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Obviously being up is a good thing. Unfortunately we will not know the real story until the conference call tomorrow though. Unless they give all of the answers that I have questions about regarding the current pending contracts. That tells the real story of where we are headed in the coming months. Seems to be I may have been wrong or off a little bit but in a good way this time so far. Usually I'm off a little bit but to the bad side. This time I said fuel cell will probably be somewhere in the 180s prior to the earnings release by the end of the day today. Seems as though we may actually push over 190. Just hope for some sort of a beat on revenue and earnings per share.
I have been accumulating after down turns for years and keep thinking soon, but never felt as strong about it as now. Perfect storm. The only question is funding!! We need to validate how these projects are getting funded and it's definitely to the moon. It will blow by Plug then very shortly (within months) thereafter Ballard. LI, Toyota, Exxon, Canadian oil sands, Navy base, S. Korea, expansion nearing completion, hiring many recently, and Beacon Falls will happen. We need $$$$. Chip needs to identify how LI is getting funded, no general statement like "funding is not going to be a problem".
I knew Bldp was looking toward $5, and even $5.50 if next quarter is good $5.50 is a walk in the park. But, like I said, far more % upside potential with FCEL and ultimately with verification of funding will pass Ballard within months!! Less than 24 hours for numbers the Q & A in just over 24 hours is the moment I've been waiting for. Im sure many of you have too. But to those of us sticking over ten years, here we finally go. And to all, good luck. Chip has to be right once in a while
Yes he does! However the funny thing is a complete blowout quarter would only lead to about maybe a hundred percent gain. And I'm not complaining I would be happy with a hundred percent gain right now it's definitely better than a loss or no gain. But if this were Plug Power and they had this kind of stuff going on with this kind of income potential and they blew out a quarter, stock would go crazy three to four times where it's at. We'll find out soon enough but like I said I'm looking for $4 by mid March.
This is a neat video you should watch it it's not just about fuel cell cars.
https://www.google.com/aclk?sa=L&ai=DChcSEwiMkcfd6cvYAhXbgrMKHfS3BxUYABAAGgJxbg&sig=AOD64_1Uc81-pq5P2377zArMgHd4jIEbgA&q=&ved=0ahUKEwiylb_d6cvYAhUxleAKHdF1DK04ChDRDAhv&adurl=
Sorry. Meant to say movement that may not really last. And quarterly report. Not Court. I will try to take my time to proofread before I post. Sorry
Yes but like I posted yesterday we may get movement it's not going to last Wednesday evening or Thursday morning. If there's nothing really significant in the court of the report the conference call may have a significant impact. You can bet your bottom dollar I'll be tuned in. I only had a few hundred dollars is available to do anything with so I bought some extra shares today. That combined with all my other little purchases over the past few months will give me some decent spending money and not deplete my long-term investment. Really planning on hitting at least that $4 mark by mid March unless they really screwed up this time.
Yes I have gotten a kick out of that line when entering this website ever since they sign the contract with Toyota. However I don't know if anyone recalls the contract they had with Air Products several years back in California. They open the station with a fuel cell at a wastewater treatment plant that provides the power at the wastewater treatment plant as well as creating hydrogen for the fuel cell vehicle refueling station. I haven't heard nor seen anything about that in years.
I believe you misinterpreted I may have had a text error or type O because I voice text most of my stuff but the analysts are expecting 25.4. I'm expecting more. And if we beat by more than a couple of million it should have a fairly decent impact on the stock. As well as if we beat by more than a few pennies on Lost per share. I don't see any significant difference unless there's a big beat. But if we do get a big beat and they make the future look bright and cheery we could see a run up over that $4 price Target a couple of analysts have.
They said $40-$50 million equivalent in 4th Qtr to S. Korea.
Likely no news prior to ER, and will get movement after ER based on revenue and pps quickly if there is any significant difference than expected. Expect loss of $.18-$.22 with revenue of $25.4 Million. Anything deviating more than $1 million either direction should cause some movement or $.01 over or under -$.20 per share. Unless numbers are very different ( like a couple million beat or miss, or $.03 or greater off of $.20) the real movement, or lasting or continued movement will be determined by the conference call discussion. Even though Fuel Cell companies in general are not trusted for what's said, the direction of the price Friday and the following weeks will be more effected by the call. Like I said, unless there is a bigger miss or beat. I'm very optimistic about bigger beat but that's trusting the delivered and were paid for S. Korea!! We have Q1 earnings release early March too. So I'm hoping if not Thursday, we aren't too far off numbers and March will be the $ from S. Korea. I'll take 1/2 ($30 + million) in the 4th and 1/2 in 1st quarter. If we beat 2 quarters in a row, it's definitely to the moon. The "real investors" believe when 2 consecutive quarters are good. That's why I'm watching Ballard. They got 1 and follow FCEL I think in about 1 month. 2 more trading days!!!
Sorry for the long post based on Plug Power however it does reflect the fact that fuel cells are becoming a viable option and plug power's management has not done a good job. Whereas I believe fuel cells management has done a much better job. And if they are indicating that plug power has potential to make investors millionaires and Fuel Cell certainly has that option much more realistically and much quicker than Plug Power.
FINANCE
Could Plug Power, Inc. Be a Millionaire-Maker Stock?
Jason Hall, The Motley Fool
Motley FoolJanuary 6, 2018
The future of renewable energy is very bright. Solar and wind are becoming competitive with fossil fuels as cheap producers of electricity. Battery costs are falling sharply, potentially changing the calculus on the necessity to maintain "baseload" power plants. At the same time, cheaper wind and solar will make production of hydrogen cheaper, helping bridge the gap for what has been a bit of a "holy grail" of renewable fuel for transportation and remote power generation.
And with well over a decade in the business of making fuel cells, Plug Power Inc. (NASDAQ: PLUG) has grown its sales from less than $20 million per year in 2005 to over $100 million the past 12 months. But over that same period, its stock price has fallen 96% as the company has issued new shares to keep afloat, washing investors out in the process.
A hand reaching for a stack of money on a rat trap.
Image source: Getty Images.
Are we on the cusp of seeing fuel cells finally emerge as a major force in renewable energy and transportation? Could this result in Plug Power finally reaching its potential and investors riding the company to riches? While it's not out of the realm of possibility, the company has been a terrible investment so far. Until management can demonstrate it can operate within its own cash flows, that seems set to remain the case.
Revenue growth hasn't added any value so far
Over the past year, Plug Power's sales are up 21% and has increased 62% since the beginning of 2015. But over that same period, the company's GAAP earnings and cash flows have worsened:
PLUG Cash from Operations (TTM) Chart
PLUG Cash from Operations (TTM) data by YCharts
A big part of the problem is poor execution. As much as the company has grown sales with agreements with big customers including Amazon.com and Wal-Mart, which use the company's equipment to power forklifts in its distribution centers, it has failed to run that incremental revenue into profits. As a matter of fact, "operational efficiencies" are driving gross margins down. Management had forecast adjusted gross margin between 8% and 12% in 2017 but now expects a range of 5% to 6%.
The big problem here is that manufacturers should gain operating leverage from higher volume, since fixed costs are spread over more products sold. Plug Power hasn't seen that happens so far.
More equity destroyed, balance sheet has worsened
To add insult to injury, the company sold more stock over the period to raise cash, increasing the share count -- and diluting existing investors -- by 27%. This isn't a new thing for Plug Power or its investors, who have seen the company issue stock on a regular basis just about every year since going public. Over the past five years the company's share count has more than tripled, in part because the company has been forced to raise cash to fund the business. The company has also added about $40 million in debt over the past year.
For years the company has steadily burned through its cash and diluted investors. That situation hasn't changed in recent years, even as sales have improved:
PLUG Shares Outstanding Chart
PLUG Shares Outstanding data by YCharts
At the table shows, Plug Power raised a lot of cash in 2014 after selling a lot of equity, but it has steadily burned through that cash even as it has had to issue even more stock.
Until Plug Power shows it can change, don't expect it to change
Hydrogen fuel cells are far more viable today than at any point in history, and it's likely that their use will only grow from here, especially as hydrogen production costs fall and the infrastructure improves. At the same time, there will be opportunities for investors to do well.
And eventually Plug Power could become one of the companies to profit. However, so far the company has only proved adept at destroying shareholder value, not making millionaires. Until management demonstrates it can meaningfully improve cash flows and turn the growth in demand for its products into better operating results, it remains a stock investors should probably avoid.
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Given historical activity and the last time they had bids and selections let's assume it comes out at the last minute or is even delayed a little as it was last time. My guess is the end of June be the earliest but it may actually be pushed back until August. Really won't hear any solid news about Beacon Falls until at least June.the end of summer let's say August. I'm not banking on that for a boost before the end of summer. Although that may be what pushes it over $10. I'm more interested in the fact that there's only three full business days before the annual earnings are released.
I would agree if Beacon Falls were the only thing in the pipeline it was significant. Beacon Falls is an application that will be submitted very soon but there will be no decisions made for at least a couple of months. In fact selections will be in the summer. Once we secure funding for the Long Island projects the stock should easily make its way to $5. By summer hopefully it will be over $5 is then a project like Beacon Falls would push it up over $10. That's as long as there's no really bad news about fuel cells in general or no significant setbacks within Fuel Cell Energy
Oh I'm hoping a lot more than that during the year. I'm just hoping for at least a 50% at the time of the quarterly report. If we aren't up over 200% from where we are right now at some point this year I would be more shocked than I ever have been about my investments. In fact if all of the developments they have been working on make progress and we validate how we are going to fund everything we have lined up without diluting the stock more then we should see over $10 before December. And that's without any new developments.
I'll take two to three cents higher every day until the report comes out. Then we are less likely to have a pull back and then when it goes up 50% it will be a higher jump ??
Back at you and happy New Year to all. Even to those who will miss out on the fuel cell opportunity. But to all along for the ride. 2018 is going to be a very good year.
Obviously nobody has the specific answer to what's going on with fuel-cell being listed as a subsidiary or somebody would have posted something explaining it. Just like everyone else I'm anxious to hear the details but my feeling is we're going to have to wait until the 11th. I wonder why Wikipedia does not have anything about ExxonMobil in fuel cells description when you look up fuel cell on Wikipedia. Could you be a typo. Either way we all know good things are coming in 2018. Part of me actually hopes it stays under $2 until I get my tax returns
From Forbes! Energy #PowerUp
U.S. Lawmakers And Corporate America Breathe New Life Into Carbon Capture
Ken Silverstein, CONTRIBUTOR
Oct 4, 2017 8:54 AM 2,106
The StatoilHydro Sleipner A gas platform, left, sits with [+]
Cellular telephones were once too big and too expensive, not to mention unreliable — similar arguments that are used today to diffuse the discussions tied to carbon capture and storage. That is what the Global CCS Institute is saying, noting that its goal is to reduce the cost, size and power losses tied to that technology.
Carbon capture is within sight, yet it remains elusive and expensive. And while the Obama administration had allocated billions to advance the concept, the Trump administration has submitted budgets to diminish the funding for those projects — ironic, given the president’s support for increasing the production of fossil fuels in this country.
Advocates of the technology say the world will continue to rely on coal, which makes carbon capture and storage an imperative to meet the goals of the Paris climate accord.
“These days it is popular to consider carbon capture as a clean coal technology,” says Jeffrey Bobeck, lead policy analyst for the Global CCS Institute, in an interview. “But eventually, if the Paris agreement targets are going to be met, you would need it on natural gas and on industrial users like the manufacturers of cement and steel, which aren’t yet regulated.”
Electricity generation remains the largest contributor of greenhouse gases at 29%; transportation is at 27% and industry at 21% while commercial and residential buildings and agriculture are at 12% and 9%, respectively, according to the Environmental Protection Agency.
But what about the most recent experiences for those that have tried this technology? That includes Southern Co.’s advanced 582-megawatt coal plant in Mississippi that was intended to capture and sequester CO2. Cost overruns and time delays drove up the original $2.9 billion price in 2006 to $7.5 billion. As a result, the Mississippi Public Service Commission ordered the plant’s operators to switch to natural gas or to have their shareholders absorb the added expenses.
At the same time, however, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Southern Company said that they had completed an initial demonstration phase of carbon capture at Southern’s coal-fired Plant Barry in Alabama. That demo was able to recover more than 90 percent of the carbon dioxide, send it through a 10-mile pipeline, and inject it underground.
Bobeck, from Global CCS, acknowledges the challenges but says that they can be overcome if federal policymakers become proactive. He also points to StatOil, which is the largest demonstration project in the world and is placing 1 million tons of carbon per year into a saline aquifer deep in the North Sea. It’s part of Norway’s strategy to regulate carbon — one that uses CO2 for enhanced oil recovery.
In this country, Exxon Mobil Corp. and FuelCell Energy have a small pilot project going in Alabama — one that tries to capture carbon from a duel coal and natural gas power plant there, using the CO2 to enhance oil recovery. Their technology also cuts nitrogen oxide, or smog-causing pollutants, by 70%. Their mutual goal, obviously, is to scale up this project and to eventually commercialize it.
Meantime, ConocoPhillips, General Electric and RoyalDutchShell Corp. are spending billions to develop both coal gasification as well as carbon capture and sequestration.
The technologies are improving, although commercialization is still a stretch. Many of the prevailing carbon capture and storage tools for power plants lose a third of the electricity, making them inefficient. But newer technologies, such as those for NRG Energy’s Petra Nova plant in Houston have reduced those losses to 20%. That plant will be capturing 1.6 millions tons a day of CO2 from an existing coal plant and using it for enhanced oil recovery.
“As the world’s largest post-combustion carbon capture system, the Petra Nova project confirms that carbon capture and storage technologies can play a critical role in ensuring the Nation’s energy security and providing good jobs for American workers, all while helping us reduce carbon emissions from coal-fired power plants,” Christopher Smith, assistant secretary for Fossil Energy at the Department of Energy said.
The U.S. government gave Petra Nova a $190 million grant while the Japanese government provided its partner JX Nippon a $250 million loan.
While Trump’s original budget request cut the funding for research on carbon capture and storage from about $600 millions a year to less than $200 million, Bobeck said he is confident that this funding will be revived. The effort to do is bipartisan, he says, emphasizing that what is now needed is the restoration of the so-called 45Q tax credit for carbon storage.
Right now, that credit is capped at 75 million tons — a drop in the bucket compared to what is produced each year. But lawmakers from both sides of the aisle want that limit removed so that the 2008 law can live on. Legislation in both chambers would also give a $50 a ton credit for CO2 that is stored and a $35 credit if the CO2 is used for enhanced oil recovery.
“This opportunity represents a genuine win-win for our nation’s economy and the environment, one that will bring high-paying jobs and investment to energy producing and industrial states and regions of our country,” says a letter signed by several entities ranging from Arch Coal to Occidental Petroleum to the Natural Resources Defense Council.
Why would an environmental organization back this plan? BP is projecting a 37% increase in energy consumption worldwide, leading to a 25% jump in CO2 emissions by 2035. That exceeds the levels necessary to keep temperatures from rising no more than 2 degrees Celsius by mid Century.
Carbon capture and sequestration is a tough sell in today’s environment — one that stresses using low-carbon fuels and one where building a new natural gas plant is much easier and cheaper. But energy consumption will escalate, especially coal use in developing countries. That is why a broad swath of U.S. lawmakers support public investment in the technology while some in the corporate world think there is a viable market for it.
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Did fuel cell change their fiscal schedule? Used to be the fourth quarter ended on October 31st and they reported their annual earnings and fourth quarter mid-December. Last year was the first time they reported in January but they didn't change their physical schedule. First quarter used to end on January 31st and they would report in March so I was assuming that stayed the same and we would get their annual report/ 4th quarter on January 11th. Then we would get there first quarter in March. And hopefully put together too good quarters within 2 months of each other resulting in well over the $4 price point the several analysts put on fuel cell within the last 6 months
As you can see our best Revenue quarter was 54 million. And we are currently expecting a consensus of $0.20 a share a loss. if we happen to be 54 million and turn a profit even though it's only 1/4 I would expect a huge reaction in a very short period of time. We can only hope.
06-08-17EPS of $-0.33 missed by $0.06Revenue of $20.42M (-28.6%) beat by $1.27M
Q1: 03-09-17EPS of $-0.39 missed by $0.07Revenue of $17.00M (-49.2%) missed by $2.25M
Q4: 01-12-17EPS of $-0.41 missed by $0.04Revenue of $24.50M (-52.4%) beat by $0.90M
Q2: 06-08-16EPS of $-0.56 missed by $0.16Revenue of $28.58M (-0.1%) missed by $6.44M
Q1: 03-09-16EPS of $-0.48 missed by $0.13Revenue of $33.48M (-19.7%) missed by $1.73M
Q4: 12-14-15EPS of $-0.38 missed by $0.10Revenue of $51.50M (-5.3%) beat by $6.87M
Q2: 06-08-15EPS of $-0.04 missed by $0.02Revenue of $28.60M (-25.3%) missed by $12.70M
Q1: 03-10-15EPS of $-0.02 in-lineRevenue of $41.67M (-6.2%) missed by $6.37M
Q4: 12-15-14EPS of $-0.02 in-lineRevenue of $54.40M (-1.4%) beat by $1.53M
Q3: 09-08-14EPS of $-0.03 in-lineRevenue of $43.17M (-19.6%) missed by $10.47M
Q2: 06-03-14EPS of $-0.04 missed by $0.01Revenue of $38.30M (-9.8%) missed by $6.43M
Q1: 03-09-14
Well I have a slightly different perspective but I do agree it always goes up between the announcement of when the earnings will be and when the earnings are released. I was thinking up 5 to 10% between now and the day before earnings are released. Then depending upon what news is leet or what rumors are spread will probably start seeing more action day before or the day of. We beat 50 million in Revenue I expect it to be over $3 in less than a week and possibly $4. But as you said we'll wait and see.
If it hits $1 I am taking a loan to invest. No way it's not $5 by December 2018 but should be more like somewhere between $10-$20 before then. Wait til we provide facts about how we are building the 39.8 me in Long island and received the $60million from S. Korea.
Too much to post but you must look on Twitter at Fuel Cell Energy a lot of good stuff
South Korea shipments and Beacon Falls. The announcement was in September that the shipments would begin immediately and conclude in the first quarter of 2018. The plant would be operational in the first quarter of 2018. That announcement was made prior to any real discussion of progress on the tax bill. And any real progress on the tax bill wasn't made till after October 31st I believe which was the end of the 4th quarter. You are both right we have gotten our hopes up in the past only to be let down and the lack of PR is the worst part of fuel cell energy in my opinion. However to me there's no legitimate reason for them to not start shipments unless there was an issue because of North Korea. They would be much better off being proactive and announcing something about that if that were the case. As far as Beacon Falls, yes it seem to be that that was pretty much going to be a done deal. However if you look back at the church the stock was almost at an all-time low after the reverse stock split when it was $10 a share. That was before we found out the Beacon Falls deal was not approved in the RFP. The stock should never have dropped down to $0.80. I could clearly understand it dropping down to $5. But after the reverse stock split it should have never went below $2 just as it should not be right now. As has been mentioned numerous times this stock is not treated fairly compared to its peers. Especially since plug power is the biggest underperformer Andover promisor I've ever seen. And yet it has steadily increased or the past couple weeks I'm baffled. The only way fuel cell energy is going to get pushed over the top is with a couple of good quarters in a row. If Plug Power ever had a knockout quarter and turned a profit the stock with quadruple at a minimum. We will be lucky if you'll sell doubles if they turn a profitable quarter. I don't really understand for sure why but that's reality. What I do know is that by the end of 2018 nobody will be able to deny fuel cell energy is a solid long-term Investment Company with Incredible growth potential. The multiples will be far better than what they are right now. And that's why I stand strong that at some point within the next 24 months fuel cell will hit $100 a share. Unfortunately we have to wait and see. I hope everyone has a great holiday.
Sorry, I tried copying the link, didn't work. If you copy and paste to browser you'll see it. And the 45 mw or 60 generation or combo there of is annual. So if we have 1/4 the generation and almoat all or all of the sales, that would mean we crush EBITDA break even for 4th quarter!!
Listen to the conference call. Michael bishop I believe is the one that clearly states they can't give an exact amount of megawatts that will ship but the total 20 MW project is worth over $60 million. They will ship 40-50 million in the 4th quarter from existing inventory with the balance shipped in Q1 2018. They also have not announced any update but plan to get a 20yr Serv contract from that and have the Microgrid on line by the 1st half of 2018.
So let's take the low end of that and lowest revenue ($10 million) in a quarter yet. That makes $50 million. But if they hit delivery on time and got paid, it should be higher. Think about it. They are accumilating service contracts with high margins every fuel cell they sell basically. So once we actually complete one more big deal (Like 39.8mw or 63mw) it's off to the races in a big way. Here is a most recent post.
DEEP tees up retooled renewable energy purchase plan
Hartford. I don't know if it's possible to be more anxious than I about the annual report.
Better not be. They were supposed to get that much (minimum) from South Korea for the 20 MW deal. They had to make $15 Mil (minimum) from other sources. I expect best quarter ever but I'm only wrong 75% of the time. I'm guessing $60-$65 million. A guy can hope!! Concerning there have been no updates on the shipments though, especially with the poop going on in N. KOREA.