Stick to what you know. You'll be glad you did.
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Anyone tried contacting Ping? Maybe she has a an idea...it would be nice to see if she has an inclination as to what it could be, or if she is still confident in her research..
Well, most of the CGS stocks have already sold off tremendously today. Selling them short or buying puts on stocks unrelated to CCME other than the fact that they're CGS stocks makes no sense at this point, IMO. Your advice could very possibly cause someone to get there ass handed to them in both directions. If CCME's news is bad, it might cause more selling in the sector, but some of these stocks that are already beaten down beyond belief could just as easily bounce back from these levels...sell the rumor, buy the news type deal. It was different when CCME was heavily margined and a huge drop would cause some major selling pressure across the board, but that no longer holds water as the margin is virtually nil.
You still own the contracts, so yes, you can exercise them if you really want to, and they're in the money. That's different that trading the contracts.
I'm pretty sure that if the stock is halted, the options are halted..
He didn't say it would trade down to $3.00, he said it would immediately trade up or down $3.00 from where the stock was halted depending on whether the news is good or bad.
I think it's just the combination of the lack of communication and the looming deadline for the 10K.
If memory serves me, the current testing for lung cancer not only can not detect cells nearly as early as Biomoda's test, but it is also only around 65% accurate. If we get in the 90+% range, I think this becomes the test of choice, period. Especially considering the relatively low cost and nonintrusive nature of the test.
Yes sir, thanks for making me aware of that. If I decide to start a board, I'll send you an invite.
I think you'd be surprised at how many want to discuss the stock (sometimes) rather than ONLY the fundamental story of the future business. I think these boards are used for both, and this isn't my first post on here, although it has certainly been a while. Not trying to rain on any parades though, and didn't mean to offend you guys.
Okay, well I'll try not to speak up anymore, but I was not talking about risk tolerances; I was talking about ensuring and maximizing profits. GLTY as well.
You still act as if it is a certainty that the results will be out in a few weeks. Until the results are out, you shouldn't discount the possibility of another delay. That may only be a few more weeks, but it's still going to lead to some panic/uninformed selling. I hope you're right though, no question.
On a lighter note, where do you see this going from that point? They still have to go through Phase 3, correct? Will they be able to start selling CyPath after phase 2, or do they have to finish phase 3 first?
Yep..I agree. Hell, I'm long some March call options, and I'd love to see them file on time. That said, my primary interest regarding CCME is the long-term sustainability of the business and the auditor thorough vetting the company so as to have a clean on confident 10K signature. If my call options go to 0, then I made a shitty trade, nothing more, nothing less. I can't fault CCME for DTT not finishing the 10K on time...that was a risk I took buying March instead of April's.. I've got some April's too.
The company has no fiduciary duty to people holding options.
Yes, exactly! A bad result is "curtains" as you say, so wouldn't you want to be riding free shares instead of all the money you initially invested? It's one thing if you bought today...you're taking that risk on the hopes of it going higher from here. I'd still say that at $.44, if you bought today, you should take your risk off the table.
I bought at $.1125 in the hopes of it going higher..it did, and I got my initial investment out. Now, no matter if this goes to 0 or $100 I have pulled out my initial risk. The only risk at this point is opportunity cost. Don't forget that delays can still happen. Go back and read what The Rainmaker wrote about the last year and a half. In Sept 2009 they were expecting to have results in Dec 2009. That obviously didn't happen, but it didn't mean "curtains"..no, it just meant another great buying opportunity. Never rule out the possibility, because shit happens...sometimes. Then you're opportunity cost is that you could have sold here and bought back for half (or less). Then you'd end up with double or even triple the shares you hold now, for the same money.
The beauty of a micro cap stock is they move far and fast..but it works both ways. I'm not here to watch my money go up and down a bunch of times, I'm here to make money. The only sure way to keep some profits is to sell some shares for a profit. It's simply a way of hedging your position.
I can really see both sides of the argument.. The problem with expecting them to file on time is they don't exactly have a history of doing that.. It goes back to expectations...do you want to expect a timely filing and get disappointed, or expect a late filing and be surprised if they don't file the extension..
Good post...I agree, this is a pretty good interpretation of what happened over the last year and a half or so.. It was around Aug/Sept 2009 that I came across the stock, traded in and out a few times, and finally bought 20K to hang on to at $.1125 a few months ago. Didn't buy more in the single digits like I should have, but like you said, there was a lot of uncertainty swirling with the stock.
I still say you have to protect yourself by selling some when you have a double/triple (whatever you're comfortable with).. You can use those proceeds to buy more if it falls, or just be happy that you can't lose your initial investment. It takes some pressure off when/if the stock takes a tumble, which penny stocks do quite often.
Regardless of the great potential this company has, it's still a penny stock. You have to take that into consideration when buying/holding the shares, especially after such a strong run that we've seen in the last few weeks. Any delay or disappointment and we're back to the single digits, IMO. I'm long, and really indifferent to the direction of the stock at this point, since I've already got my initial investment out. if it drops down to the low teens or single digit pennies, I'll buy more, if it runs higher, I'll sell a bit more, lock in a nice profit and hang on. Remember, if you're not selling, you're not making any money...that's my only reason for selling some shares here. Sure, I may be missing out on some bigger gains, but I might also be grabbing 20K shares for what I sold those 10K shares today for in a few weeks/months.
No, usually the material change is the change from the previous period's results. IOW, 2009 net income was 42M, so earnings of around 100M is a material change in the business. That is how they have disclosed it in the past...
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1399067/000114420410042544/v193181_nt10q.htm
3) Is it anticipated that any significant change in results of operations from the corresponding period for the last fiscal year will be reflected by the earnings statements to be included in the subject report or portion thereof?
x Yes o No
If so, attach an explanation of the anticipated change, both narratively and quantitatively, and, if appropriate, state the reasons why a reasonable estimate of the results cannot be made.
We anticipate a significant change in our results of operations from the corresponding period in the last fiscal year. Based on currently available information, we anticipate reporting net income will be in the range of $27 million to $29 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2010.
Sold 10K at $.22 today.. Now holding 10K free shares from $.11. This should be an interesting few weeks ahead..volume has been strong. Either something good is coming, or the company is trying to raise more cash, and is pushing the stock higher before doing so..don't underestimate that possibility. However, we should be getting some news of the recent study soon, so it may very well be folks that are in the know on this info bidding the stock up.
I'd argue that Herb Greenberg has made his own hit piece on LLEN, slandering the company and it's BOD on CNBC multiple times..
In my view, this adds credence to the 2 and 3-tier cities that CCME has been targeting. Just goes to show you that these "migrant workers" as the shorts like to call them, are actually a target for advertisers.
What, no invite?
You know who can't cover there ass in all of this? The CEO. He's long just like me. Guess who else, the CFO just bought 1.5M shares. He can't sell those within 6 months, so he can't cover his ass. Guess who else? Dorothy Dong bought shares in the stock. I'd say we're in this one together..and they have the goods.
Well, this will be the 2nd Deloitte audit, so I'm sure that won't be an issue next week.
Starr is protected for the preferred shares only. Not the $10M in common shares that he bought from the Lin Brothers. Deloitte conducted the audit last year and Starr required DTT to come in an make sure everything was in order. They also hired AC Neilson to do market research. If something was about to blow up, I think Dorothy Dong would have already resigned from the BOD and Starr would have liquidated its shares.
Well, they could just buy the contracts back at a much lower price as time decay and (them assuming they're correct) the share price dropping significantly lowering the intrinsic value of the calls. Also, if we trade down to the $5's or single digits, I'm sure that would mean there is a lot of selling going on. Just giving you my view of what someone selling a bunch of ITM calls would be thinking..
Tiger Blood?
You've caught a lot of shit on these boards in the last few months. I'd just like to state that you're as valuable if not more so than anyone else on the boards, and you have my respect. Thanks for all the info you bring to the boards. I appreciate it.
It already dropped..the shorts drove it down in advance! Now they have to drive it back up with the lack of effectiveness of this "hit piece".. Eventually, the games don't work anymore..
I don't think it's likely to happen, but if someone like FMCN or a huge institution were to take a position that was larger than the the half the float, the shorts would ultimately be at the mercy of this stakeholder as to where they would be willing to sell those shares. Especially considering the fact that it would stoke a huge rally upon people seeing an FMCN (or reputable insti) take that stake.. Just saying it's an outside possibility, not trying to get anyones hopes up.
I'm not talking about a regular normal trading price.. I'm talking about a short squeeze where shorts are forced to buy at whatever price the shareholders will sell them at. The shorts are pushing there luck to extreme levels here. If it were to jump to that level, it wouldn't settle there, it would be a squeeze and retreat to more market acceptable levels...
They can't do it without Cheng Zheng agreeing.. The good part of having one person own a majority stake in the company. I'd love to see an attempt at a takeover, as it would stoke amazing interest in the stock.. I'd love to see someone corner the market for CCME shares and drive this stock into the triple digits...something that truly is NOT out of the realm of possibility..
Who are they? A new short chop shop or do they have any credibility?
So your investment thesis relies on someone else not getting frusrated during a short attack?
What exactly does that mean? Those sentences are as broken as Jackys english..or maybe I'm delerious..
There will be competition for this market. There a re a couple of companies that do ads on trains over there, and one is a SOE.. I'll send you the company names when I get back home Sunday. I left my computer at home..and dont have the report on my iPhone.. Maybe someone else has it though and can share.
seems to be the group belief that they are not allowed to buy back shares until they release earnings.. They're in a quiet period.
Switow was launchd in late December, so you can't track it for 2010. I'm sure they'll break out the Switow numbers starting in Q1 2011 though, as it should be considered a seperate business segment the same way they seperate airport/intercity/embedded ads in different segments.
In..just had to get one shot in on Pearson before I agreed! :-P
I think it's great that he's short. He gets everything else wrong, why not this? In my view, there are a few different kinds of people in the market. There's the buy and never look at it again folks; there is the buy high, sell low crowd; the buy low sell high crowd; and then theres the buy high sell low and short low (trying to make your money back) and buy high crowd. The last one is by far the worst, because they get fucked from both ends.
The bold represents the group that Pearson belongs to, which is comical because he writes advising people what to do. He's a way better writer than he is a trader/investor, and he's not that good of a writer..
I think he means without the CEO agreeing. There is no chance for a hostile takeover, which is something that could help stoke a run in these stocks if some outside bidder were coming in trying to buy them outright..