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Lighten up Francis....If you have been following along, you would know that I have visited the mill 5 times and feel very good about my investment. You can thank me for having multiple videos on Youtube showing concentrate being produced.
I only raised the BK question because it is irresponsible to not consider it as a worst case given their current inability to pay any bills. I have been saying for weeks now that I feel that our pps would fetch about .02/share from a forced liquidation sale. I have also said that with some patience and a bit of luck, 2010 should be a great year.
BTW....I own over 10 mil shares so I think I have earned the right to be realistic.
F18
I'm not an expert but I suspect the mining rights and contracts remain intact through the BK proceedings.
F18
I agree with only one modification.....
Even if they declare chapter 11 bankruptcy, I do not think the stock goes to zero because the assets are worth something. I believe that even in BK, the assets would be sold for much more than the current debt so the shareholders would get something more than zero. In other words, I don't think the downside is as bad as you wrote. In fact, unless the o/s shares goes to over 10 billion, I think today's pps is priced at less than we would get if we sold the rights to the ore in the ground.
Understand that at today's share price the equity is only worth about 1/3 of the debt. If the debt holders didn't think the assets were worth a lot, they would have foreclosed months ago.
F18
You may be right about mismanagement and wasted money but at least you acknowledge that the money was spent at least trying to make this project a success.
Why? Because they are sitting on an ocean of copper, gold and silver. Mistakes can be corrected. Management can learn or be replaced but those ore bodies can't be found just anywhere.
F18
I believe they have issued some press releases confirming the rumors of significant ore bodies being discovered.
The drilling program is essential to prove up the reserves that will attract the money necessary to grow the project.
F18
Great theory if you time it well....the reality is this could move very quickly back up and the poor guy could get caught chasing it. I'm very comfortable with my investment based on good ol' valuation. Quick hit and run traders might make some good bank on this one but I still think I'll make more with a buy and hold strategy.
F18
How much debt does Freeport McMoran, Phelps Dodge, Rio Tinto have? Very capital intensive industry CPRK is in.
If we produced toilet paper it might be different. Plus, I'll bet you that each of the companies you mentioned had debt when they started.
F18
Debt is often used in most industries. The tech industry is the exception. Google became a multi billion company over night. So did Word Perfect.....oh they don't exist anymore. I guess having tangible assets might be better than something that can be worth a lot today and a little tomorrow.
F18
Time, money, regulators and focus are the reasons. I suspect pride comes in as well. It strikes me that MD is not the type of person who reacts well to being called names.
He is convinced that all loyal shareholders will be handsomely rewarded and everyone else can go to hell.
F18
Yeah..I believe we all would be pretty happy with a $1 billion buyout.
If Massey was willing to give them a $10 million loan to secure our byproduct magnitite, I can't imagine the copper, gold and silver are not worth at least 20 times that yet the market only values this company at less than $100 mil ($70 mil debt and $25 mil equity).
F18
Last year at this same time we had a pps of less than .01 and 2.5 bil o/s. This year we have basically the same valuation with double the shares o/s and half the price. The market for the stock has been stung by dilution and delayed results.
Last year we saw a run from less than .01 to .03 on the hope of something good happening. A similar run in 2010 puts the pps at .015. The main difference is that in 2010 it will run on actual production or not run based on lack of production.
The assay tests confirm that there are substantial ore bodies that IMO are worth much more than today's market cap. The only two questions I have left are whether this mill will ever be efficient and whether this team can deliver positive earnings.
Regardless of those two questions, I have no doubt the value of the ore more than justifies my investment. I estimate $200 mil on the very low end or about .025 per share. It could be substantially more than that but I can't imagine being much lower than that. Mills can be redesigned. Mgmt can be replaced.
What do you think the Chinese would bid for CPRK's mining rights? They could easily supply the infrastructure and the mgmt to get the ore out of the ground.
F18
5 golden rings, 3 silver spoons and a partridge in a pear tree......
F18
I have 13 times your holdings and I agree with you about the way the company is being run. However, I don't think you understand Ch 11 BK.
Everyone is better off if the company survives. If they declare Ch 11, the judge will give them an opportunity to fix things before he forces a liquidation at below market values.
I am unaware of any family relationship between MD and DJ.
F18
So you think the debt holders would take .50 or less per dollar owed? Any you think a BK judge would sit and watch someone take the company for less than fair value? If so easy, then why hasn't it happened?
IMO, it would at least 200 million to buy this company. That puts the pps at 6 times today's valuation.
F18
IMO, if someone could buy up all the stock for $25 mil there would be a long line. However, the company is currently not for sale. All potential suitors know that they could not do a hostile take over because MD and the other insiders could block it in a second.
Can you imagine how quickly the pps would increase if someone came in with just $5 mil to buy in the open market? That is like 1 bil shares at today's prices. Of course they wouldn't get many that cheap.
F18
Could be they are on the verge of a deal and they don't want anything upsetting the apple cart or it could be he drank some bad eggnog.
F18
That is my vote for most level headed post of the day.
F18
I'll bet you could get it to work with some effort.
F18
The closest thing to what you're looking for is US Treasury notes.
F18
X.....you're blaming the wrong cats.
Anyone who believes that today's pps will have any correlation to the pps in 30 days should not be invested in a pink sheet company. In 30 days, the pps could be anywhere from .001 to .25.
This is quite a gamble if you're looking at this day to day or week to week. Do you feel lucky?
F18
With record revenues.....
F18
Johnny,
We don't know much because they are a junior mining company that is not required to report. I suspect that we would not like what we would hear if we did know the answers to all the questions we have regarding the past few months.
While I do believe that past performance does shed some light on the future, I think there are many on this board (pro and con) who place way too much weight (no pun intended) on the past when they really need to be evaluating the future. CPRK is still a start up company trying to make it is a very difficult economy.
The only questions that currently matter to me are.....
1) How long will it take them to be cash flow positive with debt service included?
2) What is a realistic forecast of future profits 1 year from now? 5 years? 25 years?
3) When, if ever, will we get LTF that will allow us to pay more reasonable interest rates for our debt?
4) When all is said and done, how many outstanding shares will there be?
5) If existing management is not capable of maximizing this project, will they take the ship down with them or will they step aside gracefully?
All the irrational exuberance and all the mud slinging does very little to help me answer these questions.
What I have done is visit the project 5 times and witnessed the progress for myself. For my money, at these valuation levels I see limited, but real, downside and potentially huge upside.
I am not in love with management. I have stopped believing their short-term projections because they have not been accurate to say the least. I hope that some day it won't matter much what we have been told before and we will just be grateful for the opportunity to own a large piece of this company for a small buy in.
F18
I know they have projected 80k pound of copper per day before the SX/EW and 160k pounds per day after. At 30% copper in the concentrate that would be 133 tons per day. At 35%, 114 tons.
Either case, we are a long way from those levels. The big question is whether those levels are possible or just pie in the sky. Frankly, I would be pretty happy with 1/2 those amounts.
F18
RDG,
I do not believe Dave Jensen was in over his head. As I understand it, he had some difficult personal issues. Out of respect for his privacy, I will not go into details.
The new guy now has the ball and we'll see if he can move it closer to the goal line. It could be hard for him if his coach keeps calling the wrong plays.
F18
I agree it has a ways to go. That is the risk and the reward.
F18
Nor has it lived down to the pessimistic view from those who only sling mud. We have a producing mill which is a lot further than some were predicting.
F18
Yesterday, I was at a conference for Utah CPAs and we were treated to one of the best presentations I've ever witnessed. The guy works for a large national bank and presented his forecast for the US and world markets.
In a one-hour presentation, he mentioned "copper" about 20 times. He discussed how the Chinese consume about 1/10 of the commodities that we do in the US but that will change as their economy is growing about 9% per year and their people are moving from the farms to the factories. He said that in some places in China they can't find enough workers. He also mentioned how many of these people are modernizing their homes which will require a boat load of copper.
Of course he also discussed India and Brazil in similar ways.
He was so obviously bullish on copper that after his presentation I gave him my business card with Copper King info on the back of it.
He was less confident in the broader US stock market as he feels the next couple years will be difficult because of the commercial real estate problems that are coming and because we will continue to have more pain in the residential real estate markets.
Bottom line for me was that I felt very fortunate to be invested in a copper, gold, silver, magnetite and molly project. With a bit of luck and more patience, I feel this investment can/will be a lifestyle enhancer.
F18
I'm in for another 600k shares. Pure value play to me. You can't tell me the assets of this company aren't worth more than today's market cap.
Gold, Copper and Silver are where the smart money is moving. It will only take a bit more time and patience before the true value is realized.
IMO
F18
JIT...we've heard the rumors of LT financing deals forever. I hope next week they finally land one.
F18
Don't forget that 2 billion shares are tied to loans. If/when we get LT financing and the loans are paid off, the o/s goes to 2.6 billion to 3 billion.
F18
How could anyone not feel good about owning a piece of a gold, copper and silver company right now.
Even if these guys can't pull this off, the value of our assets in the ground grows every day and keeps our downside risk very small.
IMO
F18
On CNBC yesterday they interviewed a ceo of a moly company. Moly is used for high grade steel production and is in hot demand right now. The Chinese are buying it up like crazy and pps of the ceo's company was up 300% since March.
F18
Been watching CNBC a lot the past couple of days while I've been home fighting the flu. Seems Copper and Gold are being mentioned about every 15 minutes.
Gold - We've got an app for that.
Silver- We've got an app for that,
Copper - We've got several apps for that.
F18
Not much but I'm in for another 250k shares.
F18
Bargain prices for cprk shares. 30% discount to what they sold for just 2 weeks ago w/o any real change in the fundamentals of the company. Today's pps will have very little to do with the pps in 3-6 months.
F18
Thanks....I think LTF could happen anytime but I believe it is most likely going to happen once they are truly cash flow positive which could/should happen before the end of the year.
F18
What a great time to be coming out of being a developmental mining company......
Gold $1,150 oz
Silver $17.80 oz
Copper $3.05 lb
F18
Your miracle is positive cash flow and is coming very soon. From there, restructured debt and positive earnings. Soon thereafter, transparency, better listings, institutional buying, dividends, etc.
F18
RDG....
I hope what you say is true but I doubt he is doing all this on his own and that he isn't being compensated. All we know from CM is that CPRK is not the puppet master.
F18
CM said they were not going private......do you really expect them to issue a PR on a rumor?
F18