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"2014 isn't that far off considering..."
Merck(MRK_) and Ariad Pharmaceuticals(ARIA_)
Drug/indication: ridaforolimus for sarcoma.
Approval decision date: June 5, 2012
My question revolves around that, according to the article, a diagnostic test MUST be developed for Pona Approval.. What is that risk that the test can be developed in time for the NDA filing? They obviously can determine if the mutant exists, but you need a convenient, robust test for the many patients that will be screened.
Is there a risk here with our investment in Ariad, on the certainty of MolecularMD creating a viable diagnostic test? One of those known unknowns..
A main issue for the approval in T315I patients will be having a commercially available diagnostic kit that can identify the mutation, as the FDA will probably view it as a condition for approval. Ariad is working with MolecularMD on developing diagnostic test specifically for this purpose.
Thank you Peter for sharing you incredible knowledge.
I had to look it up, and I'm sure others want to know what it means:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/cvrs-could-become-a-new-trend-in-biotech-ma-2011-01-10
After what Berger just did? The takeover crowd have packed their bags and left the building.. Unless, Harvey stumbles..
Looks like we will surpass 10 million shares. Will that be the the record for one day?
As I said, priced within hours, and BIG! Who ever said 10 million shares doesn't know the Harvey way..
I do think they will be aggressive with this dilution. No mamby pamby 10 million shares.. And, they have to do it in hours, not days.. Otherwise, Mr. Market will lean hard....
I remember at the end of the Ariad Investor's Conference earlier this year, when we all saw a picture of Harvey Berger, at 41 years old, when he first started the Company. At that conference, he stated, something to the effect,
"For Ariad shareholders, the best is yet to come by the end of the year."
I sure wish I knew that this is what he meant!!.. Shaft! Right on..
At the end of the day, however, I expect Harvey will have the last laugh, and he (and we) will be successful..
Interesting to see if the institutions hold, or say screw the pooch and dump because they can't believe what they hear..
For all they want to do, 15 + million, I would expect.. that's what..
For all they want to fund, it will be a big dilution. Saw $11 for common somewhere.
Wasn't good enough... Down another .23 AH........
The selling was devastating today. Like someone screamed fire!
Why in the world was our good friend Merck up so strong today?
No love today in Ariad land today.. Should have bounced smartly..
Two Novartis Phase III studies show twice as many Ph+ CML patients achieve deeper levels of response with Tasigna compared to Gleevec
Wow, interesting.. Pona then moves to second line directly..... Somebody send this to Harvey... (I think he already has this....)
Nope. He was quoted saying European partner... That is why I brought it up. It maybe positioning on Berger's part..
"Berger said the company will decide in the first quarter of next year whether to secure a European partner for the drug,"
So what is it, POP or DROP in AM
Importantly, no patient has left the trial due to pancreatitis..
My WAG is based on a $11.70 close today, we pop 30% on Monday, which puts us slightly above $15, so all our predictions come true..
$19- Barclays now covering Ariad at overweight, price target $19
Not the report, but we are getting closer..
http://localizedusa.com/2011/12/09/barclays-capital-bcs-analysts-now-covering-ariad-pharmaceutical-aria-stock/
That's what I thought. If a is firm already covering, and then they initiate coverage, it sure makes it confusing to their clients...
News for 'ARIA' - (*DJ ARIAD Pharmaceuticals Started At Overweight By Barclays Capital >ARIA)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 09, 2011 08:18 ET (13:18 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2011 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 08 18 AM EST 12-09-11
You guys blame UK health care costs, and other biotech events for the slump in Ariad over the last few days? Clueless is all I can say..
Am I the only one who is nervous that the selling the last few days may indicate crappy ASH results?
What I'm MOST thankful for is that Ponatinib was not the FIRST drug in Ariad's pipeline and they partnered it with Merck, and Ariad went it along with Rida as their second drug.
Merck has Rida in combination with another drug in the pipeline for breast cancer.. Just SLOW progress..
They keep this stuff up, and they will drive Baker Brothers away.. weenies..
I sure would like it to bounce at the 30 day...
Selling a short term PUT in front of what is going on in Europe in the next few weeks/days? No thanks!
As the Harv said in a recent call, starting the IND in Japan is filing some paperwork.. little expense to start that..
I say a convertible bond offering, which are in vouge, which they can pay the interest from the cash flow they will generate in 2013, and, which will dilute at a future date when they are rich and successful. Do it Harvey..
Mr. Market is sure playing with your head with this stock.. Why do shareholders look at the day to day movement with this stock? Silly really..
Clearly, Harvey stated yesterday that filing the IND and starting a 100 pts trial in Japan was to raise the value of any partnership deal..
Yeah, after listening to the event yesterday, a secondary offering in the next 8 to 18 months is baked in the cake.. Harvey is going to take the whole enchilada to the finish line. I do not think it will effect the SP that much with good news flow..
I think the Jefferies report modeled the revenue projections realistically..
Since when is someone stating an opinion (aka, speculation) a violation of the TOS?
suggest efficacy.. I want something stronger than that, partner..