Here is a model that I've used from time to time. I think it is the one I last used for GNTA.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/06/BiotechValuation.asp#axzz20iX92RRU

Don't preach "buy out potential" to me. I've been doing this for a long time, and most of what I buy in the biotech field is on buy out potential. There are a few thousand developmental biotech companies out there, and 99% of them are better buys then this.

I suggest that if you are interested in this field you do a little research on valuation model for these types of companies. I did an analysis on this a while back. It put the value of the company just about where it is now. But the problem is, when I did it I used a total debt of $13.5 million. Now we have been told that it is nearly 3 times that.

But you resort to the same tactics that all hypes do. You throw out some legitimate article that makes a point that you want to use, and then somehow imply the it would apply to this company. Well, good luck there.

I own two of the companies that you mentioned (HGIS and ILMN) and owned the third (AMLN) on a recommendation that someone posted here on this board. I sold it because I was up over 100%.

All three are light-years ahead of GNTA. They have revenue (one over a billion dollars a year in revenue), cash in the bank, and real products. Get this- each has a total float of less than 200 million shares. GNTA has a fully diluted float of around 45 billion. Starting to see the difference?

So I'll play your game. How much would GNTA be worth to a buyer? Well, they have one drug in PII trials. It is 3-5 years (being optimistic here) from FDA saying Yes or No. So what is it worth today, when discounting for the time value of money, and the risk of the drug not being approved? PII drugs have about a 40% chance of approval. So what is it worth? I don't have the time to look up the valuation model I did last year, but at that time I figured a share was worth around 0.005. As I pointed out above, I used a debt number far less than what the last Proxy stated. So my guess is that it would be far less.

So let's say there is a company out there willing to take the risk. They offer $100 million for the company. What is one share worth? How about 0.0022? Do the math.

And that is if you could find a buyer for a company who has a record of failed FDA submissions and who will be out of money in a few months. So if you are the CEO of an interested company, why not wait a few months and just buy it after it goes under?

Then there is the 1:25,000 reverse split coming in just two weeks. That is if the SEC and/or FINRA does not step in an stop the re-incorporation like they did the last reverse split attempt.

You forgot a few things...

They are $38.5 million in debt.

The debt is convertible into shares.

The conversion rate will allow 38.5 BILLION shares to be added to the float.

They are 3-5 years away from finishing the trials that will allow them to apply to the FDA.

They have enough money to last 6-8 months.

They will have to issue more debt, and thus more shares.

They are about two weeks away from a re-incorporation that will result in a 1:25,000 reverse split.

Did I forget anything?

Just to let everybody know, Genta filed a report to security holders with the SEC on 7/11/2012. However, they file it on paper, not electronically, so you can't access it through Edgar. I've contacted the SEC and I'm trying to get a copy of the document.

Not sure if this is an attempt to keep information from the general public, or if there is just no way to file the information through Edgar? After reviewing the document, if I see anything that looks suspicious, I will follow-up with the SEC enforcement division.

Hopefully there is no problem. But it is just frustrating to think that some people may be getting information while the shareholders and public are not getting the same information.

They could at least post the information on the Web site so everyone can see it.

If the regulators allow it to happen, yes.

We shall see...

Carl, read the Proxy statement they filed.

It says- about 6 billion shares CURRENTLY outstanding.

It says they have $38.5 million in debt that still that has to be converted.

The current conversion rate is 0.001.

So that is 38.5 BILLION shares to go.

That is 641% more shares to go.

Stop making up numbers.

First- The buying you are seeing IS not buying. It is mostly the transfer of share to the finance people. Even it is were buying, it amounts to a grand total of about $10K. Yes, 20 million shares at 0.005 is $10,000. I did 5 trades bigger than that Friday. 20,000,000 shares is 0.0044% of the total stock of the company, fully diluted.

Second- There are no Funds that own this. Just the finance people. Don't be fooled. We know who they are, all you have to do is read the SEC documents.

Where do you get the 6% number, or are you just making it up??? The SEC documents they filed said 38.5 billion more shares to go and that there are around 6 billion outstanding now. So Carl, are you accusing them of filing false statement with the SEC?

Come one Carl, people are watching. Back up your numbers with facts. How can you prove anything that you say? I get my numbers from documents the company files with the SEC. Whey are yours coming from?

Carl, here is the problem- If there are 45 billion shares issued and outstanding, which there will be once all are converted under the current terms, then any money they make will be split 45 billion ways.

So if they:

Finish the PII and it is successful; and
They start and finish a PIII and it is successful; and
They file an NDA and the FDA approves the application; and
The drug makes it to market and is successful; then (and only then):

They will make money.

So if they make $100,000,000 PROFIT each year (that will require sales in the billions, which will take a few years to ramp up to) then apply a PE of 10, you get a price of 0.02 per share.

But, they only have enough money to last about six more months and all the above will take 3 to 5 years. So they will have to dilute it even more. If the past path is followed, they will have to issue at last 100 billion more shares, which will decrease the value by 2/3rds. So it will be worth about 0.006 per share, which is right about where it is now.

Who said the market is not efficient?

This is fairly priced for a compete and total success. But if one thing in the above list fall short, then it is over priced. And the chance of everything going perfect? ZERO. So you have to discount the 0.006 for the time value of the money you invest and the possibility of failures. So the actual value is far lower.

So if you want to give them your money and let them hold it for for 5 years on a 20% chance you will ever get any of it back, go ahead. But the better bet at this point is to wait to see how they do the conversions AFTER they r/s. If they do it in a way that is favorable to retail investors, then I will be buying.

But if they do the same crap they have done in the past, I'll just wait for the total collapse that will eventually come, and I'll be here to pick up the cheap shares of this or the remaining company.

Gary, the problem right now is we don't know where they are going to set the conversion price at.

If they put it at a reasonable price, I'll be buying. But if they are going to let the finance people convert at a 300% or 400% gain (or more), then I won't. Heck, they could set the conversions at any price they want. They could leave it at 0.001, give them 39 billion shares, and the price will DIE as soon as it starts to trade after the R/S of 1:25,000. That is the scam here. We just don't know.

So wait. That is what I'm doing.

Carl, are going to keep posting lies?

The Proxy statements says they have a total of $38.5 million still to convert, when all are converted. That means that we still have 38.5 BILLION new shares to dilute this crap. With about 6 billion currently outstanding, this means they there will be 45 billion outstanding in the end. So that is about over 700% dilution.

Keep hyping, people are watching...and taking names. An SEC subpoena is not a fun process to go through. They make the IRS look like kids play. Every e-mail, every record, every telephone call, and every trade is examined to determine if a person is a paid hyper or just a stupid fool.

Depends on what you call micro.

There are currently about 30 biotech companies trading under a dollar that have a market cap under $300MM.

My favorite:

CVM has a good drug in PIII. Trading in Mid 0.30's. Followed it for years and made a lot of money on it. Current game it to buy in the 0.30's and sell in the 0.50's. I'll keep doing this until it gets close to the PIII being finished. Then I will go long.

Others-

CLSN
TRGT
ECYT
ONTY

Do your own DD. Read what the company is doing, what they are have in the pipeline, and what the finances look like.

I stay away from stocks selling at less then a penny.

Not me, you posted it.

SEC- Read Carls post!!!!!!

Only you Carl.

Post false rumors Carl?

Well, you can play a fraud if you understand what the fraudster is doing.

I will look at this hard after the r/s. If the numbers are right I will buy a little. That is how I make money.

I have no illusion that this is a long-term hold. But if they are playing the pump and dump game, why not join in?

The trouble here (on this board) is that people have been hyping this as a long term stock hold. It is not. It is a SPECULATIVE stock trade- NOTHING MORE. Buying this long has NEVER been a good idea. But many were sucked in and lost money. Had they listened, they would not have.

And that is how I make money. I HAVE made money on GNTA in the past. If you follow this board you know when. People trashed me when I challenged them on buying the stock. It has not been a good buy in the past year. But if they get the share structure in better shape, it will be a good SPECULATIVE TRADE again.

If it is not for you, fine. But I'll buy if I see the chance.

No, retail shareholders have no chance of stopping or changing anything. If you read the Proxy you will find the insiders and finance people own 102.6% of the stock. Now I'm sure you will say how can they own more stock than is available? But they Proxy is based upon filings that go back a ways, and the numbers are not exact.

What about all that buying you ask. I can't tell you. If you are in the finance group, the last thing you want is to be holding shares. Someone has to buy the shares after you convert or you don't make any money. So that is the great mystery.

But the point is that they collectively own the whole company. I'm not sure of the total number of owners there currently are, but I remember somewhere that I saw the number around 400. My guess is that retail investor own far less then 2% of the company. So, no you don't have the votes to do anything, even collectively.

Everyone knows I don't own many shares. And even those are just in case there is a civil suit (class action) filed. But I see one benefit of this quasi-reverse split as getting the share count down to a reasonable number so that we can understand who owns what. It is a lot easier to see numbers in the hundreds and thousands then in the billions. It will make it harder for them to hide things.

If you read my posts in the past week you get the hint that I might be buying after the R/S. If they do the 1:25,000 and set the conversions at a reasonable number, this becomes a decent trade for speculative investors. Note the word speculative. If you buy after the split, forget making 100's of percent profits and settle for 15% here and 20% there. Do that enough and you can make some real money. Each time they release news there will be a spike. With the share price at $2.50, and the share count at less then 500K, any positive news will spike it up. Holding a few thousand shares at $2.50 and selling into a 20% news pop will make you a nice little profit. Then it will settle back down. Then you can do it all again.

Only go long when they get closer to the NDA. But that is years off. In the meantime you can make money playing this. And here is the kicker, with you trading this for the pops you are actually helping the company by making the market for the stock.

But the key is the conversion price. If it is too low and they get billions and billions of shares, there will be massive selling into any news and that will hurt your chances of selling into a pop. If the company is smart they will work out a deal where there will be a enough conversions to get finance people their money back, but not so much to that it kills the price like it has done in the past.

With $38.5 million in conversions sitting out there, and the company needing money in less than 6 months, they better get their act together soon. I think this is their last shot at getting it right.

Finally had time to read through the Proxy this morning. Most is pretty standard stuff.

But I did find this:

I added the underline and bold. I added it because that points out how bad this has actually gotten. I used $10MM in my post yesterday to calculate the amount of debt outstanding and how many shares will be received when that debt is converted. This document puts that number at $38.4 million, convertible into 38.4 billion shares. There are currently about 6 billion outstanding. No wonder they are worried. When all the debt is converted this will be diluted by about 700% from where it is now. This will not change after the corporation switch, it will only change the number of shares. The ratio will be the same. So a share you own today is really worth about 1/7th of what it is selling for, fully diluted.

Man, how did they let this get this screwed up?

But the point yesterday and the point that still is, where will they set the conversion price for the debt? Until we know that, I'd stay away for any additional purchases. Then when we find that out, I pay close attention to that number and the number of shares that you buy, until we see much dilution will result.

If anyone can find anything in the Proxy about how they will do future debt conversion, please post it. I looked and I can't find it. Might have to go back to the actual 8K for the debt to figure it out.

Brad, I don't think it is "trading" much here.

I think you are seeing a couple things:

1. The shares moving through a broker from the company to the finance people. They have to get to their accounts somehow.

2. Short covering by the finance people. They sold short during the runs, converted, then they move the shares to a broker to cover their shorts.

Remember how last week where the conversions were changed and we had all the volume? Well, that proved the movement of shares from the company to the finance people shows up as trades, and falsely inflates the volume.

Well, it depends. See my earlier post. It all depends on how they reset the conversion prices.

If they reset it at a reasonable level, say 25-50% gain on converting and selling, then I will be a buyer FOR A TRADE ONLY.

If they set it at 75-99% under the post split price, I'll sit back and laugh at anyone who buys and gets stuck again.

So all we can do is watch and wait.

Examples-

Good
Price of stock- $2.50
Conversion price- $1.25 (50%)
Number of shares they get- 8,000,000 (Assumes $10MM to convert)

Or bad
Price of stock- $2.50
Conversion- $0.25 (90%)
Number of shares they can convert- 40,000,000 (Assumes $10MM to convert)

So they can decide what they want the investment world to think of the company- Are we just doing this to make money or do we want to be a real company?

Well, for once, I disagree with the other side.

I think if they can get the outstanding under 500K, the price in the $2.50-3.00 range, and the conversion set a a reasonable price (say somewhere around 50% of the price to start), this could actually be a good move.

However, all the facts are not in. We do not know for sure where they will price it (based on the r/s), or where they will set the conversions. If they do something stupid, like set the conversion at a 90 discount to the price, then this will fail again. Consider a price at $2.50, a conversion at 0.25, then it will just drift to 0.25, as the number of shares they can make for the conversions will outstrip demand, and they price will drift down toward the 0.25 conversion price.

But if they set conversion price at $1.25 or higher, then any news could cause a big demand, and they could sell shares into a pump, and the rate of conversion might not keep up with the demand, causing the price to actually go UP. Remember, the float would be very low at anything under 5MM shares outstanding. Ever own a low float stock in a big run? Makes a short squeeze look like child's play.

I would not buy this now. I would sell most of my shares before the details come out. Then if they set everything right, buy in and hope it works. But if they set the conversion too low, stay away.

OH, one more thing- When they do this they need to change the ticker to something TOTALLY different. And if you are changing the incorporation information, why not change the company name at the same time. This one has too much bad blood, at least make it LOOK like a different company.

If they do this and get the price to 2.50/shares, there will only be 240,000 shares outstanding, giver or take a 30K. The conversion price will still be at 2.5. But they will lower the rate down a bit, soy to 2.00, and the game will continue.

But suddenly, they will look like a very different company.
A $2 stock will less then 1MM shares will be interesting. Any news will cause the demand to sky-rocket, and they will meet the demand with the conversions. Could get interesting. Might actually be a buy after it is over- IF YOU WANT TO TAKE A CHANCE.

Only question I have is- Will the SEC and FINRA allow this to happen? My guess is no.

The existing shareholders get screwed, but new people might make some money. We shall see...

Don't worry, I call some of the males here hypers to. Hype is hype, boy or girl, man or woman.

Well, you might be right. I see the hyper Queen is back. Posting old news trying to suck in new meat.

This may be a sign that they are starting another cycle. But I'd be careful until they file a Definitive Proxy to cover the one they file a couple weeks ago with the blanks. My guess is that they are trying to skirt the ban on reverse splitting this stock by changing the the corporate structure.

I'm not sure how happy that is going to make the regulators. And the last thing you want to own is a stock where the SEC and FINRA have an axe to grind.

This could get even uglier real quick, if that is even possible (it is pretty ugly already).

It has lost over 35% of the value in a week. Go back to the last run and it is down nearly 60% for the people the hypers sucked in. Sooner or later some wise-assed attorney is going to see dollar signs file a class action. That will be when the fireworks really kick in...

But read this:

and



So did they just cut out some of the investors? Somebody is going to be really pis.......

Just got home and saw it. Nice way for them to twist words.

It just allows them to convert more this week. Remember the company officials own a lot of this debt, and they got those restricted shares recently. This allows them to dump more of the convertible shares, which is what we have all seen them doing this week.

Someone needs money, it seem like. I think this is all front-running prior to the switch to the California Corporation. They will do a quasi-reverse split when that happens.

But I bet they don't know how much new regulation they will face in California. Can't wait until they find out. There are reasons why people incorporate in Delaware and stay away from California.

Well check the deals. Who are the note holders.

Quote:

They can't do a R/S because they did so many that the regulators won't let them do another yet.

But they are reincorporating and the papers for that give some hint that they may try to change the share structure somehow.

People need to stop buying this and force their hand. Someone needs to go to jail.

They did not buy them, they were given to them.

Last I saw was just under 5 billion shares outstanding.

However, that 8K was reported the same day as the 8K for the grant of the free shares. So I assume they are included. Which was filed first?

They still have a lot of shares to be issued as the finance people convert. If they have not changed the terms of the conversion, there should be about 10 billion more shares to be issued. But it will never make it to that point. They will do something before all that is done.

So maybe one last dump before going belly up? 800 MM shares at 0.0005 is $400K.

Remember that they are all involved in the finance deals. So they have lots of shares to sell.

I've seen a lot of crap companies in my days of biotech investing, but this one has got to take all.

Watch out for a quick switch. The new company structure is interesting. So they get a quick $200-500K each, do the switch, readjust the shares, and it will be a different company with a new share structure. My guess it will get a new ticker before the end of the year.

It looks like those free shares in the 8K last week are being sold. It would make no since for the finance people to sell at these levels.

Now if they reset the conversion and did not tell the public, they are done. Next stop would be jail. I don't see that happening.

But if the insiders were granted free shares (see last 8K) why sell of you think something good is coming? You don't. And they are killing the company. Almost like they want to...hmmm.......

I go away for a few days and all crap breaks out. What the hell happened to the price...oh...sorry...but I told you so...

Quote:

It is not a positive that the finance people have billions and billions and billions of shares sitting available to them at 0.001.

The game here is: The company hypes the stock, the price moves up a bit, the finance people dump into the move. They have a long way to go before they are finished.

It is a bottom, but an artificial one. It is not support. Once they readjust the conversion factor of those shares you will see the drift right down to the next conversion point, like we have seen here about 20 times over the past 5 years.

They are currently in PII trials. That will take 12-24 months to finish.

Set up for the PIII- 6-12 months.

Running the PIII- 24-36 months.

Prepare data and file NDA- 6-12 months.

FDA time to review- 6-12 months.

So I'd say we are 4-6 years away from an FDA decision.

See the problem here?

The Finance people control so many shares, they can flip the Bid and Ask any way they want. You can't rely on what you see.

Cbrad,

You should sticky the SEC link I posted to this board. People will be looking for that information more and more.

Here:

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/880643/000143774912006027/genta_pre14a-072612.htm

yea, kind of. The fill in the blank is because it is a preliminary filing. So the terms are not set yet. But you got the rest right.

I think they have found a way to get around FINRA blocking a reverse split. Looks like they are going to re-incorporate in California and at that time try to "re-adjust" the share count.

My guess is that FINRA is watching (or someone will complain to them) and they will stop this from happening. We will see.

It just shows how desperate this company has become, something I have been warning was going to happen. They HAVE to find a way to make the Finance deals work. They have too many shares in the fully diluted to go out and get money again without some changes.

While I have been one of the few hoping for a R/S, I hate that they are doing this this way. This really turns off REAL investors when they see this type of move while doing DD. It is a warning flag.

It is going to get interesting this summer.

People need to read the Proxy statement very closely. There are some interesting things that will happen it some of that is approved. And not good things.

Well, I don't know about jail, but I can see a really good class action law suit coming down the road.

My guess is that they are going to wait to file until just after the NDA is filed, then everyone who has bee screwed will get a shot at the company, not just those doing the screwing...

Thanks Hoops, I'll give it a look and add it to my watch list!

Put down the crack pipe Carl. Now back away from the key board and grab your head and ask- "Why do I post this stuff?".

Here is a clue for you Carl-



That is Genetech, NOT Genta. STOP POSTING LIES.

Link please? Because it is not on their Web site.