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wooowwww.......
with a forward looking pe of around 2(current ask 17c).it is cheeeeeeeaaaaapppppp........
ooops....
the same one they have been saying it for the last 4 years.woow,low expectation get you far.
please tell me more....
real or imaginary.floor is all yours.
what changed(fundamentally) from 3c........
not much except
never ending "pump and dump"
how much longer can this go on? i believe when price is down below 10c,those who shamelessly claimed how great this pos is,would start disappearing. looking forward to see a quieter board with much less needed bs.
capc is facing headwind from.....
1 macro
2 perception
3 long pooped
4 fundamental
...
...
update on my betting odds
up to 50c+ 40% chance
down to 10c+ 60%
not good for the longs.ouchhh.
industry leader facing headwind......
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/peloton-hikes-subscription-fees-slashes-bike-price-activist-urges-company-sell
not good for the longs.ouchhhhh.
from 3c to $3 bucks......
and now down below 20c.What is next?
50% up to 50c+
50% down to 10c
or
perception says up
reality says down.
i believe 3c again has a 10% chance or when the board gone quiet too. future looks dim for the pumpers.ouuuuccchhhhhhh.
mexican standoff continues.......
factors beyond everyone control:
interest rise
labor inflation
cost up due to inflation
cost up due to supply disruption
...
...
unless the company can do
revenue expansion(yes)
margin expansion(no)
positive free cash flow(no)
burn rate less than zero(no)
...
...
i believe its value(ex-ceo) of ivfh would be difficult to be realized in the current market condition without a huge discount.value trap for years to come.ouuch.
disclosure-i have no shares and waiting to buy only when ivfh earning turned positive.i am in new mexico now,checking out a company with covid-19 testing locations.it just had a 2c earning and selling at 1/3 of the ivfh price or with a projected pe of less<2.wwwwooowww.
pappas is a dud so far.i guess he falls for sam's trap: growing the topline as all cost and at some future date,the bottomline falls inline.the only problem to this is replenishment of money is needed on a regular basis,with more good money turn bad.the question becomes,how many more suckers left to burn before sam capitulates?
as a passive investor,i would not bet a dime on this company until sam is neutralized or gone.
likely scenario of net income......
assuming business model stays stagnant(1%-2% overall margin improvement per annum at best)
projection:
2022 -3 million(loss)
2023 -2 million
2024 -1 million
2025 break even
or
time to go long(buy) is 2024-2025 below 20c.
2021 4q .....
what i have so far
$20.8 million revenue
$14.7 million cost(70%)
$6.1 million gross
$6.0 million expense(29%)
$0.1 million operating income
net profit $1.7 million with $1.9 million forgiveness of debt
or
net profit -$226k ex forgiveness of debt
for all 2021
revenue 62.2
cost 45.3(72%)
gross 17.0(27%)
expense 20.5(33%)
operating loss -3.6
net income -0.8 with 3.4 forgiveness of debt
or
net income -4.2 adjusted for forgiveness of debt
again,the pricing model 100%(revenue)-72%(cost)-33%(expense)<0%(loss) is structurally flawed: revenue growth without margin expansion,more losses in 2022 very likely.
also
share dilution of 10%-15%(in 2021,from 34.8 to 39.4) is likely/needed to continue in 2022(expect 39.4 to 44) to shore up the balance sheet.
discounting is a sign of...
1 use as a leader to generate more business in the future
2 desperate attempt to move the duds before further drop of price
i believe it is somewhere between 1&2 and my head says more toward 2 than 1. why: you don't drop prices of hot selling item,which with limited supply,at a deep discount. plus another issue: how would you feel had you bought a mirror at $799,and now dropped to $599?it sucks.
pricing power???????????
new promotion price offer from capstone.....
$799 smart mirror dropped to $599
$999 smart mirror dropped to $799
i just received the offer today and have until midnight est to take advantage of it.
i believe smart mirror demand is below company expectation. the million dollar question: how much below its expectation???
my guess: will see 20c stock price in few weeks with 50% odds.ouuuch.
Where have all the pumpers gone?
Long time passing.
Where have all the pumpers gone?
Long time ago.
Where have all the pumpers gone?
The other stocks have picked them every one.
Oh, When will you ever learn?
Oh, When will you ever learn?
ooopppp...
correction:
"but
cash down to 350k
ar up to 400k(1183k before a 783k adjustment) from 185k.ouchhhhh."
to:
"but
cash down 350k
ar up 400k(1183k before a 783k adjustment) from 185k.ouchhhhh."
was 2/22/2022 pr totally misleading...........
and turned us into suckers!
2/22/2022 pr release:
"Net Medical Xpress Solutions (OTC PINK:NMXS) said today that unaudited preliminary numbers show the company recorded net income of $301,285 in the fourth fiscal quarter ending December 31, 2021. Total revenue was $821,399."
without disclosing
"medical billing allowance of $783,000",and later added to the fourth fiscal quarter on 3/11/2022.
my concern:
3q cash/ar 946k(761k+185k)
vs
4q cash/ar 1017k(411k+606k)
or
q/q change:
income increased to 301k
but
cash down to 350k
ar up to 400k(1183k before a 783k adjustment) from 185k.ouchhhhh.
is nmxs padding its topline at the expense of abnormal ar write down(and unable to collect)?
does this seem right(too much)?
from https://www.otcmarkets.com/otcapi/company/financial-report/323348/content
concern:
account receivable,net of allowance of $24,000 and medical billing allowance of $783,000,.......
company argument:
"The Company estimates an allowance for doubtful medical billing, which amount to $783,000 and $0 at
December 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively. The Company started performing Covid-19 testing in 2021 and
therefore medical billing did not begin until 2021. The estimate is based upon management’s review of medical
billing accounts and an assessment of the Company’s historical evidence of medical billing collections."
is $783k recoverable/reversible(likely) in 2022 or all gone for good??
i guess wager on the covid is on its way out.......
along with covid related services and replaced with energy/commodities play.
ps-a covid(or soldier) never dies it just fades away.
with pe=2.....
this stock is cheeeeaaappppp.wooowwwwww.
ps-sold all my stock over a year ago.i am back.
spot on....
the thought of going back down to 3c,however unlikely,can be a powerful intimidation checkmating any push by the long for a long time.once the speculators are fearful,i believe the stock can be had below 10c again.oouuucchhhh.
new prediction in 2022:
10c 25% odds
$1.0 25% odds
update on my 2022 prediction......
from 1/1/2022:
first message of 2022......
capc stock price:
49c at year end(2021).
will it go down to 30c(90% drop from a high of $3) sometime in 2022? 33% likely.
and
will it go up to 75c(75% drop) sometime in 2022? 33% likely.
as of today:
so far we hit both,wooowwwww.
price going forward:
i have no idea,but i do know this stock in not for the clueless/dreamer.oouuccchhhhhh....
bottom line(questions)....
stock gone from 3c low to $3.0 high back to 49c so far,or 1x to 100x to 13x,is it a classic pump and dump about to end badly?? and those who paid $1.0+ are you the pigeon??ooooch.
or
49c to $3.0+ soon,with eps of 10c(pe=30) within a year.what is the odds?10%- likely.ouuuuch.
ps-another bad sign for the likely pigeons,"pie in the sky" posting are on an exponential decline.
i wish your $2 projection is not just a pie in the sky.....
and trapped as a de facto bag holder.i believe the odds is not in your favor.
why:
capc mirror is getting old and stale,no material improvement,all fiat so far,except what's in your dream.
the question becomes......
1 you could have sold it and made 10x(using a medium price of $1.50,not $3.0) and not just a meager 2x,can you not freaking out?
2 did investors buy it at 15-20c range?no,because it was way too expensive than,according to the old consensus.why?i had it way below 10c.
3 will this fiat stock ruin the day again(down below 30c)for the long(those who paid a suicidal price of $1.0+) in 2022? i think so,33%-50% likely.
ps-optimism without fear is taking you to the poor house.
first message of 2022......
capc stock price:
49c at year end.
will it go down to 30c(90% drop from a high of $3) sometime in 2022? 33% likely.
and
will it go up to 75c(75% drop) sometime in 2022? 33% likely.
this stock is pure speculation,my argument,not much had changed since 2019,management wise.has the market changed with less optimism? 66% likely.
using pulaton(pton) stock as benchmark/argument:
high(last 12 months) $171.09
low $33.91
today $35.76(78% drop)
oooops,i may be a bit too liberal(not 33% but 45%) on the 30c stock price projection in 2022.
ps-i am biased downside.how low?not much different than last time:10c or less.
last day of trading....
as of 11:28am(new york):
ask 56.5c
bid 53.5c
happy holidays everyone and hoping you have bought low and sold high.
it is the impact of....
fx or us dollar vs korean won effect.
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=KRW
not good........
the odds(of dropping to 50c)just changed to 66% instead of 33%.
posted on 12/16/21:
"50c on the horizon......
33% chance and soon."
thanks.....
just one motivated buyer,would tip the balance and perception.will it happen in 2022?? i hope so,50% chance that is.happy holiday to all.
50c on the horizon......
33% chance and soon.
ps-many moon ago at 20c,the fundamental was better.
again,
i am biased price down.i would buy it again only when it dropped below 10c.ouuchh.
greed vs fear and.......
million dollar question:
if you are fearful,will it go down to 3c again?
if you are greedy,will it go up to $3 and soon??
gentleman,place your bet.
er is out and we have......
revenue of $15.2 million vs $11.2 million,up 36%(great)
margin 24% vs 25%(problem #1)
sg&a 33% vs 39%(problem #2)
loss -$1.3 million(exclude ppp forgiveness of debt) vs -1.6 million
or
margin expansion of 6% asap is needed to make the current business model work(break even that is).if not and at the current margin of 24%,the revenue needed for the breakeven point is around $25 million.
or
4q 21 loss of $0.5e million
1q 22 loss of $1e million
2q 22 loss of $1e million
3q 22 loss of $1e million
plus
headwind:
inventory $2.8(3q 21) vs $3.7(4q 20)
margin capped by 3rd party shipment
i believe breakeven point is 3 years away,unless they took drastic measure and worked.
this er would confirm investor of good money either.....
he is a turkey about to be harvested
or
sam delivered and no longer a turkey himself.
be happy you are not a turkey on the chopping block,and happy turkey day everyone!
again from the 10q....
https://www.otcmarkets.com/filing/html?id=15355011&guid=IY3wkeHsBruuh3h
cash $932k
calculation:
buying power 1000 units = ($932k-$619k(burn rate per q)) / $300 cost per unit
you see a pie in the sky...
more power to you.how likely becomes the million question?how strong is the supply chain??how reliable is the product???......3c to $3 then down below $1....now down to 50c????
being here,done that.......
here we go again.same question remain: can the management deliver??
concern-
inventory $25k
burn rate $618k(per q)
cash $932k
smart mirror buying power 1000 max without share dilution.
10q is out...
revenue $3,616k(below $4,000k expectation)
gross profit $1,121k(31%,lower than 35-40%)
eps 3c or 1.5c without tax benefit
balance sheet:
cash 14c(per share)
a/r 12c
total liability 9c
...
...
any time stock price below 25c,it is a steal.
ps-fx effect was not included above.
from 10q....
https://www.otcmarkets.com/filing/html?id=15355011&guid=IY3wkeHsBruuh3h
revenue $44k
loss $618k
cash $932k
inventory $25k
i believe the odds of going below 50c is probable.not good for the long.ooouchhh.
again get rid of the stock now.....
so you can it back later and cheaper,as the bubble pops.the million dollar question,how low can it go?????i believe next support to be tested is at the 50c,not good and with a 49% chance.oouuucchhhhh........mommmmy!