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"This isn't about me, and this isn't about you. Maybe we can all just keep it real and have a factual and rational-based discussion."
Good idea, but first you have to read and have some understanding of the science.
db
"the reverse split dealings have to be accomplished by Feb 23rd"
Not true.
That is the date to schedule a board meeting.
Typical post though, I don't think you are interested in the truth.
db
One post a day so here it is:
ERHE is under priced based on assets.
It seems to me convertible holders would be unlikely to hold long positions unless they are the last to convert, because they would be particularly aware of the the effect of conversion on share price. With more conversions coming the share price is likely to go down. Take the money. Simple.
I think most believe the assets are worth way more than the market cap, but clearly fear the continuing conversions, and the potential for running out of cash.
We are down 90% from ten cents where I thought we couldn't possibly go lower based on assets. Ha ha.
Tax loss selling is the usual blip that goes away in January, but the other problems remain.
I am willing to bet they will survive to a significant share price increase, but I think there is still quite a bit of conversion coming.
db
I wonder if changing markets will force covering of naked short positions?
db
"someone here indicated that SEO is taking a bath on an electricity initiative"
So your evidence that he is in financial difficulties is a post on this board, and that he was not mentioned in an article on African Millionaires?
Wow.
We certainly need more of your opinion on management.
db
Ha ha,
I guess between one and three billion. For another laugh, wont it be fun if Tullow is bought by the Chinese?
db
He will be gone soon, or he will lose his hard earned shorts. Personally, I am hoping he stays around.
Help solve the karmic debt problem.
db
Market cap now under 14 million!
Used to think it was ridiculously low under 100 million.
Wow.
db
Ha ha,
Had my filter disabled for a week or so, so I could see what the FUD is currently. No surprises, I could write a script for these guys.
Back on now.
db
My impression is they will have similar but unequal effects, providing the opportunity to combine the drugs for greater effect on AZ.The key is they have different mechanisms of action so they can be used for different effects, and combined for greater efficacy. Mullan hinted at this when he said the most likely eventual treatment would be a "cocktail" of drugs.
And I am not worried about delisting. I think the price will move above a buck before that time, and if the market is slow to react or we take longer for phase one a reverse split of say 8 to 1 wont change the market cap in this case by much. Because of our history and distortions by players we are way under priced. My guess is a reverse split, if it happens, will raise the market cap slightly and we will all own fewer shares at a higher price. All just fodder for the shorts. If the science continues to work out it just wont matter in the long run.
db
Hey, watch it! Nurse Ratchet is my mother.
db
"for our compound’s isomers and derivative formulations."
Perfect.
db
I think you are correct, it makes sense that the phase two drug would match the phase one trial. My guess is that would be true in either country. I think they plan to pick a particular application that they think will get through the process the quickest. I am pretty sure they will stay with the formulation they have patented and used in the existing studies. All because that is the quickest way to market.
At the same time, the existing research has indicated that there probably are better formulations for many of the potential applications and they are pursuing them simultaneously. It sounds like they have found an expedited way to come up with new formulations. Since they are starting from scratch with the regulating agencies they may tweak the combinations from the beginning, but that might jeopardize the existing safety info.
I will go back and listen to the presentation for the third time this afternoon if I have time, and reread the releases. The second time was helpful, maybe I will pick up a little more.
db
Further, I would guess that RCPI or partners will establish the efficacy of anatabine combinations to which they have the rights before combining with other patented drugs.
Just my guess, but it seems that showing stand alone value would precede combining with outside drugs.
db
"This sounds like they are changing the formulation for the Phase 2 proof of concept studies."
What I took from the last presentation was that the the Sis and Trans version of the molecule affect different parts of the immune response pathways in different ways. Dr. Mullans and his researchers felt that by tailoring the mix one could address different immune response problems more effectively by differing proportions of the two molecules.
My take was that they want to fine tune the naturally occurring proportions to make it an even more effective drug, and that there would eventually be different combinations for different diseases.
db
You don't have to guess.
In 2013 Pubmed indexed 1,125,683 new papers. And the number goes up significantly every year. There is flat out an exponential knowledge explosion. New research has to be earth shattering to get wide spread attention.
Most Doctors have difficulty keeping up with their own specialty, often limiting what they do to an even narrower practice of a sub specialty, and even then need to know when to punt.
One would have to read and understand a new research paper every 45 seconds or so 24 hours a day to "keep up".
db
Ha ha, now this is funny:
"They will continue to tell others how great the future looks...until they get their shares unloaded."
Why ever would you think that?
And, I think CEPSA left that block because they did not have enough positive information at the time to commit more time and money. IE they didn't see enough prospectiveness to justify the risk. A simple business decision that has nothing to do with ERHC"s block. Big company, small decision. Timelines are there to force decisions. Otherwise why drop a prospect.(think JDZ)
I agree that "we are encouraged" means little to nothing. Reminds me of "we found oil in expected amounts"
Sooner or later CEPSA will move forward or make a similar decision. Then we will know something. The rest of this is the usual blather.
db
Up over 60% from the low in two days on increasing volume. Hoping for a pull back to buy more but this may be the start of a short squeeze. We will see.
db
The rate on a per capita basis is falling but actual numbers of people affected are increasing. More old people living longer.
db
" given the lack of cash in the bank, its only logical they wouldnt have gone forward with an obligation on block 11 unless they had secured (90% sure) a great partner."
ERHE has routinely made financial commitments for which they did not have money on the books. I have little doubt they will find a partner. They needed to sign a PSC, they did, and when they sign a partner they will tell us. Speculation of course until they do. They have eight years to meet the financial commitment or give up the block.
A partner could come soon, or in a fortnight. Won't mention the bunny holiday.
Back to lurking.
All the best,
db
The minnow is moving nicely, on all fronts. No need to make stuff up. There is zero evidence that we have a partner in the EEZ. No doubt we will get a PR when somebody is signed. We DO have a partner in Kenya. Be happy.
db
I don't see a reason not to announce the application. Seems material to me. And they did seem to imply, during the investor conference, that they would announce the application. I will go listen again, lots of good info there. Also due by Monday, at least in my mind, is an announcement about the new human study in Europe that they said would start in the soon to end second quarter.
It may not matter in the long run, but I will be relieved if they announce. Under promise and over deliver is a good rule, especially for new management. Nobody doubts the science background of Mullen et al. They are however new management and need to meet their promises, implied or otherwise.
IMO
db
Low grade pearl
db
The same way drugs are studied with other human conditions. Treat some injuries with the drug, others with a placebo. Many caveats apply, but that is the basic idea.
db
Every few months I go back and take a hard look and come to the same conclusion.
All the best,
db
Yep, as promised.
db
Truly amazing potential.
db
Mostly I stay out of these conversations but this looks like a double bottom to me. A close near the high today would be positive of course.
The incredibly high short interest, a drug that shows every evidence of working for a wide range of applications,(I know it works for me) and pending news for an app with the FDA makes me a buyer now. People have been wrongly calling for a short squeeze for years on this one, but I think it is going to happen, sometime between now and February-March of next year.
db
My guess is the volume will go up quite a bit with the NDI application coming in the next weeks. Promised in the 2nd quarter, could come at any time.
db
Wonder who goes in the water for the rim shots?
It means they are going to make an effort to catch and prosecute naked short sales. I for one hope it is an effective strategy.
db
No market reaction because it is not big news. Nobody but you claimed the farm out was in doubt.
And HDY is now below where it was when current management took over, and my guess is it is going lower. And so do many of the posters on your "moderated" venue. Too many voices to silence now. Great management.
db
Claims a personal hand in change of management. My guess is yes.
db
Just getting a start on his karmic debt.
db
"If any ERHC shorts remain they are rich, not nervous."
Sounds like you meant HDY today.
I feel for HDY shareholders. Tough for anyone.
Poetic for some though.
db
"This study has suspended participant recruitment."
Recruitment suspension means they have the required number of participants. As in no longer recruiting. The study has not been suspended.
Apparently our high schools are failing us.
db
Ha Ha,
I think I qualify as one of these:
"I also believe others on this board do get it and just decline to post or comment...."
I also think you are exactly right about what is going on.
db
let me answer you this way,
This was posted on the HDY discussion board, in answer to a poster demanding more info from HDY. (The poster demanding more info, BDMAC, has since been told he will be dumped from the HDY discussion group if he does not refrain)
" And if you were in charge of IR how would you "get the story out"? You can't force the press to print the story. Nobody is going to believe a bunch of hyped up press releases. Plus, HDY is contractually bound to Tullow as the operator and per industry practices which ONLY allows the operator to release all pertinent info about the concession. Attending conferences and the like is of some use but is very limited. You also can't force analysts to cover your stock.
So, you continually make these ridiculous demands that management do something that is impossible to do. I follow dozens of small exploration companies that are all trying to get their story out. Every one of them tries but none are really that successful in doing it. Getting the story out involves finding oil in huge quantities. That is the ONLY way to make your name known in this business. There is no other way. Sure, HDY could go out and blow a bunch of money trying, but it wouldn't do a damn thing for the share price and that money would be wasted.
The above was posted by killerbee2. LOL
db
Ha ha,
"And don't you come back no mo......"
nice!
db
Clearly they did not take long to figure out that one.
db