 5.54
Close to a double - good one Brad!
Add QQQ July11 94.50 P @ .29
BOT QQQ July11 94.50 P @ .37
Good article on Goldman and NFLX - caveat emptor
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2296575-caveat-emptor-on-goldman-sachs-call-on-netflix
BOT MSFT July11 $41.50 Puts @ .20
OUT TSLA July3 242.50 Call @ 2.68 - (-.51) Crud!
BOT TSLA July3 242.50 Call @ 3.19
News Tidbit: Today is annual Russell rebalance. Hi volume at close.
From Marketwire:
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Trading volume is expected to end up quite elevated Friday due to the annual rebalancing of the Russell indexes.
About $42 billion will trade on Friday as a result of the reconstitution, which will make it one of the biggest trading days of the year in terms of dollar volume, said a Reuters report citing Credit Suisse data.
Wow Roy! You're rockin' already. First time ever I have been able to watch you trades and see the signals all lining up. Amazing!
OUT MSFT July 3 $41 calls @ .95 (+.14)
What period chart?
Thanks Beer! I will start posting my TA on selected trades as well as a process check. If you see ways to help me improve, I appreciate feedback when you have the time.
Jane
Edit: It was Jun30 - Good trade Beer. Gonna study what you are doing more.
BOT MSFT July3 $41 Calls@ .81
Target 41.84, 41.96?
May try to close the gap between 41.94 and 42.
OUT SPY Jun3 $195 Calls @ .80 {+.20). Trading conservatively for awhile.
One big difference is that I bought SPY for one week out.
Looking at the 15 minute, 5 day chart, I see that long cascade of down red candles, and see the potential to return to 195.54 in a day or so.
Trying to reverse analyze your BIDU as well. You entered prior to 9:42am.
What I observe on the 2 min
- MAs crossed (I use 13 and 4 SMA)
- A big down candle
-Williams bottoms out
-Stochs crossed
-Increase in sell volume
Is this close to your reasoning?
Since then, it has traded pretty much sideways.
For longer term swing trades, you can base targets off the support and resistance of the charts. I'm not sure how well that works for day trading. The classes I have taken were for longer term swing trading. I haven't fully adapted what I learned to day trading.
Just prior to Beer's entry, looks like two moving average crossed, and or slow stochastics crossed? Also looks like the Williams% touched -80 then bounced from it.
Am I getting closer? Grasshopper is listening carefully...
Etrade doesn't seem to have that particular Chaikin - maybe there is an equivalent - will research later.
A runner, in my relatively cautious experience, would be indicated by a surge in volume, and a series of long candles, particularly in the direction of a gap, or a reversal.
I'm watching for them today.
REBOT SPY Jun30 $195 Calls @ .57
Roy, are you using Chaikin volatility?
Out SPY $195 Calls @ .51 (-.09) I see what you're saying Roy.
I have a tendency to watch the 3 min chart and it may be leading me into trades prematurely.
Haven't watched the Chaikin before, and have not been paying close enough attention to volume. These signals just became more clear to me.
Thanks. Probably just observing for the rest of the day until we have a runner.
BOT SPY Jun30 $195 Calls @ .60
Post-Mortem July 3 AMZN put.
No excuse for this trade. Was totally emotional, based on what I expected the market would do, and not based on the evidence. Then, I persisted in holding onto the belief, despite watching the trade turn against me.
Lesson learned: I have a tendency to trade emotionally, and it is dangerous. Once I make a bad trade, I keep looking for confirmation that the emotional trade was correct, instead of facing up to the error and getting out fast.
It is a sobering exercise to do post-mortems on a public board. Keeps me more honest with myself about my limitations.
Reset all of my charts today and have multiple post-its all over my computer.
Start over. Today is new day.
Thanks for sharing DOT - good rule of thumb - I am writing it down.
Post-Mortem July 3 XOM call. (Roy - input appreciated)
My reasoning behind this trade:
- Daily chart - long term uptrend, with recent pullback. I expect it to continue moving up over the medium and long-term.
- Iraq situation has been boosting energy stocks
- On the 15 minute chart - Good pullback yesterday, but didn't expect it to last long.
- 3 minute chart: looked like it was going to reverse about 10am when it hit the 101.70 support line. Reasonable chance to bounce to 102-103 in a day or so.
Chose July 3 ex to give myself wiggle room if I'm wrong. I prefer about one month out for that reason. Most of my major losses have been trying to trade weeklies.
103 strike is one strike out of the money, with Delta of .32. I prefer trading stocks with deltas over .50 because I can salvage more value if I have to bail. In this case, .32 OK because I am expecting it to regain the 102-103 range, hopefully by tomorrow.
Ended slightly up today. Fairly good probability I will get out of this one alive.
Other clues:
- I am primarily a candlestick trader, but not a great one yet. Also trade with 13 and 4 SMA crosses.
- I tend to enter trades impulsively, thinking that it's going to run/plunge immediately. Generally wrong. That's what happened with AMZN. Next Port-Mortem.
If Beer teaches calls, I want to sign up!
Thanks Roy. Today was my worst day ever. For some reason, I have a bias for anticipating reverals, and ignoring all the contrary evidence. It was very costly today.
On the good side, I finally did pull the plug on AMZN puts, although much too late. So I do have some capital to start over. But must figure out why I am discounting the signals.
I have noticed that you are very fast to bail on a trade that turns against you. I am not yet recognizing when it is within the realm of normal variation, and when it crosses over into a bad trade. Will watch your signals more closely. Thanks for putting them out there.
I am not yet reading signals well enough to trade on days like today. Was this especially confusing for others?
Thanks for your help.
OUT AMZN July3 $317.5 Puts @ 1.70 (-1.53) OUCH!!
BOT AMZN July3 $317.5 Puts @ 3.23
BOT XOM July 3 $103 Calls @ .57
Cereal prices so high, it's becoming a luxury food.
Thanks Roy - sitting on ORCL July 3 & 19 $41 calls as well - huge gap to fill.
OUT MU July3 $31.5 Call @ 1.67 (+.20)