I'm continuing along with my underwater 25% short position.

Markets still quite heavily OB at this point.

My last 5 days (most recent first):

Up: 20.6, 14.0, 14.8, 17.8, 2.0*
Down: 5.0, 10.9, 8.5, 4.6, 20.6

The asterisk - I removed the JAVA volume as I thought it was giving a misleading reading.

I kind of got trapped in a short position here, however todays volume numbers may push the OB level to a true OB short.

Will get you my numbers when I get into my office.

Yesterday my NOOV (5-day NAZ up-Down Volume oscillator) backed off from the +35 number that I call a good short. But it still finished the day at a decently OB +26.

Todays 50-50 Up-Down is mitigating the OB. Hopefully the gods will pick a direction and run with it in the final hour.

Well that purge in the final few minutes has pulled my OB signal out of shorting territory.

As usual, I was unable to act in time and will go into tomorrow 1/3 short (NDX and SPX)

Good Luck with the bio's Steve!

My 5-day OBOS meter running hot again at +35. I will short this if it continues into the close.

Nice work on the long Kanuti!

Roca,

I'm going with 200M Up and 2055M Down for yesterdays volumes - sucked out the JAVA as I mentioned yesterday.

The weighted 5DMA is -13.8, which is adequate for a Bull market buy. However I am in cash as I did not opt to pull out the JAVA volume until after close.

The Bull rally is probably getting a little tired here, it will soon be time to return to the Bear side IMO. Steve do you have any opinions on this?

By backing out the JAVA volume, OB-OS model does provide a Bull mkt long.

However it was too late by the time I discovered this. Remaining in cash.

Weren't you short from Friday Kanuti?

Sun Micro (JAVA) appears to account for 70% of the Nasdaq Up Volume today. I think it is reasonable to back this JAVA volume out of my OB-OS model so as to provide a more accurate signal.

Hey my girl enjoyed it and perhaps we'll come back next year - my wife wants to do Sedona, so maybe we'll work something out.

Hi Kanuti,

I was in Arizona this past week and returned today actually.
Stayed at Hilton Tapatio Cliffs for $55/night via Priceline.com. Was there 4 days then went to the Grand Canyon.

Yeah I put out a message a couple weeks ago for you and Steve, but didn't get a response.

At any rate I sold the longs that I had been holding Thursday, and am currently in cash. Wasn't updating volume models, but as you point out I suspect they're decently overbought. Will get to it this weekend.

33% in 1 day!!! That is un-freaking believable!!

And from mutual funds nonetheless! Hope you take the wife out for a nice dinner.

I had to settle for 2%, and 3% for the week.

I typically have a guideline for when to switch from Bull to Bear mode, but am having trouble establishing a roadmap here. With todays 90-10 day, I'd have to think we've still got room to run.

But if Monday is an up day, I would anticipate taking an OB short position.

Steve was your expectation that this rally will soon be running out of gas??

5-day NOOV getting up there again, at about +25. However this is not yet shorting territory. Will let the 60% long ride for Monday.

I just went in for 60% long via Bull and NAZ100.

The RAIM OS long signal isn't very strong, there could be another day or two of selling.

Edit: here comes the EOD ramp

Lookin good today for your shorts Kanuti.

I haven't run the model yet, but there probably will be a long scalp active for tomorrow, should the selling continue.

No its still pretty OB. If the markets head back up tomorrow I will re-short

The short position fizzled out somewhat - finished with a trivial gain of 0.1% or so. Went to cash for manana, although staying short might have been a better move.

Euterp,

Not sure if you've gone and reviewed my previous posts yet.

Let me know if you would like my NOOV spreadsheet, it contains historical up-down volume for the NASDAQ

The short is a temporary move until OB-OS resets.

I assume you have done well in this weeks move up??

I'm continuing to dink and dunk my way to new highs - now up 72.2% since my Nov 20th tracking origin point. The SPX is up 12% in that time.

Initiating short scalp - 25% via SPX and NDx.

The 5DMA NOOV is at +36 which is quite OB.

Yes I too would love the V for as long as they'll give it to us.

Haven't taken advantage very well this time around. However it appears that the straight-line advance phase looks to be over. This should bode well for my style of trading.

I followed the RAIM model and sold 50% back to baseline long yesterday.
So I won't be hitting a big payday, but still looking at 2% today on top of gains the past two days - can't complain too much.

It would probably be easier to review my posts over the past 3 or 4 months regarding NOOV.

I discuss how to calculate it, providing examples in the process.

<<The sell off in the last hour was quite telling coming on the heels of a heavy 2 day sell off.>>

From previous experience in bull environments, I think there is a greater chance that the late selloff was a headfake.

Nonetheless no harm in taking the nice >1% profit from yesterday after the Monday entry.

My 5-DMA NOOV is +7.4 based on after close market internals.

The sell criteria is +5 for bull markets, however this adjusts up and down +/- 5 depending on certain criteria.

But no mattter how you slice it, its a real borderline signal and there wasn't clear direction at the close. A safer play would have been take the money and fight another day.

Its this volatility that gives the RAIM model its biggest successes. Without volatility (or with very low volatility), the RAIM model is rather useless as I've documented a few months ago.

Once I get a long signal, I am pretty cautious - yesterday I only added 50%. Today had the markets continued lower, I would have added more.

By increasing the entry profile, you increase the overall (backtested) historical returns, however I go with what my personal tolerance is.

Market gods were jerking with us today. I had a sell in about an hour from the close, but the late selloff caused me to remove it. Continuing at 100% long for tomorrow.

That said, the final NOOV numbers probably will specify a sell was in order.

Here at work I also use Yahoo market stats, but ideally I would like something real time for days like today.

RAIM has a bull market scalp active for tomorrow, I will be moving my position from the 50% baseline to 100% for manana.

Will review Steve's sector list for underperforming sectors.

BTW the trip to Phoenix for spring break is still on. Hopefully Steve/Kanuti will be available for brews.

Hi Roca,

Yesterdays Daily NOOV (Up-Down VOlume Oscillator) was 89.2. However yesterdays total volume was 17.8% higher than the 40DMA of total volume.

So the 89.2 is increased by 17.8%, giving you 105 for the day. You factor each day's NOOV prior to putting it into the 5DMA.

I have a spreadsheet where I calculated 3/5/10/20 weighted DMA's of NOOV. In hindsight, yesterday would have been a good day to short or go to cash.

I do not use TRIN or anything else as a confirmation. At one point I was calculating a NAMO, but I didn't feel it added much for the extra daily work involved.

Realize that my buy signals are based exclusively off of NOOV, however the percentage that RAIM goes long (once a scalp has been established) on a given day is based on several factors, one of which is RSI4.

Nice to get back in the swim with a 1.5% gain today.

OB-OS indicators getting OB again, but not yet shortable.

Maintaining the 50% long.

How'd it go for you today Steve?

Well I don't use gaps in my trading methodology, but there is a gap theory, and here a study of recent 2% gap-ups:


http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/

Well it looks like my port will get a little juice today.

But charts have gaps all over the place. These gaps will need to fill at some point.

RAIM has initiated a Bull market scalp.

4 out of the previous 5 days have had DwnVol>UpVol, with Monday being the exception.

This situation is producing a decent 5-day NOOV OS level of
-16.

50% long for tomorrow.

Well I went 25% long via NDX and SPX in order to establish a baseline position.

Should tomorrow be strong down, that will in all probability initiate a RAIM bull market long scalp. I'm still frothed about missing Fridays RAIM scalp. That called for a 60% entry, but 60% of yesterdays 7% market gains would've tasted better than the zero sandwich that I digested.

Hi Steve,

Yes I should have a baseline long position now that we're in bull mode. I will look to build that up to 50%.

One of my hard and fast rules is to never go long on an up day. Today may give an opportunity to establish an initial long position - will go about 25% should the markets stay down.

My port is still 65% up from Nov 20th, so I've got that in my back pocket. But I was really counting on scoring big on this rebound. SPX up over 20% and maybe I've caught 3%.

What sort of work do you Choad??

Roca,

I should also point out that the RAIM model uses a modifier when calculating the daily NOOV.

Take the current days total volume over the 40DMA of total volume. If the current day trades 1.2B shares, and the 40DMA is 1B shares, then the current days NOOV would be increased by 20%

Mebbe I should just give it up. Failure to act on Friday cost me a bundle today . . .

Hi Roca,

I will need to get back with you Monday. My updated model is on my office PC.

However I can confirm that the 5-dma is weighted - If memory serves the most recent day gets 35%, the least recent is 10%. The middle three is something is the range of 25-15-15. I would guess those weightings will get you close to the -13 figure I cited.