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it took a power dump of 40k to get this to close negative in a down 4-5% market disaster.
Looks suspicious for shorting.
If this had closed green again on a down 5% market day, it would have shown up on more screens than it already is showing up on. Chart looks good for those non-fundamentally focused people. Fundamentals look great as well.
There is a NEJM article from 9/11/08 with regard to GnRH agonists for Endometriosis which states that the prevalence is 10% of women population.
Thats 15 MM U.S.
Your interpretation of the docs is not 100% correct.
Efficacy's avg price is likely more like $6. They were buying in 2005 when stock was 4.
If that happened Dew would be gone for good. He told me I was dead shorting more at 15.
He didnt notice that Visium dumped and Ridgeback who is falling apart had to power dump.
Efficacy buys more shares. Looks like they have the Hoover out vacuuming up.
Dew I covered. Ended up doing well. Thanks for your concern.
I'm not sure you are correct. Take a look at Roche buying Arius and Efficacy was a top shareholder. I'd go as far as saying Efficacy is one of the only ones making money in this market.
That was pretty illogical. Someone dumped 30+ thousand into the bid at the end of the day on a Friday when there usually is the least amount of liquidity. Is this more shorting or some JV portfolio manager?
The bear case changes so often it's hard to keep up. Now someone was talking about people getting iron in the acute fibroids trial and how that will screw things up.
What is your cause for concern?
What is the major bear case against rprx?
That it has safety issues or causes cancer or something like that. He has gone through all of the data and FDA correspondences and his specialty is cancer- Burnham Institute used to be called La Jolla cancer something. A guy like this also knows a lot of pharma industry participants.
Case in point- someone trickled out 3k shares to push it down 40 cents when there was no bid. now there is a bid for 4000 at 6.86 and mr seller is gone. What short doesnt love to sell into minimal liquidity?
Shorts are back to the 'ole dump and bid. A finite shares dumped into "1" bid and then that number of shares appears as a lower bid.
It boils down to some pessimists/shorts believe they are more adept at reading data and FDA compliance than someone like John Reed, CEO of Burnham Institute, who just went on the board and has access to the information.
It's just crazy what some investors/funds do in this sector- that's why there is a long line of carnage/redemptions/funds closing past and present.
New filing out
Efficacy buys more shares in open market.
Well it looks like the NBIX longs just figured out that elogolix sucks compared to Proellex. It's quite possibly a stampede out the door between BVF, RA and Federated.
Let's see what the short interest is as reported tonight for the trade date ~ Sept 25. Last short interest was 1.28 MM. My guess is 1.7 MM.
Cantor advertising 100k shares to buy yesterday. Wonder if the shorts just realized there is no stock for sale and they shorted 1.5 MM shares pre-deal.
Goldman has zero borrow left on the name.
Huge change from 1 month ago.
Short interest over 2 MM in my opinion.
We will see what the number is as of the deal on next Thursday.
Just today you figured out she sucks?
IMO there is little doubt the short interest is close to 2 MM shares. Many of the brokers covering the stock were talking only of an impending financing when the spoke of the name and little about fundamentals. I think this was of sufficient surprise. Perhaps now the discussion will turn more to fundamentals. In one corner we have a guy who just went on the board with a 100 page resume and who has seen the data in detail and FDA correspondences and in the other we will have some of the FUDsters on this board who have speculated about smoking guns, etc.
The open of this equity above $7 should give you a feeling for the current short interest. My guess is 2-2.5 MM. It wont be reported for 2 cycles of short interest. Next weeks report covers 7 or so trading days ago.
Sidney-
There's no place for politics on this board but while you're at it, the Democrats and their institutions Fannie and Freddie helped create a housing bubble and cause many to lose their homes but also helped crash some large financial institutions and cost jobs there.
Both sides are at fault.
hp
I am glad to see you found a location in TX with power so you could post- never mind the hurricane, you had to get to a computer to post. Thanks for saving us all.
On another note- Is the Texas Board of Medicine HQ in Houston and if so, were their records destroyed so they could forget they took your license away?
hptaxis is a de-licensed doctor who is trying to "advise" the company, imo.
What a joke.
Looks like at 6 months NBIX drug VAS was down about 45% whereas Proellex i believe was down 65% (down more equates to more relief) in 2 months. Better proellex efficacy. My question is was there stat sig bone loss (forget about the 2% limit) and will FDA require more than 6 month data?
I think the guy may have lost his medical license and is trying to pay his bills by attempting to promote his shell company and trying to generate consulting fees. The guy would be better off if he just used some money to buy some stock and reap the future rewards.
I have 3 questions for Hptaxis:
i) Are you a doctor?
ii) Do you still have a license to practice medicine in Texas?
iii) What is your motivation for contacting the largest shareholders?
Anyone with a 40 IQ and software from Capital IQ (Delta Reports) can print out changes from Q to Q in a track changes mode. Or one can read.
Not sure why he is so fast to bash- these Androxal designed studies are based on FDA correspondences.
Dew if you are so concerned that something misleading is going on you should:
i) take a look at how long it took Neurocrine to enroll its endo trials
ii) look at Neurocrine Phase 2 press releases which give no mention of numbers related to efficacy (left me asking where are the p values just like i was left asking where are the curves at the Alz presentation for bap in Chicago).
As far as I know the responses for the fibroids trials through effective targeted advertising generated enough patients to fill both chronic phase 3 trials and both safety open lable trials. Feel free to call the company to confirm this.
They learned a lot from the endometriosis trial about how not to enroll a study. Changes were made and as you saw from another press release, the fibroids trial already had sufficient patients in less than expected time frame.
I wish you did more research.
Where are all the people who were buying in the mid 30s. I am long now and want to see this go up. You guys cant be down and out yet- BUY MORE! Post some things about bappy being approved early on P2 or EDT selling for $500 gadzillion! Let's get you guys more excited about the story and talking about it! Let's go!
If the company raises money, you should think about how they would do it- marketed deal or take down the shelf with existing holders. I would suggest you look at who held a sizable position in Arius which was bought by Roche and how much cash this entity may be sitting on.
Two points:
Many of the scientists involved in the trials were at a Gerson Lehrman type event and many noted the possiblility of P3 providing solid approvable-type data was 10-20%. Certainly not a layup.
Secondly, to io's point defending management and saying that management wasn't responsible for some of the expectations. I would ask the following: Why did so many analysts on the 2Q erns call prior to full data release ask if they would be filing early to which management had to tune down expectations- i think its unlikely the analysts expectations of an early filing had nothing to do with mgmt's exuberance.
I am curious b/c i covered a seven figure share short position Friday in 10s. Just was trying to get a feeling for what the bulls were thinking in terms of price targets in the coming months if there were single digit #s of PML (1:3000 or less)- my thoughts are that with Tysabri unscathed and no value for bap it is worth $15-16 but this is mitigated potentially now by Martin's lack of credibility and a potential financing (EDT wont sell if it does for more than 800-900 MM which is not sufficient to fund operating losses and repay debt).
Looks like someone is using an algorithm to accumulate a little bit today. all 100 share prints intermittently lifted from offer.
io,
What is your PT for ELN in 3-6 months assuming a limited # or no new PML cases?
$13-15?
But they have to finance which could provide overhang?
Just curious.
Thomas,
If the stock goes to $150 I will lose what I made on ELN last week. I'm not too worried.
In the meantime you should take some time to talk to Mr Wheeler, as many have. I dont think he's quite as bullish as you and pls ask him about the terms of the Sandoz agreement and if he is happy with them. Then ask him about generic conversion of proteins/hormones vs conversion of small molecules and you might not like the answer.
i think you might have prematurely celebrated.
awesome post dew. Thanks
i emailed you