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TheDane, I wouldn't say predicting $2-3 is bashing...
But given given the oil content projections of the JDZ and the percentages and carries ERHE has earned, saying it will trade at $2-3 in 3 YEARS most certainly is!
In 3 years this company will have proven oil in significant quantities in blocks 2, 3, & 4 with full carries to production.
Barring unforseen Dusters this stock will NOT be trading at $2-3 in three years. Merdian's projection is based sole on what we know today. With what we know today he is right, this stock should be $2-3. But three years from now?
Meridian does not factor in the future. His approach is similar to me approaching a bank looking for $500K for a new house. I tell the bank I don't have any assets and family income is < $100K, but my rich Aunt is terminally ill and I expect a huge inheritance soon.
Do I get the loan? (valuation) No. My current assets don't support that kind of loan (valuation).
Meridian's valuation is an ultra conservative banker view of the future. He's taking the "show me" approach. Until you show me, what is known values ERHE at $2-3.
Stock markets don't work that way. Stocks trade on potential a lot of the time. As this year goes on we will see a rig move into one of our blocks and our "potential" of finding known reserves goes up.
So will the stock.
As those reserves are found, our Assets go up, and then we start trading on "potential" again. As more rigs move (or move in) the potential of finding more reserves goes up .
And so will the stock.
Meridian is just trying to keep everyone ground in reality. In reality our balance sheet and PSC's indicate we should be $2-3.
Until that changes, that's all Meridian said. Until rigs move in and known assets change. That's all he said. I agree woleheartedly that in three years this will be a $20-30 stock or more, but you never know. World events could prevent rigs from ever producing oil in the JDZ and three years from now ERHE COULD be a $2-3 stock.
That's all Meridian said. He's completely wrong, of course! But that's all he said. "Show me."
"One may not want to produce the gas cap at any rate because it could be part of the 'propellant' which forces the oil to the surface."
If it's true that the shape of the formation is a hyperbolic paraboloid, and that CVX drilled into an upturned "wing" containing mostly gas, then what happens if they just uncork the thing and left the gas bleed off?
The physics of an oil field, in my mind (I am no expert), are as follows.
1.) NG is lightest, so it floats up through groundwater and oil until trapped by impermeable rock.
2.) Oil is next in density, so it floats up through groundwater until the NG is pressurized enough to equalize the ambient groundwater pressure.
You end up with an impermeable rock formation trapping a layer of NG, then oil, then underlying ground water.
So if CVX poked a hole near the top of an upturned "wing" of this hydrocarbon rich Pringles chip, wouldn't the ambient groundwater pressure force oil up into the wing if they just bled off the natural gas?
My gut says absolutely. Logically this would be illegal for two reasons, the incredible atmospheric polution, and the rules of oil production that require all fields to be develop to the fields fullest potential. By removing this pressure they may be able to force oil into their block, but they would take away a great deal pressure from the well, reducing recoverable oil substantially.
I think I just talked myself into the answer. LOL!
Good morning.
The market seems to be saying that block 2 straddle isn't so much in block 2 as many here are hoping. Looking at Afren's seismic diagram of block one clearly shows that.
If seismic is even close to accurate, and it is or we wouldn't be findin oil using it, then I don't expect much of an overlap into block 2.
For those familiar with that diagram, what is the significance of some fields being hashed red/white and others all red?
Because the material event that we WOULD get it was PR'd.
They only way it would be material is if reality invalidates the previous PR.
So it's in the account(s).
If the BOD were all experts in O&G...
The BOD and CEO would be having a pissin match over every little decision. My way; no, My way; NO, MY WAY!
Meridian, your suggestion is that we look at smaller O&G and see how they are set up. I don't have the time, but expect some would be like ERHE, and others would have O&G guys on their BOD's.
In this case Offer's bringing in outside that are outside O&G. Maybe he's setting up for a U.S. facing "BR-like" retail chain, and they all have retail experience? I haven't seen their resumes yet, so I don't know.
Until it's not irrelevant, it is irrelevant. BOD's can be changed, let's go find some oil.
Sorry about that... I was seeing if I could delete something I posted or only edit it. It's edit only.
Ding, ding, ding on Maestro, because I can.
Message board confusion, because it suits your purpose.
Show me the geology picture... I didn't think so.
50/50 you're wrong and trying to re-establish credibility.
You're a fund manager's toy guessing like we are.
Factually correct, to a fault...
Guys, this thing is BIGGER than rumors. Prepar for hardball.
Meridian is just a cottonball. It's gonna get ugly.
"I already told you... so what can i do?"
End your game comes to mind.
It won't happen, the stakes are too high.
Well I just took a big toke of flip-floppin Meridain...
That "sheet" will mess you up!
"Meridian is looking for your shares" Most likely,
but he won't get them. Anyone owning ERHE shares knows that if even 10% of the rumors are true this thing is a rocket!
If there's another Ghawar, raise that to $50
I understand where you're coming from... given 1-2 bbl per block maybe you're right, I think you're a little low, but hey, nothing wrong with conservatism.
You are NOT factoring in the "what if" mammoth find.
CNBC reporting on an exploration well???? C'mon, this thing is huge!
Now that Meridian is negative he's snow's buddy!
Absolutely comical.
If Meridian does work for a Fund...
Perhaps the changes to the BOD/Audit committee make ERHE compliant with his Funds requirements and he can buy it?
Hmmmmmm.
"value investor" I almost pee'd my pants!
I'm reading a mesaage board for an OTC:BB stock and see "value investor"???
We're all risk takers and this is just another lottery ticket, albiet with pretty good odds.
Value investor. ROTFLMAO! How do you determine value of a company with no revenue? <giggle>
I hope this is taken in the humorous way it is intended. It is kind of funny!
LOL! Thanks Tapco, glad ole Joe noticed me!
I expected nothing less after I reported him to the SEC and sent him an email telling him so.
How can a guy be that old and still so childish?
I guess it's a function of the number shares you've lost trying to trade with the big boys.
LOL!
Dang, out of posts! Meridian... admission?
"somebody provide me with a cash flow for each year for the next 20 years"
Okay, and what does outer space smell like? Talk about an unanswerable question!
texasspec, that's pure trader mentality and has no basis in reality.
If a $5 stock goes to $10, it has doubled it's market cap.
Whatever caused that would also cause a $50 stock (with 1/10th the shares out) to double as well.
I cannot believe the ammount of time this board has spent on this, it's below the basic of basics in investing.
A company's value is its market cap, not its share price. Whether ERHE has 710M worth a buck or 71M worth $10 is completely, totally and absolutely the same.
If an event takes place that would move the 710M one dollar shares to $2 then that same event will absolutely move the 71M shares from $10 to $20.
Absolutely.
This is my last post on this elementary subject.
"I just saw a lot of BS and wanted to correct that" What, with your own slew of BS?
Too funny!
We agree. I think news drives us to $5 and...
they do a 1 for 10 putting us at $50. That's when the fun begins. No more penny flippin grade school traders!
Carpe diem!
Personally I'd prefer a pre-market mega announcement so good that ERHE opens at some astronomical number to burn the cheap weasels that keep bidding 10ths of a cent that are likely "out" for the weekend.
As long as those children are playing NOBODY will take this stock serious.
Whew! That felt good.
rocket...
A R/S isn't an issue to me. If they want to do a 1 for 10 I can get behind it IF they have enough ammo in their warchest to run the stock and do a few 2 for ones afterwards.
2 for 1's get everybody lookin, especially when they split and keep runnin!
I don't know if that's the plan, but that plan I could support.
Now that I said all that... AIM could care less about us having 700M shares anyway, as long as we've got the assets to back it up.
AIM just doesn't want to become another OTC where a company with $16,000 in total revenue has a billion shares out.
ERHE, in very short order, will be out of the woods as far as that's concerned.
rocket...
E*Trade. I can honestly tell you that there is NO DIFFERENCE in my ability to trade since the move.
With that said I think it is ERHE's responsibility to make the ADR thing happen. If ERHE WANTED to they could move the listing to AIM and delist on the OTC.
But c'mon, sure nobody thinks THAT will happen. That would be stupid and these guys aren't stupid.
Even if they did do that I can still make AIM trades via E*Trade, I just have to do it over the phone and it costs more.
So what? I AM a "long".
AIM...
I own another stock that traded on the OTC. They made the move to AIM last year. The shares held in the states were automatically converted to ADR's and still trade as such on the OTC. I still see sill MM games, but for the most part the ADR price tracks pretty well with the AIM shares.
If ERHE lists on the AIM it will totally transparent, nothing will change except we'll have a larger shareholder base. Y'all will still be able to dayttade if you want to!
Oh yeah, since listing on the AIM this these guys bought in:
MAN Financial Limited..........2,266,600 (4.23%)
Mr. John Edward Story..........1.473.336...2,72 %
Fidelity Int. Small Cap Fund...1.332.300...2,46 %
Credit Agricole Cheuvreux Int..4,343,436...8.1%%
Bear Stearns Int. Trading Ltd..1.317.156...2,43 %
Charles Church Trust...........1.773.094...3,27 %
Opunosa Investment Inc.........8.310.249..15,35 %
Once you're off the OTC, institutions come-a-knockin!
oilman, I'll gladly move to AIM regardless of the share price. If it's trading at $4 and they want to take it to AIM, fine.
Anything to get off the OTC.
"buying into the company at around $2" Hopefully shareholders would laugh them out of the room!
oilphant is going to be the death of me!
So we've got 800 feet of net pay, which is 3 times Ghawar by the way.
We've got a dizzying 50 mile diameter field.
"The more there is of mine, the less there is of yours". So the majority of the field lies in blocks 2, 3, 4, & 5.
We've got news on Monday (lunae dies) (which in MY opinion is too soon to be anything that will retire any of us)
And we've got Meridian with over 120 posts in the last 24 hours, all basically negative. LOL!
1 + 1 = $$$ Whatever is going on, it's big, real big.
Prolly a duster. LOL!
If I had my druthers, I druther they didn't make a deal until they know the extent of what's down there.
Proven extimates are ALWAYS conservative and very rarely, if ever, go down.
Let's poke some more holes before we sell our company or company's rights to ANYTHING!
Oilman, Meridians post where he said...
"ERHE will trade at whatever the market will bear $5, $10, $20? We'll have to wait and see."
That one has been deleted as well. I spent a freakin hour looking for it!
But now it's $2-3 in 3 years. LOL!
Man-o-man is somethin a brewin!
Meridian, you've been very busy! It's hard to keep up!
And all negative?
Transparent as glass.
A sopena should be served to I-Hub for Meridian's identity.
If, of course, he tanks the stock Monday... which seems to be his goal.
$2-3 dollars years down the road is a complete flip from what he was saying last month.
Is he Joe Shea? LOL!
I am completely convinced that you aren't playing...
A month ago you were damn near pumping the value of ERHE, now your saying it ain't worth squat.
It makes you look like Joe. Who you are is irrellavent as long as you're recognized for what you have become.
But that's all JMO.
I think Meridian is playing with us...
and I think he's been drinking. Mis-spellings and such seem to be higher than normal.
I wonder why he is celebrating? Hmmmm.
Something's up, we just aren't privy to that, I mean, all we are is shareholders. What commitment would they have to us?
I've been down this road with other stocks, totaly inept management when it come to informing the shareholders.
It's a OTC:BB stock because it acts like one.
Very frustrating.
Watch the blog...
Meridian is smellin of JS tactics.
Yes there has been some pie in the sky Ghawar numbers fun being played out...
but the bottom line is *if* there's another Ghawar down there even those that tossed 5 grand in ERHE's direction will have their lives affected significantly.
Since the rumors started about the size of CVX find, what has happened?
ERHC has altered their BOD structure to comply with more senior exchange requirements.
What does that tell you?
While I'm sad to see Meridian walk down this path, he's going to walk down it whether I'm sad or not. If the field is as big as we've "heard" I expect Umbra to cross over next.
It's all about coin, don't think they're here to help you make more.
What are you, Meridian the basher tonight???
Hmm, maybe you have info that has encouraged you to become a shareholder soon?
The change in your attitude is nothing less than astounding.
Top Drive,
The value of proven reserves is $7-10B per billion barrels. If this truely is another Ghawar sized field, then ERHE will be in control of 5-8 bbl.
$70 a share may sound looney tune nutty, but is is entirely possible *IF* a huge find is down there.
The likely hood of *that* is very, very small.
But if it is...
1.) Joe will jump for sure!
2.) and I will walk around babbling incoherently.
Speculation is fun, ESPECIALLY on the high side!
"at some point it seems like it would be cheaper to buy us out at any cost if it is a contigious field imo. they could then get all our percentages."
Maybe that's Umbra's "very, very"?
But by Eater? No way.