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It's VERY oversold here.
I'm in at $3.77 FWIW.
I'd like to see a real 10% correction.
Something that I could throw some cash into and have some faith that I'll make some money.
You may get your correction now.
Things are pretty ugly premarket.
JASO is testing $4 and if that fails your $3.50 should be the next stop. Oil is pulling back and FSLR has broken thru its last support level which won't help JASO.
If they were already sold short then they would just transfer the shares over to cover and not have to pay a broker to execute a plan, right? That's my understanding of how shorting against the box works.
Also, the current short interest is:
7/31/2009 136,250,626 61,729,733 2.207212
So it seems unlikely Citadel has 120 million of that, don't you think?
Nice?
"provides that a broker will sell up to 120,000,000 shares of E*TRADE common stock for Citadel in accordance with a predetermined formula"
They're going to dump up to 120 million shares over the next 2 months. How on earth is that nice?
I've looked at the other two most recent selloffs.
http://www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/analysis.pl?symb=JASO&num1=3&cobrand=&mode=stock
And it looks like it takes roughly 7 trading days to reach a tradeable bottom.
If that holds true this time then your $3.50 seems likely. I was originally thinking it might hold $4, and that's the price I'll be watching very closely.
3 day rule for a bounce?
The price to watch is $4.90.
http://www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/analysis.pl?symb=JASO&num1=3&cobrand=&mode=stock
If it fails to hold $4.90, it looks likely it'll fall back to the low $4's again.
This is further reinforced if you look at a chart of FSLR. While JASO has been showing relative strength, FSLR is back flirting with 3 month lows. If the street decides the recent enthusiasm has been misplaced, you'll get that fall to the low $4's.
JMO.
UPDATE 1-JA Solar posts Q2 net loss, shares slip
* Shares fall 7 percent in premarket trade
NEW YORK, Aug 11 (Reuters) - China's JA Solar Holdings Co Ltd (JASO.O) reported on Wednesday a wider quarterly net loss, as tight credit markets have cut demand for renewable power and sent prices on solar panels into a tailspin.
The second-quarter net loss was $28.5 million, or 18 cents per share, compared with a loss of 1 cent per share a year earlier.
Revenue slid 51 percent to $88 million. Analysts had been expecting revenue to fall as low as $66.7 million, according to Reuters Estimates.
Earlier this month, JA Solar unexpectedly said its chairman, Baofang Jin, would take on the role of chief executive. Former CEO Samuel Yang is now vice chairman, reporting to Jin.
Shares in JA Solar fell 7 percent to $4.88 per share in premarket trade. (Reporting by Matt Daily, editing by Gerald E. McCormick)
There was bad news out of FSLR today.
It's down 11%.
FYI.
re: 22c loss
Remember, they just diluted the heck out of the stock, so that 22c per share would have been a much higher number with fewer shares.
So year over year numbers aren't apples to apples unless you modify them for the shares outstanding at the time.
Not at a buck it's not.
But it beats having the hammer dropped by the regulators.
They're not doing it because they wanted to.
They're doing it because the Feds told them they had to.
Have you guys ever even seen a snake? LOL!
Sorry. Couldn't resist.
I hope you did!!!
Keep an eye on the market, though.
Things may get a whole lot cheaper over the next month if this pullback is finally for real. The S&P is currently back under its 200dma and that's very bearish. A close under 900 will bring in alot more selling.
I wonder how many shorts used that to cover?
No wonder it was over subscribed.
$1.10, sheesh.
This could be big for JASO.
There was this Barrons article over the weekend.
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINN2442033920090524?rpc=44
"One leading customer says it will ditch First Solar's 'thin-film' panels if crystalline silicon alternatives keep getting cheaper. That seems likely," the paper said.
BUSINESS SUMMARY
JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd., through its subsidiaries, operates as a manufacturer of high-performance solar cells. It offers crystalline silicon solar cells. The company sells its products worldwide to solar manufacturers who assemble and integrate solar cells into modules and systems that convert sunlight into electricity for residential, commercial, and utility-scale power generation.
10:56AM E*TRADE: S&P lowers E*TRADE Fin Corp rating to 'CCC-' from 'B'; on Credit Watch negative (ETFC) 1.45 -0.08 : Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said that it lowered its ratings, including the long-term counterparty credit and senior debt ratings, on the co to 'CCC-' from 'B'. We also lowered our counterparty credit and certificate of deposit ratings on E*TRADE Bank to 'CCC+' from 'BB-'. We have revised the CreditWatch to negative from developing, where the ratings were placed on Dec. 22, 2008. "The rating actions reflect our concerns that E*TRADE urgently needs to reduce its heavy debt burden and inject equity into its subsidiary, E*TRADE Bank. Failure to do so could lead to supervisory action by the Office of Thrift Supervision, its chief banking regulator. Even without the threat of supervisory action, E*TRADE's financial capacity to service its outstanding debt remains weak," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Charles Rauch.
The key is not fighting the flow.
If they report really great numbers it will be back in play and there will be plenty of time to make money on this one again.
If they do poorly, it'll get smacked down and we can play it from the bottom at some point.
That's great advice!
It has sold off hard into the Q1 numbers and if they aren't good it'll get crushed.
I'm waiting to see what happens, but wish you brave souls holding long for the numbers all the best.
Thanks marine!
I missed that.
So what happened yesterday?
That was a really nasty reversal.
The quarterly report is Monday, right?
At this velocity it could be back under $1 real soon.
Once it dropped back under $2 it is no longer marginable so the bulk of the margin calls are today and tomorrow.
Your $1.40 printed.
It was a very odd trade, though, as the bid was $1.50.
You still buying there?
It still looks extremely weak today.
This has some good info.
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10493779/1/etrade-stock-hit-by-capital-concerns.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA
"Moody's Investor Services on Wednesday placed E*Trade's debt ratings on review for possible downgrades, while at least two equity analysts told investors to sell the stock, mainly on concerns about the company's capital situation and the potential share dilution investors could suffer in addressing it."
"E*Trade said that after discussions with its primary banking regulator, the Office of Thrift Supervision, the company was alerted that it needed to add to its capital levels at the bank and holding company "quickly.""
"Matt Snowling, an analyst at Friedman Billings Ramsey, said the risk to shareholders would be "significant" as the company "needs capital not just to stabilize the bank but to de-lever the holding company as well," he writes in a note. "Therefore we recommend investors exit [E*Trade] now."
The bigger problem is that regulators are asking the company to de-leverage the holding company, Snowling writes."
I'd also worry about the coming downgrades.
Last quarter they waited about 3 days and then kicked us while we were down.
Maybe everyone already has ETrade at SELL and there's nobody left to downgrade. LOL!
And the lower the price goes the more dilutive it will be.
I find it really disappointing that Layton has let the company fall into this situation.
No way Etrade gets TARP money now.
The Feds would not have sent them to the street to raise capital if they were going to get TARP money.
So how do you hold the common stock overnight now knowing any morning you could wake up to a massive dilutive funding?
Until the money issue is settled I think this is a daytrade only stock.
I show the AH low at $2.01 - WOW!
[ETFC] E-Trade says it needs to improve capital position
4:09 PM ET, Apr 28, 2009
looks like 41 cent loss. link.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ETRADE-FINANCIAL-Corporation-bw-15059374.html?.v=1
First Quarter Results
Total Net Revenue of $497 million
Provision for Loan Losses of $454 million
Net Loss of $233 million, or $0.41 per share
Total Daily Average Revenue Trades (DARTs) of 194,000
Record brokerage accounts of 2.7 million, with net new brokerage accounts of 63,000
Record customer accounts of 4.5 million, with net new accounts of 56,000
Total customer cash and deposits of $34.4 billion
Total net new customer assets of $3.5 billion
Capital and Liquidity Metrics
Bank Tier-1 and risk-based capital ratios of 5.63% and 11.85%, respectively
Bank excess risk-based capital (excess to the regulatory well-capitalized threshold) of
$451 million
Corporate cash of $406 million; Bank cash of $3.9 billion; unused FHLB lines of $10.0 billion
E*TRADE FINANCIAL Corporation (NASDAQ: ETFC - News) today announced results for its first quarter ended March 31, 2009, reporting a net loss of $233 million, or $0.41 per share, compared with a net loss of $276 million, or $0.50 per share, in the prior quarter and a net loss of $91 million, or $0.20 per share, a year ago.
The Company reported total DARTs of 194,000 in the first quarter, an eight percent year-over-year increase, although a 10 percent decrease from the record levels of the prior quarter. The Company added 63,000 net new brokerage accounts during the period. At quarter end, E*TRADE reported a record 4.5 million customer accounts, which included a record 2.7 million brokerage accounts. Customer net new assets were $3.5 billion during the quarter. Total customer cash and deposits increased $2.1 billion, in part due to the continued growth of the Complete Savings Account despite a 1.56 percentage point drop in annual percentage yield during the quarter. Margin receivables declined from $2.8 to $2.4 billion.
“E*TRADE’s growth in net new brokerage accounts and customer assets was the result of a renewed focus on our core investor base, strong activity by existing customers across a full range of products, and a gain in market share versus traditional brokerage firms,” said Donald H. Layton, Chairman and CEO, E*TRADE FINANCIAL Corporation. “Transaction volumes were also strong in the first quarter on continued volatility and late-quarter rising markets.”
Commissions, fees and service charges, principal transactions, and other revenue for the first quarter were $202 million, which compared with $224 million in the fourth quarter. This reflects lower revenue from the decline in DARTs from last quarter’s record levels, fewer trading days in the quarter and lower revenue from principal transactions, partially offset by an increase in average commission per trade.
The Company reported net interest income of $279 million, an increase from $274 million in the fourth quarter, as a result of maintaining the level of interest earning assets and a slight increase in the interest income spread to 234 basis points. Total operating expense declined by $27 million to $294 million from the prior quarter and declined by $60 million year over year.
The Company continued to make progress during the first quarter in reducing balance sheet risk, shrinking its bank loan portfolio by approximately $1 billion from last quarter, of which approximately $700 million was related to prepayment or scheduled principal reductions.
In the home equity portfolio, which represents the Company’s greatest exposure to loan losses, special mention delinquencies (30-89 days) decreased 25 percent in the quarter, while “at risk” delinquencies (30-179 days) declined five percent. Total special mention delinquencies for the Company’s loan portfolio, which also includes one- to four-family and consumer and other loans, declined by 10 percent in the quarter.
“We continue to believe that E*TRADE’s loan portfolio is further advanced in the credit cycle than the broader industry,” said Mr. Layton. “Our home equity portfolio is showing signs of improving performance, with declines in special mention delinquencies in each month of the quarter; however, continued deterioration in the one- to four-family and consumer and other portfolios necessitated further reserve building this quarter.”
First quarter provision for loan losses decreased $59 million from the prior quarter to $454 million. Total allowance for loan losses increased $120 million to $1.2 billion, or five percent of gross loans receivable, as the Company increased its one- to four-family and consumer and other portfolio reserves. Total net charge-offs in the quarter were $334 million, an increase of $27 million from the prior quarter.
The Company reported Bank Tier-1 and risk-based capital ratios of 5.63 percent and 11.85 percent, respectively. The Bank had excess Tier-1 capital of $288 million and excess risk-based capital (i.e., above the level regulations define as well-capitalized) of $451 million as of March 31, 2009. The Company noted that subsequent to the end of the quarter, it injected an additional $150 million of capital into the Bank.
“Given the uncertainties of the current environment, we believe that it is necessary to further improve the Company’s capital position,” said Mr. Layton. “We have been increasing our efforts to reduce the size of the Bank’s balance sheet and the associated risk, to deleverage the Parent company’s capital structure, and also to generate additional capital to inject into the Bank.” The Company noted that such efforts would involve public market issuance and/or private investors and would create significant dilution to current shareholders; deleveraging of the Parent would also substantially reduce its interest expense.
The Company also noted that its primary banking regulator, the Office of Thrift Supervision, has advised the Company to address these capital requirements in the near term, including both raising new capital for E*TRADE Bank and reducing the leverage of the Parent holding company. One alternative that the Company continues to pursue is the U.S. Treasury’s TARP Capital Purchase Program which, if it is made available, would likely have additional conditions that would also produce significant dilution. The Company can not predict when or if its application will be acted upon.
Historical monthly metrics from January 2006 to March 2009 can be found on the E*TRADE FINANCIAL Investor Relations site at https://investor.etrade.com.
The Company will host a conference call to discuss the results beginning at 5:00 p.m. EDT today. This conference call will be available to domestic participants by dialing 800-683-1525 and 973-872-3197 for international participants. The conference ID number is 93649598. A live audio webcast and replay of this conference call will also be available at https://investor.etrade.com.
tanking AH - $2.30 but I cannot find the news.
well...
They started selling mortgages again and I have no idea how that will affect the quarter. It may help with the guidance, though.
If accounts were ahead of target and # trades was reasonable and they don't beat, then that would mean they took a larger write down on the mortgage stuff again. That would bite.
If they have been telling the truth and the mortgage side is out of the woods, they should handily beat estimates and have glowing guidance.
But I haven't bet on Layton in a while. LOL!
They have to beat & not warn.
That's something that hasn't happened in over a year.
That would really mark the start of the comeback for me.
Not me.
That exceeds my risk threshold. LOL!
Best of luck if you do, though.
Finally!
It finally broke $3.
That took forever - LOL!
It was very weak again yesterday.
I'm certain we'll get it to break under $3 towards the $2.50 price. We just need to be patient.
I'm still trading ETFC in the meantime. It had another huge day yesterday for me. I'm back in the mode of not taking anything home overnight and that has been the right way to go this week so far.
Good luck all!
I feel another shopping trip coming on!
I'm in about the same spot.
I'd love to see the market pull back 10%.
A nice test of DOW 7000 and then let's do this all again.
You can make a ton of money in a trading range as long as you don't forget to take your profits.
Is she going to break $3?
We've been waiting a long time.