Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Agreed. If I were to help FNMA recapitalize, I wouldn't pay anywhere close to the current price. I would demand at least a 20% discount, maybe even 50%.
Those thinking that the New Money is going to pay more for something haven't reviewed any previous Recapitalizations / Restructurings.
A Rude Awakening is on the horizon for many Average Joes.
FNMA went down $0.18 in the last month, yet FNMAS went up $0.40.
Facts matter indeed!
Back-testing Resistance Levels. It seems this $2-$2.05 range will be difficult for FNMA to break back above without significant news.
#NoBuenoAmigos
Excellent FNMA Facts! Can we sticky this?
Interesting theory. Much more plausible than $20 FNMA.
Commons' clock is quite literally ticking. If you listen closely, you can hear it.
#TickTock
Agreed. Time to get back to the FNMA Facts.
Disagreed.
Do you think that's why Ackman reduced his position significantly?
Considering all of the FNMA volume lately with very little price action tells me someone with a large position is slowly selling and holding the price back.
CET1 isn't specific to Fannie & Freddie, it applies to all financial institutions.
The GSEs can't offer new Preferreds unless they want to pay Dividends to existing Jr. Preferreds. Unless of course they can sell new Preferreds with no Dividend for 2-3 years (who would buy that?).
But even then, those Preferreds would not count towards CET1 as per the definition of CET1.
Do you think Commons can get above $2 now that Ackman has sold over 25% of his position in FNMA and 100% of his FMCC?
Time to Sell the Pop. FNMA Always Drops!
Can we sticky this? FNMA Facts matter
Not wiped out, just written down. SPS will be kept for the Commitment Fee going forward.
And with SPS write-down, you then have the Warrants in play with absolute certainty.
Do you think Ackman is causing this sell-off in Commons? It's amazing he was pumping Commons and saying Jr. Preferreds were selling to buy Commons, and it turns out he was actually selling Commons (possibly to buy JPS).
The Lemmings are usually slow to react, so maybe the real selling doesn't start until tomorrow?
Ouch, that's devastating. Did he increase JPS position also?
Looks like he did the reverse of what he was shouting at the end of last year.
This post is filled with informative FNMA Facts. Excellent!
What happens if FNMA breaks below $1.90?
Do you think that Gap at $1.70 is still hold Commons back?
That's False. There haven't been $130B in overpayments when you factor in the 10% Loan.
The SPS Cramdown Plan is Administrative and Legal. It may also be the Admin's only option in a Lame Duck session.
One way or another, It's Coming Amigos!!
Does that include Treble Damages?
When are those supposed to be paid out? $150 per FNMA share?
Nah, they just don't want any additional progress in Courts so they can continue to delay.
Let's see if Judge Sweeney helps the Gov/FHFA again.
Do you think Commons will be higher than $3 by the time Jr. Preferreds are Converted? The price will need to be adjusted for Reverse Splits.
Are you not expecting FNMA to Reverse Split?
Thanks for the clicks. More money for me to buy Jr. Preferreds with
$3-3.50 FNMA now? Glad I Sold the Pop. Yikes!
But if that's what Bove says, then we must all accept it as gospel.
Do you think this article will cause a mass Conversion from Commons to Jr. Preferreds next week?
Existing Commons end up with less than 5% of the outstanding shares once the Recapitalization is concluded.
No votes for BOD, or anything else, will be taken until after the Conservatorship.
By the time Commons get a vote, their sub-5% vote will be a drop in the bucket of the Wall Street banks that will own the remaining 95+% of Commons.
Good Luck with your Votes though.
2 years of capital raises? That's Maximum Dilution for FNMA Commons!
The Market seems to have finally figured out the waterfall of Dilution Commons are soon to face.
I'm starting to wonder if FNMA will see $1 again before it sees $3.
This must have been Squid's plan all along. No bueno amigos
That's a good way to maximize Treasury's returns.
The SPS Cramdown Plan might end up being the Mnuchin Dilution Solution if Biden wins.
I wouldn't be able to sleep at night if I only owned Commons and wasn't hedged like Ackman.
I don't think Jr. Preferreds (The Fulcrum) have nearly as much to be concerned about as compared to FNMA Commons.
Fasten your seat belts! It's about to be a bumpy ride.
Nice little Pop. Probably time to Sell FNMA before it Drops again!
There will be "Significant Dilution" for FNMA Commons
That doesn't make any sense. Can you explain why Jr. Preferreds would drop after release occurs?
It's not like Jr. Preferreds can be diluted, unlike FNMA Commons.
I'd be very concerned about the words "Significantly Diluted" as spoken by FHFA's Director when referring to Commons re: the Recapitalization of the GSEs.