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So you bought the stock at higher levels and now your pissed off at the company for your mistake. I've never invested in a biotech in which management was not overly optimistic regarding timelines. We've all been pissed off about the imminent comment, but JAV's management would get high marks from most investors on this board.
Just getting Dyloject approval in the UK without any real delays rates an "A" in my book. If they can get approval for nasal ketamine for some of the indications without a Phase III trial then that would rate an "A+".
The shareprice will take care of itself in due time. I'm hoping someone has been screwing around with the share price in order to accumulate shares. I really don't see how management could prevent the manipulation.
Why would you even suggest the share price could fall to $3.80 if you were long? Do you want to buy more shares? Your post could scare weaker holders into exiting their position. Lets review your post:
"Well, the gap is filled. JAV has never had a gap that eventually wasn't filled since I started watching it 10 months ago. If 4.80 doesn't hold, the next stop is $4.40, then on to $3.80, if $4.40 doesn't hold. The shorts are burying it. Every bid they sell right into. Since the short sale rule changed in July, they completely control the stock they want."
Why would you state that shorts are burying the stock? How do you know any shares were shorted today? Your comments about filling the gap, you could say that about any stock.
Why don't you tell the board why you own such a large position instead of why the stock is going down. Don't you think investors will see this as a buying opportunity?
We have two new posters on the board who are negative the stock price. They happen to know each other and can vouch for each others credibility, how convenient. Do you know the moon is made of cheese.
Why don't you look at the positives instead of the negatives. Could you be one of those shorts? "Ketamine results are baked in" Your crazy, how can it be baked in when their talking about an accelerated review process.
"Cash burn rate increasing", thats not always a bad thing with biotechs, it means your clinical trials are advancing. They still have $47 million on the balance sheet so cash is not a concern next yr.
How about the positives, like they anticipate sales ramping up quickly for Dyloject in the UK & German markets. Clinical trials are progressing well.
AUXL - downgraded to sell at Roth Capital and a price target of $16. Closed @ $26.41. Wonder if Roth anticipates competition from Androxal as a reason for downgrade.
"Auxilium 3Q Loss Narrows on Testim Sales
Wednesday October 31, 8:41 am ET
Auxilium Pharmaceuticals' 3rd-Quarter Loss Narrows on Higher Sales of Testim
MALVERN, Pa. (AP) -- Biotech drug developer Auxilium Pharmaceuticals Inc. said Wednesday its third-quarter loss narrowed because of higher sales of its testosterone gel Testim."
The specialist is holding us back or one of our funds needed to liquidate some shares. Pretty disappointing day.
Nerf, all I know is that one day I'm going to regret not owning more shares then I'm holding today. I don't know the reason for your negativity, but when you find another biotech with such clear cut paths for FDA approval then let me know. It sure as hell isn't RPRX.
NERF, I don't think we're going to see a pop and then a drift lower as investors take profits. This is huge news. We've gone from a biotech to a pharmaceutical company with rapidly growing sales in the next few yrs. JAV has the pre-NDA meeting for nasal ketamine in a few weeks which is a going to garner alot of attention. Anything less then $6 looks like a bargain now that UK approval is a done deal.
Miracles can happen. New highs are imminent.
I'm not going to comment since I may say something I'll regret.
Good luck,
NERF, sometimes its better to leave some things unsaid. Your just punching someone when their down. Thanks,
Management in this company has gone from best-in-class to junk. You can't ignore investors and not comment on the pipeline after giving out guidance of an imminent approval. I hope someone asks them how they could have been so wrong during the CC.
Is Bill Gross trying to save his ass or solve the mortgage problems?
"The logical conclusion is that Bill Gross is overweight mortgages and wants a taxpayer bailout of PIMCO. Is it any wonder then that he is asking Bush to "Write some checks, bail ‘em out, and prevent a destructive housing deflation that Ben Bernanke is unable to do."
http://seekingalpha.com/article/45689-bill-gross-wants-a-pimco-bailout
I can't see nasal ketamine ever gaining approval as a treatment for chronic pain so the abuse potential would be limited. The military, trauma, and break through pain indications make sense but I don't want anyone driving thats snorting ketamine.
PANC - did you see this?
http://library.corporate-ir.net/library/75/754/75423/items/266575/Data%20tables.pdf
Biotech investing just got a little more dangerous. Freuerstein has decided to make some changes to his "Biotech mailbag" and now call it the "Biotech notebook". "My goal here is to create a home for short, investable updates on biotech stocks -- stuff that I hear from my sources, riffs on company announcements, or even just random observations and rants.
I'd like the column to have a "bloggy" feel, so I'm going to be liberal with links. I may point out an interesting science or health story, highlight research studies, or comment on something interesting (or infuriating) posted on someone else's biotech blog".
Why do I get the feeling he's going to blast more of my stocks?
http://www.thestreet.com/s/biotech-notebook-dendreon-orexigen-arena-hythiam/newsanalysis/biotech/10386676.html?puc=_tscana
Who cares about todays uptick? This is a lot sweeter.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ISIS
Yea, every time I mention nasal Ketamine to my friends they laugh about the abuse potential. It will be worth more then gold. Javelin may make a fortune since the military won't be able to keep it in stock.
Nerf, if I got tired of hearing those statements then I'd never invest in biotechs. We know we're going to get an update on Dyloject in the next few weeks even its not until the 3rd qtr CC, and the special K pre-NDA meeting should generate some excitement.
Someones accumulating shares & JAV goes up as fast as it goes down. Do you like this better, "The stars are lining up"?
I usually hate it when it appears that someone is trading on inside information, but I'm not going to complain this time. Javelin is looking strong & I wouldn't be surprised to see new highs by the end of next month.
I agree with your assessment that the T-only endpoint was not a possibility due to the unique MOA. Its also the reason I told BSR to stick it and I wasn't continuing my subscription.
BSR thinks that RPRX could have gone after T only and it was RPRX's management who elected AIHH. BSR has been less then enthusiastic since RPRX is not following their preferred clinical path.
Trading activity is looking a little stronger. We're seeing a few buyers take out the day traders shares.
You may have to retract your statement.
"There is zero chance that they would be required to do an additional study *before* the phase IIIs to examine the effects of Androxal on metabolic end points." BSR has talked to management and released an update.
Thomas, I'll never forget the female ex-FDA reviewer who spoke at the analyst/investor day. She was pretty adamant that the FDA endocrine division would require a QOL endpoint. If she was representative of all the FDA personnel then nothing would surprise me.
Do you really think a short position of 300K is significant? Most of the position is probably just a hedge so I don't view it as worth much of a discussion. Of course, if your trying to drum-up controversy as usual then I'm sure you could provide some insight.
Feuerstein's Biotech-Stock Mailbag, RPRX mentioned again:
My column on "manopause" stocks prompted a couple of questions. Jon. R. asks, "Why has the FDA not also raised the bar on Nebido as they have done with Repros?"
As I wrote this week, Repros Therapeutics is in a bit of a bind with its testosterone-boosting drug Androxal because it hasn't yet reached agreement with the FDA on an approval-worthy clinical endpoint for a phase III study.
Androxal works by stimulating a man's body to produce more of his own testosterone. That puts the drug in a different category than currently marketed testosterone replacement products, including Indevus Pharmaceuticals and its long-acting, injectable testosterone replacement Nebido.
On the same topic, Dick F. asks, "Do any of these testosterone companies mention anything about artificial testosterone possibly causing cancer?"
Great question. Yes, the subject did come up at the UBS conference I attended last week because it is, or has been, a concern. There were two doctors -- a urologist and an endocrinologist - speaking at the conference, and both downplayed the testosterone replacement-cancer link.
At this point, there is no clinical data to suggest that men who use a testosterone replacement are at any greater risk for developing cancer, specifically, prostate cancer, the docs said. It is well understood that testosterone "feeds" prostate cancer, which is why prostate cancer patients are put on hormonal therapy to deplete testosterone. But there is no evidence that circulating testosterone causes prostate cancer to develop.
http://www.thestreet.com/s/feuersteins-biotech-stock-mailbag/newsanalysis/biotech/10384286.html?puc=....
<<<<True but sometimes you say things to generate a conversation so you can learn what others are thinking even when you are not saying anything new or earthshattering...>>>
Did you ever think to ask a straightforward question instead of using some underhanded tactic to get your answer?
Looks like some have exited their positions and are trying to scare investors into selling ahead of the meeting or hoping for a dip on the announcement. Any regulatory pathway announcement for Androxal should be viewed as a positive since its one more step closer to gaining FDA approval.
<<<We are within a week of riches or ruin...>>>
Please explain what you anticipate coming out of the FDA meeting which could possibly have a big impact on the stock price positively or negatively. I'm tired of seeing all the posts claiming to be long, but predicting possible doom.
I personally don't see a big swing in either direction no matter what clinical pathway is finalized.
Zip, I originally mentioned the split since the lack of liquidity seems to scare off the retail investor. I hate watching the stock move 7% on 20K shares. If you've got a sizable position then it wears you out no matter how positive you are on the pipeline.
If you compare the value of early stage biotechs then the market caps are based more on the number of shares then the pipelines potential in my opinion.
This stock has brought nothing but misery to me. I may have to buy some more shares since its got to get better.
So you identified yourself as the JP Morgan analyst & RP actually talked to you? Now I'm suspect.
I don't have any problem with next several weeks, but I can't understand what lead them to believe the approval was imminent. We may get the nasal Ketamine update before the Dyloject. Thanks for the update.
I just don't understand why you sell in the morning and buy those same shares back in the afternoon. That strategy wouldn't reduce your risk and I could find much better stocks to day-trade if thats what their doing. I didn't get a call back last time I called IR, but I may have to give it another try.
Does this stock ever trade up in the morning hours. Every freaking day down .15 or so.
<<At this point, one must consider, what the heck happens if we get BAD NEWS>>>
I have a feeling it will go up no matter what regulatory pathway is finalized. I think most long term holders are sitting back & waiting to add if it drops further. We're seeing some selling from the weaker holders and probably a little shorting, but its small stuff. We only traded about 12K shares before 1:00 yesterday.
Its great that management was able to place the secondary at higher prices, but I hope JP will quit talking to the little guys. We need an institutional investor with deep pockets to get behind the stock and support the price on any weakness.
Ok, I've decided to take another tactic with this stock since the recent trading activity just increases my BP. I'm hoping that the manipulators, weak holders, and shorts sell every share on the FDA news and drop it to $6 so that I can buy with both fists. I'm going to keep telling myself that the weakness is good. See, I already feel better.
PANC - the new Phase I was for a long-term formulation. The current oral formulation can only be dosed for 1 month. Its my understanding they can take these new formulations directly into Phase III since it doesn't change the bioequivalency.