"and i am very surprised how management did found them ...or did they found us ?"

Perhaps the initiation of a relationship began during ERHC's presentation at the Burj Al Arab in the UAE for the 2008 Global Investment Symposium?

http://erhc.com/articles/erhc-energy-presentation-at-the-2008-global-investment-symposium-at-the-burj-al-arab-hotel-in-dubai/

...and the goal is to insure it is at the lowest price... got it.

I've got 3 letters for you...

YET.

Negotiations are ongoing, and I believe are very near completion.

Everything points to that, including your... for lack of a better word... panic, that it's about to happen.

Really?


midtieroil Sunday, 10/20/13 09:43:01 AM
Re: jimbo1959 post# 280251
Post # of 280292

Feel free to keep speculating on what ERHC might get in a farmout but I am far more concerned about the facts. And the fact is ERHC doesn't have a JV partner for Kenya and there is NO indication if or when they will get one. The LOI is almost 6 months old. The cash is dwindling. Ntephe isn't talking. The share price had its lowest close in 12 years and is down 33% from the rights offering price. The FTG has been cancelled indefinitely And without any news, I don't see how this stock holds 5 cents.

But please keep your positive thoughts. Someone has to. And maybe the old saying that it's always darkest just before the done will come true. I'm ready for dawn. How about you?



midtieroil Sunday, 10/13/13 12:02:45 PM
Re: tamtam9042 post# 279836
Post # of 280292

They haven't told us why the FTG was cancelled and we all know they never will. This is the way this company has always operated. They obfuscate their failures by not saying anything and pretending everything is great. It's a joke.

"postponed indefinitely" implies the company has cancelled it. No such announcement has ever been made. In fact, the company's most recent updated stated in it's opening sentence: "Preparations continue for Bell Geospace to acquire an airborne Full Tensor Gravity Gradiometry (FTG) survey of ERHC Energy’s Block 11A in northwestern Kenya."

http://erhc.com/news/erhc-energy-update-on-status-of-airborne/

I don't see "postponed indefinitely" in that PR, or anywhere else other than in middy fiction.

A lot of companies (majors included) have drilled in Kenya, unsuccessfully, for decades...

Tell that to Tullow, they'll laugh at you.

Thank you for the factual post after all this time. I accept your facts...

They don't have a partner in Kenya, that's true, but you omit that they entered in to Letter of Intent with a farm-in partner and are negotiating a deal. That's not a partial fact like you like to post, that's the whole fact. A negotiation is underway.

They have fould no oil, that's true, but if they don't explore they never will, so moving forward is everybody's goal from Offor down to badog with his 400 shares.

The stock is at a 12 year low, that's true, and nobody knows if it will go up, but then that's true of any stock on any market anywhere in the world.

ERHC's cash balance is getting low, that's true, but anyone that doesn't believe they will raise that cash and Offor will allow his 304 million shares become worthless would be insane for holding.

"That means it has been postponed and we don't know for how long, so it is indefinite."

That's your opinion. The dang plane could take off tomorrow. Your use of the word "indefinite" and the structure of you sentence coupled with your years long obsession with harming the company cause readers to feel your use of the word indefinite means "forever".

That's the wrong conclusion. "Indefinitely" is your *opinion*, and is not a statement ever made by the company.

I can see only 2 reasons for the delay; the recent massive subsurface water discovery in the area has put environmental impact on the front burner, or the ongoing negotiations with the farm-in partner are very, very close to complete.

Since an aerial gravity study would have absolutely zero impact on the underground water supply, I conclude that's not the holdup. IMO, a partner announcement is imminent. I could be wrong, but that's the only logical conclusion I can come up with. It's not a financial limitation... at a nickel Offor could write a check for the cost of the study and increase his control... why wouldn't he? He has the most to lose here.

What I would like to see, as I have said many times, is a partner taking a significant equity stake in ERHC, in an agreement that provides ERHC with *some* cash, and full carry of exploration costs in multiple properties.

That's a complex deal that could explain the length of time this is taking.

Both seismic (limited) and gravity data (from 1854 stations) are available. Thuo has it. ERHC has it.

They have at least *some* idea of the blocks potential from that data, and from the studies of the Lapur Formation to the east. That outcrop is "what lies beneath" thrust up above ground where we can see it. Lot's of reservoir quality sandstone in the outcrop.

That's what lies beneath... reservoir quality sandstone. Is it charged? I don't know. But I know this, factually:

- It has been proven that enough total organic carbon exists in the source rock beneath Northern Kenya.

- It has been proven that significant faulting creating traps has occurred under the Lotkipi plain.

- It has been proven that thick layers of porous sandstone exist in the basin.

Source rock + sandstone + traps = high prospectively.

Download that paper I posted about... it combines the limited seismic data with a gravity study done in Northwestern Kenya and shows there are dozens of faults underneath the Lotikipi plain, each possibly creating a trap for oil, and the Loperot-1 well drilled in the 1980's verified TOC (total organic carbon) well in excess of the hydrocarbon creation threshold.

There is a lot of data on block 11A. It's just not freely available.

Perhaps the length of time is indicative of hammering out a partnership involving more than one of ERHC's properties?

I don't know and readily admit that. You don't know, yet shout otherwise from the mountaintops.

Go figure.

This Amoco paper on the data gathered on the geology of the Lotikipi plain (block 11A) is 10 pages long and a great read. It was produce in 1999 from data gathered from 1985 to 1999.

It's only $10, and worth the purchase...

http://archives.datapages.com/data/specpubs/study44/st44ch03/ch3.htm

I won't infringe on the copyright by posting anything from it. I am using information from it and correlating it with other publicly available data. For instance, the author suggests strong evidence exists linking the Paleocene rift of South Sudan with the Anza rift of Eastern Kenya. Using that, I searched on Sudan Paleocene rift and came up with an old map having black blob's of potential rift basins in Sudan... and those black blobs align almost perfectly with current day Sudanese oil discoveries.

Every single oil block on the planet, every one... including Saudi Arabia's massive Ghawar field, was untested at one point in time. A lot of *extremely* large oil fields have been discovered by testing and drilling "untested" blocks.

It's time to test and drill Kenya block 11A and see what she holds!

"Also we need to consider that some new blocks are now available in Kenya. Those are also competition for ERHC."

Why would you think other Kenyan blocks are competition if you believe, as you have stated numerous times, that "closeology" is meaningless?

Admit it, Kenya is hot... and we have the biggest black blob, LOL!

Yeah, it makes no sense that a major would work to destroy an African owned minnow over control of an African oil property. Their time in Africa would be very short lived if they did. Every country on the continent that has auctioned oil blocks has "local content" as one of their primary concerns.

Starving the minnow out isn't a viable scenario.

Roughly 10M shares with a total value of roughly $70,000 have traded CUMMULATIVELY over the last 3 months.

"large amounts of stock are being dumped at a very low price"

Hardly.

My goal was to determine whether we will be looking at days, weeks, or months.

It looks like weeks... from initiation to data in hand.

Spin the propellers already!

as was duly noted in my post.

Eyeballing a map ERHC's 11A is about 250km long and 80km wide. At 800 linear km per 5 hours flight, that's 3 flight lines every 5 hours. To cover the 80km east to west they need to fly 40 flight lines, 40 / 3 = 26 5 hour periods, or 130 hours.

But, that's if the block were a 250km by 80km rectangle, which its not. I'm eyeballing that the actual block is 2/3rds of the volume of the full rectangle, so .66 * 130 = 86 hours of flight.

Even at 4 hours of flight per day they can cover the block in 22 days or less. If the line spacing is 4km, halve that number to 11 days, if 6km... 8 days.

At least now I feel like I have a vague idea of what to expect once they're flying.

Finally, some numbers to crunch...

From BellGeo's website... "able to acquire 5 hours of data, 800 linear kilometers"

And from another website..

"One of the test surveys was conducted in December of 2006
in Australia, where the performance of Air-FTG® and the
conventional airborne gravity (GT1A) were evaluated. GT1A is
currently considered well suited for capturing low frequency
signal. The matching Air-FTG® survey was flown at a high altitude
drape coincident over a portion of a 2003 GT1A survey (Figure
1) at an altitude of 655 m above mean sea level.
Survey lines were flown in the east-west direction at spacing of 2 km, whereas the tie lines were flown in the north – south
direction at a 20 km spacing. The results from both surveys are compared and evaluated in this study."[/I]

Using the size of ERHC's 11A (which I don't have yet), I should be able to calculate how long the FTG will take once it is started.

Note: the 2km spacing was the lowest I could find. 4km and 6km are also used. I'll go with the minimum spacing to get the longest possible flight time.

This was probably posted when it came out July 31st. I apologize in advance if it's repeat. There's a lot of Kenya info in it.

http://www.tullowoil.com/files/pdf/results/2013_half_yearly_results_presentation.pdf

A lot of black and gray in 11A...

http://www.epgeology.com/articles/kenya-rift-basin.html

Here is such a map with interpretation of Gabonese waters...

http://www.igcworld.com/PDF/Oct08_Gabon.pdf

My guess is the potential partner wants a deal BEFORE the FTG is done... they want to use the "untested block" card to gain the largest percentage possible. Kenya is white hot right now, they know they have a good chance of a commercial discovery in a block that large. If the FTG is done and it shows some promising features warranting seismic and drilling, their entry price goes up far more than the cost of paying for the FTG themselves after they've secured their position.

My gut says they are intensely negotiating the cash, carry and farm-in percentage. It will be interesting to see how this plays out and if we every learn what the hold up was.

You will get your exit point... in spite of yourself.

Did you forget?

CAMAC had 11A and was pleased to have it. They let it go for undisclosed reasons... so for you to say everyone had a shot at 11A and passed is untrue. CAMAC wanted it, bid on it, won it, and then mysteriously faded away just weeks before ERHC announced they had won the block. There's more to all of this than we know.

"February 21, 2012 08:30 AM Eastern Standard Time


HOUSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--CAMAC Energy Inc. (NYSE Amex: CAK), a U.S.-based energy company engaged in the exploration, development and production of oil and gas, today announced that it has entered into a heads of agreement (the “Heads of Agreement”) with the Kenyan Ministry of Energy for the award of three exploration blocks: l1A L1B, and L16 (“the Blocks”). Block 11A is an onshore block covering 10,913 square kilometers in northwest Kenya near the Ugandan border. Block L1B is an onshore block covering 12,197 square kilometers in eastern Kenya on the Somali border. Block L16 covers 1,699 square kilometers onshore and 89 square kilometers offshore on Kenya’s southeast coast. CAMAC Energy will be the operator with 90% interest in the Blocks. The Government of Kenya will be carried at 10% through declaration of commerciality and may thereafter elect to participate up to 10%. The Heads of Agreement sets forth the negotiated major fiscal terms and work program for the Blocks, and the award is subject to negotiation and signing of formal Production Sharing Contracts (“the PSCs”) for the Blocks within the next 30 days and approval by the Minster of Energy and the Board of Directors of CAMAC Energy, as well as payment of requisite signature bonuses upon signing.


“contingent resources in this press release in reference to certain oil and gas interests held by Tullow Oil plc, which the SEC’s guidelines do not permit us to include in our filings with the SEC.”

Block 11A is in the Lotikipi rift basin adjacent to four blocks operated by Tullow Oil plc (LSE:TLW): Blocks 10A, 10BA, 10BB, and 13T. Tullow recently announced the spudding of the Ngamia-1 well on Block 10BB. The well is testing a prospect similar to oil prospects in Tullow’s Lake Albert Rift Basin, where over 1 billion barrels of contingent resources have been discovered. Block L1B is located in the Lamu Basin to the south of Blocks 3A and 3B, both operated by Vanoil Energy Limited (TSX.V:VEL). Block L16 is also in the Lamu Basin adjacent in the east to Block L8 and in the south to Block L9, operated by Apache Corporation (NYSE: APA) and Ophir Energy plc (LSE: PHR), respectively.

Chairman and CEO Dr. Kase Lawal commented, “We are exceptionally pleased to have the opportunity to be awarded three exploration blocks in Kenya. Not only is Kenya home to some of East Africa’s most prospective basins, but the awarded Blocks are adjacent to those owned by proven explorers Tullow, Apache, and Ophir. Furthermore, with this agreement CAMAC Energy will enter East Africa on its preferred terms as operator with the ability to control the pace of exploration. Once again, as with our previous announcement on Gambia, we are continuing to validate our strategy of acquiring prime frontier exploration acreage throughout the continent.”"

CAMAC-Energy-Signs-Heads-Agreement-Award-Exploration

I hope you are right, because whenever this company and Keeney have gone silent and evasive, it doesn't work out well for shareholders... it doesn't work out well at all.

I'm tired of the deception, they need to communicate *clearly* with shareholders. Either management isn't sharing the info or Keeney is really horrible at his job. Hiding the truth until they lock the doors and turn out the lights would be illegal.

So I sit and wait, wondering if they are that stupid. I don't *think* they are, but everything they have done lately seems to be aimed at avoiding the truth.

I'm tired of it. New management would bring new hope, because these guys just don't get it. They *know* shareholders are fed up, and they *know* why... the lack of communication, yet they put out that insulting *nothing* of an update.

They are either trying to kill the market for the company's shares for Offor's benefit (read: massively underpriced bail out) or they are completely and totally incompetent.

I don't like either choice.

I agree that the update was pathetic. Why this company *chooses* to leave its shareholders guessing is unprofessional.

Contingencies? B.S.

For me there are only 2 believable scenarios; they simply can't afford the study and are trying to raise funds, or they are stalling and hoping to get a partner signed so they won't have to pay at all. "Contingencies" is nothing more than unprofessional misdirection to avoid telling the truth.

Mr. Ntephe, its long past time for you to grow up into a real leader and tell your shareholders what is really going on, with details.

It's really sad that the BOD continues to let Ntephe get away with this crap. They are suppose to have fiduciary responsibilities to look out for all shareholders.

It's time for a real CEO.

"too small for the big ones"

The big boys like to say it's too small to be commercial for us. Read between the lines... it's too small to cover our bloated overhead. The IOC's need to find oil that is cheaper to produce?

There is NO oil cheaper to produce than oil that has already been discovered. Let them turn their backs on the JDZ and then charge a stiff premium when they want into ERHC's future Kenya discoveries. If they want to play hardball trying to snuff the locals out of the JDZ, play hardball with them in Kenya... post discoveries.

I'd love to see a mid level successful company like Tullow for Kenya... prove up as much as possible, and then set the price way up in the stratosphere to show thanks for how they treated the locals in the JDZ.

Do I sound bitter? LOL!

You "still" don't get it?

How did you get your license back, that's awesome! Did Ohio reinstate you or were you granted a license in another state?

"Maybe the water will become worth a small fortune"

No doubt it will, and if oil is discovered in the area that water can be used to produce oil and a MUCH larger fortune.

Having plenty of water around a producing field is extremely helpful.

Hmmm, a huge water discovery near ERHC's block... a pipeline being built right through ERHC's block... the path to commercial oil keeps getting cheaper and cheaper. If ERHC can hit a significant discovery it could exceed all of our hopes... fingers crossed.

I see that kingpin has pointed you to the discussion about the H2O discovery... now all we need is motivated partner and a good sized discovery.

Agreed. ERHE traded shares today...

Here is a time and sales report from freerealtime.com



Note two things...

228,203 shares traded, which agrees with your Scottrade number, and...

... the market switched from OBB to OTO reflecting the move to the OTCQB.

I-hub apparently doesn't have a feed from the OTCQB market that ERHC is now quoted on, so we saw zero all day.

A non-event.

I agree with you. He over-played his hand and exposed himself, but nobody on any board anywhere has addressed the elephant in the room...

Why is he doing it?

1.) Is he a retail penny player manipulating message boards as he accumulates?

2.) Is he is working on behalf of a company interested in ERHC at the lowest possible price?

3.) Or is he just a whack-job that gets some kind of satisfaction out of annoying people?

He puts more time into posting on I-hub than most, so what is the ROI on that commitment?

Yep.

And?

""Meanwhile, Bell Geospace will follow Adamantine’s survey with a similar sweep for neighbouring operator ERHC Energy, a Nigerian-run Houston explorer that holds 100% of contiguous Block-11A — a cheaper, joint survey had been mooted but failed to gain traction."

The FTG and LOI could be completely separate and not a contingency, I don't know. That's why I made sure to say "I don't think", "I don't know", and "IMO".

It's my opinion at this point based on what I see happening.

I've tempered my timeline expectations a little. I can't think of any reason that ERHC wouldn't announce the commencement of the FTG study, so I don't think it has started yet. I don't know what kind of planning goes into choosing the flight lines and I don't know what kind of equipment prep/recalibration is required prior to flying. So I don't know if ERHC is delaying, Bell Geo is delaying, or there is simply work to be done before the shoot.

If the FTG hasn't started (likely) then the negotiations under the LOI are also likely on hold (IMO). If that's the case then we're looking at 6-8 weeks for FTG results, sometime in November. A lot depends on how much of the block they are covering.

If a farm-in is dependent on the FTG results, assuming they are positive, only then will serious negotiations begin under the LOI.

That leads me to think that a farm-in isn't likely until after the 1st of the year, maybe not until spring.

It's time to hunker down and wait.

Thuo gets credit for convincing Tullow to take the risk. He did. They did. And they hit a pot of gold.

I'm very happy he works for ERHC with his excellent credentials and knowledge of the area. It served Tullow very well.